OT: Why there are no new jobs…

John Larkin wrote:
On Sat, 26 Sep 2015 14:21:04 -0700, Robert Baer
robertbaer@localnet.com> wrote:

Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-24 10:00 PM, rickman wrote:
On 9/24/2015 8:23 PM, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-24 1:37 PM, rickman wrote:

[...]


You can whine and moan all you want, it doesn't change the fact that
this is one of the very best countries in the world for starting a
business. If you don't like it, why don't you take your business
somewhere else?


That is what my former employer did, shedding tons of well-paying US
jobs in the wake.

Engineering jobs?


Most businesses do not consist of engineering jobs alone.


... Seems like plenty of folks are trying to get into the
US to have those. H-1B visas ring a bell? Obviously we still have a
very competitive market for Engineering.


Sure. Engineering jobs are plentiful here. I want to partially retire
and my clients don't let me.

H-1B is abused. People often come in because making $35k/year is still
better than making $15k where they came from. This abuse is trivially
easy to stop and I have explained numerous times how. Sad to say but it
seems the only other person that seems to understand how or is willing
to even say it is ... Donald Trump :-(


... Have you had any better offers?


Yes. From Costa Rica.

So why are you still here? Is that a better place to do your job?


a. Engineering work is plentiful in the US.

b. Especially in view of the failed policies of the current
administration I'd be more than willing to emigrate to a nice place in
the Caribbean. But I have a family and not everyone has an easy time to
learn yet anotehr language. Which you have to or will remain a foreigner
forever.
* Which alludes to a VERY sore point.
Is there any other country in the world that does not require
immigrants to learn the local language?

I thought that literacy in English was a requirement to become a
naturalized citizen.
* Seems not.

And you have to be a citizen to vote.
* Just pick a dead person, register under that name,and vote...

So why are ballots in dozens of languages?
* YES; excellent question, part of my point.

 
P E Schoen wrote:
"Joerg" wrote in message news:d6jig8Fa1dpU1@mid.individual.net...

On 2015-09-24 1:37 PM, rickman wrote:

[...]

You can whine and moan all you want, it doesn't change the fact that
this is one of the very best countries in the world for starting a
business. If you don't like it, why don't you take your business
somewhere else?

That is what my former employer did, shedding tons of well-paying US
jobs in the wake.

... Have you had any better offers?

Yes. From Costa Rica.

Here's the real deal. First, you must find a product or service that
people really need. Most people already have plenty of food (although
truly healthy food may be costly) and essentially free water. And also
most people have access to shelter, although it can be expensive. Those
are traditionally all that people actually *need*. As a civilized
society, we may say that health care is a basic need, but it is not
available to some people because of cost or inability to get insurance.

The common denominator in these necessities is money, unless society
provides them for free (paid for by those who have money).

Now consider the usual conservative whine that nobody should get
anything for free (unless they are seriously disabled) - they must get
* Why the exception? discriminate WRT one group and others WILL make a
fuss so the same discrimination also applies to them.
Pete and re-pete.

jobs and earn the money they need. So now we must examine these jobs and
how to create them. Fundamentally, jobs are created by need for the
products and services they provide. But we already have plenty of food,
and there are lots of vacant houses, and plenty of doctors and hospitals
to provide health services. However, people need money for these
necessities, and no new jobs are needed unless the demand skyrockets.

If you want to create jobs for the "common people", as some people claim
they can, you might do something like invest in building a new shopping
center that will temporarily create construction jobs, many of which
require skills and physical stamina that many people don't have, so they
are often filled by foreign labor. Then the stores open up, selling
goods that are mostly made in China, and they hire a bunch of local
sales people to sell the same stuff that is already being sold by the
other shopping center a few miles down the road. What happens?

People are attracted to the new stores and start going there, rather
than the old store that was not very busy anyway, so they gradually lay
off workers and eventually go bankrupt. These laid-off workers beg for
jobs at the new store, and may accept pay cuts for the privilege. The
construction workers spend their paychecks and then move elsewhere, so
sales start falling and workers are let go.

And then some wise guy says they can create more jobs by opening yet
another shopping center...

Meanwhile, the top management and owners siphon off the profits and make
other investments. They don't really need to start new retail
businesses, but some may do so because of subsidies and incentives and
sweetheart deals that leave them fat and happy if and when their
business goes tits up.

You may say we need more high-tech jobs, and factories to produce goods
locally instead of China and India and Mexico. But those who have the
skills to take such jobs demand high salaries, so it is not profitable
for investors to start and build such local businesses. And what sort of
goods are to be produced? Demand must be created by convincing affluent
people that they need new cars and new cell phones and TVs and bigger
houses and the latest fashions, so there are intensive advertising
campaigns to convince people they need these things and can pay by
credit. But we've seen how well that has worked, and it is worse now
that home values and real wages have stagnated.

There just isn't enough demand to support the plethora of new, "good"
jobs that conservatives are always promising by shrinking government and
reducing taxes and regulations on businesses. Government *does* create
jobs, despite right-wing dogmatic belief. And the government would
literally have to remove all regulations and give investors money to
make the prospect of running a business (especially manufacturing) in
the US.

There is plenty of wealth to go around, but most of it is stagnating in
the hands of the top 1%. Reagan's corporate tax cuts and trickle down
economics proved disastrous, but the economy turned around when he later
provided tax cuts to benefit the middle class, and then by the effects
of the collapse of the USSR, the IBM PC revolution in 1982, the stock
market/day trader phenomenon, and then the dot-com and housing bubbles.
But these mostly produced many millionaires and billionaires, and
short-term rich people who trickled back down to the lower end of the
middle class when their excesses got the better of them.

The middle class and the lower class need money so they can spend it and
stimulate the economy, rather than hoard it like the top 1%. Like it or
not, redistribution of wealth is absolutely necessary for our nation's
stability and survival. It can still be done equitably (and not equally,
as right-wing-nuts seem to fear), but continued and growing disparity
will inevitably lead to collapse and violent revolution. If every one of
the 1% would lose 90%, or even 50%, of their present wealth, they would
still be at least multi-millionaires and would hardly have their
lifestyles diminished. But the 99% would see their wealth doubled and
tripled, yet only to levels equivalent to what was normal during the 50s
and 60s when we were truly prosperous and everyone had a fair chance.

Yeah, that's a lot to read, and the conservatives probably ignored it
all, holding onto their own smug beliefs in their superiority and
absolute knowledge. I don't claim all of my statements and beliefs are
perfect - it is very complex, after all. But I think they hold much more
validity than than those who believe we can return to BAU based on their
hazy recollections of yesteryear and the era of unlimited growth and
infinite resources.

Those days are gone, "comrades", and like those jobs, they "aint coming
back"!
 
On 2015-09-28 6:55 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, 29 September 2015 07:08:14 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-26 2:21 PM, Robert Baer wrote:
Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-24 10:00 PM, rickman wrote:
On 9/24/2015 8:23 PM, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-24 1:37 PM, rickman wrote:

snip

* Which alludes to a VERY sore point. Is there any other country
in the world that does not require immigrants to learn the local
language?


Most don't. But they also generally do not accommodate them by
mandating bilingual signage everywhere which is something I'll
never understand in the US.

I am an immigrant myself and not in my wildest imagination would I
ever think that the US is "required" to accommodate my native
tongue.

Bilingual education like the leftists here want to re-introduce is
a level higher on the stupidity scale. That is the perfect recipe
to create 2nd class citizens who will have problems in the
workforce because their language skills aren't up to snuff. This
guy really knew why:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaime_Escalante

Most of the world's population is at least bilingual.

I don't believe that for one second.


... Forcing
students to learn English as well as their native language works
fine. Dumb students in the Netherlands don't speak very good English,
but they don't speak very good Dutch either. One of our cleaning
ladies would not speak English to us - we were fluent in Dutch - but
she knew quite enough English to use it with our English-speaking
guests (which rather surprised us).

English-only instruction only works if the students are pretty good
in English to start with - as they mostly are in the USA. It's a
nonsense where they aren't.

It makes perfect sense to do that and I am glad that European
universities finally understood it. There are scores of technical
courses held in English only. Which is great because engineers who do
not master English very well will have a hard time to achieve success in
their career.

But this was about students in the US at elementary school and such
where leftists demand that schools accommodate Spanish speakers who
refuse to learn English. I am squarely against that. This country has
only one official language and that is English. So they shall either
learn English or move to a country where Spanish is spoken.

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/
 
On 2015-09-28 5:57 PM, krw wrote:
On Mon, 28 Sep 2015 14:12:57 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2015-09-26 4:00 PM, krw wrote:
On Sat, 26 Sep 2015 08:17:08 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2015-09-24 10:00 PM, rickman wrote:
On 9/24/2015 8:23 PM, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-24 1:37 PM, rickman wrote:


[...]

... Seems like plenty of folks are trying to get into the
US to have those. H-1B visas ring a bell? Obviously we still have a
very competitive market for Engineering.


Sure. Engineering jobs are plentiful here. I want to partially retire
and my clients don't let me.

H-1B is abused. People often come in because making $35k/year is still
better than making $15k where they came from. This abuse is trivially
easy to stop and I have explained numerous times how. Sad to say but it
seems the only other person that seems to understand how or is willing
to even say it is ... Donald Trump :-(

My employer hires boatloads of H1B[*] programmers. I don't think
they're underpaid. The salaries range from $75K to somewhere around
$125K. Without H1Bs, all of the jobs would likely be somewhere else,
though they've started moving some of that work off-shore anyway (for
tax reasons, I'm sure).


Then you employer adheres to the letter of the law. That's what H1B is
supposed to do, bring in talent where we can't find suitable US engineers.

When I said "all of the jobs", I meant mine too. There likely
wouldn't be any presence in the US.

Exactly. If one would curb H-1B and thereby companies would be forced to
leave some employees overseas then they will eventually move the whole
operations overseas. Because it would make sense, not so much
financially but to facilitate collaboration.

This is something leftists will likely never understand. I have been
part of a few location decisions and it is mindboggling how fast and how
final that process is.

[*] All H1B job postings have to be displayed on company boards, along
with descriptions and salaries. These listings have from one to over
a hundred positions each, so there are a *lot* of jobs involved. The
number is sorta amazing since there are only 65K H1Bs allowed.


We had our ads everywhere, with the IEEE jobs board being one of the
most likely sources of good candidates. To our surprise we even found a
good analog guy though that (but needed more than one). Problem is, in
consequence another company lost a good analog guy because of us hiring
him away. So not importing one didn't help our country.

Our HR people are constantly complaining that they can't find the
right people. Obviously they're not willing to pay enough but you're
right, that would just shuffle the deck, from a national standpoint.
It wouldn't hurt the profession, though.

Above you wrote "The salaries range from $75K to somewhere around
$125K". $125k is a princely salary for an engineer, at least outside
Silicon Valley. If that doesn't attract talent then chances are there
aren't enough people available. Plus that salary level indicates a trend
towards a zero-sum game where, inside one country, Peter begins to rob
Paul and vice versa. That is not good for an economy.

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/
 
On 2015-09-29 7:45 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, 30 September 2015 00:46:52 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-28 6:31 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, 29 September 2015 07:42:09 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-26 8:04 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Sunday, 27 September 2015 01:05:57 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-24 9:34 PM, P E Schoen wrote:
"Joerg" wrote in message
news:d6jig8Fa1dpU1@mid.individual.net...
On 2015-09-24 1:37 PM, rickman wrote:

snip


But she is constrained by a constitution that puts trade
unionists on company boards. And she runs a coalition government
with the

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany

which is rather more socialist than her own Christian Democratic
Union, which is - in turn - rather more socialist than US
Democrats.


It is. One of the many reasons I am not there anymore :)

Engineering opportunity 90% of motivation, ideological compatibility
10%.

If a system is too restrictive (for example, lack of a VC environment in
Germany) then opportunity begins to shrivel up in some markets. If a
lack of ideological compatibility makes it unlikely that this ever
changes much you can end up with the effects of a brain drain.


Scandinavia is a different story where people can get taxed out
of their homes like it used to be in California until the
taxpayers revolted.

Not a story I've heard, but I'm not in the market for right-wing
anti-socialist propaganda. You really need to post a link to an
example of this terrifying behaviour.

That has nothing to do with propaganda. It is based on personal
friends whom I trust and who aren't very political.

In Scandinavia or California? ...

Both. But in California the voters revolted and got it stopped. I also
met people in other states such as New York (no ten horses will get me
to live there).


... And you got their version of the story
- which might not have been what the council told you if you asked.

What council? It is enough to see when an old person must leve their
house against their will and for tax reasons. That is flat wrong.
Therefore, I would not live in such an area.


The reason why property rates are an efficient tax is that if you
don't pay them, the council can take the house and sell it to recover
what the owners owe. This motivates the owners to pay up like few
other incentives.

People who go bust and won't recognise that they have gone bust do
tell pathetic stories - it's part of the mind-set that let them go
bsut in the first case.

These were people on fixed incomes who were taxed out of their homes. To
me that's communist and evil. Same to the majority of CAlifornia voters
who struck this down.


They do provide some central planning to get the workers
trained and educated - which is too long-term and investment
for the free market - and they provide enough social welfare
to keep the unemployed fed, housed and healthy while thye are
being retrained for the next job, and to keep their kids
well-fed and health enough to take full advantage of the
education on offer.

That mind-set does also persuade them that the free market
does require some regulation - left to it's own devices it
goes into boom and bust, with the weaker players being
bankrupted in the process until you end up with monopolies,
which have to be regulated to prevent them ripping off their
customers.

True to some extent. Not so much because of boom and bust but
because sans regulation there'd be utter envornmental
destruction. But it must have limits.

Exactly. But that goes both ways. The US currently sets the
limits a lot closer to utter environmental destruction than the
US media admit.

You haven't read EPA rules lately. For example, we have one of the
strictest pollution control rule sets in the world. Of course,
then there are certain automotive companies who ...

You have one of the most energy-intensive societies in the world. If
you burn a lot of fuel, you have to be pickier about the levels of
pollution in the combustion products than societies that burn less.

Fact is, your propaganda about "utter environmental destruction" is wrong.


If there aren't enough jobs each person has to become
creative and yes, sometimes like during a recession that
requires taking a job "below one's pay grade".

Not always that easy. When I've tried it, I've been knocked
back as "over-qualified" - "you'd just resign and go to a
better job as soon as the economy revives -"

Easily circumvented: Self-employment. Nobody ever asks me for
my educational background.

