mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

[mpm]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 3:26:32 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

Do they make gas powered semi-autos?
>

Sort of.

There is thing called gas piston technology in several popular AR-15 rifles.
(as opposed to direct impingement).

Link: https://info.stagarms.com/blog/bid/297530/The-difference-between-Gas-Piston-and-Direct-Impingement-technology-for-an-AR-15

 

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 12:25:47 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 4:52:56 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
On 24/03/2020 00:46, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 4:43:12 PM UTC-4,
bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56



RL

That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly
immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of
susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that
each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within
just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of
replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much
about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the
fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is
relatively short, 99% of these people don't require
hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated.
His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist
looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his
stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the
chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction.

The exponential model ignores people's limited social networks, and
assumes they will continue to infect new people at the same rate, ad
infinitum.

But only 20% of the Diamond Princess' sardines got WuFlu,
inconsistent with simple exponential growth. And only 3% of Wuhan's
population were ultimately infected.

I think you will find that the Diamond Princess figures are pretty much
exactly consistent with exponential growth in a finite population.
Daily increase in cases is running at approximately 1.4x so.

1.4^20 ~ 840

They were starting to get to the point where the virus transmission was
being partly limited by the number of uninfected people remaining on the
ship. As the proportion p that have had the virus increases a factor of
(1-p) multiplies the exponent in the later stages.

Wiki's article on this says the Diamond Princess was more complicated
than I realized -- new cases were being continually removed from the
plague ship, for one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_cruise_ships#Diamond_Princess


Also, the plain exponential model assumes people won't change their
behaviors.

That seems a pretty good assumption to me. People were out in the spring
sunshine doing everything they could to spread the virus last weekend

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-51995945/coronavirus-people-urged-to-stay-away-from-snowdonia

Many beauty spots had their busiest day ever. Utter madness!

Londoners fled to their second homes in the country bringing the virus.

My area's normally-busy streets have been empty the last two weeks.
No trucks, no workmen, no construction. Children don't play, cars
are rare, restaurants and other businesses are closed. Schools are
closed. Meetings cancelled. Events rescheduled for August.

The still-open businesses cut their hours, grim-faced employees
patrolling with bleach-spray phasers, nuking suspicious surfaces.

I went for a walk yesterday & saw two neighbors talking from opposite
sides of the street, keeping their distance. They looked afraid.

I'd count that as "people changing their behavior."

I found this report useful-- Active Monitoring of Persons Exposed to
Patients with Confirmed COVID-19 — United States, January–February
2020
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6909e1.htm?s_cid=mm6909e1_w

quote> Among the first 10 patients with travel-related confirmed
COVID-19 reported in the United States, a total of 445 persons ...
who had close contact with one of the 10 patients on or after the
date of the patient’s symptom onset were identified...

US testing is complete crap and unreliable. The UK has done more tests
to date than the entire of the USA (we are way behind best practice).

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

The U.K.'s tactics got the U.K. a massive dose of WuFlu. Prompt
travel restrictions helped the U.S. tremendously -- that got us
a very-valuable few weeks compared to the U.K. -- but it's here
and of course it will spread.

Who cares about testing? That didn't save a single country. The
data will be useful after. But you can't test your way out of a
plague.

Corona and rhinoviruses also cause the common cold. We've never
stopped either virus. Nor have we ever tracked one in real-time
on social media, for that matter.

Cheers,
James Arthur

This is amazing if true:

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?segmentId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9

After half the population has has it, you're not going to get many
more doublings.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[Lasse Langwadt Christense]

tirsdag den 24. marts 2020 kl. 22.11.30 UTC+1 skrev mpm:

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 3:26:32 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

Do they make gas powered semi-autos?


Sort of.

There is thing called gas piston technology in several popular AR-15 rifles.
(as opposed to direct impingement).

Link: https://info.stagarms.com/blog/bid/297530/The-difference-between-Gas-Piston-and-Direct-Impingement-technology-for-an-AR-15

then all firearms are gas powered, they accelerate a projectile using gas
generated by burning a propellant

 

[Rick C]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 6:15:26 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 12:25:47 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 4:52:56 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
On 24/03/2020 00:46, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 4:43:12 PM UTC-4,
bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56



RL

That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly
immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of
susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that
each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within
just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of
replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much
about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the
fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is
relatively short, 99% of these people don't require
hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated.
His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist
looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his
stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the
chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction.

The exponential model ignores people's limited social networks, and
assumes they will continue to infect new people at the same rate, ad
infinitum.

But only 20% of the Diamond Princess' sardines got WuFlu,
inconsistent with simple exponential growth. And only 3% of Wuhan's
population were ultimately infected.

I think you will find that the Diamond Princess figures are pretty much
exactly consistent with exponential growth in a finite population.
Daily increase in cases is running at approximately 1.4x so.

1.4^20 ~ 840

They were starting to get to the point where the virus transmission was
being partly limited by the number of uninfected people remaining on the
ship. As the proportion p that have had the virus increases a factor of
(1-p) multiplies the exponent in the later stages.

Wiki's article on this says the Diamond Princess was more complicated
than I realized -- new cases were being continually removed from the
plague ship, for one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_cruise_ships#Diamond_Princess


Also, the plain exponential model assumes people won't change their
behaviors.

