mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 15:38:52 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL

There're only a few things that can kill off the entire human race: a massive high speed asteroid strike, a cataclysmic mantle eruption, and global warming, to name a few. The bio stuff doesn't come close.

We have, must have, enough genetic diversity that no single pathogen
can kill all of us. Species without that diversity are extinct.

There is some evidence that a majority of people can't get the C19
virus. And of the ones that do, half get no symptoms. But there are
lots of other viruses around to get us.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/22/influenza-update-23000-u-s-deaths-more-children-18-49-year-olds-hospitalized-than-during-2009-h1n1-pandemic/

"CDC estimates that so far this season [in the US] there have been at
least 38 million flu illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000
deaths from flu."

C19 has killed 414 in the US, last count, and no children. It's a bit
player so far.

With hundreds of different viruses around, presumably all growing
exponentially like neutrons in an atom bomb, it's impressive that
we've only had 38 million infections. We have more diversity than all
the viruses can muster.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

 

[noname]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL

thank you for this link
M

 

[Clifford Heath]

On 23/3/20 9:38 am, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
There're only a few things that can kill off the entire human race: a massive high speed asteroid strike, a cataclysmic mantle eruption, and global warming, to name a few. The bio stuff doesn't come close.

Death of the human race (loss of the genome) is not likely, not from
this, and not from climate change.

It's the loss of human civilisation that's at risk here.

Some argue that the USA never had it anyway, of course .
"straight from barbarism to decadence" or something like that, I recall.

CH

 

[mpm]

This just in from my sister-in-law (Belgrade, Serbia).
I'll have to paraphrase since it's a long email.

1) Persons over 65 prohibited from leaving their home.
2) From 5PM to 5AM, only people are the streets are police, Serbian army, and ER vehicles.
3) City streets washed with Chlorine every night.
4) Stores open: Grocery & pharmacies only. Shoppers allowed in one-by-one, long lines.
5) Entering shops: Must have gloves and facemasks, and keep 2 meter distance to all other people (in line or operating store)
6) Grocery stores are well-stocked. (Which I presume means, "well-stocked" for Serbia.)
7) Anyone with a salary or pension already received 16 pounds (her words) heavy package with basic food and hygienic products.
8) All schools closed for rest of the school year. Students returned home.
9) All transportation closed (buses, rail and air).
10) All external borders are closed.
11) Air Serbia still operating limited flights (to New York, Paris, Amsterdam, Moscow and Doha) to collect all Serbians who want to come home.
12) #11 to include Bosnians, Macedonians, Kosovars, Montenegrians and anyone else from the Balkans.
13) All health services are free (for Serbians, and all foreigners who step foot on the soil during the crisis).
14) All arrivals (regardless of citizenship: Mandatory 14 days quarantine in Army barracks.
15) Every night: People clap their hands on their balconies for 5 minutes in tribute to healthcare workers, and sing the national anthem.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 10:26:39 AM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 15:38:52 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

There're only a few things that can kill off the entire human race: a massive high speed asteroid strike, a cataclysmic mantle eruption, and global warming, to name a few. The bio stuff doesn't come close.

We have, must have, enough genetic diversity that no single pathogen
can kill all of us. Species without that diversity are extinct.

This is wishful thinking. Most of thespecies that ever existed are now extinct.

Genetic diversity helps, but it doesn't guarantee survival.

There is some evidence that a majority of people can't get the C19
virus.

Where ?

And of the ones that do, half get no symptoms. But there are
lots of other viruses around to get us.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/22/influenza-update-23000-u-s-deaths-more-children-18-49-year-olds-hospitalized-than-during-2009-h1n1-pandemic/

"CDC estimates that so far this season [in the US] there have been at
least 38 million flu illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000
deaths from flu."

C19 has killed 414 in the US, last count, and no children. It's a bit
player so far.

But with loads of potential to do a lot more damage - a fact that John Larkin seems to find it diffuicult to get his head around.

With hundreds of different viruses around, presumably all growing
exponentially like neutrons in an atom bomb, it's impressive that
we've only had 38 million infections. We have more diversity than all
the viruses can muster.

