New study definitively confirms gulf stream weakening...

[Fred Bloggs]

The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html

It takes forever for them to fish trends out of this slow moving and highly corrupted data, forever as in 30 years.

 

[Anthony William Sloman]

On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 11:45:03 PM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:

The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html

It takes forever for them to fish trends out of this slow moving and highly corrupted data, forever as in 30 years.

It is scarcely the only study that has come to this conclusion

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w

is another, which looked at rather data. I seem to recall earlier studies which said that it had slowed down by 30% since the 1950\'s

Here\'s another

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/gulf-stream-amoc-circulation-collapse-freshwater-imbalance-usa-europe-fa/

The worry is a rerun of the Younger Dryas, when it shut down completely for 1300+/-10 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas

The Argo buoy program, which collects data on deep ocean currents, should be telling us more

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argo_(oceanography)

It had got some 3000 floats into the oceans in 2007 and seems to have been running steadily since then - one of my neighbours got to launch one recently. Nobody seems to be making much fuss about the results yet.,

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[John Larkin]

On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 06:44:57 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
<bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html

It takes forever for them to fish trends out of this slow moving and highly corrupted data, forever as in 30 years.

No amount of computing can correct 40 years of \"observations of
disparate quality and resolution\".

But agreed, 0.1% change per year in the Florida Straits is terrifying.
Flow will stop in 1000 years. None of us will be able to sleep now.

 

[Anthony William Sloman]

On Thursday, September 28, 2023 at 1:04:10 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:

On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 06:44:57 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html

It takes forever for them to fish trends out of this slow moving and highly corrupted data, forever as in 30 years.

No amount of computing can correct 40 years of \"observations of disparate quality and resolution\".

People have been measuring Gulf Stream speed by different methods and in different places for decades now.

It does seem to be slowing down, but the results don\'t look all that consistent.

The problem is that the Gulf Stream is what we see on the surface. The Argo project

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argo_(oceanography)

aims to track the deep sea return currents as well. It\'s had some 3000-odd free-floating (and sinking) buoys deployed since 2007.

We haven\'t heard a lot about the results yet. If you look at the whole of the flow you should eventually be able to get a reasonable idea of what is going on.

But agreed, 0.1% change per year in the Florida Straits is terrifying.
Flow will stop in 1000 years. None of us will be able to sleep now.

That probably isn\'t a valid extrapolation. John Larkin probably does think that he is being sarcastic, but in reality he\'s just being his usual ill-informed self.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Fred Bloggs]

On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 11:04:10 AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:

On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 06:44:57 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html

It takes forever for them to fish trends out of this slow moving and highly corrupted data, forever as in 30 years.
No amount of computing can correct 40 years of \"observations of
disparate quality and resolution\".

Right, the data must be \'corrected.\'

But agreed, 0.1% change per year in the Florida Straits is terrifying.
Flow will stop in 1000 years. None of us will be able to sleep now.

That\'s only if you assume it\'s all linear. Article mentioned most of the 4% slowdown occurred within the last decade. That would suggest a positive feedback mechanism of some sort. It may be that once the slow down reaches threshold, the whole system switches wildly, heading for a new steady state. And that is not good.

 

[John Larkin]

On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 09:04:18 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
<bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 11:04:10?AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 06:44:57 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html

It takes forever for them to fish trends out of this slow moving and highly corrupted data, forever as in 30 years.
No amount of computing can correct 40 years of \"observations of
disparate quality and resolution\".

Right, the data must be \'corrected.\'


But agreed, 0.1% change per year in the Florida Straits is terrifying.
Flow will stop in 1000 years. None of us will be able to sleep now.

That\'s only if you assume it\'s all linear. Article mentioned most of the 4% slowdown occurred within the last decade. That would suggest a positive feedback mechanism of some sort. It may be that once the slow down reaches threshold, the whole system switches wildly, heading for a new steady state. And that is not good.

To me, it suggests a noisy process and some sensor variation. But you
can cherry-pick noise and extrapolate and be terrified if that\'s your
full-time hobby.

 

[Phil Hobbs]

John Larkin <jl@997arbor.com> wrote:

On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 09:04:18 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 11:04:10?AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 06:44:57 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has
slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this
weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html

It takes forever for them to fish trends out of this slow moving and
highly corrupted data, forever as in 30 years.
No amount of computing can correct 40 years of \"observations of
disparate quality and resolution\".

Right, the data must be \'corrected.\'


But agreed, 0.1% change per year in the Florida Straits is terrifying.
Flow will stop in 1000 years. None of us will be able to sleep now.

That\'s only if you assume it\'s all linear. Article mentioned most of the
4% slowdown occurred within the last decade. That would suggest a
positive feedback mechanism of some sort. It may be that once the slow
down reaches threshold, the whole system switches wildly, heading for a
new steady state. And that is not good.

To me, it suggests a noisy process and some sensor variation. But you
can cherry-pick noise and extrapolate and be terrified if that\'s your
full-time hobby.