That seems a pretty good assumption to me. People were out in the spring
sunshine doing everything they could to spread the virus last weekend

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-51995945/coronavirus-people-urged-to-stay-away-from-snowdonia

Many beauty spots had their busiest day ever. Utter madness!

Londoners fled to their second homes in the country bringing the virus..

My area's normally-busy streets have been empty the last two weeks.
No trucks, no workmen, no construction. Children don't play, cars
are rare, restaurants and other businesses are closed. Schools are
closed. Meetings cancelled. Events rescheduled for August.

The still-open businesses cut their hours, grim-faced employees
patrolling with bleach-spray phasers, nuking suspicious surfaces.

I went for a walk yesterday & saw two neighbors talking from opposite
sides of the street, keeping their distance. They looked afraid.

I'd count that as "people changing their behavior."

I found this report useful-- Active Monitoring of Persons Exposed to
Patients with Confirmed COVID-19 — United States, January–February
2020
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6909e1.htm?s_cid=mm6909e1_w

quote> Among the first 10 patients with travel-related confirmed
COVID-19 reported in the United States, a total of 445 persons ...
who had close contact with one of the 10 patients on or after the
date of the patient’s symptom onset were identified...

US testing is complete crap and unreliable. The UK has done more tests
to date than the entire of the USA (we are way behind best practice).

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

The U.K.'s tactics got the U.K. a massive dose of WuFlu. Prompt
travel restrictions helped the U.S. tremendously -- that got us
a very-valuable few weeks compared to the U.K. -- but it's here
and of course it will spread.

Who cares about testing? That didn't save a single country. The
data will be useful after. But you can't test your way out of a
plague.

Corona and rhinoviruses also cause the common cold. We've never
stopped either virus. Nor have we ever tracked one in real-time
on social media, for that matter.

Cheers,
James Arthur

This is amazing if true:

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?segmentId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9

After half the population has has it, you're not going to get many
more doublings.

"Tis true, tis pity. And pity tis, tis true."

However, that's not a very useful consideration even if it is true. A early lock down would have greatly reduced the present state of infections in the severely infected countries which are now looking at overwhelmed hospitals. That's the numbers to focus on.

We have reached the point of our healthcare systems being affected and we can't mitigate that. But if this Oxford study is not right, then continuing the lock down and strengthening it will result in less impact on our healthcare systems and potentially lives saved. That is very obvious.

The new data for today is not up yet. We'll see if any impact is visible in today's numbers.

--

Rick C.

-+-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 6:15:26 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 12:25:47 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 4:52:56 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
On 24/03/2020 00:46, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
The exponential model ignores people's limited social networks, and
assumes they will continue to infect new people at the same rate, ad
infinitum.

But only 20% of the Diamond Princess' sardines got WuFlu,
inconsistent with simple exponential growth. And only 3% of Wuhan's
population were ultimately infected.

I think you will find that the Diamond Princess figures are pretty much
exactly consistent with exponential growth in a finite population.
Daily increase in cases is running at approximately 1.4x so.

1.4^20 ~ 840

They were starting to get to the point where the virus transmission was
being partly limited by the number of uninfected people remaining on the
ship. As the proportion p that have had the virus increases a factor of
(1-p) multiplies the exponent in the later stages.

Wiki's article on this says the Diamond Princess was more complicated
than I realized -- new cases were being continually removed from the
plague ship, for one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_cruise_ships#Diamond_Princess


Also, the plain exponential model assumes people won't change their
behaviors.

That seems a pretty good assumption to me. People were out in the spring
sunshine doing everything they could to spread the virus last weekend

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-51995945/coronavirus-people-urged-to-stay-away-from-snowdonia

Many beauty spots had their busiest day ever. Utter madness!

Londoners fled to their second homes in the country bringing the virus..

My area's normally-busy streets have been empty the last two weeks.
No trucks, no workmen, no construction. Children don't play, cars
are rare, restaurants and other businesses are closed. Schools are
closed. Meetings cancelled. Events rescheduled for August.

The still-open businesses cut their hours, grim-faced employees
patrolling with bleach-spray phasers, nuking suspicious surfaces.

I went for a walk yesterday & saw two neighbors talking from opposite
sides of the street, keeping their distance. They looked afraid.

I'd count that as "people changing their behavior."

I found this report useful-- Active Monitoring of Persons Exposed to
Patients with Confirmed COVID-19 — United States, January–February
2020
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6909e1.htm?s_cid=mm6909e1_w

quote> Among the first 10 patients with travel-related confirmed
COVID-19 reported in the United States, a total of 445 persons ...
who had close contact with one of the 10 patients on or after the
date of the patient’s symptom onset were identified...

US testing is complete crap and unreliable. The UK has done more tests
to date than the entire of the USA (we are way behind best practice).

The U.K.'s tactics got the U.K. a massive dose of WuFlu. Prompt
travel restrictions helped the U.S. tremendously -- that got us
a very-valuable few weeks compared to the U.K. -- but it's here
and of course it will spread.

Who cares about testing? That didn't save a single country. The
data will be useful after. But you can't test your way out of a
plague.

Corona and rhinoviruses also cause the common cold. We've never
stopped either virus. Nor have we ever tracked one in real-time
on social media, for that matter.

This is amazing if true:

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?segmentId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9

After half the population has has it, you're not going to get many
more doublings.