Our genetic diversity doesn't do us any good against new viruses. We do have a system that can cook up antibodies to any virus we know about (HIV excepted since it destroys the immune system). Sadly we have to be exposed to the virus - or a reasonable facsimile in a vaccine - before we can cook up the antibodies.

Covid-19 kills a couple of percent of the population who can't cook up the necessary antibodies fast enough. This capacity diminishes with age, and Covid-19 seems to kill about 10% of 70-80 year-olds, and 15% of people who are older than that.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:11:20 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 9:17:53 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 5:35:53 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 13:43:08 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL

That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is relatively short, 99% of these people don't require hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated. His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction.

Sure, you can have all sorts of fun with a math model. Or a
spreadsheet. But the chloroquine might help, seems to help.

Flu viruses tend to mutate to be less lethal. It's not in their
interest to quickly kill the hosts that spread them.

But what impresses me is that an entire planet worth of viruses mutate
together. No one virus mutates and passes the less-lethal trend to its
offspring.

The people who study these things think this one we have now is some kind of hybrid of two wild strain corona viruses that exist naturally in nature. This would strengthen the theory that mixing up the animals in wild meat markets created the virus. Probably a bat/pangolin merger, or interspecies zoonosis.

Covid-19 is 96% identical with the ancestral bat corona virus. How this hydbridisation between what would have to be two closely related viruses might have happened needs to be discussed - they'd both have had to infected the same cell at the same time for any RNA mixing to have occurred.

Exactly that has been discussed in the literature. Any organism that is infected with two diseases at the same time would produce exactly this result..

He seems to be confused in thinking it has to do with mixing of the animals unless by "mixing" he means keeping them alive in close quarters. Clearly two different viruses can infect a single organism without either of them being from a different species of host.

--

Rick C.

--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 9:17:53 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 5:35:53 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 13:43:08 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL

That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is relatively short, 99% of these people don't require hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated. His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction.

Sure, you can have all sorts of fun with a math model. Or a
spreadsheet. But the chloroquine might help, seems to help.

Flu viruses tend to mutate to be less lethal. It's not in their
interest to quickly kill the hosts that spread them.

But what impresses me is that an entire planet worth of viruses mutate
together. No one virus mutates and passes the less-lethal trend to its
offspring.

The people who study these things think this one we have now is some kind of hybrid of two wild strain corona viruses that exist naturally in nature.. This would strengthen the theory that mixing up the animals in wild meat markets created the virus. Probably a bat/pangolin merger, or interspecies zoonosis.

Covid-19 is 96% identical with the ancestral bat corona virus. How this hydbridisation between what would have to be two closely related viruses might have happened needs to be discussed - they'd both have had to infected the same cell at the same time for any RNA mixing to have occurred.

Quite why it might have seemed sensible to hypothesise isn't made clear either.

Fred isn't good at getting hold of reliable data. The Wuhan data listed 20% of those infected as being seriously or critically ill so his 99% not requiring hospitalisation is a very odd figure.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Rick C]

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 11:36:55 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:

This just in from my sister-in-law (Belgrade, Serbia).
I'll have to paraphrase since it's a long email.

1) Persons over 65 prohibited from leaving their home.
2) From 5PM to 5AM, only people are the streets are police, Serbian army, and ER vehicles.
3) City streets washed with Chlorine every night.
4) Stores open: Grocery & pharmacies only. Shoppers allowed in one-by-one, long lines.
5) Entering shops: Must have gloves and facemasks, and keep 2 meter distance to all other people (in line or operating store)
6) Grocery stores are well-stocked. (Which I presume means, "well-stocked" for Serbia.)
7) Anyone with a salary or pension already received 16 pounds (her words) heavy package with basic food and hygienic products.
8) All schools closed for rest of the school year. Students returned home.
9) All transportation closed (buses, rail and air).
10) All external borders are closed.
11) Air Serbia still operating limited flights (to New York, Paris, Amsterdam, Moscow and Doha) to collect all Serbians who want to come home.
12) #11 to include Bosnians, Macedonians, Kosovars, Montenegrians and anyone else from the Balkans.
13) All health services are free (for Serbians, and all foreigners who step foot on the soil during the crisis).
14) All arrivals (regardless of citizenship: Mandatory 14 days quarantine in Army barracks.
15) Every night: People clap their hands on their balconies for 5 minutes in tribute to healthcare workers, and sing the national anthem.

