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Superfluous Demand concept

Guest
I'd been thinking about this, but it has official status now.
"Superfluous Demand".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/superfluous-demand-free-fall-whats-upside-re-opening-small-business

My idea is that the Marxist concept of the surplus product of labor
has been going not so much to fat-cat capitalists, but to workers who
spend their wages on silly stuff like premium cable, essential scented
oils, $500 basketball seats, $70K ugly trucks and SUVs, boats that are
rarely used, cruises, wine tours, art studios, like that.

I've noticed the kinds of small businesses that are going under now
and may never come back. Many were silly things like weird nutrients,
strange dance studios, knitting specialties, psychic councelling,
exercize studios next to hilly parks, wine tasting boutiques,
hop-heavy brewpubs, gift stores full of hideous junk.

There's lots of silly electronics and phone/web apps too, highly
derivative ideas that create money-losing angel companies but that
people don't really need. Like $1200 phones.

Mo has two units at ActivSpace, a big building full of small units
rented to anyone at high cost per square foot. It's full of tattoo
artists, art studios, crafts, repair services, skin and hair care, all
kinds of marginally-profitable weird stuff. It rents month-to-month
and people are not paying.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard
 
G

George Herold

Guest
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:00:38 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
I'd been thinking about this, but it has official status now.
"Superfluous Demand".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/superfluous-demand-free-fall-whats-upside-re-opening-small-business

My idea is that the Marxist concept of the surplus product of labor
has been going not so much to fat-cat capitalists, but to workers who
spend their wages on silly stuff like premium cable, essential scented
oils, $500 basketball seats, $70K ugly trucks and SUVs, boats that are
rarely used, cruises, wine tours, art studios, like that.

I've noticed the kinds of small businesses that are going under now
and may never come back. Many were silly things like weird nutrients,
strange dance studios, knitting specialties, psychic councelling,
exercize studios next to hilly parks, wine tasting boutiques,
hop-heavy brewpubs, gift stores full of hideous junk.

There's lots of silly electronics and phone/web apps too, highly
derivative ideas that create money-losing angel companies but that
people don't really need. Like $1200 phones.

Mo has two units at ActivSpace, a big building full of small units
rented to anyone at high cost per square foot. It's full of tattoo
artists, art studios, crafts, repair services, skin and hair care, all
kinds of marginally-profitable weird stuff. It rents month-to-month
and people are not paying.
Hmm.. OK I tend to be a frugal type. But I wonder if everyone (in US)
will be a bit more frugal after this? And that will mean less money
moving around... lower GDP...
I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

George H.
--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard
 

Guest
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:00:38 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
I'd been thinking about this, but it has official status now.
"Superfluous Demand".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/superfluous-demand-free-fall-whats-upside-re-opening-small-business

My idea is that the Marxist concept of the surplus product of labor
has been going not so much to fat-cat capitalists, but to workers who
spend their wages on silly stuff like premium cable, essential scented
oils, $500 basketball seats, $70K ugly trucks and SUVs, boats that are
rarely used, cruises, wine tours, art studios, like that.

I've noticed the kinds of small businesses that are going under now
and may never come back. Many were silly things like weird nutrients,
strange dance studios, knitting specialties, psychic councelling,
exercize studios next to hilly parks, wine tasting boutiques,
hop-heavy brewpubs, gift stores full of hideous junk.

There's lots of silly electronics and phone/web apps too, highly
derivative ideas that create money-losing angel companies but that
people don't really need. Like $1200 phones.

Mo has two units at ActivSpace, a big building full of small units
rented to anyone at high cost per square foot. It's full of tattoo
artists, art studios, crafts, repair services, skin and hair care, all
kinds of marginally-profitable weird stuff. It rents month-to-month
and people are not paying.
The politicians have been telling us we're supposed to feel sorry for these people, so much so, we're going to deficit spend an additional $3T to keep them alive.

Dunno how much they're going to blow on Boeing, but there's another hopeless situation. Somewhere along the way, that company lost its way. Handouts won't fix that, they will only make it worse. Shitty engineering is not a victimization thing.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard
 

Guest
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:39:40 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:00:38 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
I'd been thinking about this, but it has official status now.
"Superfluous Demand".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/superfluous-demand-free-fall-whats-upside-re-opening-small-business

My idea is that the Marxist concept of the surplus product of labor
has been going not so much to fat-cat capitalists, but to workers who
spend their wages on silly stuff like premium cable, essential scented
oils, $500 basketball seats, $70K ugly trucks and SUVs, boats that are
rarely used, cruises, wine tours, art studios, like that.

I've noticed the kinds of small businesses that are going under now
and may never come back. Many were silly things like weird nutrients,
strange dance studios, knitting specialties, psychic councelling,
exercize studios next to hilly parks, wine tasting boutiques,
hop-heavy brewpubs, gift stores full of hideous junk.

There's lots of silly electronics and phone/web apps too, highly
derivative ideas that create money-losing angel companies but that
people don't really need. Like $1200 phones.

Mo has two units at ActivSpace, a big building full of small units
rented to anyone at high cost per square foot. It's full of tattoo
artists, art studios, crafts, repair services, skin and hair care, all
kinds of marginally-profitable weird stuff. It rents month-to-month
and people are not paying.


Hmm.. OK I tend to be a frugal type. But I wonder if everyone (in US)
will be a bit more frugal after this? And that will mean less money
moving around... lower GDP...
I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?
Something with intrinsic value, something people want and need, is
as good as you can do for storing value. That can include partial
ownership in a solid enterprise, too.

If the thing has intrinsic value, and we continue to respect property
rights (the right to own something and not have it confiscated), then
things with intrinsic value should maintain their relative value,
regardless.

But if government starts taking assets -- savings, investments, land,
companies, etc. (and they have many insidious methods and pretexts for
doing so) -- then it's time to buy a big lump of gold and try nibbling
a little chunk of it every night, to see it if fills your belly.

Cheers,
James Arthur
 

Guest
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:00:38 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
I'd been thinking about this, but it has official status now.
"Superfluous Demand".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/superfluous-demand-free-fall-whats-upside-re-opening-small-business

My idea is that the Marxist concept of the surplus product of labor
has been going not so much to fat-cat capitalists, but to workers who
spend their wages on silly stuff like premium cable, essential scented
oils, $500 basketball seats, $70K ugly trucks and SUVs, boats that are
rarely used, cruises, wine tours, art studios, like that.

I've noticed the kinds of small businesses that are going under now
and may never come back. Many were silly things like weird nutrients,
strange dance studios, knitting specialties, psychic councelling,
exercize studios next to hilly parks, wine tasting boutiques,
hop-heavy brewpubs, gift stores full of hideous junk.

There's lots of silly electronics and phone/web apps too, highly
derivative ideas that create money-losing angel companies but that
people don't really need. Like $1200 phones.

Mo has two units at ActivSpace, a big building full of small units
rented to anyone at high cost per square foot. It's full of tattoo
artists, art studios, crafts, repair services, skin and hair care, all
kinds of marginally-profitable weird stuff. It rents month-to-month
and people are not paying.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard
I think there will be a lot of re-thinking, re-calibration, and
re-adjustment of priorities. Lots of marginal branches will get
pruned, except for the bigger ones (which will get bailed out).(*)

(*)
"Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short
phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And
if it stops moving, subsidize it." --Ronald Reagan

I enjoyed this quote:
"Which brings us back to the owner who's wondering if they want to
return to the heavy burdens and crazy-busy churn of a business
that may well lose money or flounder for years. What's the pay-off
for working extra hours because you can't afford to hire back all
your previous staff? What's the payoff as rents, healthcare, fees,
taxes and the cost of goods all increase while customers balk at
any increase in your own prices? Is struggling to survive really
what I want to spend the rest of my life doing? And for what? To
slowly go bankrupt?"