Amazing, and definitely hysteria-worthy -- once that many people have
it it'll accelerate to tripling and quadrupling!

We'll need more toilet paper. Lots more.

<ducking for cover>,
James

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 6:25:54 AM UTC+11, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 4:52:56 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
On 24/03/2020 00:46, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 4:43:12 PM UTC-4,
bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

<snip>

Wiki's article on this says the Diamond Princess was more complicated
than I realized -- new cases were being continually removed from the
plague ship, for one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_cruise_ships#Diamond_Princess

Every news report I saw mentioned that - they'd tell you how many people had been carted off to a Japanese hospital for treatment.

It's well known that Covid-19 victims infect people before they become symptomatic.

Also, the plain exponential model assumes people won't change their
behaviors.

That seems a pretty good assumption to me. People were out in the spring
sunshine doing everything they could to spread the virus last weekend

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-51995945/coronavirus-people-urged-to-stay-away-from-snowdonia

Many beauty spots had their busiest day ever. Utter madness!

Londoners fled to their second homes in the country bringing the virus.

My area's normally-busy streets have been empty the last two weeks.
No trucks, no workmen, no construction. Children don't play, cars
are rare, restaurants and other businesses are closed. Schools are
closed. Meetings cancelled. Events rescheduled for August.

The still-open businesses cut their hours, grim-faced employees
patrolling with bleach-spray phasers, nuking suspicious surfaces.

I went for a walk yesterday & saw two neighbors talking from opposite
sides of the street, keeping their distance. They looked afraid.

I'd count that as "people changing their behavior."

The question is are they changing it enough, and are enough people changing their behaviour? In Australia the party-going 20-30-year-old kept on heading off to the beach, and tend to dominate the numbers of the newly infected..

I found this report useful-- Active Monitoring of Persons Exposed to
Patients with Confirmed COVID-19 — United States, January–February
2020
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6909e1.htm?s_cid=mm6909e1_w

quote> Among the first 10 patients with travel-related confirmed
COVID-19 reported in the United States, a total of 445 persons ...
who had close contact with one of the 10 patients on or after the
date of the patient’s symptom onset were identified...

US testing is complete crap and unreliable. The UK has done more tests
to date than the entire of the USA (we are way behind best practice).

The U.K.'s tactics got the U.K. a massive dose of WuFlu. Prompt
travel restrictions helped the U.S. tremendously -- that got us
a very-valuable few weeks compared to the U.K. -- but it's here
and of course it will spread.

Who cares about testing? That didn't save a single country. The
data will be useful after. But you can't test your way out of a
plague.

Corona and rhinoviruses also cause the common cold. We've never
stopped either virus. Nor have we ever tracked one in real-time
on social media, for that matter.

Neither of them kill anything like as many of the people they infect, so nobody has been motivated to damage the economy by imposing enough social isolation to do it.

Wuhan managed it with about two months of social isolation. As we get better at setting up social isolation we may be able to get R0 into the 0.1 range or lower, which would eliminate the infection in fewer cycles of infection.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 5:33:54 AM UTC+11, mpm wrote:

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 11:34:28 AM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 11:08:56 AM UTC-4, legg wrote:
Per capita comparisons are interestion.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 50ppm range for the country as a whole, at the
end of present containment excercises. The resources of
the rest of the country were applied in this exercise.

In Italy, Spain and Iceland, it's over 1000ppm, at present,
without containment.

China would have had to have had 20 Wuhans, to match this.

So, the US and other countries, currently at a 3day doubling
rate of detection, should be ready for the 20x Wuhan effect
on it's resources, as no containment is possible at this
late date.

Every case doesn't need to be detected - that's just an
indicator of the development.

China locked down the affected cities in total. Here in the US we are doing a half-ass approach to "social distancing" which so far has not been measurably effective at all.

I don't believe it is too late to contain this virus, but we are literally at the cusp. If we were to lock down the affected areas of the country in total we might be able to prevent a Wuhan collapse of our medical system. But for that requires literally action right now. We are at the point where if all new infections were prevented we will still be testing the limits of the medical systems in many areas of the country.

So yeah, you are most likely right, containment is not possible.

In lieu of full lock down the only other way to contain this virus is the Vo approach, massive testing to isolate anyone with the virus. However, we already know that isn't possible from lack of test capability.

You're getting there.... just slowly.

Eventually, you're going to realize that the government isn't equipped to handle this. At best, they'll play catch-up, too late and after-the-fact for all those who died.

The Chinese government was equipped to handle it, and the US government knew what was going on before they started to have to handle it.

The Trump factor does get in the way of the US response, and more people will die than should have, but it's unlikely that even Trump can engineer a less effective response than Italy managed.

Starting to sound a lot like one of the arguments for gun-ownership (for self-protection), when you realize the police are only ten minutes away, but the need is NOW. Sound vaguely familiar yet?

That's not saying a gun will kill the virus.
But if there's rioting and lawlessness, I don't see the benefit in waiting around for industry to supply enough batons and police vehicles to keep the peace on a massive scale (if it comes to that - hopefully it won't)

I guess I'm just saying: Don't rely on the government to protect you.

Your capacity to protect yourself against a virus epidemic is so much better than anything any government could offer. You could also single-handedly repel a Russian invasion or a Mafia take-over.

> They truly aren't up to the task, as evidenced by the ongoing outbreak.