I don't get the need for the Army, but ok. I don't get the chlorine wash at all. Does anyone suggest that might help???

Otherwise these measures sound like they want to keep this under control. If they combine it with lots of testing they should be in good shape.

I wonder where they got all the face masks? We couldn't do that here.

--

Rick C.

++ Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 4:02:45 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:47:52 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 3:27:20 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:11:20 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

Covid-19 is 96% identical with the ancestral bat corona virus. How this hydbridisation between what would have to be two closely related viruses might have happened needs to be discussed - they'd both have had to infected the same cell at the same time for any RNA mixing to have occurred.

Exactly that has been discussed in the literature. Any organism that is infected with two diseases at the same time would produce exactly this result.

Only if the two different RNA sequences were exposed in the same infected cell at the same time.

If one virus infected the right lung and another infected the left lung it wouldn't happen.

So what is your point? Are you suggesting viruses always communicate and invade separate lungs??? WTF!

The point was that the viral particles have to be reproducing at the same time in the same cell in order to swap genome segments.

In the same organism is a necessary - but not a sufficient - condition, and one that is a lot more likely to happen.

He seems to be confused in thinking it has to do with mixing of the animals unless by "mixing" he means keeping them alive in close quarters. Clearly two different viruses can infect a single organism without either of them being from a different species of host.

The point is that the new virus has to be able to infect a new host - in this case us. If a virus capable of infecting humans evolved in a place where there weren't any humans, it wouldn't be a useful capability.

Sometimes you get a freebie! Soil organisms can kill humans even though they almost never have anything to do with them since humans don't live in the soil. Can you say opportunistic?

The word you were looking for was "opportunist", and the organisms you are talking about are bacteria or fungi, rather than viruses. This is John Larkin level misapprehension.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 3:27:20 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:11:20 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 9:17:53 AM UTC+11, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 5:35:53 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 13:43:08 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL

That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is relatively short, 99% of these people don't require hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated. His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction.

Sure, you can have all sorts of fun with a math model. Or a
spreadsheet. But the chloroquine might help, seems to help.

Flu viruses tend to mutate to be less lethal. It's not in their
interest to quickly kill the hosts that spread them.

But what impresses me is that an entire planet worth of viruses mutate
together. No one virus mutates and passes the less-lethal trend to its
offspring.

The people who study these things think this one we have now is some kind of hybrid of two wild strain corona viruses that exist naturally in nature. This would strengthen the theory that mixing up the animals in wild meat markets created the virus. Probably a bat/pangolin merger, or interspecies zoonosis.

Covid-19 is 96% identical with the ancestral bat corona virus. How this hydbridisation between what would have to be two closely related viruses might have happened needs to be discussed - they'd both have had to infected the same cell at the same time for any RNA mixing to have occurred.

Exactly that has been discussed in the literature. Any organism that is infected with two diseases at the same time would produce exactly this result.

Only if the two different RNA sequences were exposed in the same infected cell at the same time.

If one virus infected the right lung and another infected the left lung it wouldn't happen.

> He seems to be confused in thinking it has to do with mixing of the animals unless by "mixing" he means keeping them alive in close quarters. Clearly two different viruses can infect a single organism without either of them being from a different species of host.

The point is that the new virus has to be able to infect a new host - in this case us. If a virus capable of infecting humans evolved in a place where there weren't any humans, it wouldn't be a useful capability.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 8:35:53 AM UTC+11, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 13:43:08 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is relatively short, 99% of these people don't require hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated. His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction.

Sure, you can have all sorts of fun with a math model. Or a
spreadsheet. But the chloroquine might help, seems to help.

Flu viruses tend to mutate to be less lethal. It's not in their
interest to quickly kill the hosts that spread them.