When Obama told me "You didn't build that," as he layered on more and
more duties and burdens that I was supposed to carry for him, I
thought "Fine, you build it. I quit." And I did.

Cheers,
James Arthur
 
A

amdx

Guest
On 4/29/2020 11:00 AM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
I'd been thinking about this, but it has official status now.
"Superfluous Demand".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/superfluous-demand-free-fall-whats-upside-re-opening-small-business

My idea is that the Marxist concept of the surplus product of labor
has been going not so much to fat-cat capitalists, but to workers who
spend their wages on silly stuff like premium cable, essential scented
oils, $500 basketball seats, $70K ugly trucks and SUVs, boats that are
rarely used, cruises, wine tours, art studios, like that.

I've noticed the kinds of small businesses that are going under now
and may never come back. Many were silly things like weird nutrients,
strange dance studios, knitting specialties, psychic councelling,
exercize studios next to hilly parks, wine tasting boutiques,
hop-heavy brewpubs, gift stores full of hideous junk.

There's lots of silly electronics and phone/web apps too, highly
derivative ideas that create money-losing angel companies but that
people don't really need. Like $1200 phones.

Mo has two units at ActivSpace, a big building full of small units
rented to anyone at high cost per square foot. It's full of tattoo
artists, art studios, crafts, repair services, skin and hair care, all
kinds of marginally-profitable weird stuff. It rents month-to-month
and people are not paying.
My wife and I since since our marriage 39 years ago, have lived
conservatively. We haven't bought all that "silly stuff" as you say, and
I agree. I don't have cable now, I don't like perfumy smells in the
house, I have recently bought into the weird nutrient* thing, but with
real science behind it. Have never bought a new car, have had a good
Camry, a Nice Lexus and Avalon, my son is driving it now. I still have
T-100, I bought in 2000 for $11,000. I did get a gym membership as part
of my Medigap plan, I pay for it whether I use it or not, I started
using it until the covid closure.
The frugality paid off, we have invested the savings that weren't
spent on "silly stuff" in the stock market since the late 80s. We can
now live
on less than 4% of our assets and shouldn't have any problems, even with
a 50% drop in the stock market. BUT, I sure hope that doesn't happen!
I hope this passes and the average American goes back to their mindless
paycheck to paycheck spending. I hope the collective memory is short.

There have been several articles, saying with the economic decline the
FIRE** movement people are suffering, it's not true. If they were doing
it right they were already living well below their means and had
savings. They are doing better than those that didn't thing about saving
for the future.

* Healthspan and lifespan extenders in no particular order,
Vitamin D, Tumeric, Metformin, Resveratrol, Nicotinamide Riboside.

**FIRE- Financially Independent Retire Early
 
G

George Herold

Guest
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 1:53:16 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:39:40 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:00:38 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
I'd been thinking about this, but it has official status now.
"Superfluous Demand".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/superfluous-demand-free-fall-whats-upside-re-opening-small-business

My idea is that the Marxist concept of the surplus product of labor
has been going not so much to fat-cat capitalists, but to workers who
spend their wages on silly stuff like premium cable, essential scented
oils, $500 basketball seats, $70K ugly trucks and SUVs, boats that are
rarely used, cruises, wine tours, art studios, like that.

I've noticed the kinds of small businesses that are going under now
and may never come back. Many were silly things like weird nutrients,
strange dance studios, knitting specialties, psychic councelling,
exercize studios next to hilly parks, wine tasting boutiques,
hop-heavy brewpubs, gift stores full of hideous junk.

There's lots of silly electronics and phone/web apps too, highly
derivative ideas that create money-losing angel companies but that
people don't really need. Like $1200 phones.

Mo has two units at ActivSpace, a big building full of small units
rented to anyone at high cost per square foot. It's full of tattoo
artists, art studios, crafts, repair services, skin and hair care, all
kinds of marginally-profitable weird stuff. It rents month-to-month
and people are not paying.


Hmm.. OK I tend to be a frugal type. But I wonder if everyone (in US)
will be a bit more frugal after this? And that will mean less money
moving around... lower GDP...
I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

Something with intrinsic value, something people want and need, is
as good as you can do for storing value. That can include partial
ownership in a solid enterprise, too.

If the thing has intrinsic value, and we continue to respect property
rights (the right to own something and not have it confiscated), then
things with intrinsic value should maintain their relative value,
regardless.

But if government starts taking assets -- savings, investments, land,
companies, etc. (and they have many insidious methods and pretexts for
doing so) -- then it's time to buy a big lump of gold and try nibbling
a little chunk of it every night, to see it if fills your belly.

Cheers,
James Arthur
Right. I should take my money out of the stock market... hold it
in cash for a bit... and invest in test equipment during the next
sell off.
(there's no way I can use that much test equipment. :^)

I've got a nice house, sm. barn, nice land...
Well the land is sorta crappy for farming*.. heavy clay..
But there's a beautiful creek that runs along the back end.
(1/2 of it's trees/woods and the other half is slowly turning
into trees. :^)

And then gold, Right. Is gold high now?
(or some other precious metal?)
I was going to ask my broker, I have no idea, but my
first guess is he's not going to suggest gold.
(but what do I know?)

George H.

*a neighbor, ex-farmer, said it was good haying fields.
 
R

Ricky C

Guest
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 4:31:25 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 1:53:16 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:39:40 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:00:38 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
I'd been thinking about this, but it has official status now.
"Superfluous Demand".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/superfluous-demand-free-fall-whats-upside-re-opening-small-business

My idea is that the Marxist concept of the surplus product of labor
has been going not so much to fat-cat capitalists, but to workers who
spend their wages on silly stuff like premium cable, essential scented
oils, $500 basketball seats, $70K ugly trucks and SUVs, boats that are
rarely used, cruises, wine tours, art studios, like that.

I've noticed the kinds of small businesses that are going under now
and may never come back. Many were silly things like weird nutrients,
strange dance studios, knitting specialties, psychic councelling,
exercize studios next to hilly parks, wine tasting boutiques,
hop-heavy brewpubs, gift stores full of hideous junk.

There's lots of silly electronics and phone/web apps too, highly
derivative ideas that create money-losing angel companies but that
people don't really need. Like $1200 phones.

Mo has two units at ActivSpace, a big building full of small units
rented to anyone at high cost per square foot. It's full of tattoo
artists, art studios, crafts, repair services, skin and hair care, all
kinds of marginally-profitable weird stuff. It rents month-to-month
and people are not paying.


Hmm.. OK I tend to be a frugal type. But I wonder if everyone (in US)
will be a bit more frugal after this? And that will mean less money
moving around... lower GDP...
I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

Something with intrinsic value, something people want and need, is
as good as you can do for storing value. That can include partial
ownership in a solid enterprise, too.

If the thing has intrinsic value, and we continue to respect property
rights (the right to own something and not have it confiscated), then
things with intrinsic value should maintain their relative value,
regardless.

But if government starts taking assets -- savings, investments, land,
companies, etc. (and they have many insidious methods and pretexts for
doing so) -- then it's time to buy a big lump of gold and try nibbling
a little chunk of it every night, to see it if fills your belly.

Cheers,
James Arthur

Right. I should take my money out of the stock market... hold it
in cash for a bit... and invest in test equipment during the next
sell off.
(there's no way I can use that much test equipment. :^)
Not cash, bonds are the safe alternative to stocks. Just don't buy too late after they have gone up.


I've got a nice house, sm. barn, nice land...
Well the land is sorta crappy for farming*.. heavy clay..
But there's a beautiful creek that runs along the back end.
(1/2 of it's trees/woods and the other half is slowly turning
into trees. :^)

And then gold, Right. Is gold high now?
(or some other precious metal?)
I was going to ask my broker, I have no idea, but my
first guess is he's not going to suggest gold.
(but what do I know?)
You can always rent farm land for someone else to cultivate.