Some governments have done a lot better. Electing a clown like Trump wasn't a good move.

> Or, if you affirmatively choose to rely on them, at least be prepared for a let down or two.

Always good advice. More necessary when you chose to rely on people like Trump and Pence.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[mpm]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 9:07:21 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 5:33:54 AM UTC+11, mpm wrote:

Or, if you affirmatively choose to rely on them, at least be prepared for a let down or two.

Always good advice. More necessary when you chose to rely on people like Trump and Pence.

Perhaps, but even more so if you rely on people like Hillary and Kaine!

 

[mpm]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 6:23:51 PM UTC-4, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:

then all firearms are gas powered, they accelerate a projectile using gas
generated by burning a propellant

I stand corrected.
Didn't even think of that aspect.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 1:39:08 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 10:25:24 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 12:32:48 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:11:20 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 9:17:53 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail..com wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 5:35:53 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 13:43:08 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL

That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is relatively short, 99% of these people don't require hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated. His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction.

Sure, you can have all sorts of fun with a math model. Or a
spreadsheet. But the chloroquine might help, seems to help.

Flu viruses tend to mutate to be less lethal. It's not in their
interest to quickly kill the hosts that spread them.

But what impresses me is that an entire planet worth of viruses mutate
together. No one virus mutates and passes the less-lethal trend to its
offspring.

The people who study these things think this one we have now is some kind of hybrid of two wild strain corona viruses that exist naturally in nature. This would strengthen the theory that mixing up the animals in wild meat markets created the virus. Probably a bat/pangolin merger, or interspecies zoonosis.

Covid-19 is 96% identical with the ancestral bat corona virus. How this hydbridisation between what would have to be two closely related viruses might have happened needs to be discussed - they'd both have had to infected the same cell at the same time for any RNA mixing to have occurred.

The human genome is a 98% match with that of the common mouse.

And enormously larger.

Any other questions?

What made you think that this might be of any relevance?

It's sarcasm in response to your statement "How this hydbridisation between what would have to be two closely related viruses might have happened needs to be discussed - they'd both have had to infected the same cell at the same time for any RNA mixing to have occurred."

There are two ways in which a new strain of an RNA virus develops: 1) mutation and 2) recombination.

Mutation refers to an error in the transcription of the RNA into DNA for integration into the host cell nucleus. Corona has been found to be fairly stable in this regard.

Recombination is when two separate strains have infected the same host cell, both end up integrating DNA into the host nucleus simultaneously, causing progeny with mixed RNA from the two different strains. This becomes more likely as you mix up infected animals in close proximity as in those "wet" wild meat animal markets. Virologists are able to do very accurate PCRs on the resulting virus and identify the gene mixing exactly, and not just look at percentage overlaps of gene sequences. You can end up with very bad results like, and this really a mainly in this case, a brand new strain that now infects humans even though the two parent strains either did not infect humans or were harmless.

You might apprise yourself of the rudiments of the basic science

Since what you have just said is pretty exactly what I said, you haven't actually pointed out any difference in our apreciations of the basic science.

> before you make more statements as crazy as your vaccine development hysteria.

There's nothing "hysterical" about pointing out that a number of people are looking at new ways of creating vaccines, particularly when the one that proposes inject DNA to get our cells to synthesise viral proteins for our immune system to generate antibodies too has already been injected in it's first human guinea pig.

Your claim that the only we would get get a working vaccine is via one of the traditonal routes may not be hystrical but it's clearly irrational.

Quite why it might have seemed sensible to hypothesise isn't made clear either.

Fred isn't good at getting hold of reliable data. The Wuhan data listed 20% of those infected as being seriously or critically ill so his 99% not requiring hospitalisation is a very odd figure.

What's not reliable is the Chinese data. It is CCP data and therefore full of inconsistencies and fabrications.

This is claimed from time to time. The claim even less reliable than the Chinese data - basically a conspiracy theory fabrication.

It's not conspiracy theory, the CCP are compulsive liars even when there's nothing to cover up. No point in going over the ocean of history that justifies this characterization.

Particularly when it doesn't actually exist.

"As physicians and researchers have seen since the start of the outbreak, many infected people never become sick. As few as 14% of people in Wuhan with early coronavirus infections were being detected, said epidemiologist Jeffrey Shaman of the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, who led a study published on Monday in Science on undocumented coronavirus infections."

They got better a picking them out as the cases accumulated.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/lower-coronavirus-death-rate-estimates/

Jeffrey Sharman isn't listed as an author on the paper you seem to be relying on.

Not yet peer-reviewed and dated February 13, 2020, written by people a rather long way away from the actual patients

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7#author-information

is the published version that came out on the 19th March.

It seems to drag in a lot of non-CCP data, and makes it clear that it is based on a lot of assumptions (which are spelled out).

Epidemiological estimates tend to be logarithmic. It's not physical chemistry. There is too much variability to begin to formulate anything approaching the status of a scientific "rule."

Twaddle.

> There are other scarier developments unfolding. Something called antibody-dependent (disease) enhancement ADE is a big one, and a studied factor in the lethality of MERS, another corona virus.

Except that Covid-19 isn't MERS, and a lot less lethal.

> This thing is going to be around for the rest of our lives.

Probably.

> Life will NEVER return to normal,

It will as soon as we get an effective vaccine.