But what impresses me is that an entire planet worth of viruses mutate
together. No one virus mutates and passes the less-lethal trend to its
offspring.

That would be impressive if it happened. It doesn't.

Mutation is always a one individual at a time thing. It has to be one single virus mutating, passing on it's slight;y less lethal genome to it's descendants, whose victims live longer to infect more people before their immune systems clear the virus away.

Quite how John Larkin could be so ill-informed as to make this claim escapes me.

He claims that other people don't believe in evolution, but he clearly doesn't understand it at a fundamental level.

--

Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:47:52 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 3:27:20 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:11:20 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

Covid-19 is 96% identical with the ancestral bat corona virus. How this hydbridisation between what would have to be two closely related viruses might have happened needs to be discussed - they'd both have had to infected the same cell at the same time for any RNA mixing to have occurred.

Exactly that has been discussed in the literature. Any organism that is infected with two diseases at the same time would produce exactly this result.

Only if the two different RNA sequences were exposed in the same infected cell at the same time.

If one virus infected the right lung and another infected the left lung it wouldn't happen.

So what is your point? Are you suggesting viruses always communicate and invade separate lungs??? WTF!

He seems to be confused in thinking it has to do with mixing of the animals unless by "mixing" he means keeping them alive in close quarters. Clearly two different viruses can infect a single organism without either of them being from a different species of host.

The point is that the new virus has to be able to infect a new host - in this case us. If a virus capable of infecting humans evolved in a place where there weren't any humans, it wouldn't be a useful capability.

Sometimes you get a freebie! Soil organisms can kill humans even though they almost never have anything to do with them since humans don't live in the soil. Can you say opportunistic?

--

Rick C.

--+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

2015

https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985

 

[Rick C]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 1:41:44 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 4:02:45 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:47:52 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 3:27:20 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:11:20 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

Covid-19 is 96% identical with the ancestral bat corona virus. How this hydbridisation between what would have to be two closely related viruses might have happened needs to be discussed - they'd both have had to infected the same cell at the same time for any RNA mixing to have occurred.

Exactly that has been discussed in the literature. Any organism that is infected with two diseases at the same time would produce exactly this result.

Only if the two different RNA sequences were exposed in the same infected cell at the same time.

If one virus infected the right lung and another infected the left lung it wouldn't happen.

So what is your point? Are you suggesting viruses always communicate and invade separate lungs??? WTF!

The point was that the viral particles have to be reproducing at the same time in the same cell in order to swap genome segments.

In the same organism is a necessary - but not a sufficient - condition, and one that is a lot more likely to happen.

He seems to be confused in thinking it has to do with mixing of the animals unless by "mixing" he means keeping them alive in close quarters. Clearly two different viruses can infect a single organism without either of them being from a different species of host.

The point is that the new virus has to be able to infect a new host - in this case us. If a virus capable of infecting humans evolved in a place where there weren't any humans, it wouldn't be a useful capability.

Sometimes you get a freebie! Soil organisms can kill humans even though they almost never have anything to do with them since humans don't live in the soil. Can you say opportunistic?

The word you were looking for was "opportunist", and the organisms you are talking about are bacteria or fungi, rather than viruses. This is John Larkin level misapprehension.

You are being very tedious trying to make minute distinctions with no point.. You can't seem to make any point about viruses infecting the same cell, you just keep saying they have to infect the same cell... yes, we know that and it happens. I guess you are just being Bill Sloman.

Have a nice day.

--

Rick C.

-+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Mikko OH2HVJ]

bitrex <user@example.net> writes:

On 3/22/2020 5:35 PM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
But what impresses me is that an entire planet worth of viruses mutate
together. No one virus mutates and passes the less-lethal trend to its
offspring.

Genetic drift drives populations towards uniformity over time, there
isn't really infinite variation there's a hysteresis-effect where
alleles get fixed and lost with certainty through the whole population
past thresholds of rarity or common-ness.

In the case of RNA virii you should check antigenic drift. Genetic drift
requires sexual reproduction, IIRC.