Gold prices were low in 2000 (<$400), rising until 2011 (>$2000). Dropped abruptly in 2013 (unusual for gold) and wallowed around $1200 until 2019 when it started up again. Currently it's about $1700.

I think it's a bit too late to consider gold to be a safe haven, but who knows? It may repeat the 2000-2011 rise given the uncertainty of the times.

Tesla released first quarter numbers today and the stock has jumped 10% in after hours market from $800 to $880. This may be a good time to short the stock. I'm not much for shorting any stock though. Maybe if you hedge with options. I still am long some 200 odd shares. At the end of the month it will be long term capital gains. Bought at $190 or so. Wow! Big win! If I sell the remainder at today's price it will be a total of $320,000 earned and all long term capital gains taxed like Warren Buffet, not his secretary. I can't afford to pay the same tax rates that the hoi polloi pay. If you make lots of money, who can?

I may not like Trump's policies, but they do benefit me.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
R

Ricky C

Guest
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 9:19:55 PM UTC-4, amdx wrote:
On 4/29/2020 6:02 PM, Ricky C wrote:

Not cash, bonds are the safe alternative to stocks. Just don't buy too late after they have gone up.


That's not always true, in fact many people holding bonds had a
decrease in their value during this Covid problem.
I have a small amount in a Vanguard high yield Bond fund (VWEAX), it
lost 19.7% from 2-20 to 3-24. During the same 2-20 to 3-24 my Stock fund
(VTSAX) dropped 28.6%. Today VWEAX is down 8.9% and VTSAX is down 16.3%.
Bonds will never drop below a level defined by the intererst rate on teh bond as long as the bond is paid off. US treasury bonds and similar have virtually no risk. I think the issue with your investment is summed up in the name "high yield" which means high risk (mostly company bonds no doubt so not much different from investing directly in the company except less gain).. You should have switched over to government bond funds like I did many months ago. I may have missed out on some of the appreciation in the stock based funds, but perfect timing is tough.


But don't let the lower volatility make you think the bond is safe.
The 10 year return of the bond fund VWEAX is 74.4% while the 10 year
return of the stock fund VTSAX is 163.3%.
That's only useful if you held the fund during that period. Does that period include the last three months? If not no point in discussing it.


I have a neighbor that is really safe, he's been safe since 9-12-2001,
right after 9-11, he moved to cash and been there since. He's lost about
30% of the buying power of his money to inflation.
That's why cash is NOT safe.


Also he's lost about
200% growth over 20 years. He's been safe, but it has cost him about
$400,000 dollars of growth in his nest egg.
Missing out on investment gains is never real. Notice it's always stated after the fact. I bet you missed out on the 400% return on Tesla stock (TSLA) since last year...! Because you also missed out on any number of other possible investments none of us knew were certain.

You choose a path and accept the gains or losses.


btw, bonds are often a counter balance to stocks, conventional wisdom is
that if stocks go down bonds go up and vise versa, this keeps your
portfolio balanced. It doesn't always work,
If anything ALWAYS worked everyone would do it. In the short term, I would be in government bond funds. But if the states go through bankruptcy as Pence recommends, they will be fucked too.


Gold prices were low in 2000 (<$400), rising until 2011 (>$2000). Dropped abruptly in 2013 (unusual for gold) and wallowed around $1200 until 2019 when it started up again. Currently it's about $1700.

I think it's a bit too late to consider gold to be a safe haven, but who knows? It may repeat the 2000-2011 rise given the uncertainty of the times.

Tesla released first quarter numbers today and the stock has jumped 10% in after hours market from $800 to $880. This may be a good time to short the stock. I'm not much for shorting any stock though. Maybe if you hedge with options. I still am long some 200 odd shares. At the end of the month it will be long term capital gains. Bought at $190 or so. Wow! Big win! If I sell the remainder at today's price it will be a total of $320,000 earned and all long term capital gains taxed like Warren Buffet, not his secretary. I can't afford to pay the same tax rates that the hoi polloi pay. If you make lots of money, who can?

I may not like Trump's policies, but they do benefit me.



I didn't like Obama's policies, but I doubled my net worth during his
8 years.
Must have been momentum from Bush's tenure.


Re: taxes, I didn't have any tax due this year, yet I sold enough
stocks to pay my daughters $66,000 dental school tuition and supply our
living expenses. Lots of LTCGs at 0% tax rate. This year, I'll do Roth
conversions up to the top of the 12% tax bracket. So, I'll probably pay
about $10k.
Should I assume LTCG is long term capital gains? Why are they 0% taxed?

--

Rick C.

+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
A

amdx

Guest
On 4/29/2020 6:02 PM, Ricky C wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 4:31:25 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 1:53:16 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:39:40 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:00:38 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
I'd been thinking about this, but it has official status now.
"Superfluous Demand".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/superfluous-demand-free-fall-whats-upside-re-opening-small-business

My idea is that the Marxist concept of the surplus product of labor
has been going not so much to fat-cat capitalists, but to workers who
spend their wages on silly stuff like premium cable, essential scented
oils, $500 basketball seats, $70K ugly trucks and SUVs, boats that are
rarely used, cruises, wine tours, art studios, like that.

I've noticed the kinds of small businesses that are going under now
and may never come back. Many were silly things like weird nutrients,
strange dance studios, knitting specialties, psychic councelling,
exercize studios next to hilly parks, wine tasting boutiques,
hop-heavy brewpubs, gift stores full of hideous junk.

There's lots of silly electronics and phone/web apps too, highly
derivative ideas that create money-losing angel companies but that
people don't really need. Like $1200 phones.

Mo has two units at ActivSpace, a big building full of small units
rented to anyone at high cost per square foot. It's full of tattoo
artists, art studios, crafts, repair services, skin and hair care, all
kinds of marginally-profitable weird stuff. It rents month-to-month
and people are not paying.


Hmm.. OK I tend to be a frugal type. But I wonder if everyone (in US)
will be a bit more frugal after this? And that will mean less money
moving around... lower GDP...
I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

Something with intrinsic value, something people want and need, is
as good as you can do for storing value. That can include partial
ownership in a solid enterprise, too.

If the thing has intrinsic value, and we continue to respect property
rights (the right to own something and not have it confiscated), then
things with intrinsic value should maintain their relative value,
regardless.

But if government starts taking assets -- savings, investments, land,
companies, etc. (and they have many insidious methods and pretexts for
doing so) -- then it's time to buy a big lump of gold and try nibbling
a little chunk of it every night, to see it if fills your belly.

Cheers,
James Arthur

Right. I should take my money out of the stock market... hold it
in cash for a bit... and invest in test equipment during the next
sell off.
(there's no way I can use that much test equipment. :^)

Not cash, bonds are the safe alternative to stocks. Just don't buy too late after they have gone up.
That's not always true, in fact many people holding bonds had a
decrease in their value during this Covid problem.
I have a small amount in a Vanguard high yield Bond fund (VWEAX), it
lost 19.7% from 2-20 to 3-24. During the same 2-20 to 3-24 my Stock fund
(VTSAX) dropped 28.6%. Today VWEAX is down 8.9% and VTSAX is down 16.3%.
But don't let the lower volatility make you think the bond is safe.
The 10 year return of the bond fund VWEAX is 74.4% while the 10 year
return of the stock fund VTSAX is 163.3%.
I have a neighbor that is really safe, he's been safe since 9-12-2001,
right after 9-11, he moved to cash and been there since. He's lost about
30% of the buying power of his money to inflation. Also he's lost about
200% growth over 20 years. He's been safe, but it has cost him about
$400,000 dollars of growth in his nest egg.

btw, bonds are often a counter balance to stocks, conventional wisdom is
that if stocks go down bonds go up and vise versa, this keeps your
portfolio balanced. It doesn't always work,


I've got a nice house, sm. barn, nice land...
Well the land is sorta crappy for farming*.. heavy clay..
But there's a beautiful creek that runs along the back end.
(1/2 of it's trees/woods and the other half is slowly turning
into trees. :^)

And then gold, Right. Is gold high now?
(or some other precious metal?)
I was going to ask my broker, I have no idea, but my
first guess is he's not going to suggest gold.
(but what do I know?)