First find the people who will self-employ you. I found a few,
but never enough to keep me anything like busy.

In the beginning one has to work at it but that is the easy part.
I've explained to you how to go about that. Now I am at a point
where I sometimes jump for joy if a new project doesn't
materialize. Else I wouldn't know how to ease into retirement some
day.

Lucky you. I should have been more careful about the projects I found
interesting.

Has nothing to do with luck, it was methodically planned in the
beginning until self-employment kind of ran by itself.


In the world of analog there is very little serious competition.

I do try and sell my analog skills on the local job market - ...

That is the big mistake. There usually is no meaningful local market for
such engineering skills. But I've told you that before. One must work
country-wide and often worldwide.

Ok, I do have one local client I can reach by bicycle in 21 minutes if I
really step on it. But that's it. Most others are now out of state,
courtesy of a leftist state government that chases companies away. My
highest concentration of clients is in Southern Texas and that does not
surprise me one bit.


... people
advertise for that kind of skill set every few weeks - but at 72 I'm
not an attractive candidate. At least I don't get called in for
interview.

Working on the committee of the local branch of the IEEE might - in
theory - let me by-pass human resources - but it hasn't happened
yet.

So why is it that none of my clients ever asked about my age at the
start? I am not too far from retirement age myself but it simply does
not matter. The only times clients get a hunch about my age is during
online conferencing where the camera catches the facial wrinkles.


... Fundamentally, jobs are created by need for the
products and services they provide. But we already have
plenty of food, and there are lots of vacant houses, and
plenty of doctors and hospitals to provide health
services. However, people need money for these
necessities, and no new jobs are needed unless the demand
skyrockets.

Then we must either increase our level of value creation
in the various jobs or lower our standard of living. I
prefer the first. I also strongly believe in living within
ones means. We must be willing to accept no-growth
situations and concentrate on what we already have, not
what we want. Be thankful for it, which at least in my
prayers I am every day.

It is a normal course of events in human history that man
invents ever better method to achieve his goals with less
and less labor. Highly developed countries such as ours
will be at the top and, therefore, create the highest value
additions. xxxxx hours of work does not only result in a
train with hundred of cars full of tomatoes but instead it
can result in a shiny new aircraft. Which can then be
exported for much more money than canned tomatoes.

This naturally forces people to have to step up in their
skill sets. Here many groups lament that they are oh so
disadvantaged. Not buying it. We have to ask ourselves why
it is that Asians who often came with barely more that the
clothes on their bodies excel in making it and also score
hightes in SAT and other goals, by far. I know why that
is.

Sure. Those Asians who have the enterprise to move to a new
continent are enterprising enough to do well when they get
there, and their kids shared their parent's enterprising
attitude

There isn't much enterprising about fleeing in panic because
commies threaten to kill you. You simply flee.

Not everybody does, by any means. And the ones who make it to
places like Australia and the US usually had the wit to see the
disaster coming and got out ahead of the bulk of the fleeing
hordes, which makes it easier to get into the preferred
destinations.

No, this has to do with family integrity and family values.
Precisely what conservatives teach.

Dream on.

It surprises me that you do not understand this. Talk to them
about their values. Then talk to others where life isn't going so
well. Chances are, you can only talk to the mom because dad (or the
various dads) hightailed it a long time ago. And then you know
problem #1.

People with that kind of problem with "family values" aren't the ones
who move countries.

Sure they do. However, then it's not so much a dad who hightailed it but
a dad who got killed. Their families rallye around them, family is still
their core value.


We may be seeing the the same phenomena. You are complaining about
the defects of the stay-at-homes, and I'm pointing out that
emigrating is difficult enough to manage to filter them out.

I can't follow you there.


... And the government would literally have to remove
all regulations and give investors money to make the
prospect of running a business (especially manufacturing)
in the US.

The government only has to make things competitive and
this does not require tossing all regulation. Some of the
more stupid ones, yes. Mandating a corporate tax rate that
exceeds even that in left-leaning countries is not the way
to do that. Jacking up the price of electrity to more than
2x of other places is not the way to do that. Allowing a
predatory tort law isn't either. And so on. It's simple,
really.

There is plenty of wealth to go around, but most of it
is stagnating in the hands of the top 1%. Reagan's
corporate tax cuts and trickle down economics proved
disastrous, but the economy turned around when he later
provided tax cuts to benefit the middle class, and then
by the effects of the collapse of the USSR, the IBM PC
revolution in 1982, the stock market/day trader
phenomenon, and then the dot-com and housing bubbles. But
these mostly produced many millionaires and billionaires,
and short-term rich people who trickled back down to the
lower end of the middle class when their excesses got the
better of them.

The current administration is destroying the middle class
piece by piece.

It's not the current administration. The US has become
progressively more unequal since Reagan came to power, and
much as Obama would like to reverse the trend (as Clinton
did, to some extent) the Republican majority blocks pretty
much every move.

Nonsense. This administration is the very reason that many
potential jobs did not materialize and many existing jobs
vanished. Such as almost all production jobs at my former
employer that are now on Costa Rica.

That doesn't make the decline of the US middle class any less a
long-term trend that started around 1980.

The real trend of that started about a year after Obama took office
and we all know the reasons. Well, at least most of us do.

James Arthur sees all bad trends starting when a Democrat gets in
power.

Because they usually do.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Spirit_Level:_Why_More_Equal_Societies_Almost_Always_Do_Better

puts the start of the decline in equality in the US around 1980,
when Reagan came to power, and cites the statistics that show that
the decline of the middle class has been progressing steadily - if
not totally uniformly - since then.

The GFT - which happened under Dubbya's watch - didn't do anybody any
good, but the decline of the US middle classes has been going on
since 1980 and the GFT didn't do more than bend the curve a bit. It
certainly didn't change the direction.

I live here and my impression is very different.


Example: They tout that Obamacare "works" yet all it does
is flush people into yet another welfare system.
Government essentially pays most of the premiums and many
other costs. They started taxing the middle class health
plans, the folks that still pay their own way, which made
their health insurance even more expensive. Great wealth
redistribution, ain't it?

Granting that the money sink in the whole deal - the health
insurance industry - had to be bribed to get the legislation
through Congress - it's not surprising that that it hasn't
helped health costs much. Since the primary aim was to extend
health cover, this isn't a strong criticism of Obamacare.
Atul Gawande thinks that Obamacare is having positive effects
in practice, and writes about it (well) in the New Yorker, so
I'm inclined to trust his opinion more than yours.

The reality is very different. The "poor" who get health care
for free have an easier life. Those with "normal" Obamacare
plans faces this:

a. They have a hard time finding a doc who will take them at
all.

b. Their deductibles are so onerous that they often avoid docs
altogether and self-medicate. Because they don't have the
money.

Great.

Not great. But US health care has been a carrot dangled in front
of potential employees for a long time, and the employers are
resisting any change that will weaken their bargaining power
vis-a-vis their employees with all the enthusiasm that US
employers - in particular - can muster, including an army of
lobbyists.

Huh? It's free market here. If an employee is worth it he or she
will be able to negotiate a nice deal. If not then it's time to
train oneself towards something better or accept the facts as they
are. Sure, there have to be protections but if a government starts
mandating all kinds of perks there will be a simple consequence and
that's what we are seeing. The jobs will vanish, mostly to
overseas. The labor force participation rate drop under the current
administration speaks loud and clear.

Sure. The population is getting older, despite the fact that US
health care fails a significant proportion of the US population.

Most civilised countries don't think that health care should be
available to employers as a bargaining chip - they provide universal
health care and let employers negotiate about salaries and conditions
of work.

No, they often provide waiting lists.


The US unwillingness to provide universal health care is both
short-sighted and barbaric. On a par with tolerating female genital
mutilation. I don't think much of infant circumcision for males
either ...

After the pre-existing condition exclusion was removed (the only good
thing I ever saw coming out of Obamacare) anyone can buy health
insurance. Even before most people could. For example, I bought ours on
the free market. It's about choice. Some people make poor choices, I
personally know folks who opted to buy a bigger car and forgo health
insurance. One of them will likely lose his house soon because this
backfired when he had a major health event.


I personally met people who, in consequence, hung it up.

Every population includes special cases, who make fine
anecdotal evidence, but lack statistical effect.

Head in the sand again?

Cherry-picking convenient snippets of evidence while ignoring
bulk reality as evidenced by population-wide statistics is a
"head-in-the-sand" attitude.

Trying to persuade yourself otherwise is a fool's game.

I am able to see the writing on the wall. You may live too far away
to see it or you have the head in the sand about it so you won't
see it.

James Arthur sees a lot of "writing on the wall" which is visible to
him because he's learned a lot of political dogma which is actually
nonsensical.

Just because you don't understand something that doesn't mean it's not
there.


They quit working so much and plopped themselves into
Obamacare. As a result of this and other failed policies
our labor participation rate fell by several percentage
points. That is really dangerous because even if we get a
better administration next time around, which I seriously
hope, the labor participation rate typically never bounces
back.

Where? When?

US:
http://etfdailynews.com/2014/09/05/labor-participation-rate-drops-to-lowest-since-1978-dow-jones-industrial-average/



Which doesn't mention that the populations age structure isn't quite
what it was in 1978. It's not the whole explanation, but any
honest commentator would have mentioned it as a factor

That is not at all a factor.

Of course it's a factor, and any honest commentator would have
quantified it's contribution. Age distribution tables lend themselves
to that kind of exercise.

We have lots of youngsters who simply cannot find a decent job.
Yeah, many work, sort of. Helping at a construction site,
"temping", and so on. That's not a real job. Which is one reason
for the boomerang kid trend, "kids" who move back in with their
parents in the 30's and 40's and then show no tendency whatsoever
to leave again.

Your economy isn't yet out of the post-GFC recession.

Don't know what you mean with GFC but under the current administration
the economy will never come back to a roar for the middle class. That's
why we need a change in 2016.


Finland (click on MAX):
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/finland/labor-force-participation-rate



No comment about why. Nokia is reputed to be having a difficult time
- it's a big firm and Finland is a small country.

Have you even looked at the data? The precipitous drop obviously
happened in the early 90's. When exactly did Nokia run into
trouble?

Have you looked at the data? The Finish figures in the link as posted
show 68.3% labour participation in June 2015, and a rapid decline to
65.6% in August. The earliest figure on show is September 2014.
Nothing about the 1990s at all.

If I switch the time-scale to "Max" the series does go back to the
1990's when it did peak a bit higher, but it has bounced up and down
a few time since then.

There's no "precipitous drop".

Sure there is. Look again.

[...]


Jobs that the unions, government or predatory lawyers have
driven out of the country will usually not come back.

In a modern economy, new technology and new products mean
that jobs are vanishing all the time, and being replaced by
difference jobs in different industries. Unions actually do
serve as useful social purpose -

Yeah, like forcing employers to employ firemen on electric
locomotives.

A single driver electric locomotive is rather dangerous if he
collapses on his dead-man's handle, as has been known to happen.

Oh man. I hope nobody ever let's you design a dead-man button.

I reported what has happened with existing designs of dead-man's
handle.

Did they fire the design engineers and managers involved in such gross
negligence? How stupid must a design engineer be to make that mistake?


You snipped the the - real - example I quoted of a solo pilot who
flew his plane into the ground, killing all 150 on board. He wasn't
supposed to be a solo pilot, but had managed to lock his co-pilot
(the captain) out of the cockpit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germanwings_Flight_9525

This is bad behaviour on your part. I'm surprised and disappointed.

It has nothing to do with the topic. On a flight you must have two
persons in the cockpit at all times and that's how it has always been at
American carriers. Now Lufthansa learned why, unfortunately the hard way.

Trains are different. A rogue engineer in a locomotive cannot cause
havoc if the system is designed right. Like it is, for example in
Germany and much of Europe. Exceed the sector speed? Locomotive won't
let you. Want to blow past a stop? Locomotive overrides and applies
brakes. Plus there will be an unpleasant "discussion" at the office later.

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/
 
On Wed, 30 Sep 2015 10:18:08 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com>
wrote:

On 2015-09-29 7:45 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, 30 September 2015 00:46:52 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-28 6:31 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, 29 September 2015 07:42:09 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-26 8:04 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Sunday, 27 September 2015 01:05:57 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-24 9:34 PM, P E Schoen wrote:
"Joerg" wrote in message
news:d6jig8Fa1dpU1@mid.individual.net...
On 2015-09-24 1:37 PM, rickman wrote:

snip


But she is constrained by a constitution that puts trade
unionists on company boards. And she runs a coalition government
with the

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany

which is rather more socialist than her own Christian Democratic
Union, which is - in turn - rather more socialist than US
Democrats.


It is. One of the many reasons I am not there anymore :)

Engineering opportunity 90% of motivation, ideological compatibility
10%.


If a system is too restrictive (for example, lack of a VC environment in
Germany) then opportunity begins to shrivel up in some markets. If a
lack of ideological compatibility makes it unlikely that this ever
changes much you can end up with the effects of a brain drain.


Scandinavia is a different story where people can get taxed out
of their homes like it used to be in California until the
taxpayers revolted.

Not a story I've heard, but I'm not in the market for right-wing
anti-socialist propaganda. You really need to post a link to an
example of this terrifying behaviour.

That has nothing to do with propaganda. It is based on personal
friends whom I trust and who aren't very political.

In Scandinavia or California? ...


Both. But in California the voters revolted and got it stopped. I also
met people in other states such as New York (no ten horses will get me
to live there).

Prop 13 is weird and wonderful. I pay 1/4 the property tax of my
neighbor, who has basically the identical house, but he just bought
it.

The best tax is sales tax. If you want a Porsche or a 4K teevee, buy
it and pay the tax.








... And you got their version of the story
- which might not have been what the council told you if you asked.


What council? It is enough to see when an old person must leve their
house against their will and for tax reasons. That is flat wrong.
Therefore, I would not live in such an area.


The reason why property rates are an efficient tax is that if you
don't pay them, the council can take the house and sell it to recover
what the owners owe. This motivates the owners to pay up like few
other incentives.

People who go bust and won't recognise that they have gone bust do
tell pathetic stories - it's part of the mind-set that let them go
bsut in the first case.



These were people on fixed incomes who were taxed out of their homes. To
me that's communist and evil. Same to the majority of CAlifornia voters
who struck this down.

Right. Granny shouldn't be taxed out of her house.
 