--
mikko

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 6:15:07 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 1:41:44 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 4:02:45 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:47:52 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 3:27:20 PM UTC+11, Rick C wrote:
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:11:20 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:

Covid-19 is 96% identical with the ancestral bat corona virus. How this hydbridisation between what would have to be two closely related viruses might have happened needs to be discussed - they'd both have had to infected the same cell at the same time for any RNA mixing to have occurred..

Exactly that has been discussed in the literature. Any organism that is infected with two diseases at the same time would produce exactly this result.

Only if the two different RNA sequences were exposed in the same infected cell at the same time.

If one virus infected the right lung and another infected the left lung it wouldn't happen.

So what is your point? Are you suggesting viruses always communicate and invade separate lungs??? WTF!

The point was that the viral particles have to be reproducing at the same time in the same cell in order to swap genome segments.

In the same organism is a necessary - but not a sufficient - condition, and one that is a lot more likely to happen.

He seems to be confused in thinking it has to do with mixing of the animals unless by "mixing" he means keeping them alive in close quarters.. Clearly two different viruses can infect a single organism without either of them being from a different species of host.

The point is that the new virus has to be able to infect a new host - in this case us. If a virus capable of infecting humans evolved in a place where there weren't any humans, it wouldn't be a useful capability.

Sometimes you get a freebie! Soil organisms can kill humans even though they almost never have anything to do with them since humans don't live in the soil. Can you say opportunistic?

The word you were looking for was "opportunist", and the organisms you are talking about are bacteria or fungi, rather than viruses. This is John Larkin level misapprehension.

You are being very tedious trying to make minute distinctions with no point.

If you haven't bothered to make a distinction you clearly should have, it becomes minute and has no point.

Wahtever John Larkin has got, you do seem to be catching.

> You can't seem to make any point about viruses infecting the same cell, you just keep saying they have to infect the same cell... yes, we know that and it happens.

You talked about infecting the same organism, which is a step on the way to infecting the same cell, but don't feel like going far enough to get it right.

> I guess you are just being Bill Sloman.

Picky. It happens to be a necessary condition for putting gear to together that works.

> Have a nice day.

Difficult. Australia's politiicans have finally recognised the need to go into lock-down, but the country is full of people who can't see the point, and aren't bothering. The next couple of weeks are going to be depressingly exciting.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Mikko OH2HVJ]

bitrex <user@example.net> writes:

The max theoretical mutation rate of a propagating RNA virus is about
proportional to the inverse of its genome size; it doesn't have
error-correction ability so any faster than that and the number of
sequence alterations that are rapidly lethal quickly goes up and it
doesn't live long enough to spread.

Here's a nice article about coronavirus mutations and different strains
going around:

https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/

--
mikko

 

[David Brown]

On 22/03/2020 22:35, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

Flu viruses tend to mutate to be less lethal. It's not in their
interest to quickly kill the hosts that spread them.

But what impresses me is that an entire planet worth of viruses mutate
together. No one virus mutates and passes the less-lethal trend to its
offspring.

Did no one tell you that Plague, Inc. is a /game/, not a scientific
model of pathogens and pandemics?

 

[mpm]

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:17:43 AM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

Just because my sister-in-law claims it to be Chlorine doesn't mean that it actually is. (Although I suspect it is.)

What else would governments use to spray down streets that's cheap and effective?
She might mean chlorine bleach? IDK, haven't spoken to her yet.

But, Serbia is more locked-down than the US.
Of course, it's a much smaller country, and they're quite literally used to war.

 

[David Brown]

On 23/03/2020 12:37, mpm wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 12:17:43 AM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:

Just because my sister-in-law claims it to be Chlorine doesn't mean that it actually is. (Although I suspect it is.)

What else would governments use to spray down streets that's cheap and effective?
She might mean chlorine bleach? IDK, haven't spoken to her yet.

Almost certainly it would be chlorine bleach rather than chlorine gas!

It is very effective at destroying the virus particles. Whether
spraying the streets is an effective way to reduce the spread is another
matter.

But, Serbia is more locked-down than the US.
Of course, it's a much smaller country, and they're quite literally used to war.