You can always rent farm land for someone else to cultivate.

Gold prices were low in 2000 (<$400), rising until 2011 (>$2000). Dropped abruptly in 2013 (unusual for gold) and wallowed around $1200 until 2019 when it started up again. Currently it's about $1700.

I think it's a bit too late to consider gold to be a safe haven, but who knows? It may repeat the 2000-2011 rise given the uncertainty of the times.

Tesla released first quarter numbers today and the stock has jumped 10% in after hours market from $800 to $880. This may be a good time to short the stock. I'm not much for shorting any stock though. Maybe if you hedge with options. I still am long some 200 odd shares. At the end of the month it will be long term capital gains. Bought at $190 or so. Wow! Big win! If I sell the remainder at today's price it will be a total of $320,000 earned and all long term capital gains taxed like Warren Buffet, not his secretary. I can't afford to pay the same tax rates that the hoi polloi pay. If you make lots of money, who can?

I may not like Trump's policies, but they do benefit me.

I didn't like Obama's policies, but I doubled my net worth during his
8 years.
Re: taxes, I didn't have any tax due this year, yet I sold enough
stocks to pay my daughters $66,000 dental school tuition and supply our
living expenses. Lots of LTCGs at 0% tax rate. This year, I'll do Roth
conversions up to the top of the 12% tax bracket. So, I'll probably pay
about $10k.
Mikek
 
T

Tom Del Rosso

Guest
George Herold wrote:
Hmm.. OK I tend to be a frugal type. But I wonder if everyone (in US)
will be a bit more frugal after this? And that will mean less money
moving around... lower GDP...
It will mean more money in the bank, which is good for the individual as
well as the economy.
 
B

bitrex

Guest
On 4/29/2020 12:00 PM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
I'd been thinking about this, but it has official status now.
"Superfluous Demand".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/superfluous-demand-free-fall-whats-upside-re-opening-small-business

My idea is that the Marxist concept of the surplus product of labor
has been going not so much to fat-cat capitalists, but to workers who
spend their wages on silly stuff like premium cable, essential scented
oils, $500 basketball seats, $70K ugly trucks and SUVs, boats that are
rarely used, cruises, wine tours, art studios, like that.

I've noticed the kinds of small businesses that are going under now
and may never come back. Many were silly things like weird nutrients,
strange dance studios, knitting specialties, psychic councelling,
exercize studios next to hilly parks, wine tasting boutiques,
hop-heavy brewpubs, gift stores full of hideous junk.

There's lots of silly electronics and phone/web apps too, highly
derivative ideas that create money-losing angel companies but that
people don't really need. Like $1200 phones.

Mo has two units at ActivSpace, a big building full of small units
rented to anyone at high cost per square foot. It's full of tattoo
artists, art studios, crafts, repair services, skin and hair care, all
kinds of marginally-profitable weird stuff. It rents month-to-month
and people are not paying.
Tis called "capitalism", boomer. Markets grow and expand. New markets
for new products are developed. People sell those products and people
invest in the sellers of those products and make more money to develop
new products etc.

The workers who have money to spend on "silly stuff" are often in
business related to "silly stuff" themselves. Are you objecting to our
fine free-market system?

Putting art studios in the same sentence with wine tours is abhorrent I
think. Yeah, everyone dumps on the useless artists but would probably
feel sad in a world with no art, no literature, no music, movies, TV
shows, video games, or newspapers. Well, JL might not miss them he seems
to admit doesn't understand most of those, but a lot of people would.
 
A

amdx

Guest
On 4/29/2020 8:38 PM, Ricky C wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 9:19:55 PM UTC-4, amdx wrote:
On 4/29/2020 6:02 PM, Ricky C wrote:

Not cash, bonds are the safe alternative to stocks. Just don't buy too late after they have gone up.


That's not always true, in fact many people holding bonds had a
decrease in their value during this Covid problem.
I have a small amount in a Vanguard high yield Bond fund (VWEAX), it
lost 19.7% from 2-20 to 3-24. During the same 2-20 to 3-24 my Stock fund
(VTSAX) dropped 28.6%. Today VWEAX is down 8.9% and VTSAX is down 16.3%.

Bonds will never drop below a level defined by the intererst rate on teh bond as long as the bond is paid off. US treasury bonds and similar have virtually no risk. I think the issue with your investment is summed up in the name "high yield" which means high risk (mostly company bonds no doubt so not much different from investing directly in the company except less gain). You should have switched over to government bond funds like I did many months ago. I may have missed out on some of the appreciation in the stock based funds, but perfect timing is tough.
No the problem is not high yield, it is a bond fund, they don't
generally hold until the bond is redeemed.

But don't let the lower volatility make you think the bond is safe.
The 10 year return of the bond fund VWEAX is 74.4% while the 10 year
return of the stock fund VTSAX is 163.3%.

That's only useful if you held the fund during that period. Does that period include the last three months? If not no point in discussing it.
If you are investing for retirement you would hold during that period.
I used today's price for the 10 year yield. So there is a point.


I have a neighbor that is really safe, he's been safe since 9-12-2001,
right after 9-11, he moved to cash and been there since. He's lost about
30% of the buying power of his money to inflation.

That's why cash is NOT safe.
It's not in dollar bills, it is in basically a bank account or Money
Market.

Also he's lost about
200% growth over 20 years. He's been safe, but it has cost him about
$400,000 dollars of growth in his nest egg.

Missing out on investment gains is never real. Notice it's always stated after the fact. I bet you missed out on the 400% return on Tesla stock (TSLA) since last year...! Because you also missed out on any number of other possible investments none of us knew were certain.
It is real, because if he didn't get scared out after 9-11 he would
have earned real money. Even after this drop, I couldn't get him to put
a little money in the market.
I don't have stock in any one company, I own mostly VTSAX or VTI, they
have about 3500 different company stocks in the fund.
I do own about $2500 of Tesla through VTSAX.

You choose a path and accept the gains or losses.


btw, bonds are often a counter balance to stocks, conventional wisdom is
that if stocks go down bonds go up and vise versa, this keeps your
portfolio balanced. It doesn't always work,

If anything ALWAYS worked everyone would do it.
People do do it! It is very common as you age to diversify into a more
balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds.
My comment was a response to your,

"bonds are the safe alternative to stocks"


In the short term, I would be in government bond funds. But if the states go through bankruptcy as Pence recommends, they will be fucked too.

Gold prices were low in 2000 (<$400), rising until 2011 (>$2000). Dropped abruptly in 2013 (unusual for gold) and wallowed around $1200 until 2019 when it started up again. Currently it's about $1700.

I think it's a bit too late to consider gold to be a safe haven, but who knows? It may repeat the 2000-2011 rise given the uncertainty of the times.

Tesla released first quarter numbers today and the stock has jumped 10% in after hours market from $800 to $880. This may be a good time to short the stock. I'm not much for shorting any stock though. Maybe if you hedge with options. I still am long some 200 odd shares. At the end of the month it will be long term capital gains. Bought at $190 or so. Wow! Big win! If I sell the remainder at today's price it will be a total of $320,000 earned and all long term capital gains taxed like Warren Buffet, not his secretary. I can't afford to pay the same tax rates that the hoi polloi pay. If you make lots of money, who can?