On Tue, 29 Sep 2015 23:08:35 -0700, Robert Baer
<robertbaer@localnet.com> wrote:

P E Schoen wrote:
"Joerg" wrote in message news:d6jig8Fa1dpU1@mid.individual.net...

On 2015-09-24 1:37 PM, rickman wrote:

[...]

You can whine and moan all you want, it doesn't change the fact that
this is one of the very best countries in the world for starting a
business. If you don't like it, why don't you take your business
somewhere else?

That is what my former employer did, shedding tons of well-paying US
jobs in the wake.

... Have you had any better offers?

Yes. From Costa Rica.

Here's the real deal. First, you must find a product or service that
people really need. Most people already have plenty of food (although
truly healthy food may be costly) and essentially free water. And also
most people have access to shelter, although it can be expensive. Those
are traditionally all that people actually *need*. As a civilized
society, we may say that health care is a basic need, but it is not
available to some people because of cost or inability to get insurance.

The common denominator in these necessities is money, unless society
provides them for free (paid for by those who have money).

Now consider the usual conservative whine that nobody should get
anything for free (unless they are seriously disabled) - they must get
* Why the exception? discriminate WRT one group and others WILL make a
fuss so the same discrimination also applies to them.

Basic food could be free; that would simplify things and remove some
bad disincentives. Just keep people from nabbing tons of it to feed to
pigs and chickens.
 
On Thursday, 1 October 2015 03:18:11 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-29 7:45 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, 30 September 2015 00:46:52 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-28 6:31 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, 29 September 2015 07:42:09 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-26 8:04 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Sunday, 27 September 2015 01:05:57 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-24 9:34 PM, P E Schoen wrote:
"Joerg" wrote in message
news:d6jig8Fa1dpU1@mid.individual.net...
On 2015-09-24 1:37 PM, rickman wrote:

snip


But she is constrained by a constitution that puts trade
unionists on company boards. And she runs a coalition government
with the

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany

which is rather more socialist than her own Christian Democratic
Union, which is - in turn - rather more socialist than US
Democrats.


It is. One of the many reasons I am not there anymore :)

Engineering opportunity 90% of motivation, ideological compatibility
10%.


If a system is too restrictive (for example, lack of a VC environment in
Germany) then opportunity begins to shrivel up in some markets. If a
lack of ideological compatibility makes it unlikely that this ever
changes much you can end up with the effects of a brain drain.

The lack of a venture capitalist environment in Germany probably reflects a difference in the society, rather than the system.

The UK definitely has venture capitalists, despite being a lot more socialist than the US (if less socialist than Germany). Innovative new firms do get funded in Germany - they exist - but they don't seem to be funded by venture capitalists. You might know enough people to have some idea of how they do get funded.

Scandinavia is a different story where people can get taxed out
of their homes like it used to be in California until the
taxpayers revolted.

Not a story I've heard, but I'm not in the market for right-wing
anti-socialist propaganda. You really need to post a link to an
example of this terrifying behaviour.

That has nothing to do with propaganda. It is based on personal
friends whom I trust and who aren't very political.

In Scandinavia or California? ...

Both. But in California the voters revolted and got it stopped. I also
met people in other states such as New York (no ten horses will get me
to live there).

... And you got their version of the story
- which might not have been what the council told you if you asked.

What council? It is enough to see when an old person must leave their
house against their will and for tax reasons. That is flat wrong.
Therefore, I would not live in such an area.

You live a country where old people are expected to pay for their food and accommodation. If they get silly - demented - enough not to be able to manage their finances well enough to pay their rates, or to ask for help in paying their rates, they probably should not be be living on their own.

My mother was perfectly capable of looking after her financial affairs when she got forgetful enough to burn out saucepans on top of the oven. The people we had going into the house to help her stay there - which was what she wanted to do - were unanimous that we had to move her into an old peoples home. It was a very good old peoples home, but she didn't much like it

The reason why property rates are an efficient tax is that if you
don't pay them, the council can take the house and sell it to recover
what the owners owe. This motivates the owners to pay up like few
other incentives.

People who go bust and won't recognise that they have gone bust do
tell pathetic stories - it's part of the mind-set that let them go
bust in the first case.

These were people on fixed incomes who were taxed out of their homes. To
me that's communist and evil. Same to the majority of California voters
who struck this down.

It may be evil, but it's not Communist - their motto is "to each according to their needs, from each according to their abilities".

They do provide some central planning to get the workers
trained and educated - which is too long-term and investment
for the free market - and they provide enough social welfare
to keep the unemployed fed, housed and healthy while they are
being retrained for the next job, and to keep their kids
well-fed and health enough to take full advantage of the
education on offer.

That mind-set does also persuade them that the free market
does require some regulation - left to it's own devices it
goes into boom and bust, with the weaker players being
bankrupted in the process until you end up with monopolies,
which have to be regulated to prevent them ripping off their
customers.

True to some extent. Not so much because of boom and bust but
because sans regulation there'd be utter envornmental
destruction. But it must have limits.

Exactly. But that goes both ways. The US currently sets the
limits a lot closer to utter environmental destruction than the
US media admit.

You haven't read EPA rules lately. For example, we have one of the
strictest pollution control rule sets in the world. Of course,
then there are certain automotive companies who ...

You have one of the most energy-intensive societies in the world. If
you burn a lot of fuel, you have to be pickier about the levels of
pollution in the combustion products than societies that burn less.

Fact is, your propaganda about "utter environmental destruction" is wrong..

It's not my phrase, and it isn't one that I'd use. Minamata disease was nasty, and should have been avoided, but it wasn't an "utter environmental disaster".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minamata_disease

If there aren't enough jobs each person has to become
creative and yes, sometimes like during a recession that
requires taking a job "below one's pay grade".

Not always that easy. When I've tried it, I've been knocked
back as "over-qualified" - "you'd just resign and go to a
better job as soon as the economy revives -"

Easily circumvented: Self-employment. Nobody ever asks me for
my educational background.

First find the people who will self-employ you. I found a few,
but never enough to keep me anything like busy.

In the beginning one has to work at it but that is the easy part.
I've explained to you how to go about that. Now I am at a point
where I sometimes jump for joy if a new project doesn't
materialize. Else I wouldn't know how to ease into retirement some
day.

Lucky you. I should have been more careful about the projects I found
interesting.

Has nothing to do with luck, it was methodically planned in the
beginning until self-employment kind of ran by itself.

You methodically exploited the opportunities you had. That doesn't imply that anybody else is going to have the same kinds of opportunity to exploit. When I got made redundant in Cambridge in 1991 (after having worked there for nine years) I put myself about with some enthusiasm - and would have been perfectly happy to end up self-employed. My wife had a professorial level salary by then and could have supported both of us while I was between jobs. As it was I found temporarily employed in ten days, and got what turned into a full time permanent job after six months. When I lost my job in Venlo in 2003, I looked just as hard, but I was twelve years older, and looking in another area in another country. Somebody even more enthusiastic might have done better, but I doubt it.
In the world of analog there is very little serious competition.

I do try and sell my analog skills on the local job market - ...

That is the big mistake. There usually is no meaningful local market for
such engineering skills. But I've told you that before. One must work
country-wide and often worldwide.

That may be, but local employers do advertise for analog skills fairly regularly - the more sophisticated ads may also mentioned mixed-signal processing, which is something else I've done quite a bit of - but they don't want to talk to 72-yer-olds about it.

Sydney is a big city

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydneys-population-to-reach-5-million-in-a-year-20150331-1mbyut.html

and accommodates some 20% of Australia's population and rather more of it's high-tech busiensses

Ok, I do have one local client I can reach by bicycle in 21 minutes if I
really step on it. But that's it. Most others are now out of state,
courtesy of a leftist state government that chases companies away. My
highest concentration of clients is in Southern Texas and that does not
surprise me one bit.

Who'd want to live in South Texas?

... people
advertise for that kind of skill set every few weeks - but at 72 I'm
not an attractive candidate. At least I don't get called in for
interview.

Working on the committee of the local branch of the IEEE might - in
theory - let me by-pass human resources - but it hasn't happened
yet.

So why is it that none of my clients ever asked about my age at the
start? I am not too far from retirement age myself but it simply does
not matter. The only times clients get a hunch about my age is during
online conferencing where the camera catches the facial wrinkles.

Turning 65 does seem to trigger something in Human Factors Departments.

... Fundamentally, jobs are created by need for the
products and services they provide. But we already have
plenty of food, and there are lots of vacant houses, and
plenty of doctors and hospitals to provide health
services. However, people need money for these
necessities, and no new jobs are needed unless the demand
skyrockets.

Then we must either increase our level of value creation
in the various jobs or lower our standard of living. I
prefer the first. I also strongly believe in living within
ones means. We must be willing to accept no-growth
situations and concentrate on what we already have, not
what we want. Be thankful for it, which at least in my
prayers I am every day.

It is a normal course of events in human history that man
invents ever better method to achieve his goals with less
and less labor. Highly developed countries such as ours
will be at the top and, therefore, create the highest value
additions. xxxxx hours of work does not only result in a
train with hundred of cars full of tomatoes but instead it
can result in a shiny new aircraft. Which can then be
exported for much more money than canned tomatoes.

This naturally forces people to have to step up in their
skill sets. Here many groups lament that they are oh so
disadvantaged. Not buying it. We have to ask ourselves why
it is that Asians who often came with barely more that the
clothes on their bodies excel in making it and also score
hightes in SAT and other goals, by far. I know why that
is.

Sure. Those Asians who have the enterprise to move to a new
continent are enterprising enough to do well when they get
there, and their kids shared their parent's enterprising
attitude

There isn't much enterprising about fleeing in panic because
commies threaten to kill you. You simply flee.

Not everybody does, by any means. And the ones who make it to
places like Australia and the US usually had the wit to see the
disaster coming and got out ahead of the bulk of the fleeing
hordes, which makes it easier to get into the preferred
destinations.

No, this has to do with family integrity and family values.
Precisely what conservatives teach.

Dream on.

It surprises me that you do not understand this. Talk to them
about their values. Then talk to others where life isn't going so
well. Chances are, you can only talk to the mom because dad (or the
various dads) hightailed it a long time ago. And then you know
problem #1.

People with that kind of problem with "family values" aren't the ones
who move countries.

Sure they do. However, then it's not so much a dad who hightailed it but
a dad who got killed. Their families rally around them, family is still
their core value.

We may be seeing the the same phenomena. You are complaining about
the defects of the stay-at-homes, and I'm pointing out that
emigrating is difficult enough to manage to filter them out.

I can't follow you there.

You see feckless people who haven't moved on to something better. If the US were stricken by something that made immigration the best option, it's not an option the feckless would take.

... And the government would literally have to remove
all regulations and give investors money to make the
prospect of running a business (especially manufacturing)
in the US.

The government only has to make things competitive and
this does not require tossing all regulation. Some of the
more stupid ones, yes. Mandating a corporate tax rate that
exceeds even that in left-leaning countries is not the way
to do that. Jacking up the price of electrity to more than
2x of other places is not the way to do that. Allowing a
predatory tort law isn't either. And so on. It's simple,
really.

There is plenty of wealth to go around, but most of it
is stagnating in the hands of the top 1%. Reagan's
corporate tax cuts and trickle down economics proved
disastrous, but the economy turned around when he later
provided tax cuts to benefit the middle class, and then
by the effects of the collapse of the USSR, the IBM PC
revolution in 1982, the stock market/day trader
phenomenon, and then the dot-com and housing bubbles. But
these mostly produced many millionaires and billionaires,
and short-term rich people who trickled back down to the
lower end of the middle class when their excesses got the
better of them.

The current administration is destroying the middle class
piece by piece.

It's not the current administration. The US has become
progressively more unequal since Reagan came to power, and
much as Obama would like to reverse the trend (as Clinton
did, to some extent) the Republican majority blocks pretty
much every move.

Nonsense. This administration is the very reason that many
potential jobs did not materialize and many existing jobs
vanished. Such as almost all production jobs at my former
employer that are now on Costa Rica.

That doesn't make the decline of the US middle class any less a
long-term trend that started around 1980.

The real trend of that started about a year after Obama took office
and we all know the reasons. Well, at least most of us do.

James Arthur sees all bad trends starting when a Democrat gets in
power.

Because they usually do.

Sure. And there really is a Santa Claus.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Spirit_Level:_Why_More_Equal_Societies_Almost_Always_Do_Better

puts the start of the decline in equality in the US around 1980,
when Reagan came to power, and cites the statistics that show that
the decline of the middle class has been progressing steadily - if
not totally uniformly - since then.

The GFT - which happened under Dubbya's watch - didn't do anybody any
good, but the decline of the US middle classes has been going on
since 1980 and the GFT didn't do more than bend the curve a bit. It
certainly didn't change the direction.

I live here and my impression is very different.

The company you keep may have something to do with that. Statisticians work with statistics that cover the whole of the population. Personal impressions are necessarily local.

Example: They tout that Obamacare "works" yet all it does
is flush people into yet another welfare system.
Government essentially pays most of the premiums and many
other costs. They started taxing the middle class health
plans, the folks that still pay their own way, which made
their health insurance even more expensive. Great wealth
redistribution, ain't it?

Granting that the money sink in the whole deal - the health
insurance industry - had to be bribed to get the legislation
through Congress - it's not surprising that that it hasn't
helped health costs much. Since the primary aim was to extend
health cover, this isn't a strong criticism of Obamacare.
Atul Gawande thinks that Obamacare is having positive effects
in practice, and writes about it (well) in the New Yorker, so
I'm inclined to trust his opinion more than yours.

The reality is very different. The "poor" who get health care
for free have an easier life. Those with "normal" Obamacare
plans faces this:

a. They have a hard time finding a doc who will take them at
all.

b. Their deductibles are so onerous that they often avoid docs
altogether and self-medicate. Because they don't have the
money.

Great.

Not great. But US health care has been a carrot dangled in front
of potential employees for a long time, and the employers are
resisting any change that will weaken their bargaining power
vis-a-vis their employees with all the enthusiasm that US
employers - in particular - can muster, including an army of
lobbyists.

Huh? It's free market here. If an employee is worth it he or she
will be able to negotiate a nice deal. If not then it's time to
train oneself towards something better or accept the facts as they
are. Sure, there have to be protections but if a government starts
mandating all kinds of perks there will be a simple consequence and
that's what we are seeing. The jobs will vanish, mostly to
overseas. The labor force participation rate drop under the current
administration speaks loud and clear.