> and 1) people lose immunity after about a year or so, and

How could anybody possibly know that? The first recognised patient got the disease on the 1st December 2019, so nobody has been immune for longer than four months. Most people retain immunity to most diseases for life - RNA viruses mutate fast enough that this doesn't always help.

> 2) second time around infection /can/ be much worse due to this ADE phenomenon, and of course damage accumulated from a previous infection.

Again, how could you possibly know that? Hystericak speculation isn't actually evidence, and your grasp of what might be credible seems to have evaporated entirely.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 17:04:18 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 6:15:26 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 12:25:47 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 4:52:56 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
On 24/03/2020 00:46, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
The exponential model ignores people's limited social networks, and
assumes they will continue to infect new people at the same rate, ad
infinitum.

But only 20% of the Diamond Princess' sardines got WuFlu,
inconsistent with simple exponential growth. And only 3% of Wuhan's
population were ultimately infected.

I think you will find that the Diamond Princess figures are pretty much
exactly consistent with exponential growth in a finite population.
Daily increase in cases is running at approximately 1.4x so.

1.4^20 ~ 840

They were starting to get to the point where the virus transmission was
being partly limited by the number of uninfected people remaining on the
ship. As the proportion p that have had the virus increases a factor of
(1-p) multiplies the exponent in the later stages.

Wiki's article on this says the Diamond Princess was more complicated
than I realized -- new cases were being continually removed from the
plague ship, for one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_cruise_ships#Diamond_Princess


Also, the plain exponential model assumes people won't change their
behaviors.

That seems a pretty good assumption to me. People were out in the spring
sunshine doing everything they could to spread the virus last weekend

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-51995945/coronavirus-people-urged-to-stay-away-from-snowdonia

Many beauty spots had their busiest day ever. Utter madness!

Londoners fled to their second homes in the country bringing the virus.

My area's normally-busy streets have been empty the last two weeks.
No trucks, no workmen, no construction. Children don't play, cars
are rare, restaurants and other businesses are closed. Schools are
closed. Meetings cancelled. Events rescheduled for August.

The still-open businesses cut their hours, grim-faced employees
patrolling with bleach-spray phasers, nuking suspicious surfaces.

I went for a walk yesterday & saw two neighbors talking from opposite
sides of the street, keeping their distance. They looked afraid.

I'd count that as "people changing their behavior."

I found this report useful-- Active Monitoring of Persons Exposed to
Patients with Confirmed COVID-19 — United States, January–February
2020
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6909e1.htm?s_cid=mm6909e1_w

quote> Among the first 10 patients with travel-related confirmed
COVID-19 reported in the United States, a total of 445 persons ...
who had close contact with one of the 10 patients on or after the
date of the patient’s symptom onset were identified...

US testing is complete crap and unreliable. The UK has done more tests
to date than the entire of the USA (we are way behind best practice).

The U.K.'s tactics got the U.K. a massive dose of WuFlu. Prompt
travel restrictions helped the U.S. tremendously -- that got us
a very-valuable few weeks compared to the U.K. -- but it's here
and of course it will spread.

Who cares about testing? That didn't save a single country. The
data will be useful after. But you can't test your way out of a
plague.

Corona and rhinoviruses also cause the common cold. We've never
stopped either virus. Nor have we ever tracked one in real-time
on social media, for that matter.

This is amazing if true:

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?segmentId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9

After half the population has has it, you're not going to get many
more doublings.

Amazing, and definitely hysteria-worthy -- once that many people have
it it'll accelerate to tripling and quadrupling!

We'll need more toilet paper. Lots more.

ducking for cover>,
James

No, we just need more people.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

Lasse Langwadt Christensen <langwadt@fonz.dk> wrote in
news:20e4eb01-504c-4701-96be-9f1e2d138853@googlegroups.com:

tirsdag den 24. marts 2020 kl. 22.11.30 UTC+1 skrev mpm:
On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 3:26:32 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

Do they make gas powered semi-autos?


Sort of.

There is thing called gas piston technology in several popular
AR-15 rifles. (as opposed to direct impingement).

Link:
https://info.stagarms.com/blog/bid/297530/The-difference-between-G
as-Piston-and-Direct-Impingement-technology-for-an-AR-15

then all firearms are gas powered, they accelerate a projectile
using gas generated by burning a propellant

An "air rifle" or "pellet gun" used compressed air in a quick
release reserve chamber to power a pellet up the barrel and out.
They can get up to some pretty quick muzzle velocities.

"firearm" refers to a powder actuated device, which is a gun that
relies on the burn of a specific "load" of flammable or "explosive"
propellant, with originally black powder now 'smokeless powder' "gun
powder" for the load. The projectile is driven by the gas pressure
release of the burn of the propellant load.

So, a tennis ball, can and lighter fluid is not a firearm.

The method by with a semi-auto or automatic repeating fire gun is
its "action", and that is by blowback or gas operation, both
utilizing energy of the exploding propellant load. One relying on
the inertia the projectile's mass presents at the moment of firing to
send the shell casing back firmly while said projectile is traversing
out the barrel all in the same instant(s).

Not many gas operated pistols. A: no fucking reason for it. B:
bulky. C: no fucking reason for it. d: leaky, gotta cleam the gun
all the time... yada yada E: they have made them for show look on
youtube

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 1:40:41 PM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 17:04:18 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 6:15:26 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 12:25:47 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 4:52:56 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
On 24/03/2020 00:46, dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:
The exponential model ignores people's limited social networks, and
assumes they will continue to infect new people at the same rate, ad
infinitum.