I may not like Trump's policies, but they do benefit me.



I didn't like Obama's policies, but I doubled my net worth during his
8 years.

Must have been momentum from Bush's tenure.


Re: taxes, I didn't have any tax due this year, yet I sold enough
stocks to pay my daughters $66,000 dental school tuition and supply our
living expenses. Lots of LTCGs at 0% tax rate. This year, I'll do Roth
conversions up to the top of the 12% tax bracket. So, I'll probably pay
about $10k.

Should I assume LTCG is long term capital gains? Why are they 0% taxed?
Yes, Long Term Capital Gains (LTCGs). They are taxed different, 0% tax
up to $40k for single and $80k MFJ. This is over and above your standard
deduction. So a married couple can have $104,400 of income with no taxes.
Also, the tax rate is 15% up to $496k and the maximum rate is 20% for
any LTCGs over $496k, That's why Buffet had a lower rate than his secretary.
It's a governmental reward for delayed gratification. (saving rather
than spending)

https://thecollegeinvestor.com/23577/capital-gains-tax-brackets/

https://www.thebalance.com/how-to-use-the-zero-percent-tax-rate-on-capital-gains-2388995

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/12/07/long-term-capital-gains-tax-rates-in-2020.aspx
Mikek
 
R

Ricky C

Guest
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 10:41:28 PM UTC-4, amdx wrote:
On 4/29/2020 8:38 PM, Ricky C wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 9:19:55 PM UTC-4, amdx wrote:
On 4/29/2020 6:02 PM, Ricky C wrote:

Not cash, bonds are the safe alternative to stocks. Just don't buy too late after they have gone up.


That's not always true, in fact many people holding bonds had a
decrease in their value during this Covid problem.
I have a small amount in a Vanguard high yield Bond fund (VWEAX), it
lost 19.7% from 2-20 to 3-24. During the same 2-20 to 3-24 my Stock fund
(VTSAX) dropped 28.6%. Today VWEAX is down 8.9% and VTSAX is down 16.3%.

Bonds will never drop below a level defined by the intererst rate on teh bond as long as the bond is paid off. US treasury bonds and similar have virtually no risk. I think the issue with your investment is summed up in the name "high yield" which means high risk (mostly company bonds no doubt so not much different from investing directly in the company except less gain). You should have switched over to government bond funds like I did many months ago. I may have missed out on some of the appreciation in the stock based funds, but perfect timing is tough.


No the problem is not high yield, it is a bond fund, they don't
generally hold until the bond is redeemed.
You seem to misunderstand. By their nature, bonds never go down in value below some point... well, unless inflation rises astronomically. Only then would it be worth taking a hit on the price of the bond so you can get the low yield principle back to invest in something appropriately larger. Since we are not having absurdly high inflation and no other investment is looking any better, the only reason bond values would drop is the risk of default on the bonds increases, which would only be happening now if the bonds in question were high risk company bonds... like Tesla rather than US Treasury bonds.

It doesn't matter that you are investing in a fund. It's still invested in bonds.


But don't let the lower volatility make you think the bond is safe..
The 10 year return of the bond fund VWEAX is 74.4% while the 10 year
return of the stock fund VTSAX is 163.3%.

That's only useful if you held the fund during that period. Does that period include the last three months? If not no point in discussing it.

If you are investing for retirement you would hold during that period.
I used today's price for the 10 year yield. So there is a point.
Does investing in the fund today guarantee the return of 74.4%? If not, that number means nothing. I'm pretty sure there are no stock funds that guarantee any return. So that number means nothing.


I have a neighbor that is really safe, he's been safe since 9-12-2001,
right after 9-11, he moved to cash and been there since. He's lost about
30% of the buying power of his money to inflation.

That's why cash is NOT safe.

It's not in dollar bills, it is in basically a bank account or Money
Market.
Doesn't matter. Cash investments pay very, very low interest, far below inflation. Inflation eats up the principal. What's safe about that? Guaranteed depreciation. Great!


Also he's lost about
200% growth over 20 years. He's been safe, but it has cost him about
$400,000 dollars of growth in his nest egg.

Missing out on investment gains is never real. Notice it's always stated after the fact. I bet you missed out on the 400% return on Tesla stock (TSLA) since last year...! Because you also missed out on any number of other possible investments none of us knew were certain.

It is real, because if he didn't get scared out after 9-11 he would
have earned real money.
Shoulda, woulda, coulda... WE ALWAYS MISS OUT ON SOMETHING.


Even after this drop, I couldn't get him to put
a little money in the market.
I don't have stock in any one company, I own mostly VTSAX or VTI, they
have about 3500 different company stocks in the fund.
I do own about $2500 of Tesla through VTSAX.
Great way to minimize your profits and experience opportunity loss. I already told you about the great opportunity you missed in Tesla. At least, according to your thinking it was opportunity loss.

I say what's the difference between opportunity loss and risk mitigation? You tell me.


You choose a path and accept the gains or losses.


btw, bonds are often a counter balance to stocks, conventional wisdom is
that if stocks go down bonds go up and vise versa, this keeps your
portfolio balanced. It doesn't always work,

If anything ALWAYS worked everyone would do it.
People do do it! It is very common as you age to diversify into a more
balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds.
My comment was a response to your,

"bonds are the safe alternative to stocks"
When I first looked at investing I read a bunch. It didn't take me long to recognize most of it was pure BS. "Balanced portfolio" is one of the myths. Again, is it opportunity loss or risk mitigation?

Bonds are safer than stocks but they offer less reward. In uncertain times they (meaning crap market times) they typically pay better yeilds than stocks. So is this a crap market time or a good market time?

I only invest in companies I know something about. I usually do very well with them, but not always. I invested in one company that lost is all. I invested in another company I knew would eventually be bought out. The CEO liked his job so he held on to it a lot longer than the big investors likes, so they booted him out. Still took another four years to get the market price up to where it sold at a great return. Factoring in how long I held it I got the equivalent return a investing in real estate... lol.

All my other investments paid very well with 100% in a year or two being the lowest. You have to dig and dig and learn everything you can about a company and understand all the financial info. That is crucial. That greatly cuts your risks.


In the short term, I would be in government bond funds. But if the states go through bankruptcy as Pence recommends, they will be fucked too.

Gold prices were low in 2000 (<$400), rising until 2011 (>$2000). Dropped abruptly in 2013 (unusual for gold) and wallowed around $1200 until 2019 when it started up again. Currently it's about $1700.

I think it's a bit too late to consider gold to be a safe haven, but who knows? It may repeat the 2000-2011 rise given the uncertainty of the times.

Tesla released first quarter numbers today and the stock has jumped 10% in after hours market from $800 to $880. This may be a good time to short the stock. I'm not much for shorting any stock though. Maybe if you hedge with options. I still am long some 200 odd shares. At the end of the month it will be long term capital gains. Bought at $190 or so. Wow! Big win! If I sell the remainder at today's price it will be a total of $320,000 earned and all long term capital gains taxed like Warren Buffet, not his secretary. I can't afford to pay the same tax rates that the hoi polloi pay. If you make lots of money, who can?

I may not like Trump's policies, but they do benefit me.



I didn't like Obama's policies, but I doubled my net worth during his
8 years.

Must have been momentum from Bush's tenure.


Re: taxes, I didn't have any tax due this year, yet I sold enough
stocks to pay my daughters $66,000 dental school tuition and supply our
living expenses. Lots of LTCGs at 0% tax rate. This year, I'll do Roth
conversions up to the top of the 12% tax bracket. So, I'll probably pay
about $10k.

Should I assume LTCG is long term capital gains? Why are they 0% taxed?