Sure. The population is getting older, despite the fact that US
health care fails a significant proportion of the US population.

Most civilised countries don't think that health care should be
available to employers as a bargaining chip - they provide universal
health care and let employers negotiate about salaries and conditions
of work.

No, they often provide waiting lists.

It happens. Margaret Thatcher slashed the funding for the UK National Health in order to drive people onto private health insurance, and it took Tony Blair's Labour administration some years of substantial spending to get it back into shape. The UK National Health Service is cheap - about 7% of GDP - and the French, Dutch and German services are more expensive at about 10% of GDP, and provide much faster service. They don't perform significantly better, but patients have an easier time.
The US unwillingness to provide universal health care is both
short-sighted and barbaric. On a par with tolerating female genital
mutilation. I don't think much of infant circumcision for males
either ...

After the pre-existing condition exclusion was removed (the only good
thing I ever saw coming out of Obamacare) anyone can buy health
insurance. Even before, most people could. For example, I bought ours on
the free market. It's about choice. Some people make poor choices, I
personally know folks who opted to buy a bigger car and forgo health
insurance. One of them will likely lose his house soon because this
backfired when he had a major health event.

That's a personal disaster. If he'd got an infectious disease and put off spending the money it cost to visit his doctor, it could have started an epidemic, which could have been a national disaster. Universal health care isn't just about individual cases but also about stopping epidemics early.

I personally met people who, in consequence, hung it up.

Every population includes special cases, who make fine
anecdotal evidence, but lack statistical effect.

Head in the sand again?

Cherry-picking convenient snippets of evidence while ignoring
bulk reality as evidenced by population-wide statistics is a
"head-in-the-sand" attitude.

Trying to persuade yourself otherwise is a fool's game.

I am able to see the writing on the wall. You may live too far away
to see it or you have the head in the sand about it so you won't
see it.

James Arthur sees a lot of "writing on the wall" which is visible to
him because he's learned a lot of political dogma which is actually
nonsensical.

Just because you don't understand something that doesn't mean it's not
there.

Just because you've persuaded yourself something is true, it doesn't follow that more objective observers will share your understanding.

Your crack about "waiting lists" is a standard right-wing objection to all forms of universal health care. There are quite a few universal health care systems that do provide pretty much on-demand treatment - this implies spare capacity in the system, which is an inefficiency. Even the much-maligned UK National Health Service doesn't have waiting lists for emergency treatment, but people waiting - uncomfortably - for elective surgery have been known to have been bumped out of the queue by an emergency case.

They quit working so much and plopped themselves into
Obamacare. As a result of this and other failed policies
our labor participation rate fell by several percentage
points. That is really dangerous because even if we get a
better administration next time around, which I seriously
hope, the labor participation rate typically never bounces
back.

Where? When?

US:
http://etfdailynews.com/2014/09/05/labor-participation-rate-drops-to-lowest-since-1978-dow-jones-industrial-average/

Which doesn't mention that the populations age structure isn't quite
what it was in 1978. It's not the whole explanation, but any
honest commentator would have mentioned it as a factor

That is not at all a factor.

Of course it's a factor, and any honest commentator would have
quantified it's contribution. Age distribution tables lend themselves
to that kind of exercise.

We have lots of youngsters who simply cannot find a decent job.
Yeah, many work, sort of. Helping at a construction site,
"temping", and so on. That's not a real job. Which is one reason
for the boomerang kid trend, "kids" who move back in with their
parents in the 30's and 40's and then show no tendency whatsoever
to leave again.

Your economy isn't yet out of the post-GFC recession.

Don't know what you mean with GFC but under the current administration
the economy will never come back to a roar for the middle class. That's
why we need a change in 2016.

Global Financial Crisis - the current name for the Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis, once it had taken down everybody else's economies as well.

The US middle class has been being shafted by successive administrations since 1980 - more enthusiastically by Republican administrations than Democrats. Obama may be a Demoncrat, but Congress is Republican, and you do need to change them to Democrats in 2016. It may take more than that to reverse the decline of the US middle class, which strikes me as more driven by the defects of the US political system, which is rather too good at serving the short-term interests of the people who own the country, and correspondingly bad at serving the long-term interests of the country as whole, middle classes included.

Finland (click on MAX):
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/finland/labor-force-participation-rate

No comment about why. Nokia is reputed to be having a difficult time
- it's a big firm and Finland is a small country.

Have you even looked at the data? The precipitous drop obviously
happened in the early 90's. When exactly did Nokia run into
trouble?

Have you looked at the data? The Finish figures in the link as posted
show 68.3% labour participation in June 2015, and a rapid decline to
65.6% in August. The earliest figure on show is September 2014.
Nothing about the 1990s at all.

If I switch the time-scale to "Max" the series does go back to the
1990's when it did peak a bit higher, but it has bounced up and down
a few time since then.

There's no "precipitous drop".

Sure there is. Look again.

Rubbish.

Jobs that the unions, government or predatory lawyers have
driven out of the country will usually not come back.

In a modern economy, new technology and new products mean
that jobs are vanishing all the time, and being replaced by
difference jobs in different industries. Unions actually do
serve as useful social purpose -

Yeah, like forcing employers to employ firemen on electric
locomotives.

A single driver electric locomotive is rather dangerous if he
collapses on his dead-man's handle, as has been known to happen.

Oh man. I hope nobody ever let's you design a dead-man button.

I reported what has happened with existing designs of dead-man's
handle.

Did they fire the design engineers and managers involved in such gross
negligence? How stupid must a design engineer be to make that mistake?

They were probably dead by the time it happened.

You snipped the the - real - example I quoted of a solo pilot who
flew his plane into the ground, killing all 150 on board. He wasn't
supposed to be a solo pilot, but had managed to lock his co-pilot
(the captain) out of the cockpit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germanwings_Flight_9525

This is bad behaviour on your part. I'm surprised and disappointed.

It has nothing to do with the topic. On a flight you must have two
persons in the cockpit at all times and that's how it has always been at
American carriers. Now Lufthansa learned why, unfortunately the hard way.

Trains are different. A rogue engineer in a locomotive cannot cause
havoc if the system is designed right. Like it is, for example in
Germany and much of Europe. Exceed the sector speed? Locomotive won't
let you. Want to blow past a stop? Locomotive overrides and applies
brakes. Plus there will be an unpleasant "discussion" at the office later..

If the relevant "dead man's handles" are designed right. There's usually a way of lying to a sub-system - or having it fail in the wrong way at the wrong moment - that can kill a lot of people.

There have been fatal accidents on even the German railways in recent years..

http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/jul/25/how-safe-are-europe-railways

puts the most recent one at the 11th June 2003, but that is a 2013 report, and I think that there's been at least one since then. This isn't the one I thought that I could remember.

http://www.dw.com/en/fatal-german-train-crash-kills-two-near-osnabr%C3%BCck/a-18454071

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
On Wed, 30 Sep 2015 19:24:19 -0700, John Larkin
<jjlarkin@highlandtechnology.com> Gave us:

snip

The Brat is working on her MBA at Berkeley. She reports that there is
a lot of discussion of offshoring, with the emphasis that it often
doesn't work very well.

I've seen high-tech companies move manufacturing and engineering
offshore with pretty disastrous results. I guess it does make sense
for Apple to use Chinese child labor at 17 cents an hour to make $600
iPhones.

If one has a product with SMPS in it, for example, and one is planning
on making xM number counts of the product, THEN it is a good idea to
partner up with an existing chinese power supply maker. Someone who has
many years experience with making PC supplies, for instance, and years
of in-house engineering making standards conformal units.
 
On Wed, 30 Sep 2015 09:37:27 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com>
wrote:

On 2015-09-28 5:57 PM, krw wrote:
On Mon, 28 Sep 2015 14:12:57 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2015-09-26 4:00 PM, krw wrote:
On Sat, 26 Sep 2015 08:17:08 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2015-09-24 10:00 PM, rickman wrote:
On 9/24/2015 8:23 PM, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-24 1:37 PM, rickman wrote:


[...]

... Seems like plenty of folks are trying to get into the
US to have those. H-1B visas ring a bell? Obviously we still have a
very competitive market for Engineering.


Sure. Engineering jobs are plentiful here. I want to partially retire
and my clients don't let me.

H-1B is abused. People often come in because making $35k/year is still
better than making $15k where they came from. This abuse is trivially
easy to stop and I have explained numerous times how. Sad to say but it
seems the only other person that seems to understand how or is willing
to even say it is ... Donald Trump :-(

My employer hires boatloads of H1B[*] programmers. I don't think
they're underpaid. The salaries range from $75K to somewhere around
$125K. Without H1Bs, all of the jobs would likely be somewhere else,
though they've started moving some of that work off-shore anyway (for
tax reasons, I'm sure).


Then you employer adheres to the letter of the law. That's what H1B is
supposed to do, bring in talent where we can't find suitable US engineers.

When I said "all of the jobs", I meant mine too. There likely
wouldn't be any presence in the US.


Exactly. If one would curb H-1B and thereby companies would be forced to
leave some employees overseas then they will eventually move the whole
operations overseas. Because it would make sense, not so much
financially but to facilitate collaboration.

This is something leftists will likely never understand. I have been
part of a few location decisions and it is mindboggling how fast and how
final that process is.


[*] All H1B job postings have to be displayed on company boards, along
with descriptions and salaries. These listings have from one to over
a hundred positions each, so there are a *lot* of jobs involved. The
number is sorta amazing since there are only 65K H1Bs allowed.


We had our ads everywhere, with the IEEE jobs board being one of the
most likely sources of good candidates. To our surprise we even found a
good analog guy though that (but needed more than one). Problem is, in
consequence another company lost a good analog guy because of us hiring
him away. So not importing one didn't help our country.

Our HR people are constantly complaining that they can't find the
right people. Obviously they're not willing to pay enough but you're
right, that would just shuffle the deck, from a national standpoint.
It wouldn't hurt the profession, though.


Above you wrote "The salaries range from $75K to somewhere around
$125K". $125k is a princely salary for an engineer, at least outside
Silicon Valley. If that doesn't attract talent then chances are there
aren't enough people available. Plus that salary level indicates a trend
towards a zero-sum game where, inside one country, Peter begins to rob
Paul and vice versa. That is not good for an economy.

The Brat is working on her MBA at Berkeley. She reports that there is
a lot of discussion of offshoring, with the emphasis that it often
doesn't work very well.

I've seen high-tech companies move manufacturing and engineering
offshore with pretty disastrous results. I guess it does make sense
for Apple to use Chinese child labor at 17 cents an hour to make $600
iPhones.
 
On Friday, 2 October 2015 01:05:17 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-30 12:26 PM, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 30 Sep 2015 10:18:08 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2015-09-29 7:45 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, 30 September 2015 00:46:52 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-28 6:31 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, 29 September 2015 07:42:09 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:

[...]

Scandinavia is a different story where people can get taxed out
of their homes like it used to be in California until the
taxpayers revolted.

Not a story I've heard, but I'm not in the market for right-wing
anti-socialist propaganda. You really need to post a link to an
example of this terrifying behaviour.

That has nothing to do with propaganda. It is based on personal
friends whom I trust and who aren't very political.

In Scandinavia or California? ...


Both. But in California the voters revolted and got it stopped. I also
met people in other states such as New York (no ten horses will get me
to live there).

Prop 13 is weird and wonderful. I pay 1/4 the property tax of my
neighbor, who has basically the identical house, but he just bought
it.


Property taxes are un-American. IMHO they should at least be based on
square footage and acreage (not on sales price) _and_ capped at 2%
yearly increase max or inflation, whichever is lower. Then it's fair to
everyone including the person who has to move.

Why? Property taxes have the advantage that the property doesn't move, and everybody can see roughly what it's worth.

Thatcher tried to get rid of them in the UK - by replacing them with a flat per-head council tax, which was manifestly unfair in the other direction.

There's a strong suspicion she was aiming at the predictable side-effect, which was to get the poor Labour-voters off the electoral rolls, in which she did succeed to a useful degree.

The replacement graded property into something like five bands, which the rich appreciated. the top band wasn't all that high compared with what they'd been paying on the real value of their property.

The best tax is sales tax. If you want a Porsche or a 4K teevee, buy
it and pay the tax.

It's a regressive tax. All but the most extravagant of the rich pay out a lower proportion of their income in sales tax than do poorer people. You can fudge what get's sales taxed, but the rich like sales taxes better than the merely well-off.

And then when you sell the Porsche the next guy must pay sales tax
again. A double-dipping grab at its finest.

The rich folks would buy the Porsche in Oregon, pay no tax and
"officially" keep it there for a while.

Difficult to do with property.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
On Thursday, October 1, 2015 at 12:13:10 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 10/01/2015 12:05 PM, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 01 Oct 2015 08:05:20 -0700, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-30 12:26 PM, John Larkin wrote:

The best tax is sales tax. If you want a Porsche or a 4K teevee, buy
it and pay the tax.


And then when you sell the Porsche the next guy must pay sales tax
again. A double-dipping grab at its finest.

There is an argument that used stuff should not be taxed. That lets
poor people buy used things cheaper.


The rich folks would buy the Porsche in Oregon, pay no tax and
"officially" keep it there for a while.

I was thinking about a national sales tax to replace the income tax,
and especially replace multiple business taxes. Imports now have a
huge advantage over USA products, and a sales tax on both would
equalize things and create US jobs.

But politicians don't use logic, or work for the greater good, so it
won't happen.

The main problem is the double taxation of accumulated assets due to the
change. It wouldn't be such a problem with houses, say, since
everybody's income would effectively go up to match the tax. Normal
IRAs and 401(k)s would be okay too, since they're pre-tax. With
after-tax financial assets (including Roth IRAs) it would be a real
blow. It would also hurt LLCs as well (such as mine), since I can
expense everything I buy for the business.

The Fair Tax is a proposal for a nat'l sales tax like John's, that would replace
all other federal taxes (corporate, SS, Medicare, personal income, etc.). The FT
has a 'prebate' provision that sends every citizen a fixed check--everyone gets
the same, regardless of how rich or poor--for the tax on their basic living
expense, then taxes all sales of NEW goods (not used) at XX%, XX ~=22. That's
a simple way of capturing XX percent of GDP to fund the federal government, with
a minimum of hassles.

It has the (transitional) problem you mentioned of taxing post-tax assets like
Roth IRAs, which I brought up in person with one of the plan's authors.
His reply was that they expected politicians to work those things out. My
suggestion was a tax-free debit card you could use, equal to your Roth IRA
assets.