But only 20% of the Diamond Princess' sardines got WuFlu,
inconsistent with simple exponential growth. And only 3% of Wuhan's
population were ultimately infected.

I think you will find that the Diamond Princess figures are pretty much
exactly consistent with exponential growth in a finite population.
Daily increase in cases is running at approximately 1.4x so.

1.4^20 ~ 840

They were starting to get to the point where the virus transmission was
being partly limited by the number of uninfected people remaining on the
ship. As the proportion p that have had the virus increases a factor of
(1-p) multiplies the exponent in the later stages.

Wiki's article on this says the Diamond Princess was more complicated
than I realized -- new cases were being continually removed from the
plague ship, for one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_cruise_ships#Diamond_Princess


Also, the plain exponential model assumes people won't change their
behaviors.

That seems a pretty good assumption to me. People were out in the spring
sunshine doing everything they could to spread the virus last weekend

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-51995945/coronavirus-people-urged-to-stay-away-from-snowdonia

Many beauty spots had their busiest day ever. Utter madness!

Londoners fled to their second homes in the country bringing the virus.

My area's normally-busy streets have been empty the last two weeks.
No trucks, no workmen, no construction. Children don't play, cars
are rare, restaurants and other businesses are closed. Schools are
closed. Meetings cancelled. Events rescheduled for August.

The still-open businesses cut their hours, grim-faced employees
patrolling with bleach-spray phasers, nuking suspicious surfaces.

I went for a walk yesterday & saw two neighbors talking from opposite
sides of the street, keeping their distance. They looked afraid.

I'd count that as "people changing their behavior."

I found this report useful-- Active Monitoring of Persons Exposed to
Patients with Confirmed COVID-19 — United States, January–February
2020
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6909e1.htm?s_cid=mm6909e1_w

quote> Among the first 10 patients with travel-related confirmed
COVID-19 reported in the United States, a total of 445 persons ....
who had close contact with one of the 10 patients on or after the
date of the patient’s symptom onset were identified...

US testing is complete crap and unreliable. The UK has done more tests
to date than the entire of the USA (we are way behind best practice).

The U.K.'s tactics got the U.K. a massive dose of WuFlu. Prompt
travel restrictions helped the U.S. tremendously -- that got us
a very-valuable few weeks compared to the U.K. -- but it's here
and of course it will spread.

Who cares about testing? That didn't save a single country. The
data will be useful after. But you can't test your way out of a
plague.

Corona and rhinoviruses also cause the common cold. We've never
stopped either virus. Nor have we ever tracked one in real-time
on social media, for that matter.

This is amazing if true:

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?segmentId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9

After half the population has has it, you're not going to get many
more doublings.

Amazing, and definitely hysteria-worthy -- once that many people have
it it'll accelerate to tripling and quadrupling!

We'll need more toilet paper. Lots more.

ducking for cover>,

No, we just need more people.

When the current policy is producing a rapidly increasing - if so far fairly small - number of deaths.

If Trump can be confined to pontificating, and kept well away from the levers of power, you may be able to get the US into the kind of lockdown where each new infection infects less than one other person before they start to show symptoms and get bundled into isolation.

The idea that this is what you are aiming to do doesn't seem to be articulated all that often.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Lasse Langwadt Christense]

onsdag den 25. marts 2020 kl. 03.39.25 UTC+1 skrev DecadentLinux...@decadence.org:

Lasse Langwadt Christensen <langwadt@fonz.dk> wrote in
news:20e4eb01-504c-4701-96be-9f1e2d138853@googlegroups.com:

tirsdag den 24. marts 2020 kl. 22.11.30 UTC+1 skrev mpm:
On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 3:26:32 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

Do they make gas powered semi-autos?


Sort of.

There is thing called gas piston technology in several popular
AR-15 rifles. (as opposed to direct impingement).

Link:
https://info.stagarms.com/blog/bid/297530/The-difference-between-G
as-Piston-and-Direct-Impingement-technology-for-an-AR-15

then all firearms are gas powered, they accelerate a projectile
using gas generated by burning a propellant



An "air rifle" or "pellet gun" used compressed air in a quick
release reserve chamber to power a pellet up the barrel and out.
They can get up to some pretty quick muzzle velocities.

generally subsonic

"firearm" refers to a powder actuated device, which is a gun that
relies on the burn of a specific "load" of flammable or "explosive"
propellant, with originally black powder now 'smokeless powder' "gun
powder" for the load. The projectile is driven by the gas pressure
release of the burn of the propellant load.

So, a tennis ball, can and lighter fluid is not a firearm.

that is a definite maybe, it burns propellant so if it is intended
to be a weapon and not just fun it might be considered a firearm and
since it is more than 0.5" bore it would be a destructive device

 

Lasse Langwadt Christensen <langwadt@fonz.dk> wrote in
news:f003ad71-eb8f-40e0-a592-55ac5f76c3c0@googlegroups.com:

onsdag den 25. marts 2020 kl. 03.39.25 UTC+1 skrev
DecadentLinux...@decadence.org:
Lasse Langwadt Christensen <langwadt@fonz.dk> wrote in
news:20e4eb01-504c-4701-96be-9f1e2d138853@googlegroups.com:

tirsdag den 24. marts 2020 kl. 22.11.30 UTC+1 skrev mpm:
On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 3:26:32 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

Do they make gas powered semi-autos?