Yes, Long Term Capital Gains (LTCGs). They are taxed different, 0% tax
up to $40k for single and $80k MFJ.
If you want to communicate, please drop the abbreviations. Is it really important to you to save 14 characters when you are typing hundreds?

The $40k number is not very useful to me. It's too small. I will fit in the 15% range this year I think.


This is over and above your standard
deduction. So a married couple can have $104,400 of income with no taxes.
Also, the tax rate is 15% up to $496k and the maximum rate is 20% for
any LTCGs over $496k, That's why Buffet had a lower rate than his secretary.
It's a governmental reward for delayed gratification. (saving rather
than spending)
I am fully aware. That's why I'm waiting to cash out. This last traunch would paid well today. I could have cashed it in for even more when I cashed in another traunch. But I don't mind waiting and paying less tax.

If it were some other company I might just let it ride, but Tesla is so full of ups and downs that it is better to cash out once in awhile and ride the roller coaster again. They did well first quarter, but second quarter is going to be a bear. US production remains down and they are building another factory in Germany. They have no model Y production at all now and that has got to be a blow. They are likely to see some impact to model 3 sales when they ramp up model Y production. But we will see. I think I'm good until the end of the month and will cash out if so. Then pick a new low spot to jump back in, maybe in the fall.

--

Rick C.

-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
R

Ricky C

Guest
https://xkcd.com/2270/

--

Rick C.

-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 

Guest
Ricky C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote in news:a6efb3d1-a774-
4de2-bf70-8f7ddb95ac35@googlegroups.com:

https://xkcd.com/2270/
droll.

Almost as detrimental as picking bad leaders or watching them "get
installed" despite your pick.

Definitely easier however, than one wondering who might make the
best assassin. Especially since it was never in one's list of
previous ponderings.

I pondered a Secret Service agent with a recently deceased mother,
father or spouse, deciding how to craft an accidental discharge
'event'.

Sadly, a quick death would be way to good for the murderous
bastard.
 
A

amdx

Guest
On 4/29/2020 10:37 PM, Ricky C wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 10:41:28 PM UTC-4, amdx wrote:
On 4/29/2020 8:38 PM, Ricky C wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 9:19:55 PM UTC-4, amdx wrote:
On 4/29/2020 6:02 PM, Ricky C wrote:

Not cash, bonds are the safe alternative to stocks. Just don't buy too late after they have gone up.


That's not always true, in fact many people holding bonds had a
decrease in their value during this Covid problem.
I have a small amount in a Vanguard high yield Bond fund (VWEAX), it
lost 19.7% from 2-20 to 3-24. During the same 2-20 to 3-24 my Stock fund
(VTSAX) dropped 28.6%. Today VWEAX is down 8.9% and VTSAX is down 16.3%.

Bonds will never drop below a level defined by the intererst rate on teh bond as long as the bond is paid off. US treasury bonds and similar have virtually no risk. I think the issue with your investment is summed up in the name "high yield" which means high risk (mostly company bonds no doubt so not much different from investing directly in the company except less gain). You should have switched over to government bond funds like I did many months ago. I may have missed out on some of the appreciation in the stock based funds, but perfect timing is tough.


No the problem is not high yield, it is a bond fund, they don't
generally hold until the bond is redeemed.

You seem to misunderstand. By their nature, bonds never go down in value below some point... well, unless inflation rises astronomically. Only then would it be worth taking a hit on the price of the bond so you can get the low yield principle back to invest in something appropriately larger. Since we are not having absurdly high inflation and no other investment is looking any better, the only reason bond values would drop is the risk of default on the bonds increases, which would only be happening now if the bonds in question were high risk company bonds... like Tesla rather than US Treasury bonds.

It doesn't matter that you are investing in a fund. It's still invested in bonds.
Ya, I see it as you misunderstanding. If you have $1000 bond paying 3%
and interest rates rise to to 4%, no one will pay $1000 for your bond,
because they can buy a bond that pays 4%. They will buy your bond at a
discount, less than $1,000. Thus your bond has lost value. Of course you
can hold on to it until it pays off in it's full amount, that could be
years.



But don't let the lower volatility make you think the bond is safe.
The 10 year return of the bond fund VWEAX is 74.4% while the 10 year
return of the stock fund VTSAX is 163.3%.

That's only useful if you held the fund during that period. Does that period include the last three months? If not no point in discussing it.

If you are investing for retirement you would hold during that period.
I used today's price for the 10 year yield. So there is a point.

Does investing in the fund today guarantee the return of 74.4%? If not, that number means nothing. I'm pretty sure there are no stock funds that guarantee any return. So that number means nothing.
What you are saying is, there is no reason to invest for the future,
because returns mean nothing. Have you looked at a 30 year price chart
of the DOW , Nasdaq or S&P? They have all gone up since their inception.



I have a neighbor that is really safe, he's been safe since 9-12-2001,
right after 9-11, he moved to cash and been there since. He's lost about
30% of the buying power of his money to inflation.

That's why cash is NOT safe.

It's not in dollar bills, it is in basically a bank account or Money
Market.

Doesn't matter. Cash investments pay very, very low interest, far below inflation. Inflation eats up the principal. What's safe about that? Guaranteed depreciation. Great!
Nothing, that was my point, my neighbor only thinks he's being safe.
I guess you missed the sarcasm, even after I explained all his losses.


Also he's lost about
200% growth over 20 years. He's been safe, but it has cost him about
$400,000 dollars of growth in his nest egg.

Missing out on investment gains is never real. Notice it's always stated after the fact. I bet you missed out on the 400% return on Tesla stock (TSLA) since last year...! Because you also missed out on any number of other possible investments none of us knew were certain.

It is real, because if he didn't get scared out after 9-11 he would
have earned real money.

Shoulda, woulda, coulda... WE ALWAYS MISS OUT ON SOMETHING.


Even after this drop, I couldn't get him to put
a little money in the market.
I don't have stock in any one company, I own mostly VTSAX or VTI, they
have about 3500 different company stocks in the fund.
I do own about $2500 of Tesla through VTSAX.

Great way to minimize your profits and experience opportunity loss. I already told you about the great opportunity you missed in Tesla. At least, according to your thinking it was opportunity loss.

I say what's the difference between opportunity loss and risk mitigation? You tell me.


You choose a path and accept the gains or losses.


btw, bonds are often a counter balance to stocks, conventional wisdom is
that if stocks go down bonds go up and vise versa, this keeps your
portfolio balanced. It doesn't always work,

If anything ALWAYS worked everyone would do it.
People do do it! It is very common as you age to diversify into a more
balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds.
My comment was a response to your,

"bonds are the safe alternative to stocks"

When I first looked at investing I read a bunch. It didn't take me long to recognize most of it was pure BS. "Balanced portfolio" is one of the myths. Again, is it opportunity loss or risk mitigation?

Bonds are safer than stocks but they offer less reward. In uncertain times they (meaning crap market times) they typically pay better yeilds than stocks. So is this a crap market time or a good market time?

I only invest in companies I know something about. I usually do very well with them, but not always. I invested in one company that lost is all. I invested in another company I knew would eventually be bought out. The CEO liked his job so he held on to it a lot longer than the big investors likes, so they booted him out. Still took another four years to get the market price up to where it sold at a great return. Factoring in how long I held it I got the equivalent return a investing in real estate... lol.

All my other investments paid very well with 100% in a year or two being the lowest. You have to dig and dig and learn everything you can about a company and understand all the financial info. That is crucial. That greatly cuts your risks.


In the short term, I would be in government bond funds. But if the states go through bankruptcy as Pence recommends, they will be fucked too.

Gold prices were low in 2000 (<$400), rising until 2011 (>$2000). Dropped abruptly in 2013 (unusual for gold) and wallowed around $1200 until 2019 when it started up again. Currently it's about $1700.