The bigger problem is that progressives want a national sales tax as an *extra*
tax to increase the burden of government, and to keep the existing mess too.
Preventing that requires repealing the 16th Amendment, no small task.

Cheers,
James Arthur
 
On Thursday, October 1, 2015 at 12:57:40 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Thursday, October 1, 2015 at 12:13:10 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 10/01/2015 12:05 PM, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 01 Oct 2015 08:05:20 -0700, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-30 12:26 PM, John Larkin wrote:

The best tax is sales tax. If you want a Porsche or a 4K teevee, buy
it and pay the tax.


And then when you sell the Porsche the next guy must pay sales tax
again. A double-dipping grab at its finest.

There is an argument that used stuff should not be taxed. That lets
poor people buy used things cheaper.


The rich folks would buy the Porsche in Oregon, pay no tax and
"officially" keep it there for a while.

I was thinking about a national sales tax to replace the income tax,
and especially replace multiple business taxes. Imports now have a
huge advantage over USA products, and a sales tax on both would
equalize things and create US jobs.

But politicians don't use logic, or work for the greater good, so it
won't happen.

The main problem is the double taxation of accumulated assets due to the
change. It wouldn't be such a problem with houses, say, since
everybody's income would effectively go up to match the tax. Normal
IRAs and 401(k)s would be okay too, since they're pre-tax. With
after-tax financial assets (including Roth IRAs) it would be a real
blow. It would also hurt LLCs as well (such as mine), since I can
expense everything I buy for the business.

The Fair Tax is a proposal for a nat'l sales tax like John's, that would replace
all other federal taxes (corporate, SS, Medicare, personal income, etc.). The FT
has a 'prebate' provision that sends every citizen a fixed check--everyone gets
the same, regardless of how rich or poor--for the tax on their basic living
expense, then taxes all sales of NEW goods (not used) at XX%, XX ~=22. That's
a simple way of capturing XX percent of GDP to fund the federal government, with
a minimum of hassles.

It sounds OK.. but I see a lot of details that are tricky.
Do I pay tax when I buy a new home? (but not a used house?)
What makes a house used? (Say I build my own home and then
sell it.. in ten years, in one year, in one week?)

If I have a plumber come in and do some work, I pay no tax.(?)
What about if I hire someone to make furniture for me?
I use it for one year and then sell it. tax or no tax?

And then the whole business/ OEM thing. As a business
I buy some stuff to put in a product. Do I pay tax on the stuff?
Then I sell it. How much tax... do we get the whole VAT type
thing in Europe?

What about taxes on assets, stocks, bonds, companies, rental property?
It seems to me I can spin all sorts of "deals" where by I add value
but pay no tax. I just fear that those with lots of money
will be able to "game" the system, where us poor slobs in the
middle class carry the load.

Mind you I have no problem changing our current tax structure.

(First thing (as I've said before) is get rid of the payroll tax that
employer's pay on the behave of their employee's... Everyone* gets a
~7% raise and then see's their SS, medicare etc taxes go up by 7%...
But at least they see the money on their W2.)

George H.

*Oh everyone but Phil H, and Joerg and Tim W and all the other
self employed... They already get to see their "full bill" :^)

It has the (transitional) problem you mentioned of taxing post-tax assets like
Roth IRAs, which I brought up in person with one of the plan's authors.
His reply was that they expected politicians to work those things out. My
suggestion was a tax-free debit card you could use, equal to your Roth IRA
assets.

The bigger problem is that progressives want a national sales tax as an *extra*
tax to increase the burden of government, and to keep the existing mess too.
Preventing that requires repealing the 16th Amendment, no small task.

Cheers,
James Arthur
 
On 2015-09-30 8:01 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, 1 October 2015 03:18:11 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-29 7:45 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, 30 September 2015 00:46:52 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-28 6:31 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, 29 September 2015 07:42:09 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-26 8:04 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Sunday, 27 September 2015 01:05:57 UTC+10, Joerg
wrote:
On 2015-09-24 9:34 PM, P E Schoen wrote:
"Joerg" wrote in message
news:d6jig8Fa1dpU1@mid.individual.net...
On 2015-09-24 1:37 PM, rickman wrote:

snip


But she is constrained by a constitution that puts trade
unionists on company boards. And she runs a coalition
government with the

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany



which is rather more socialist than her own Christian Democratic
Union, which is - in turn - rather more socialist than US
Democrats.


It is. One of the many reasons I am not there anymore :)

Engineering opportunity 90% of motivation, ideological
compatibility 10%.


If a system is too restrictive (for example, lack of a VC
environment in Germany) then opportunity begins to shrivel up in
some markets. If a lack of ideological compatibility makes it
unlikely that this ever changes much you can end up with the
effects of a brain drain.

The lack of a venture capitalist environment in Germany probably
reflects a difference in the society, rather than the system.

A lot of things were and probably some are still not legal. Aside from
banks not being allowed to have VC branches we also were not allowed to
have stock option accounts. So in order to make it legit all of us had
to have accounts in the US. That was really strange.


The UK definitely has venture capitalists, despite being a lot more
socialist than the US (if less socialist than Germany). Innovative
new firms do get funded in Germany - they exist - but they don't seem
to be funded by venture capitalists. You might know enough people to
have some idea of how they do get funded.

I have tried, in Germany, no dice.


Scandinavia is a different story where people can get taxed
out of their homes like it used to be in California until
the taxpayers revolted.

Not a story I've heard, but I'm not in the market for
right-wing anti-socialist propaganda. You really need to post
a link to an example of this terrifying behaviour.

That has nothing to do with propaganda. It is based on
personal friends whom I trust and who aren't very political.

In Scandinavia or California? ...

Both. But in California the voters revolted and got it stopped. I
also met people in other states such as New York (no ten horses
will get me to live there).

... And you got their version of the story - which might not have
been what the council told you if you asked.

What council? It is enough to see when an old person must leave
their house against their will and for tax reasons. That is flat
wrong. Therefore, I would not live in such an area.

You live a country where old people are expected to pay for their
food and accommodation. If they get silly - demented - enough not to
be able to manage their finances well enough to pay their rates, or
to ask for help in paying their rates, they probably should not be be
living on their own.

It is _not_ the government who shall make that decision purely by
financial extortion. Because that is exactly what excessive property
taxes are.


My mother was perfectly capable of looking after her financial
affairs when she got forgetful enough to burn out saucepans on top of
the oven. The people we had going into the house to help her stay
there - which was what she wanted to do - were unanimous that we had
to move her into an old peoples home. It was a very good old peoples
home, but she didn't much like it

Sure, when something dangerous happens the move becomes necessary. Has
nothing to do with taxing grandma out of her home.


The reason why property rates are an efficient tax is that if
you don't pay them, the council can take the house and sell it to
recover what the owners owe. This motivates the owners to pay up
like few other incentives.

People who go bust and won't recognise that they have gone bust
do tell pathetic stories - it's part of the mind-set that let
them go bust in the first case.

These were people on fixed incomes who were taxed out of their
homes. To me that's communist and evil. Same to the majority of
California voters who struck this down.

It may be evil, but it's not Communist - their motto is "to each
according to their needs, from each according to their abilities".

No, their motto is "everything to the state and state worker, crumbs to
everyone else".


They do provide some central planning to get the workers
trained and educated - which is too long-term and
investment for the free market - and they provide enough
social welfare to keep the unemployed fed, housed and
healthy while they are being retrained for the next job,
and to keep their kids well-fed and health enough to take
full advantage of the education on offer.

That mind-set does also persuade them that the free
market does require some regulation - left to it's own
devices it goes into boom and bust, with the weaker
players being bankrupted in the process until you end up
with monopolies, which have to be regulated to prevent
them ripping off their customers.

True to some extent. Not so much because of boom and bust
but because sans regulation there'd be utter envornmental
destruction. But it must have limits.

Exactly. But that goes both ways. The US currently sets the
limits a lot closer to utter environmental destruction than
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
the US media admit.

You haven't read EPA rules lately. For example, we have one of
the strictest pollution control rule sets in the world. Of
course, then there are certain automotive companies who ...

You have one of the most energy-intensive societies in the world.
If you burn a lot of fuel, you have to be pickier about the
levels of pollution in the combustion products than societies
that burn less.

Fact is, your propaganda about "utter environmental destruction" is
wrong.

It's not my phrase, and it isn't one that I'd use. Minamata disease
was nasty, and should have been avoided, but it wasn't an "utter
environmental disaster".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minamata_disease

Don't distract, you used it. See above.


If there aren't enough jobs each person has to become
creative and yes, sometimes like during a recession
that requires taking a job "below one's pay grade".

Not always that easy. When I've tried it, I've been
knocked back as "over-qualified" - "you'd just resign and
go to a better job as soon as the economy revives -"

Easily circumvented: Self-employment. Nobody ever asks me
for my educational background.

First find the people who will self-employ you. I found a
few, but never enough to keep me anything like busy.

In the beginning one has to work at it but that is the easy
part. I've explained to you how to go about that. Now I am at a
point where I sometimes jump for joy if a new project doesn't
materialize. Else I wouldn't know how to ease into retirement
some day.

Lucky you. I should have been more careful about the projects I
found interesting.

Has nothing to do with luck, it was methodically planned in the
beginning until self-employment kind of ran by itself.

You methodically exploited the opportunities you had. That doesn't
imply that anybody else is going to have the same kinds of
opportunity to exploit.

Sure they did. But many of my mates decided to take the easier route,
putting them in a field where there is lots of competition or at the
mercy of some large employer.


... When I got made redundant in Cambridge in
1991 (after having worked there for nine years) I put myself about
with some enthusiasm - and would have been perfectly happy to end up
self-employed. My wife had a professorial level salary by then and
could have supported both of us while I was between jobs. As it was I
found temporarily employed in ten days, and got what turned into a
full time permanent job after six months. When I lost my job in Venlo
in 2003, I looked just as hard, but I was twelve years older, and
looking in another area in another country. Somebody even more
enthusiastic might have done better, but I doubt it.

You probably didn't try hard enough. Yes, you do have to make cold calls
and such. I don't like those so I mainly used proposals and that sure
did the trick, some of them resulting in many years of fruitful
assignments. Proposals require a ton of unpaid work but at least
initially it needs to be done.

In the world of analog there is very little serious
competition.

I do try and sell my analog skills on the local job market - ...

That is the big mistake. There usually is no meaningful local
market for such engineering skills. But I've told you that before.
One must work country-wide and often worldwide.

That may be, but local employers do advertise for analog skills
fairly regularly - the more sophisticated ads may also mentioned
mixed-signal processing, which is something else I've done quite a
bit of - but they don't want to talk to 72-yer-olds about it.

As I've said before that is the wrong approach. They will hire at that
age if they see a skill that nobody else has ever offered them. If you
don't have that to offer then your only option is self-employment.


Sydney is a big city

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydneys-population-to-reach-5-million-in-a-year-20150331-1mbyut.html

and accommodates some 20% of Australia's population and rather more
of it's high-tech busiensses

That isn't the tech hot bed. Hot tech areas are Silicon Valley, Houston,
Taipei, and so on. If you are sincere about finding work you need to
look beyond the fence. Way beyond.


Ok, I do have one local client I can reach by bicycle in 21 minutes
if I really step on it. But that's it. Most others are now out of
state, courtesy of a leftist state government that chases companies
away. My highest concentration of clients is in Southern Texas and
that does not surprise me one bit.

Who'd want to live in South Texas?

I sure don't. Yet I work for them. In this day and age of Internet,
online conferencing and all that one does not have to live where the
company is. In fact, that was already the case over 20 years ago except
then communications costs were quite high. Today it's $39 a month for
GoToMeeting plus broadband Internet.


... people advertise for that kind of skill set every few weeks -
but at 72 I'm not an attractive candidate. At least I don't get
called in for interview.

Working on the committee of the local branch of the IEEE might -
in theory - let me by-pass human resources - but it hasn't
happened yet.

So why is it that none of my clients ever asked about my age at
the start? I am not too far from retirement age myself but it
simply does not matter. The only times clients get a hunch about my
age is during online conferencing where the camera catches the
facial wrinkles.

Turning 65 does seem to trigger something in Human Factors
Departments.

Again, you have to take HR out of the whole process. I never deal with
HR. I deal with the CEO or the VP of R&D, and for the rest with
accounting. In large companies that insist on purchase orders also with
the purchasing department but that's rare these days.

The only times I've had much to do with HR was when they asked me to
conduct interviews for them because they trusted my instincts to spot a
good future engineer.


... Fundamentally, jobs are created by need for the
products and services they provide. But we already
have plenty of food, and there are lots of vacant
houses, and plenty of doctors and hospitals to
provide health services. However, people need money
for these necessities, and no new jobs are needed
unless the demand skyrockets.

Then we must either increase our level of value
creation in the various jobs or lower our standard of
living. I prefer the first. I also strongly believe in
living within ones means. We must be willing to accept
no-growth situations and concentrate on what we already
have, not what we want. Be thankful for it, which at
least in my prayers I am every day.

It is a normal course of events in human history that
man invents ever better method to achieve his goals
with less and less labor. Highly developed countries
such as ours will be at the top and, therefore, create
the highest value additions. xxxxx hours of work does
not only result in a train with hundred of cars full of
tomatoes but instead it can result in a shiny new
aircraft. Which can then be exported for much more
money than canned tomatoes.

This naturally forces people to have to step up in
their skill sets. Here many groups lament that they are
oh so disadvantaged. Not buying it. We have to ask
ourselves why it is that Asians who often came with
barely more that the clothes on their bodies excel in
making it and also score hightes in SAT and other
goals, by far. I know why that is.

Sure. Those Asians who have the enterprise to move to a
new continent are enterprising enough to do well when
they get there, and their kids shared their parent's
enterprising attitude

There isn't much enterprising about fleeing in panic
because commies threaten to kill you. You simply flee.

Not everybody does, by any means. And the ones who make it
to places like Australia and the US usually had the wit to
see the disaster coming and got out ahead of the bulk of the
fleeing hordes, which makes it easier to get into the
preferred destinations.

No, this has to do with family integrity and family
values. Precisely what conservatives teach.

Dream on.

It surprises me that you do not understand this. Talk to them
about their values. Then talk to others where life isn't going
so well. Chances are, you can only talk to the mom because dad
(or the various dads) hightailed it a long time ago. And then
you know problem #1.

People with that kind of problem with "family values" aren't the
ones who move countries.