And of course the ‘new steady state’ is an ice age, which should comfort
Fred and his AGW confrères no end.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs Principal Consultant ElectroOptical Innovations LLC /
Hobbs ElectroOptics Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics

 

[John Larkin]

On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 18:16:15 -0000 (UTC), Phil Hobbs
<pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical.net> wrote:

John Larkin <jl@997arbor.com> wrote:
On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 09:04:18 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 11:04:10?AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 06:44:57 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has
slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this
weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html

It takes forever for them to fish trends out of this slow moving and
highly corrupted data, forever as in 30 years.
No amount of computing can correct 40 years of \"observations of
disparate quality and resolution\".

Right, the data must be \'corrected.\'


But agreed, 0.1% change per year in the Florida Straits is terrifying.
Flow will stop in 1000 years. None of us will be able to sleep now.

That\'s only if you assume it\'s all linear. Article mentioned most of the
4% slowdown occurred within the last decade. That would suggest a
positive feedback mechanism of some sort. It may be that once the slow
down reaches threshold, the whole system switches wildly, heading for a
new steady state. And that is not good.

To me, it suggests a noisy process and some sensor variation. But you
can cherry-pick noise and extrapolate and be terrified if that\'s your
full-time hobby.



And of course the ‘new steady state’ is an ice age, which should comfort
Fred and his AGW confrères no end.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

It doesn\'t seem to me that 1.5c or even 3c warming would be a big
deal. Earth might be better off, actually. But the next ice age will
be terrible.

 

[whit3rd]

On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 1:21:19 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

It doesn\'t seem to me that 1.5c or even 3c warming would be a big
deal. Earth might be better off, actually. But the next ice age will
be terrible.

Warming is already a big deal. Plants and pollinators need to evolve in order to survive in
a different environment, and... all our food crops might go the way of the American
Chestnut and go extinct for a century or two. Can we in our billions feed on
wild rice and mealworms if we need to?

 

[Fred Bloggs]

On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 2:16:24 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:

John Larkin <j...@997arbor.com> wrote:
On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 09:04:18 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 11:04:10?AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 06:44:57 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has
slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this
weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html

It takes forever for them to fish trends out of this slow moving and
highly corrupted data, forever as in 30 years.
No amount of computing can correct 40 years of \"observations of
disparate quality and resolution\".

Right, the data must be \'corrected.\'


But agreed, 0.1% change per year in the Florida Straits is terrifying..
Flow will stop in 1000 years. None of us will be able to sleep now.

That\'s only if you assume it\'s all linear. Article mentioned most of the
4% slowdown occurred within the last decade. That would suggest a
positive feedback mechanism of some sort. It may be that once the slow
down reaches threshold, the whole system switches wildly, heading for a
new steady state. And that is not good.

To me, it suggests a noisy process and some sensor variation. But you
can cherry-pick noise and extrapolate and be terrified if that\'s your
full-time hobby.


And of course the ‘new steady state’ is an ice age, which should comfort
Fred and his AGW confrères no end.

It\'s no laughing matter. The whole of present day New York State was buried under 8,000 feet of ice! Europe was a disaster. I\'m sure the rest of the world wasn\'t exactly balmy either. This was 24,000 years ago, mankind was around back then. Sea level was about 130 feet lower (IIRC). Where do you think all that water went?

https://www.nysm.nysed.gov/sites/default/files/styles/1000px_wide/public/ice_coveredny-horiz2.jpg?itok=OrHFcE0N

https://www.nysm.nysed.gov/exhibitions/online/ice-ages

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs Principal Consultant ElectroOptical Innovations LLC /
Hobbs ElectroOptics Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics

 

[Fred Bloggs]

On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 4:21:19 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:

On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 18:16:15 -0000 (UTC), Phil Hobbs
pcdhSpamM...@electrooptical.net> wrote:

John Larkin <j...@997arbor.com> wrote:
On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 09:04:18 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 11:04:10?AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 06:44:57 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has
slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this
weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html

It takes forever for them to fish trends out of this slow moving and
highly corrupted data, forever as in 30 years.
No amount of computing can correct 40 years of \"observations of
disparate quality and resolution\".

Right, the data must be \'corrected.\'


But agreed, 0.1% change per year in the Florida Straits is terrifying.
Flow will stop in 1000 years. None of us will be able to sleep now.

That\'s only if you assume it\'s all linear. Article mentioned most of the
4% slowdown occurred within the last decade. That would suggest a
positive feedback mechanism of some sort. It may be that once the slow
down reaches threshold, the whole system switches wildly, heading for a
new steady state. And that is not good.

To me, it suggests a noisy process and some sensor variation. But you
can cherry-pick noise and extrapolate and be terrified if that\'s your
full-time hobby.



And of course the ‘new steady state’ is an ice age, which should comfort
Fred and his AGW confrères no end.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs
It doesn\'t seem to me that 1.5c or even 3c warming would be a big
deal. Earth might be better off, actually. But the next ice age will
be terrible.