I think it's a bit too late to consider gold to be a safe haven, but who knows? It may repeat the 2000-2011 rise given the uncertainty of the times.

Tesla released first quarter numbers today and the stock has jumped 10% in after hours market from $800 to $880. This may be a good time to short the stock. I'm not much for shorting any stock though. Maybe if you hedge with options. I still am long some 200 odd shares. At the end of the month it will be long term capital gains. Bought at $190 or so. Wow! Big win! If I sell the remainder at today's price it will be a total of $320,000 earned and all long term capital gains taxed like Warren Buffet, not his secretary. I can't afford to pay the same tax rates that the hoi polloi pay. If you make lots of money, who can?

I may not like Trump's policies, but they do benefit me.



I didn't like Obama's policies, but I doubled my net worth during his
8 years.

Must have been momentum from Bush's tenure.


Re: taxes, I didn't have any tax due this year, yet I sold enough
stocks to pay my daughters $66,000 dental school tuition and supply our
living expenses. Lots of LTCGs at 0% tax rate. This year, I'll do Roth
conversions up to the top of the 12% tax bracket. So, I'll probably pay
about $10k.

Should I assume LTCG is long term capital gains? Why are they 0% taxed?


Yes, Long Term Capital Gains (LTCGs). They are taxed different, 0% tax
up to $40k for single and $80k MFJ.

If you want to communicate, please drop the abbreviations. Is it really important to you to save 14 characters when you are typing hundreds?
Did you figure it out or do you want me to help you?


The $40k number is not very useful to me. It's too small. I will fit in the 15% range this year I think.
But 15% is less than you would pay if they weren't LTCGs.

This is over and above your standard
deduction. So a married couple can have $104,400 of income with no taxes.
Also, the tax rate is 15% up to $496k and the maximum rate is 20% for
any LTCGs over $496k, That's why Buffet had a lower rate than his secretary.
It's a governmental reward for delayed gratification. (saving rather
than spending)

I am fully aware. That's why I'm waiting to cash out. This last traunch would paid well today. I could have cashed it in for even more when I cashed in another traunch. But I don't mind waiting and paying less tax.

If it were some other company I might just let it ride, but Tesla is so full of ups and downs that it is better to cash out once in awhile and ride the roller coaster again. They did well first quarter, but second quarter is going to be a bear. US production remains down and they are building another factory in Germany. They have no model Y production at all now and that has got to be a blow. They are likely to see some impact to model 3 sales when they ramp up model Y production. But we will see. I think I'm good until the end of the month and will cash out if so. Then pick a new low spot to jump back in, maybe in the fall.
 
R

Ricky C

Guest
On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 8:33:08 AM UTC-4, amdx wrote:
On 4/29/2020 10:37 PM, Ricky C wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 10:41:28 PM UTC-4, amdx wrote:
On 4/29/2020 8:38 PM, Ricky C wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 9:19:55 PM UTC-4, amdx wrote:
On 4/29/2020 6:02 PM, Ricky C wrote:

Not cash, bonds are the safe alternative to stocks. Just don't buy too late after they have gone up.


That's not always true, in fact many people holding bonds had a
decrease in their value during this Covid problem.
I have a small amount in a Vanguard high yield Bond fund (VWEAX), it
lost 19.7% from 2-20 to 3-24. During the same 2-20 to 3-24 my Stock fund
(VTSAX) dropped 28.6%. Today VWEAX is down 8.9% and VTSAX is down 16..3%.

Bonds will never drop below a level defined by the intererst rate on teh bond as long as the bond is paid off. US treasury bonds and similar have virtually no risk. I think the issue with your investment is summed up in the name "high yield" which means high risk (mostly company bonds no doubt so not much different from investing directly in the company except less gain). You should have switched over to government bond funds like I did many months ago. I may have missed out on some of the appreciation in the stock based funds, but perfect timing is tough.


No the problem is not high yield, it is a bond fund, they don't
generally hold until the bond is redeemed.

You seem to misunderstand. By their nature, bonds never go down in value below some point... well, unless inflation rises astronomically. Only then would it be worth taking a hit on the price of the bond so you can get the low yield principle back to invest in something appropriately larger. Since we are not having absurdly high inflation and no other investment is looking any better, the only reason bond values would drop is the risk of default on the bonds increases, which would only be happening now if the bonds in question were high risk company bonds... like Tesla rather than US Treasury bonds.

It doesn't matter that you are investing in a fund. It's still invested in bonds.


Ya, I see it as you misunderstanding. If you have $1000 bond paying 3%
and interest rates rise to to 4%, no one will pay $1000 for your bond,
because they can buy a bond that pays 4%. They will buy your bond at a
discount, less than $1,000. Thus your bond has lost value. Of course you
can hold on to it until it pays off in it's full amount, that could be
years.
I never said they won't devalue at all. They are a haven because they won't devalue much. They are always worth something close to the principle... shy of extreme inflation which I already mentioned. Are you expecting extreme inflation during this economic downturn?

Other than high inflation, for a bond (or bond fund) to drop in value significantly there has to be significant risk that the payer would default on the bond. That doesn't happen with US Treasuries or bonds from states. Safe investments.


But don't let the lower volatility make you think the bond is safe.
The 10 year return of the bond fund VWEAX is 74.4% while the 10 year
return of the stock fund VTSAX is 163.3%.

That's only useful if you held the fund during that period. Does that period include the last three months? If not no point in discussing it.

If you are investing for retirement you would hold during that period.
I used today's price for the 10 year yield. So there is a point.

Does investing in the fund today guarantee the return of 74.4%? If not, that number means nothing. I'm pretty sure there are no stock funds that guarantee any return. So that number means nothing.


What you are saying is, there is no reason to invest for the future,
because returns mean nothing. Have you looked at a 30 year price chart
of the DOW , Nasdaq or S&P? They have all gone up since their inception.
I'm saying your numbers mean nothing because they are numbers from the past.. What is that thing that is always said about investments??? Something about the past performance and future results??? I can't remember.

There's only one way that is guaranteed to make money in stocks, buy low, sell high. If you do that, you've got it made.


I have a neighbor that is really safe, he's been safe since 9-12-2001,
right after 9-11, he moved to cash and been there since. He's lost about
30% of the buying power of his money to inflation.

That's why cash is NOT safe.

It's not in dollar bills, it is in basically a bank account or Money
Market.

Doesn't matter. Cash investments pay very, very low interest, far below inflation. Inflation eats up the principal. What's safe about that? Guaranteed depreciation. Great!


Nothing, that was my point, my neighbor only thinks he's being safe.
I guess you missed the sarcasm, even after I explained all his losses.
You mean your perceived losses?


Also he's lost about
200% growth over 20 years. He's been safe, but it has cost him about
$400,000 dollars of growth in his nest egg.

Missing out on investment gains is never real. Notice it's always stated after the fact. I bet you missed out on the 400% return on Tesla stock (TSLA) since last year...! Because you also missed out on any number of other possible investments none of us knew were certain.

It is real, because if he didn't get scared out after 9-11 he would
have earned real money.

Shoulda, woulda, coulda... WE ALWAYS MISS OUT ON SOMETHING.


Even after this drop, I couldn't get him to put
a little money in the market.
I don't have stock in any one company, I own mostly VTSAX or VTI, they
have about 3500 different company stocks in the fund.
I do own about $2500 of Tesla through VTSAX.

Great way to minimize your profits and experience opportunity loss. I already told you about the great opportunity you missed in Tesla. At least, according to your thinking it was opportunity loss.

I say what's the difference between opportunity loss and risk mitigation? You tell me.