Sure they do. However, then it's not so much a dad who hightailed
it but a dad who got killed. Their families rally around them,
family is still their core value.

We may be seeing the the same phenomena. You are complaining
about the defects of the stay-at-homes, and I'm pointing out
that emigrating is difficult enough to manage to filter them
out.

I can't follow you there.

You see feckless people who haven't moved on to something better. If
the US were stricken by something that made immigration the best
option, it's not an option the feckless would take.

I don't see what that's got to do with family values. A good family
nucleus is what gives young folks the tools to succeed in life and not
just for their career.

[...]


James Arthur sees all bad trends starting when a Democrat gets
in power.

Because they usually do.

Sure. And there really is a Santa Claus.

I know you've got your head in the sand about it.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Spirit_Level:_Why_More_Equal_Societies_Almost_Always_Do_Better



puts the start of the decline in equality in the US around 1980,
when Reagan came to power, and cites the statistics that show
that the decline of the middle class has been progressing
steadily - if not totally uniformly - since then.

The GFT - which happened under Dubbya's watch - didn't do anybody
any good, but the decline of the US middle classes has been going
on since 1980 and the GFT didn't do more than bend the curve a
bit. It certainly didn't change the direction.

I live here and my impression is very different.

The company you keep may have something to do with that.
Statisticians work with statistics that cover the whole of the
population. Personal impressions are necessarily local.

When you do volunteering you get around. Statistics only go so far. Like
weather forcasts that are hit and miss.

[...]


Most civilised countries don't think that health care should be
available to employers as a bargaining chip - they provide
universal health care and let employers negotiate about salaries
and conditions of work.

No, they often provide waiting lists.

It happens. Margaret Thatcher slashed the funding for the UK National
Health in order to drive people onto private health insurance, and it
took Tony Blair's Labour administration some years of substantial
spending to get it back into shape. The UK National Health Service is
cheap - about 7% of GDP - and the French, Dutch and German services
are more expensive at about 10% of GDP, and provide much faster
service. They don't perform significantly better, but patients have
an easier time.

And now they have waiting lists just like Canadians do. This is why many
Canadians quietly carry Mayo Cards so they can get better health care in
the US.

The US unwillingness to provide universal health care is both
short-sighted and barbaric. On a par with tolerating female
genital mutilation. I don't think much of infant circumcision for
males either ...

After the pre-existing condition exclusion was removed (the only
good thing I ever saw coming out of Obamacare) anyone can buy
health insurance. Even before, most people could. For example, I
bought ours on the free market. It's about choice. Some people make
poor choices, I personally know folks who opted to buy a bigger car
and forgo health insurance. One of them will likely lose his house
soon because this backfired when he had a major health event.

That's a personal disaster. If he'd got an infectious disease and put
off spending the money it cost to visit his doctor, it could have
started an epidemic, which could have been a national disaster.
Universal health care isn't just about individual cases but also
about stopping epidemics early.

Don't veer off again. This is about being able to obtain health care and
he could have gotten health care pre-Obamacare. Just like I could, and did.


I personally met people who, in consequence, hung it
up.

Every population includes special cases, who make fine
anecdotal evidence, but lack statistical effect.

Head in the sand again?

Cherry-picking convenient snippets of evidence while
ignoring bulk reality as evidenced by population-wide
statistics is a "head-in-the-sand" attitude.

Trying to persuade yourself otherwise is a fool's game.

I am able to see the writing on the wall. You may live too far
away to see it or you have the head in the sand about it so you
won't see it.

James Arthur sees a lot of "writing on the wall" which is visible
to him because he's learned a lot of political dogma which is
actually nonsensical.

Just because you don't understand something that doesn't mean it's
not there.

Just because you've persuaded yourself something is true, it doesn't
follow that more objective observers will share your understanding.

Your crack about "waiting lists" is a standard right-wing objection
to all forms of universal health care.

Nonsense. Even a _Canadian_ judge has ruled and literally said that
"Access to a waiting list isn't access to good health care". I've worked
long enough in med devices to know what and how much is lacking up north.

[...]


They quit working so much and plopped themselves into
Obamacare. As a result of this and other failed
policies our labor participation rate fell by several
percentage points. That is really dangerous because
even if we get a better administration next time
around, which I seriously hope, the labor participation
rate typically never bounces back.

Where? When?

US:
http://etfdailynews.com/2014/09/05/labor-participation-rate-drops-to-lowest-since-1978-dow-jones-industrial-average/



Which doesn't mention that the populations age structure isn't quite
what it was in 1978. It's not the whole explanation, but any
honest commentator would have mentioned it as a factor

That is not at all a factor.

Of course it's a factor, and any honest commentator would have
quantified it's contribution. Age distribution tables lend
themselves to that kind of exercise.

We have lots of youngsters who simply cannot find a decent
job. Yeah, many work, sort of. Helping at a construction site,
"temping", and so on. That's not a real job. Which is one
reason for the boomerang kid trend, "kids" who move back in
with their parents in the 30's and 40's and then show no
tendency whatsoever to leave again.

Your economy isn't yet out of the post-GFC recession.

Don't know what you mean with GFC but under the current
administration the economy will never come back to a roar for the
middle class. That's why we need a change in 2016.

Global Financial Crisis - the current name for the Sub-Prime Mortgage
Crisis, once it had taken down everybody else's economies as well.

The US middle class has been being shafted by successive
administrations since 1980 - more enthusiastically by Republican
administrations than Democrats. Obama may be a Demoncrat, but
Congress is Republican, ...

It wasn' until the tea party movement and that Dem era before was where
major damage has been done. Some of it permanent.

[...]

Finland (click on MAX):
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/finland/labor-force-participation-rate



No comment about why. Nokia is reputed to be having a difficult time
- it's a big firm and Finland is a small country.

Have you even looked at the data? The precipitous drop
obviously happened in the early 90's. When exactly did Nokia
run into trouble?

Have you looked at the data? The Finish figures in the link as
posted show 68.3% labour participation in June 2015, and a rapid
decline to 65.6% in August. The earliest figure on show is
September 2014. Nothing about the 1990s at all.

If I switch the time-scale to "Max" the series does go back to
the 1990's when it did peak a bit higher, but it has bounced up
and down a few time since then.

There's no "precipitous drop".

Sure there is. Look again.

Rubbish.

Ah yes, head in sand again.


Jobs that the unions, government or predatory lawyers
have driven out of the country will usually not come
back.

In a modern economy, new technology and new products
mean that jobs are vanishing all the time, and being
replaced by difference jobs in different industries.
Unions actually do serve as useful social purpose -

Yeah, like forcing employers to employ firemen on electric
locomotives.

A single driver electric locomotive is rather dangerous if
he collapses on his dead-man's handle, as has been known to
happen.

Oh man. I hope nobody ever let's you design a dead-man button.

I reported what has happened with existing designs of dead-man's
handle.

Did they fire the design engineers and managers involved in such
gross negligence? How stupid must a design engineer be to make that
mistake?

They were probably dead by the time it happened.

No. For example, the team that designed the dead-man circuitry in the
light rail train that bolted off driverless here in Sacramento sure is
still alive. Yet nothing is likely going to happen to them. Instead teh
state instuituted a nonsensical licensing law that protects ... nothing.

http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/transportation/article36953934.html

Quote "He jammed a screwdriver under the vehicle's "deadman" switch,
disabling that mechanism". That is engineering incompetence par excellence.


You snipped the the - real - example I quoted of a solo pilot
who flew his plane into the ground, killing all 150 on board. He
wasn't supposed to be a solo pilot, but had managed to lock his
co-pilot (the captain) out of the cockpit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germanwings_Flight_9525

This is bad behaviour on your part. I'm surprised and
disappointed.

It has nothing to do with the topic. On a flight you must have two
persons in the cockpit at all times and that's how it has always
been at American carriers. Now Lufthansa learned why, unfortunately
the hard way.

Trains are different. A rogue engineer in a locomotive cannot
cause havoc if the system is designed right. Like it is, for
example in Germany and much of Europe. Exceed the sector speed?
Locomotive won't let you. Want to blow past a stop? Locomotive
overrides and applies brakes. Plus there will be an unpleasant
"discussion" at the office later.

If the relevant "dead man's handles" are designed right.

It has been known since decades how to do that right.


... There's
usually a way of lying to a sub-system - or having it fail in the
wrong way at the wrong moment - that can kill a lot of people.

Have you never designed a watchdog circuit? Or safety-critical stuff
where override had to be prevented?


There have been fatal accidents on even the German railways in recent
years.

http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/jul/25/how-safe-are-europe-railways

puts the most recent one at the 11th June 2003, but that is a 2013
report, and I think that there's been at least one since then. This
isn't the one I thought that I could remember.

http://www.dw.com/en/fatal-german-train-crash-kills-two-near-osnabr%C3%BCck/a-18454071

Caused by a truck illegally crossing tracks. No surprise.

There is always something technical that can go wrong, particularly at
high speed. And there are areas where technical barriers to wrongful
behavior of the train engineer are not implemented or when other
vehicles collide with trains. Fact is, safety technology such as Indusi
is there and can easily be implemented. My grandpa explained it to me
when I was a kid. Because he was a train engineer and the technology
exists since the days of steam locomotives:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punktf%C3%B6rmige_Zugbeeinflussung

What this part of the discussion was about though was unions insisting
on keeping jobs that became obsolete. Like firemen on electric
locomotives. That's just plain wrong.

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/
 
On 2015-09-30 12:26 PM, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 30 Sep 2015 10:18:08 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2015-09-29 7:45 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, 30 September 2015 00:46:52 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-28 6:31 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, 29 September 2015 07:42:09 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:

[...]

Scandinavia is a different story where people can get taxed out
of their homes like it used to be in California until the
taxpayers revolted.

Not a story I've heard, but I'm not in the market for right-wing
anti-socialist propaganda. You really need to post a link to an
example of this terrifying behaviour.

That has nothing to do with propaganda. It is based on personal
friends whom I trust and who aren't very political.

In Scandinavia or California? ...


Both. But in California the voters revolted and got it stopped. I also
met people in other states such as New York (no ten horses will get me
to live there).

Prop 13 is weird and wonderful. I pay 1/4 the property tax of my
neighbor, who has basically the identical house, but he just bought
it.

Property taxes are un-American. IMHO they should at least be based on
square footage and acreage (not on sales price) _and_ capped at 2%
yearly increase max or inflation, whichever is lower. Then it's fair to
everyone including the person who has to move.


The best tax is sales tax. If you want a Porsche or a 4K teevee, buy
it and pay the tax.

And then when you sell the Porsche the next guy must pay sales tax
again. A double-dipping grab at its finest.

The rich folks would buy the Porsche in Oregon, pay no tax and
"officially" keep it there for a while.

[...]

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/
 
On Thu, 01 Oct 2015 08:05:20 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com>
wrote:

On 2015-09-30 12:26 PM, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 30 Sep 2015 10:18:08 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2015-09-29 7:45 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, 30 September 2015 00:46:52 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-28 6:31 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, 29 September 2015 07:42:09 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:

[...]

Scandinavia is a different story where people can get taxed out
of their homes like it used to be in California until the
taxpayers revolted.

Not a story I've heard, but I'm not in the market for right-wing
anti-socialist propaganda. You really need to post a link to an
example of this terrifying behaviour.

That has nothing to do with propaganda. It is based on personal
friends whom I trust and who aren't very political.

In Scandinavia or California? ...


Both. But in California the voters revolted and got it stopped. I also
met people in other states such as New York (no ten horses will get me
to live there).

Prop 13 is weird and wonderful. I pay 1/4 the property tax of my
neighbor, who has basically the identical house, but he just bought
it.


Property taxes are un-American. IMHO they should at least be based on
square footage and acreage (not on sales price) _and_ capped at 2%
yearly increase max or inflation, whichever is lower. Then it's fair to
everyone including the person who has to move.


The best tax is sales tax. If you want a Porsche or a 4K teevee, buy
it and pay the tax.


And then when you sell the Porsche the next guy must pay sales tax
again. A double-dipping grab at its finest.

There is an argument that used stuff should not be taxed. That lets
poor people buy used things cheaper.

The rich folks would buy the Porsche in Oregon, pay no tax and
"officially" keep it there for a while.

I was thinking about a national sales tax to replace the income tax,
and especially replace multiple business taxes. Imports now have a
huge advantage over USA products, and a sales tax on both would
equalize things and create US jobs.

But politicians don't use logic, or work for the greater good, so it
won't happen.
 
On 10/01/2015 12:05 PM, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 01 Oct 2015 08:05:20 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2015-09-30 12:26 PM, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 30 Sep 2015 10:18:08 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2015-09-29 7:45 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, 30 September 2015 00:46:52 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-28 6:31 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, 29 September 2015 07:42:09 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:

[...]

Scandinavia is a different story where people can get taxed out
of their homes like it used to be in California until the
taxpayers revolted.

Not a story I've heard, but I'm not in the market for right-wing
anti-socialist propaganda. You really need to post a link to an
example of this terrifying behaviour.

That has nothing to do with propaganda. It is based on personal
friends whom I trust and who aren't very political.

In Scandinavia or California? ...


Both. But in California the voters revolted and got it stopped. I also
met people in other states such as New York (no ten horses will get me
to live there).

Prop 13 is weird and wonderful. I pay 1/4 the property tax of my
neighbor, who has basically the identical house, but he just bought
it.


Property taxes are un-American. IMHO they should at least be based on
square footage and acreage (not on sales price) _and_ capped at 2%
yearly increase max or inflation, whichever is lower. Then it's fair to
everyone including the person who has to move.


The best tax is sales tax. If you want a Porsche or a 4K teevee, buy
it and pay the tax.


And then when you sell the Porsche the next guy must pay sales tax
again. A double-dipping grab at its finest.

There is an argument that used stuff should not be taxed. That lets
poor people buy used things cheaper.


The rich folks would buy the Porsche in Oregon, pay no tax and
"officially" keep it there for a while.

I was thinking about a national sales tax to replace the income tax,
and especially replace multiple business taxes. Imports now have a
huge advantage over USA products, and a sales tax on both would
equalize things and create US jobs.

But politicians don't use logic, or work for the greater good, so it
won't happen.