Don\'t let those mean temp rises that sound small fool you. The mean value tells you nothing about the violent extremes of instantaneous weather that gets you there. The atmospheric physics does, and it does not look good.

 

[John Larkin]

On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 17:44:27 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
wrote:

On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 1:21:19?PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

It doesn\'t seem to me that 1.5c or even 3c warming would be a big
deal. Earth might be better off, actually. But the next ice age will
be terrible.

Warming is already a big deal. Plants and pollinators need to evolve in order to survive in
a different environment, and... all our food crops might go the way of the American
Chestnut and go extinct for a century or two. Can we in our billions feed on
wild rice and mealworms if we need to?

Food production is radically up in the last decades, and still sloping
up hard.

Therev would be plenty of food for everyone except for stupid
politics.

 

[Anthony William Sloman]

On Thursday, September 28, 2023 at 6:21:19 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:

On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 18:16:15 -0000 (UTC), Phil Hobbs
pcdhSpamM...@electrooptical.net> wrote:

John Larkin <j...@997arbor.com> wrote:
On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 09:04:18 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 11:04:10?AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 06:44:57 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has
slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this
weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html

It takes forever for them to fish trends out of this slow moving and
highly corrupted data, forever as in 30 years.
No amount of computing can correct 40 years of \"observations of
disparate quality and resolution\".

Right, the data must be \'corrected.\'


But agreed, 0.1% change per year in the Florida Straits is terrifying.
Flow will stop in 1000 years. None of us will be able to sleep now.

That\'s only if you assume it\'s all linear. Article mentioned most of the
4% slowdown occurred within the last decade. That would suggest a
positive feedback mechanism of some sort. It may be that once the slow
down reaches threshold, the whole system switches wildly, heading for a
new steady state. And that is not good.

<snip>

> >And of course the ‘new steady state’ is an ice age, which should comfort Fred and his AGW confrères no end.

It wasn\'t after the younger Dryas.

> It doesn\'t seem to me that 1.5c or even 3c warming would be a big deal. Earth might be better off, actually.

That\'s what you think if you let climate change denial propaganda do your thinking for you.

> But the next ice age will be terrible.

If we ever have one. We now know enough about the process of flipping from an interglacial to an ice age that we could stop it if it looked as if it was getting under way.
We should leave enough deposits of fossil carbon in the ground to let us do it when next we need to - in perhaps 50,000 year.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Anthony William Sloman]

On Thursday, September 28, 2023 at 12:11:45 PM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:

On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 17:44:27 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whi...@gmail.com
wrote:
On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 1:21:19?PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

It doesn\'t seem to me that 1.5c or even 3c warming would be a big
deal. Earth might be better off, actually. But the next ice age will
be terrible.

Warming is already a big deal. Plants and pollinators need to evolve in order to survive in
a different environment, and... all our food crops might go the way of the American
Chestnut and go extinct for a century or two. Can we in our billions feed on
wild rice and mealworms if we need to?

Food production is radically up in the last decades, and still sloping up hard.

So is population. Malthis wasn\'t wrong.

> There would be plenty of food for everyone except for stupid politics.

China doesn\'t share your optimism. Famines have been a effective form of population control for most of human history. and anthropogenic global warming may well reinstate them.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[whit3rd]

On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 7:11:45 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

On Wed, 27 Sep 2023 17:44:27 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whi...@gmail.com
wrote:
On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 1:21:19?PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

It doesn\'t seem to me that 1.5c or even 3c warming would be a big
deal. Earth might be better off, actually. But the next ice age will
be terrible.

Warming is already a big deal. Plants and pollinators need to evolve in order to survive in
a different environment, and... all our food crops might go the way of the American
Chestnut and go extinct for a century or two. Can we in our billions feed on
wild rice and mealworms if we need to?
Food production is radically up in the last decades, and still sloping
up hard.

Not cattle in Texas; net cattle population has dropped since about 1975.

The \'food production\' has to match population growth, or the market corrects.
Raw production numbers reflect population, not technology or absolute
capacity.

Therev would be plenty of food for everyone except for stupid
politics.

That\'s stupid, and political. Agriculture is mainly nature, just tweaked a bit
by technology. Texas can\'t support more cattle, so population rises and
beef production doesn\'t. The market and/or technology fix, is... eat more beans.

 

[a a]

The idiot Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> persisting in being an Off-topic troll...

--
Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

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[a a]

The idiot Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> persisting in being an Off-topic troll...

--
Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

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[a a]

The idiot whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com> persisting in being an Off-topic troll...

--
whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com> wrote:

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Subject: Re: New study definitively confirms gulf stream weakening
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The idiot whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com> persisting in being an Off-topic troll...

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whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com> wrote:

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Subject: Re: New study definitively confirms gulf stream weakening
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The idiot Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> persisting in being an Off-topic troll...

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Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

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Subject: Re: New study definitively confirms gulf stream weakening
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