You choose a path and accept the gains or losses.


btw, bonds are often a counter balance to stocks, conventional wisdom is
that if stocks go down bonds go up and vise versa, this keeps your
portfolio balanced. It doesn't always work,

If anything ALWAYS worked everyone would do it.
People do do it! It is very common as you age to diversify into a more
balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds.
My comment was a response to your,

"bonds are the safe alternative to stocks"

When I first looked at investing I read a bunch. It didn't take me long to recognize most of it was pure BS. "Balanced portfolio" is one of the myths. Again, is it opportunity loss or risk mitigation?

Bonds are safer than stocks but they offer less reward. In uncertain times they (meaning crap market times) they typically pay better yeilds than stocks. So is this a crap market time or a good market time?

I only invest in companies I know something about. I usually do very well with them, but not always. I invested in one company that lost is all. I invested in another company I knew would eventually be bought out. The CEO liked his job so he held on to it a lot longer than the big investors likes, so they booted him out. Still took another four years to get the market price up to where it sold at a great return. Factoring in how long I held it I got the equivalent return a investing in real estate... lol.

All my other investments paid very well with 100% in a year or two being the lowest. You have to dig and dig and learn everything you can about a company and understand all the financial info. That is crucial. That greatly cuts your risks.


In the short term, I would be in government bond funds. But if the states go through bankruptcy as Pence recommends, they will be fucked too.

Gold prices were low in 2000 (<$400), rising until 2011 (>$2000). Dropped abruptly in 2013 (unusual for gold) and wallowed around $1200 until 2019 when it started up again. Currently it's about $1700.

I think it's a bit too late to consider gold to be a safe haven, but who knows? It may repeat the 2000-2011 rise given the uncertainty of the times.

Tesla released first quarter numbers today and the stock has jumped 10% in after hours market from $800 to $880. This may be a good time to short the stock. I'm not much for shorting any stock though. Maybe if you hedge with options. I still am long some 200 odd shares. At the end of the month it will be long term capital gains. Bought at $190 or so. Wow! Big win! If I sell the remainder at today's price it will be a total of $320,000 earned and all long term capital gains taxed like Warren Buffet, not his secretary. I can't afford to pay the same tax rates that the hoi polloi pay. If you make lots of money, who can?

I may not like Trump's policies, but they do benefit me.



I didn't like Obama's policies, but I doubled my net worth during his
8 years.

Must have been momentum from Bush's tenure.


Re: taxes, I didn't have any tax due this year, yet I sold enough
stocks to pay my daughters $66,000 dental school tuition and supply our
living expenses. Lots of LTCGs at 0% tax rate. This year, I'll do Roth
conversions up to the top of the 12% tax bracket. So, I'll probably pay
about $10k.

Should I assume LTCG is long term capital gains? Why are they 0% taxed?


Yes, Long Term Capital Gains (LTCGs). They are taxed different, 0% tax
up to $40k for single and $80k MFJ.

If you want to communicate, please drop the abbreviations. Is it really important to you to save 14 characters when you are typing hundreds?


Did you figure it out or do you want me to help you?



The $40k number is not very useful to me. It's too small. I will fit in the 15% range this year I think.

But 15% is less than you would pay if they weren't LTCGs.
Yep, 15% is a lot better than 30 or 40%.


This is over and above your standard
deduction. So a married couple can have $104,400 of income with no taxes.
Also, the tax rate is 15% up to $496k and the maximum rate is 20% for
any LTCGs over $496k, That's why Buffet had a lower rate than his secretary.
It's a governmental reward for delayed gratification. (saving rather
than spending)

I am fully aware. That's why I'm waiting to cash out. This last traunch would paid well today. I could have cashed it in for even more when I cashed in another traunch. But I don't mind waiting and paying less tax.

If it were some other company I might just let it ride, but Tesla is so full of ups and downs that it is better to cash out once in awhile and ride the roller coaster again. They did well first quarter, but second quarter is going to be a bear. US production remains down and they are building another factory in Germany. They have no model Y production at all now and that has got to be a blow. They are likely to see some impact to model 3 sales when they ramp up model Y production. But we will see. I think I'm good until the end of the month and will cash out if so. Then pick a new low spot to jump back in, maybe in the fall.
Yeah, TSLA is funny. After the news the price took a 10% jump, then sloped back all day and is now 3% down from yesterday's close.

--

Rick C.

+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
D

dcaster@krl.org

Guest
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:39:40 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:00:38 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
I'd been thinking about this, but it has official status now.
"Superfluous Demand".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/superfluous-demand-free-fall-whats-upside-re-opening-small-business

My idea is that the Marxist concept of the surplus product of labor
has been going not so much to fat-cat capitalists, but to workers who
spend their wages on silly stuff like premium cable, essential scented
oils, $500 basketball seats, $70K ugly trucks and SUVs, boats that are
rarely used, cruises, wine tours, art studios, like that.

I've noticed the kinds of small businesses that are going under now
and may never come back. Many were silly things like weird nutrients,
strange dance studios, knitting specialties, psychic councelling,
exercize studios next to hilly parks, wine tasting boutiques,
hop-heavy brewpubs, gift stores full of hideous junk.

There's lots of silly electronics and phone/web apps too, highly
derivative ideas that create money-losing angel companies but that
people don't really need. Like $1200 phones.

Mo has two units at ActivSpace, a big building full of small units
rented to anyone at high cost per square foot. It's full of tattoo
artists, art studios, crafts, repair services, skin and hair care, all
kinds of marginally-profitable weird stuff. It rents month-to-month
and people are not paying.


Hmm.. OK I tend to be a frugal type. But I wonder if everyone (in US)
will be a bit more frugal after this? And that will mean less money
moving around... lower GDP...
I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

George H.
Get a copy of " A Random Walk down Wall Street " Buy it used off Abe or Amazon.

I would not recommend selling stocks right now.

Dan
--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard
 
G

George Herold

Guest
On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 10:58:25 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 4:31:25 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:

I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

Something with intrinsic value, something people want and need, is
as good as you can do for storing value. That can include partial
ownership in a solid enterprise, too.


I highly suggest that you not talk to your broker if it costs you any money.
Hi Dan, you certainly have a lot of advice. :^)
Let me first say I'm neither as smart nor as rich as you.
(again with the smile. :^)

I guess I was just feeling that it looks like a very uncertain
situation in the future. And I'd like to tuck ~1/2 our
stock money away for a while... gold seems like the traditional
choice.

George H.
Something with intrinsic value. Partial ownership in a solid enterprise .....

Sounds like buying stock.

Best if you buy an index 500 fund from Vanguard, Schwab, or Fidelity. Low cost and diversified. Even a company like IBM or GE can run into problems. Buying a fund like a index 500 pretty much guarantees you average returns, but that is pretty darn good.

Dan

If the thing has intrinsic value, and we continue to respect property
rights (the right to own something and not have it confiscated), then
things with intrinsic value should maintain their relative value,
regardless.

But if government starts taking assets -- savings, investments, land,
companies, etc. (and they have many insidious methods and pretexts for
doing so) -- then it's time to buy a big lump of gold and try nibbling
a little chunk of it every night, to see it if fills your belly.

Cheers,
James Arthur

Right. I should take my money out of the stock market... hold it
in cash for a bit... and invest in test equipment during the next
sell off.
(there's no way I can use that much test equipment. :^)

I've got a nice house, sm. barn, nice land...
Well the land is sorta crappy for farming*.. heavy clay..
But there's a beautiful creek that runs along the back end.
(1/2 of it's trees/woods and the other half is slowly turning
into trees. :^)

And then gold, Right. Is gold high now?
(or some other precious metal?)
I was going to ask my broker, I have no idea, but my
first guess is he's not going to sugg> > est gold.
(but what do I know?)

George H.

*a neighbor, ex-farmer, said it was good haying fields.
 
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