The main problem is the double taxation of accumulated assets due to the
change. It wouldn't be such a problem with houses, say, since
everybody's income would effectively go up to match the tax. Normal
IRAs and 401(k)s would be okay too, since they're pre-tax. With
after-tax financial assets (including Roth IRAs) it would be a real
blow. It would also hurt LLCs as well (such as mine), since I can
expense everything I buy for the business.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs


--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics

160 North State Road #203
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

hobbs at electrooptical dot net
http://electrooptical.net
 
On Thursday, October 1, 2015 at 2:23:19 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Thursday, October 1, 2015 at 12:57:40 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Thursday, October 1, 2015 at 12:13:10 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 10/01/2015 12:05 PM, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 01 Oct 2015 08:05:20 -0700, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-30 12:26 PM, John Larkin wrote:

The best tax is sales tax. If you want a Porsche or a 4K teevee, buy
it and pay the tax.


And then when you sell the Porsche the next guy must pay sales tax
again. A double-dipping grab at its finest.

There is an argument that used stuff should not be taxed. That lets
poor people buy used things cheaper.


The rich folks would buy the Porsche in Oregon, pay no tax and
"officially" keep it there for a while.

I was thinking about a national sales tax to replace the income tax,
and especially replace multiple business taxes. Imports now have a
huge advantage over USA products, and a sales tax on both would
equalize things and create US jobs.

But politicians don't use logic, or work for the greater good, so it
won't happen.

The main problem is the double taxation of accumulated assets due to the
change. It wouldn't be such a problem with houses, say, since
everybody's income would effectively go up to match the tax. Normal
IRAs and 401(k)s would be okay too, since they're pre-tax. With
after-tax financial assets (including Roth IRAs) it would be a real
blow. It would also hurt LLCs as well (such as mine), since I can
expense everything I buy for the business.

The Fair Tax is a proposal for a nat'l sales tax like John's, that would replace
all other federal taxes (corporate, SS, Medicare, personal income, etc.). The FT
has a 'prebate' provision that sends every citizen a fixed check--everyone gets
the same, regardless of how rich or poor--for the tax on their basic living
expense, then taxes all sales of NEW goods (not used) at XX%, XX ~=22. That's
a simple way of capturing XX percent of GDP to fund the federal government, with
a minimum of hassles.

It sounds OK.. but I see a lot of details that are tricky.
Do I pay tax when I buy a new home?

Yes.

(but not a used house?) Correct. It was already taxed.

What makes a house used? (Say I build my own home and then
sell it.. in ten years, in one year, in one week?)

Dunno. Would have to set by reasonable rules.

> If I have a plumber come in and do some work, I pay no tax.(?)

Taxed, I think.

What about if I hire someone to make furniture for me?
I use it for one year and then sell it. tax or no tax?

Taxed, IIRC.

And then the whole business/ OEM thing. As a business
I buy some stuff to put in a product. Do I pay tax on the stuff?

No. Only retail sales. Businesses wouldn't pay taxes at all.

Then I sell it. How much tax... do we get the whole VAT type
thing in Europe?

What about taxes on assets, stocks, bonds, companies, rental property?

No tax, IIRC, except rentals, where I'm not sure.

It seems to me I can spin all sorts of "deals" where by I add value
but pay no tax. I just fear that those with lots of money
will be able to "game" the system, where us poor slobs in the
middle class carry the load.

Mind you I have no problem changing our current tax structure.

(First thing (as I've said before) is get rid of the payroll tax that
employer's pay on the behave of their employee's... Everyone* gets a
~7% raise and then see's their SS, medicare etc taxes go up by 7%...
But at least they see the money on their W2.)

I like that a lot. I like for things to be honest, out in the open.
Currently they're not.

I do not like the Fair Tax for two reasons, first, because I don't like the idea
of every single American coming to expect a regular check from the government
(for the "prebate"). I think that's bad psychology.

Second, it's unlikely to happen because the 16th has to be repealed first, and
there's an enormous danger that doesn't happen and we wind up with just a new
tax.

An easy compromise that's doable would be a flat income tax with no
fancy gimmicks (ideally not even the popular deductions--they're all handouts
for special interests, even us). Or, if need be, two tiers based on income
and one fixed large deduction. Even that's a lot better.

That would be an easy way to save, oh, <breaks out envelope> 130 million
returns filed, times two hours' labor to fill out, hire the tax guy, drive it in, etc. ... ~230 million man-hours' of labor a year.

A friend showed me his dad's return from the '50's. The front had a line for
his income, some lines to multiply by his rate, then a line for the amount he
owed. IT WAS A POSTCARD--not kidding--and that was his official IRS return.

The economy would soar, and it's free.

Cheers,
James Arthur
 
On 2/10/2015 1:00 AM, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-30 8:01 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Thursday, 1 October 2015 03:18:11 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-29 7:45 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, 30 September 2015 00:46:52 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-28 6:31 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, 29 September 2015 07:42:09 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-26 8:04 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Sunday, 27 September 2015 01:05:57 UTC+10, Joerg
wrote:
On 2015-09-24 9:34 PM, P E Schoen wrote:
"Joerg" wrote in message
news:d6jig8Fa1dpU1@mid.individual.net...
On 2015-09-24 1:37 PM, rickman wrote:

<snip>

It is. One of the many reasons I am not there anymore :)

Engineering opportunity 90% of motivation, ideological
compatibility 10%.

If a system is too restrictive (for example, lack of a VC
environment in Germany) then opportunity begins to shrivel up in
some markets. If a lack of ideological compatibility makes it
unlikely that this ever changes much you can end up with the
effects of a brain drain.

The lack of a venture capitalist environment in Germany probably
reflects a difference in the society, rather than the system.

A lot of things were and probably some are still not legal. Aside from
banks not being allowed to have VC branches we also were not allowed to
have stock option accounts. So in order to make it legit all of us had
to have accounts in the US. That was really strange.

In other words, you couldn't have equity in the way that you could have
had equity if the firm had been in the US. Better lawyers would probably
have been able to work out something much the same thing with less
conflict with German law.

The UK definitely has venture capitalists, despite being a lot more
socialist than the US (if less socialist than Germany). Innovative
new firms do get funded in Germany - they exist - but they don't seem
to be funded by venture capitalists. You might know enough people to
have some idea of how they do get funded.

I have tried, in Germany, no dice.

Other people seem to have been able to work something out.

Scandinavia is a different story where people can get taxed
out of their homes like it used to be in California until
the taxpayers revolted.

Not a story I've heard, but I'm not in the market for
right-wing anti-socialist propaganda. You really need to post
a link to an example of this terrifying behaviour.

That has nothing to do with propaganda. It is based on
personal friends whom I trust and who aren't very political.

In Scandinavia or California? ...

Both. But in California the voters revolted and got it stopped. I
also met people in other states such as New York (no ten horses
will get me to live there).

... And you got their version of the story - which might not have
been what the council told you if you asked.

What council? It is enough to see when an old person must leave
their house against their will and for tax reasons. That is flat
wrong. Therefore, I would not live in such an area.

You live a country where old people are expected to pay for their
food and accommodation. If they get silly - demented - enough not to
be able to manage their finances well enough to pay their rates, or
to ask for help in paying their rates, they probably should not be be
living on their own.

It is _not_ the government who shall make that decision purely by
financial extortion. Because that is exactly what excessive property
taxes are.

Property taxes pay for local services. You definition of "excessive"
doesn't seem to include any evidence that the council was spending too
much money, or trying to get itl all from a narrow band of property owners.

My mother was perfectly capable of looking after her financial
affairs when she got forgetful enough to burn out saucepans on top of
the oven. The people we had going into the house to help her stay
there - which was what she wanted to do - were unanimous that we had
to move her into an old peoples home. It was a very good old peoples
home, but she didn't much like it

Sure, when something dangerous happens the move becomes necessary. Has
nothing to do with taxing grandma out of her home.

If grandma has lost her grip on her finances, she'll get taxed out of
her home, if she hasn't had it stolen out from under her first.

The reason why property rates are an efficient tax is that if
you don't pay them, the council can take the house and sell it to
recover what the owners owe. This motivates the owners to pay up
like few other incentives.

People who go bust and won't recognise that they have gone bust
do tell pathetic stories - it's part of the mind-set that let
them go bust in the first case.

These were people on fixed incomes who were taxed out of their
homes. To me that's communist and evil. Same to the majority of
California voters who struck this down.

It may be evil, but it's not Communist - their motto is "to each
according to their needs, from each according to their abilities".

No, their motto is "everything to the state and state worker, crumbs to
everyone else".

Wrong. That's what James Arthur wants everybody to think. When they
aren't living up to Karl Marx's original formulation - which was an
ideal - they become crooks in government, and their nominal ideology
becomes irrelevant.

They do provide some central planning to get the workers
trained and educated - which is too long-term and
investment for the free market - and they provide enough
social welfare to keep the unemployed fed, housed and
healthy while they are being retrained for the next job,
and to keep their kids well-fed and health enough to take
full advantage of the education on offer.

That mind-set does also persuade them that the free
market does require some regulation - left to it's own
devices it goes into boom and bust, with the weaker
players being bankrupted in the process until you end up
with monopolies, which have to be regulated to prevent
them ripping off their customers.

True to some extent. Not so much because of boom and bust
but because sans regulation there'd be utter environmental
destruction. But it must have limits.

Exactly. But that goes both ways. The US currently sets the
limits a lot closer to utter environmental destruction than
the US media admit.

You haven't read EPA rules lately. For example, we have one of
the strictest pollution control rule sets in the world. Of
course, then there are certain automotive companies who ...

You have one of the most energy-intensive societies in the world.
If you burn a lot of fuel, you have to be pickier about the
levels of pollution in the combustion products than societies
that burn less.

Fact is, your propaganda about "utter environmental destruction" is
wrong.

It's not my phrase, and it isn't one that I'd use. Minamata disease
was nasty, and should have been avoided, but it wasn't an "utter
environmental disaster".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minamata_disease

Don't distract, you used it. See above.

I quoted it within the thread. I didn't originate in this thread, and
I don't think that it is a good formulation of what can - and too
often has - gone wrong.

If there aren't enough jobs each person has to become
creative and yes, sometimes like during a recession
that requires taking a job "below one's pay grade".

Not always that easy. When I've tried it, I've been
knocked back as "over-qualified" - "you'd just resign and
go to a better job as soon as the economy revives -"

Easily circumvented: Self-employment. Nobody ever asks me
for my educational background.

First find the people who will self-employ you. I found a
few, but never enough to keep me anything like busy.

In the beginning one has to work at it but that is the easy
part. I've explained to you how to go about that. Now I am at a
point where I sometimes jump for joy if a new project doesn't
materialize. Else I wouldn't know how to ease into retirement
some day.

Lucky you. I should have been more careful about the projects I
found interesting.

Has nothing to do with luck, it was methodically planned in the
beginning until self-employment kind of ran by itself.

You methodically exploited the opportunities you had. That doesn't
imply that anybody else is going to have the same kinds of
opportunity to exploit.

Sure they did. But many of my mates decided to take the easier route,
putting them in a field where there is lots of competition or at the
mercy of some large employer.

... When I got made redundant in Cambridge in
1991 (after having worked there for nine years) I put myself about
with some enthusiasm - and would have been perfectly happy to end up
self-employed. My wife had a professorial level salary by then and
could have supported both of us while I was between jobs. As it was I
found temporarily employed in ten days, and got what turned into a
full time permanent job after six months. When I lost my job in Venlo
in 2003, I looked just as hard, but I was twelve years older, and
looking in another area in another country. Somebody even more
enthusiastic might have done better, but I doubt it.

You probably didn't try hard enough.

Probably. But my guess is that I couldn't have tried hard enough to
succeed, and I didn't put much effort into prospects that didn't look
particularly promising.

Yes, you do have to make cold calls
and such. I don't like those so I mainly used proposals and that sure
did the trick, some of them resulting in many years of fruitful
assignments. Proposals require a ton of unpaid work but at least
initially it needs to be done.

In the world of analog there is very little serious
competition.

I do try and sell my analog skills on the local job market - ...

That is the big mistake. There usually is no meaningful local
market for such engineering skills. But I've told you that before.
One must work country-wide and often worldwide.

That may be, but local employers do advertise for analog skills
fairly regularly - the more sophisticated ads may also mentioned
mixed-signal processing, which is something else I've done quite a
bit of - but they don't want to talk to 72-yer-olds about it.

As I've said before that is the wrong approach. They will hire at that
age if they see a skill that nobody else has ever offered them. If you
don't have that to offer then your only option is self-employment.

They won't see a skill that nobody else has ever offered them. They
won't be looking for it, and they won't understand that it is being
exercised. Employers tend have a very crude idea of what they are
buying.

Sydney is a big city

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydneys-population-to-reach-5-million-in-a-year-20150331-1mbyut.html

and accommodates some 20% of Australia's population and rather more
of it's high-tech businesses

That isn't the tech hot bed. Hot tech areas are Silicon Valley, Houston,
Taipei, and so on. If you are sincere about finding work you need to
look beyond the fence. Way beyond.

It's a tech hot bed for a lot of stuff. WiFi got invented in Melbourne,
and one of the local universities is doing leading edge stuff on quantum
computation. Silicon Valley has been a tech hot-bed for quite a while,
but the ARM processor was developed in Cambridge UK, and AMSL makes
photolithography machines in Eindhoven. There are more active areas than
you think.

Ok, I do have one local client I can reach by bicycle in 21 minutes
if I really step on it. But that's it. Most others are now out of
state, courtesy of a leftist state government that chases companies
away. My highest concentration of clients is in Southern Texas and
that does not surprise me one bit.

Who'd want to live in South Texas?

I sure don't. Yet I work for them. In this day and age of Internet,
online conferencing and all that one does not have to live where the
company is. In fact, that was already the case over 20 years ago except
then communications costs were quite high. Today it's $39 a month for
GoToMeeting plus broadband Internet.

... people advertise for that kind of skill set every few weeks -
but at 72 I'm not an attractive candidate. At least I don't get
called in for interview.

Working on the committee of the local branch of the IEEE might -
in theory - let me by-pass human resources - but it hasn't
happened yet.

So why is it that none of my clients ever asked about my age at
the start? I am not too far from retirement age myself but it
simply does not matter. The only times clients get a hunch about my
age is during online conferencing where the camera catches the
facial wrinkles.

Turning 65 does seem to trigger something in Human Factors
Departments.

Again, you have to take HR out of the whole process. I never deal with
HR. I deal with the CEO or the VP of R&D, and for the rest with
accounting. In large companies that insist on purchase orders also with
the purchasing department but that's rare these days.