Sort of.

There is thing called gas piston technology in several popular
AR-15 rifles. (as opposed to direct impingement).

Link:
https://info.stagarms.com/blog/bid/297530/The-difference-betwee
n-G as-Piston-and-Direct-Impingement-technology-for-an-AR-15

then all firearms are gas powered, they accelerate a projectile
using gas generated by burning a propellant



An "air rifle" or "pellet gun" used compressed air in a quick
release reserve chamber to power a pellet up the barrel and out.
They can get up to some pretty quick muzzle velocities.


generally subsonic


"firearm" refers to a powder actuated device, which is a gun
that
relies on the burn of a specific "load" of flammable or
"explosive" propellant, with originally black powder now
'smokeless powder' "gun powder" for the load. The projectile is
driven by the gas pressure release of the burn of the propellant
load.

So, a tennis ball, can and lighter fluid is not a firearm.

that is a definite maybe, it burns propellant so if it is intended
to be a weapon and not just fun it might be considered a firearm
and since it is more than 0.5" bore it would be a destructive
device

That would make it a "firetoy" not a fireARM. If someone made a
tennis ball can 'gun' as a weapon, he should then use it on himself
while standing at the edge of a very tall building.

And a tennis ball is hardly "destructive".

There was a man a hundred yards up the road from our riverfront
trailer lot, and when the Delta Queen would come up or dow the river,
he would get out his little 1/2 bore black powder cannon and light it
off to get the Queen to start playing the caliope that sits at the
back of the historic paddle wheeler.

Well, that was not good enough for my brother. We took a 3 inch by
8 foot gas pipe, and welded a steel plate onto the bottom of it. We
would lean it up onto a picnic table pointed out over the river. He
would cut up two of the real, legacy railroad torpedos and drop them
in, and then drop one of the old, real, legacy M-80s from the '70s.
When that went off, it dwarfed the sound the old guy's cannon made,
and one could see an 8 foot flash come out of the already 8 foot long
barrel.

No permits required. No projectile. Not a gun.

It would fire a nice 3 inch red rubber ball shoved into the top
about a half mile up and out and over the Ohio river, all the way
into Kentucky about a quarter mile away.

 

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 8:51:21 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 1:39:08 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 10:25:24 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 12:32:48 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail..com wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:11:20 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 9:17:53 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 5:35:53 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 13:43:08 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL

That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is relatively short, 99% of these people don't require hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated. His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction.

Sure, you can have all sorts of fun with a math model. Or a
spreadsheet. But the chloroquine might help, seems to help.

Flu viruses tend to mutate to be less lethal. It's not in their
interest to quickly kill the hosts that spread them.

But what impresses me is that an entire planet worth of viruses mutate
together. No one virus mutates and passes the less-lethal trend to its
offspring.

The people who study these things think this one we have now is some kind of hybrid of two wild strain corona viruses that exist naturally in nature. This would strengthen the theory that mixing up the animals in wild meat markets created the virus. Probably a bat/pangolin merger, or interspecies zoonosis.

Covid-19 is 96% identical with the ancestral bat corona virus. How this hydbridisation between what would have to be two closely related viruses might have happened needs to be discussed - they'd both have had to infected the same cell at the same time for any RNA mixing to have occurred.

The human genome is a 98% match with that of the common mouse.

And enormously larger.

Any other questions?

What made you think that this might be of any relevance?

It's sarcasm in response to your statement "How this hydbridisation between what would have to be two closely related viruses might have happened needs to be discussed - they'd both have had to infected the same cell at the same time for any RNA mixing to have occurred."

There are two ways in which a new strain of an RNA virus develops: 1) mutation and 2) recombination.

Mutation refers to an error in the transcription of the RNA into DNA for integration into the host cell nucleus. Corona has been found to be fairly stable in this regard.

Recombination is when two separate strains have infected the same host cell, both end up integrating DNA into the host nucleus simultaneously, causing progeny with mixed RNA from the two different strains. This becomes more likely as you mix up infected animals in close proximity as in those "wet" wild meat animal markets. Virologists are able to do very accurate PCRs on the resulting virus and identify the gene mixing exactly, and not just look at percentage overlaps of gene sequences. You can end up with very bad results like, and this really a mainly in this case, a brand new strain that now infects humans even though the two parent strains either did not infect humans or were harmless.

You might apprise yourself of the rudiments of the basic science

Since what you have just said is pretty exactly what I said, you haven't actually pointed out any difference in our apreciations of the basic science.

before you make more statements as crazy as your vaccine development hysteria.

There's nothing "hysterical" about pointing out that a number of people are looking at new ways of creating vaccines, particularly when the one that proposes inject DNA to get our cells to synthesise viral proteins for our immune system to generate antibodies too has already been injected in it's first human guinea pig.

They don't "inject" DNA into our cells. They use an innocuous virus vector to do the "injecting." The headlined trials of the Moderna vaccine are using the rhinovirus. It's a class of vaccine known as a DNA vaccine. They have been in development for at least 25 years that I know of. How come you don't know that? And what makes you think the technology will suddenly be a uncharacteristically massive success just because we have this perceived crisis? You're becoming completely hysterical. he real world rarely to never offers happy endings.