The only times I've had much to do with HR was when they asked me to
conduct interviews for them because they trusted my instincts to spot a
good future engineer.

That would be better HR than any I've dealt with, from either side of
the fence. Most them don't have clue how little they know.

<snip>

Sure. Those Asians who have the enterprise to move to a
new continent are enterprising enough to do well when
they get there, and their kids shared their parent's
enterprising attitude

There isn't much enterprising about fleeing in panic
because commies threaten to kill you. You simply flee.

Not everybody does, by any means. And the ones who make it
to places like Australia and the US usually had the wit to
see the disaster coming and got out ahead of the bulk of the
fleeing hordes, which makes it easier to get into the
preferred destinations.

No, this has to do with family integrity and family
values. Precisely what conservatives teach.

Dream on.

It surprises me that you do not understand this. Talk to them
about their values. Then talk to others where life isn't going
so well. Chances are, you can only talk to the mom because dad
(or the various dads) hightailed it a long time ago. And then
you know problem #1.

People with that kind of problem with "family values" aren't the
ones who move countries.

Sure they do. However, then it's not so much a dad who hightailed
it but a dad who got killed. Their families rally around them,
family is still their core value.

We may be seeing the the same phenomena. You are complaining
about the defects of the stay-at-homes, and I'm pointing out
that emigrating is difficult enough to manage to filter them
out.

I can't follow you there.

You see feckless people who haven't moved on to something better. If
the US were stricken by something that made immigration the best
option, it's not an option the feckless would take.

I don't see what that's got to do with family values. A good family
nucleus is what gives young folks the tools to succeed in life and not
just for their career.

One of those tools is the enterprise to move to someplace where it's
easier to succeed in life.

James Arthur sees all bad trends starting when a Democrat gets
in power.

Because they usually do.

Sure. And there really is a Santa Claus.

I know you've got your head in the sand about it.

I know where James Arthur's head is, and there usually isn't much sand
up there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Spirit_Level:_Why_More_Equal_Societies_Almost_Always_Do_Better

puts the start of the decline in equality in the US around 1980,
when Reagan came to power, and cites the statistics that show
that the decline of the middle class has been progressing
steadily - if not totally uniformly - since then.

The GFT - which happened under Dubbya's watch - didn't do anybody
any good, but the decline of the US middle classes has been going
on since 1980 and the GFT didn't do more than bend the curve a
bit. It certainly didn't change the direction.

I live here and my impression is very different.

The company you keep may have something to do with that.
Statisticians work with statistics that cover the whole of the
population. Personal impressions are necessarily local.

When you do volunteering you get around. Statistics only go so far. Like
weather forcasts that are hit and miss.

Not exactly. Statistics encapsulate what has happened. Weather forecasts
are predictions. A record of how much rain has fallen isn't
"hit and miss".

Most civilised countries don't think that health care should be
available to employers as a bargaining chip - they provide
universal health care and let employers negotiate about salaries
and conditions of work.

No, they often provide waiting lists.

It happens. Margaret Thatcher slashed the funding for the UK National
Health in order to drive people onto private health insurance, and it
took Tony Blair's Labour administration some years of substantial
spending to get it back into shape. The UK National Health Service is
cheap - about 7% of GDP - and the French, Dutch and German services
are more expensive at about 10% of GDP, and provide much faster
service. They don't perform significantly better, but patients have
an easier time.

And now they have waiting lists just like Canadians do. This is why many
Canadians quietly carry Mayo Cards so they can get better health care in
the US.

They don't get better health care in the US. They get much the same
health care, closer to when they want it. Sometimes they get worse
health care because US doctors will give them what they want if they pay
for it, even if the patient shouldn't have wanted what they ask for, and
it's a waste of resources to give it to them

The US unwillingness to provide universal health care is both
short-sighted and barbaric. On a par with tolerating female
genital mutilation. I don't think much of infant circumcision for
males either ...

After the pre-existing condition exclusion was removed (the only
good thing I ever saw coming out of Obamacare) anyone can buy
health insurance. Even before, most people could. For example, I
bought ours on the free market. It's about choice. Some people make
poor choices, I personally know folks who opted to buy a bigger car
and forgo health insurance. One of them will likely lose his house
soon because this backfired when he had a major health event.

That's a personal disaster. If he'd got an infectious disease and put
off spending the money it cost to visit his doctor, it could have
started an epidemic, which could have been a national disaster.
Universal health care isn't just about individual cases but also
about stopping epidemics early.

Don't veer off again. This is about being able to obtain health care and
he could have gotten health care pre-Obamacare. Just like I could, and did.

Because you were rich - or at least gainfully employed.
Pointing out that universal health is better health care because some
diseases are infectious isn't "veering off". You don't like to think
about epidemics and avoiding them because it's a strong argument for
"socialised medicine"

I personally met people who, in consequence, hung it
up.

Every population includes special cases, who make fine
anecdotal evidence, but lack statistical effect.

Head in the sand again?

Cherry-picking convenient snippets of evidence while
ignoring bulk reality as evidenced by population-wide
statistics is a "head-in-the-sand" attitude.

Trying to persuade yourself otherwise is a fool's game.

I am able to see the writing on the wall. You may live too far
away to see it or you have the head in the sand about it so you
won't see it.

James Arthur sees a lot of "writing on the wall" which is visible
to him because he's learned a lot of political dogma which is
actually nonsensical.

Just because you don't understand something that doesn't mean it's
not there.

Just because you've persuaded yourself something is true, it doesn't
follow that more objective observers will share your understanding.

Your crack about "waiting lists" is a standard right-wing objection
to all forms of universal health care.

Nonsense. Even a _Canadian_ judge has ruled and literally said that
"Access to a waiting list isn't access to good health care". I've worked
long enough in med devices to know what and how much is lacking up north.

It's nice to get treatment as soon as you realise that you need it, but
if you condition isn't life-threatening or rapidly progressive, it's
cheaper to have just enough treatment capacity to keep the queue under
control, with the doctors busy most of the time.

Spare capacity is expensive, and part of the reason that US health care
is half again dearer than anybody else's - even the French and the
Germans, who do pay for a quite a lot of spare capacity.

They quit working so much and plopped themselves into
Obamacare. As a result of this and other failed
policies our labor participation rate fell by several
percentage points. That is really dangerous because
even if we get a better administration next time
around, which I seriously hope, the labor participation
rate typically never bounces back.

Where? When?

US:
http://etfdailynews.com/2014/09/05/labor-participation-rate-drops-to-lowest-since-1978-dow-jones-industrial-average/


Which doesn't mention that the populations age structure isn't quite
what it was in 1978. It's not the whole explanation, but any
honest commentator would have mentioned it as a factor

That is not at all a factor.

Of course it's a factor, and any honest commentator would have
quantified it's contribution. Age distribution tables lend
themselves to that kind of exercise.

We have lots of youngsters who simply cannot find a decent
job. Yeah, many work, sort of. Helping at a construction site,
"temping", and so on. That's not a real job. Which is one
reason for the boomerang kid trend, "kids" who move back in
with their parents in the 30's and 40's and then show no
tendency whatsoever to leave again.

Your economy isn't yet out of the post-GFC recession.

Don't know what you mean with GFC but under the current
administration the economy will never come back to a roar for the
middle class. That's why we need a change in 2016.

Global Financial Crisis - the current name for the Sub-Prime Mortgage
Crisis, once it had taken down everybody else's economies as well.

The US middle class has been being shafted by successive
administrations since 1980 - more enthusiastically by Republican
administrations than Democrats. Obama may be a Democrat, but
Congress is Republican, ...

It wasn't until the tea party movement and that Dem era before was where
major damage has been done. Some of it permanent.

Ask any Tea Party propagandist.

Finland (click on MAX):
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/finland/labor-force-participation-rate


No comment about why. Nokia is reputed to be having a difficult time
- it's a big firm and Finland is a small country.

Have you even looked at the data? The precipitous drop
obviously happened in the early 90's. When exactly did Nokia
run into trouble?

Have you looked at the data? The Finish figures in the link as
posted show 68.3% labour participation in June 2015, and a rapid
decline to 65.6% in August. The earliest figure on show is
September 2014. Nothing about the 1990s at all.

If I switch the time-scale to "Max" the series does go back to
the 1990's when it did peak a bit higher, but it has bounced up
and down a few time since then.

There's no "precipitous drop".

Sure there is. Look again.

Rubbish.

Ah yes, head in sand again.

I've been looking at trend lines most of my adult life, and there's
no "precipitous drop" in the 1990's.

Spell out the ranges before and after the "precipitous drop" and the
exact years involved.

Jobs that the unions, government or predatory lawyers
have driven out of the country will usually not come
back.

In a modern economy, new technology and new products
mean that jobs are vanishing all the time, and being
replaced by difference jobs in different industries.
Unions actually do serve as useful social purpose -

Yeah, like forcing employers to employ firemen on electric
locomotives.

A single driver electric locomotive is rather dangerous if
he collapses on his dead-man's handle, as has been known to
happen.

Oh man. I hope nobody ever let's you design a dead-man button.

I reported what has happened with existing designs of dead-man's
handle.

Did they fire the design engineers and managers involved in such
gross negligence? How stupid must a design engineer be to make that
mistake?

They were probably dead by the time it happened.

No. For example, the team that designed the dead-man circuitry in the
light rail train that bolted off driverless here in Sacramento sure is
still alive. Yet nothing is likely going to happen to them. Instead the
state instututed a nonsensical licensing law that protects ... nothing.

http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/transportation/article36953934.html

Quote "He jammed a screwdriver under the vehicle's "deadman" switch,
disabling that mechanism". That is engineering incompetence par excellence.

There's no safety device that a sufficiently ingenious technician (or
terrorist) can't disable. That's why two-man crews make sense on stuff
heavy enough to do real damage.

You snipped the the - real - example I quoted of a solo pilot
who flew his plane into the ground, killing all 150 on board. He
wasn't supposed to be a solo pilot, but had managed to lock his
co-pilot (the captain) out of the cockpit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germanwings_Flight_9525

This is bad behaviour on your part. I'm surprised and
disappointed.

It has nothing to do with the topic. On a flight you must have two
persons in the cockpit at all times and that's how it has always
been at American carriers. Now Lufthansa learned why, unfortunately
the hard way.

Trains are different. A rogue engineer in a locomotive cannot
cause havoc if the system is designed right. Like it is, for
example in Germany and much of Europe. Exceed the sector speed?
Locomotive won't let you. Want to blow past a stop? Locomotive
overrides and applies brakes. Plus there will be an unpleasant
"discussion" at the office later.

If the relevant "dead man's handles" are designed right.

It has been known since decades how to do that right.

Obviously not right enough.

... There's
usually a way of lying to a sub-system - or having it fail in the
wrong way at the wrong moment - that can kill a lot of people.

Have you never designed a watchdog circuit? Or safety-critical stuff
where override had to be prevented?

Sure. But the expectation was single-point defects, and it wouldn't have
taken much ingenuity to beat it.

There have been fatal accidents on even the German railways in recent
years.

http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/jul/25/how-safe-are-europe-railways

puts the most recent one at the 11th June 2003, but that is a 2013
report, and I think that there's been at least one since then. This
isn't the one I thought that I could remember.

http://www.dw.com/en/fatal-german-train-crash-kills-two-near-osnabr%C3%BCck/a-18454071

Caused by a truck illegally crossing tracks. No surprise.

There is always something technical that can go wrong, particularly at
high speed. And there are areas where technical barriers to wrongful
behavior of the train engineer are not implemented or when other
vehicles collide with trains. Fact is, safety technology such as Indusi
is there and can easily be implemented. My grandpa explained it to me
when I was a kid. Because he was a train engineer and the technology
exists since the days of steam locomotives:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punktf%C3%B6rmige_Zugbeeinflussung

What this part of the discussion was about though was unions insisting
on keeping jobs that became obsolete. Like firemen on electric
locomotives. That's just plain wrong.

Part of the job was obsolete. Having two men in the cab wasn't.
It makes a great sound-bite, but it's a dishonest argument.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
On 2015-10-01 9:13 AM, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 10/01/2015 12:05 PM, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 01 Oct 2015 08:05:20 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2015-09-30 12:26 PM, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 30 Sep 2015 10:18:08 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2015-09-29 7:45 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Wednesday, 30 September 2015 00:46:52 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:
On 2015-09-28 6:31 PM, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Tuesday, 29 September 2015 07:42:09 UTC+10, Joerg wrote:

[...]

Scandinavia is a different story where people can get taxed out
of their homes like it used to be in California until the
taxpayers revolted.

Not a story I've heard, but I'm not in the market for right-wing
anti-socialist propaganda. You really need to post a link to an
example of this terrifying behaviour.

That has nothing to do with propaganda. It is based on personal
friends whom I trust and who aren't very political.

In Scandinavia or California? ...


Both. But in California the voters revolted and got it stopped. I also
met people in other states such as New York (no ten horses will get me
to live there).

Prop 13 is weird and wonderful. I pay 1/4 the property tax of my
neighbor, who has basically the identical house, but he just bought
it.


Property taxes are un-American. IMHO they should at least be based on
square footage and acreage (not on sales price) _and_ capped at 2%
yearly increase max or inflation, whichever is lower. Then it's fair to
everyone including the person who has to move.


The best tax is sales tax. If you want a Porsche or a 4K teevee, buy
it and pay the tax.


And then when you sell the Porsche the next guy must pay sales tax
again. A double-dipping grab at its finest.

There is an argument that used stuff should not be taxed. That lets
poor people buy used things cheaper.

In part it's already happening in the gray zone. People by a used car
for one price but then another much lower one gets reported. That is an
inevitable consequence of excessive taxation.

The rich folks would buy the Porsche in Oregon, pay no tax and
"officially" keep it there for a while.

I was thinking about a national sales tax to replace the income tax,
and especially replace multiple business taxes. Imports now have a
huge advantage over USA products, and a sales tax on both would
equalize things and create US jobs.

But politicians don't use logic, or work for the greater good, so it
won't happen.

Simplifying the income tax code alone would do wonders, reducing tax
rates and at the same time taking away many of those complicated
deductions. The only one who dared to say that was again ... Donald
Trump. Of course he is generally short on the details.


The main problem is the double taxation of accumulated assets due to the
change.

That is the key problem, making it a non-starter. It would punish
everyone for having saved for old age and would casue people to make
their retirement home Curacao or somewhere, taking all their spending
money with them.

[...]

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/
 

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