Your claim that the only we would get get a working vaccine is via one of the traditonal routes may not be hystrical but it's clearly irrational.

I made no such claim. You're going loony.

Quite why it might have seemed sensible to hypothesise isn't made clear either.

Fred isn't good at getting hold of reliable data. The Wuhan data listed 20% of those infected as being seriously or critically ill so his 99% not requiring hospitalisation is a very odd figure.

What's not reliable is the Chinese data. It is CCP data and therefore full of inconsistencies and fabrications.

This is claimed from time to time. The claim even less reliable than the Chinese data - basically a conspiracy theory fabrication.

It's not conspiracy theory, the CCP are compulsive liars even when there's nothing to cover up. No point in going over the ocean of history that justifies this characterization.

Particularly when it doesn't actually exist.

"As physicians and researchers have seen since the start of the outbreak, many infected people never become sick. As few as 14% of people in Wuhan with early coronavirus infections were being detected, said epidemiologist Jeffrey Shaman of the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, who led a study published on Monday in Science on undocumented coronavirus infections."

They got better a picking them out as the cases accumulated.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/lower-coronavirus-death-rate-estimates/

Jeffrey Sharman isn't listed as an author on the paper you seem to be relying on.

Not yet peer-reviewed and dated February 13, 2020, written by people a rather long way away from the actual patients

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7#author-information

is the published version that came out on the 19th March.

It seems to drag in a lot of non-CCP data, and makes it clear that it is based on a lot of assumptions (which are spelled out).

Epidemiological estimates tend to be logarithmic. It's not physical chemistry. There is too much variability to begin to formulate anything approaching the status of a scientific "rule."

Twaddle.

Fact. Try upgrading your understanding of the science.

There are other scarier developments unfolding. Something called antibody-dependent (disease) enhancement ADE is a big one, and a studied factor in the lethality of MERS, another corona virus.

Except that Covid-19 isn't MERS, and a lot less lethal.

They're both corona virus, and CoViD-19 does in fact have nearly the same mortality for vulnerable people.

This thing is going to be around for the rest of our lives.

Probably.

Life will NEVER return to normal,

It will as soon as we get an effective vaccine.

and 1) people lose immunity after about a year or so, and

How could anybody possibly know that? The first recognised patient got the disease on the 1st December 2019, so nobody has been immune for longer than four months. Most people retain immunity to most diseases for life - RNA viruses mutate fast enough that this doesn't always help.

Virologists have been studying corona virii fr the past 50 years. They know quite a bit about them, and this was one their findings.

2) second time around infection /can/ be much worse due to this ADE phenomenon, and of course damage accumulated from a previous infection.

Again, how could you possibly know that? Hystericak speculation isn't actually evidence, and your grasp of what might be credible seems to have evaporated entirely.

Findings observed from a half century of dealing with these things.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[mpm]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 10:57:19 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

> If Trump can be confined to pontificating, and kept well away from the levers of power, you may be able to get the US into the kind of lockdown where each new infection infects less than one other person before they start to show symptoms and get bundled into isolation.

I was on a construction site this morning in South Florida.
There were at least 200+ construction workers present, and I really didn't see a whole lot of social distancing. A few (20%) were wearing at least some kind of face mask, and there were big bucket hand sanitizer dispensers at the main entrances to the site, but that's about it. (Broward County).

In short: Ripe conditions for Covid-19 spread.
If this is what constitutes "lock-down", we are screwed.

I should have taken a picture of the hand sanitizer dispensers: They were heavy-duty (designed for long term, many thousands of uses before refill needed). Manual operation - no batteries. Admittedly, overkill for an application like Walmart.

 

[mpm]

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 11:06:03 AM UTC-4,
There are guns that shoot tee-shirts into the crowds at concerts.
And some that shoot tennis balls.

I know that the ones that use a cartridge (ammo) are indeed classified as firearms and you still need to pass a background check to own one.

Also: And I originally thought this to be a bit weird, but I'll throw it out there in case some folks aren't aware:

There are some farm tractors that you start using a shotgun shell.
You put the shell in, and smack it with a hammer. The force of the propellant is what turns over the engine. (Later, I learned the same was true for certain aircraft.) Neither one however is considered a "firearm".

Something else, but it will have to wait. (Can't remember the name of it.)

 

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 11:06:38 AM UTC-7, mpm wrote:

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 10:57:19 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

If Trump can be confined to pontificating, and kept well away from the levers of power, you may be able to get the US into the kind of lockdown where each new infection infects less than one other person before they start to show symptoms and get bundled into isolation.

I was on a construction site this morning in South Florida.
There were at least 200+ construction workers present, and I really didn't see a whole lot of social distancing. A few (20%) were wearing at least some kind of face mask, and there were big bucket hand sanitizer dispensers at the main entrances to the site, but that's about it. (Broward County).

In short: Ripe conditions for Covid-19 spread.
If this is what constitutes "lock-down", we are screwed.

I should have taken a picture of the hand sanitizer dispensers: They were heavy-duty (designed for long term, many thousands of uses before refill needed). Manual operation - no batteries. Admittedly, overkill for an application like Walmart.

"New York City may close parks, playgrounds and some streets to reduce density in the latest effort to contain the virus, the governor said Wednesday. (3/24)"

You mean they still haven't done it?