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mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19...

L

legg

Guest
Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 54ppm range at the end of its containment excercises
in which the resources of the whole country were applied.

In the US, Sweden and Peru, detections are over 5000ppm, at
present, without containment.

China would have had to experience 100 Wuhans, to match this,
and detections indicate a 2x Wuhan-level event for every day
that records are kept in those nations.

It\'s not unreasonable to question whether containment is
possible, at this late stage.

A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
an approximately 4% penetration within the population.

Recently Chile has reported virus penetration of 1.5% after
four months. Fatality rates of covid sufferers is reported
to be below 3%.

Median age in US and Russia is 38.7 and 37.6yrs respectively.
Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
As of Jul27:

US detections are at 12792ppm.(1.3%)
Detection rate is 200ppm/day (possibly steadying around 200ppm)
Fatalities at 444ppm (3ppm /day)
FR 3.9% from a 11399ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US tests performed total 152980ppm (15.3%), at 2420ppm/day.
8.4% of tests are positive - currently 8.3%.

Canada detections at 3018ppm (0.3%) ~ 89 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 14ppm/day ( possibly steady around 15ppm ).
Fatalities at 236ppm (0.13ppm/day)
FR 8.1% from a 2923ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canadian tests performed total 99670ppm (10%), at 1060ppm/day .
3.0% of tests are positive - currently 1.3%.

Italian detections at 4071ppm. (0.4%)
Detection rate is 4ppm/day (possibly steadying around 3ppm)
Fatalities at 581ppm (0.08ppm/day)
FR 14.4% from a 4043ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italian tests performed total 108510ppm (10.8%), at 760ppm/day.
3.8% of tests are positive - currently 0.5%.

Sweden detections at 7822ppm. (0.8%)
Detection rate is 24ppm/day. (possibly steady around 25ppm/day)
Fatalities at 564ppm (0.89ppm/day)
FR is 7.4% from a 7652ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden tests performed unreported, at 980ppm/day
unknown tests are positive - currently 2.4%.

UK detections at 4411ppm.(0.4%)
Detection rate is 10ppm/day (possibly steady around 11ppm)
Fatalities at 674ppm (0.90ppm/day)
FR is 15.5% from a 4342ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK tests performed total 129600ppm (13%), at 1790ppm/day.
3.4% of tests are positive - currently 0.6%

Brazil detections at 11381ppm.(1.1%)
Detection rate is 216ppm/day and unstable
Fatalities at 409ppm (4ppm/day)
FR is 4.1% from a 9872ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazilian test performed total 11930ppm (1.2%) at 240ppm/day.
No test detection rate is possible while cases outstrip tests.

Peru detections at 11670ppm (1.2%)
Detection rate is 135ppm/day (possibly steady around 120ppm)
Fatalities at 553ppm (6ppm/day)
FR is 5.2% from a 10724ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru tests performed were 10790ppm (1.0%) at 140ppm/day.
No test detection rate is possible while cases exceed tests.

Chile detections at 18088ppm (1.8%)
Detection rate is 111ppm/day and unstable.
Fatalities at 477ppm (5ppm/day)
FR is 2.9% from 16480ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile tests performed total 78720 (7.9%), at 870ppm/day.
23% of tests are positive - currently 13%.

Mexico detections at 3029ppm (0.3%)
Detection rate is 51ppm/day and rising.
Fatalities at 339ppm (4ppm/day)
FR is 13.0% from a 2670ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico tests performed were 6280ppm (0.6%), at 80ppm/day
48% of tests are positive - currently 64%.

South Africa detections at 7510ppm (0.8%)
Detection rate is 195ppm/day ( possibly steady around 200ppm)
Fatalities at 114ppm (4ppm/day)
FR is 1.9% from a 6143ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA tests performed were 46040ppm (4.6%), at 740ppm/day.
16.3% of tests are positive, currently 26%.
(July23 current positive test rate of 13% should have been 30%.)

RL
 
L

legg

Guest
Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 54ppm range at the end of its containment excercises
in which the resources of the whole country were applied.

In the US, Sweden and Peru, detections are over 5000ppm, at
present, without containment.

China would have had to experience 100 Wuhans, to match this,
and detections indicate a 2x Wuhan-level event for every day
that records are kept in those nations.

It\'s not unreasonable to question whether containment is
possible, at this late stage.

A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
an approximately 4% penetration within the population.

Recently Chile has reported virus penetration of 1.5% after
four months. Fatality rates of covid sufferers is reported
to be below 3%.

Median age in US and Russia is 38.7 and 37.6yrs respectively.
Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
As of Jul30:

US detections are at 13375ppm.(1.3%)
Detection rate is 227ppm/day (possibly steadying around 200ppm)
Fatalities at 455ppm (3ppm /day)
FR 3.8% from a 11997ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US tests performed total 162610ppm (16.4%), at 2480ppm/day.
8.2% of tests are positive - currently 9.2%.

Canada detections at 3059ppm (0.3%) ~ three months behind the US.
Detection rate at 13ppm/day ( possibly steady around 15ppm ).
Fatalities at 236ppm (0.13ppm/day)
FR 7.9% from a 2974ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canadian tests performed total 102380ppm (10%), at 1300ppm/day .
2.9% of tests are positive - currently 1.0%.

Italian detections at 4082ppm. (0.4%)
Detection rate is 5ppm/day (possibly steadying around 4ppm)
Fatalities at 581ppm (0.08ppm/day)
FR 14.3% from a 4053ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italian tests performed total 110650ppm (11.1%), at 790ppm/day.
3.7% of tests are positive - currently 0.6%.

Sweden detections at 7871ppm. (0.8%)
Detection rate is 10ppm/day. (possibly steady around 20ppm/day)
Fatalities at 567ppm (0.89ppm/day)
FR is 7.3% from a 7772ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden tests performed unreported, at 840ppm/day
unknown tests are positive - currently 1.2%.

UK detections at 4441ppm.(0.4%)
Detection rate is 11ppm/day (possibly steady around 11ppm)
Fatalities at 677ppm (1.2ppm/day)
FR is 15.5% from a 4374ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK tests performed total 134310ppm (13%), at 1810ppm/day.
3.3% of tests are positive - currently 0.6%

Brazil detections at 12007ppm.(1.2%)
Detection rate is 325ppm/day and unstable
Fatalities at 424ppm (5ppm/day)
FR is 4.0% from a 10480ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazilian test performed unreported (1.2%) at 240ppm/day.
No test detection rate is possible while cases outstrip tests.

Peru detections at 12152ppm (1.2%)
Detection rate is 172ppm/day (possibly steady around 140ppm)
Fatalities at 571ppm (6ppm/day)
FR is 5.1% from a 11117ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru tests performed were 11190ppm (1.0%) at 150ppm/day.
No test detection rate is possible while cases exceed tests.

Chile detections at 18391ppm (1.8%)
Detection rate is 92ppm/day (possibly steady around 100ppm).
Fatalities at 485ppm (4ppm/day)
FR is 2.9% from 16803ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile tests performed total 82690 (8.3%), at 1010ppm/day.
22% of tests are positive - currently 9.1%.

Mexico detections at 3178ppm (0.3%)
Detection rate is 45ppm/day (possibly steady around 50ppm)
Fatalities at 352ppm (4ppm/day)
FR is 12.5% from a 2810ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico tests performed were unreported (0.6%), at 80ppm/day
unknown are positive - currently 56%.

South Africa detections at 7944ppm (0.8%)
Detection rate is 192ppm/day ( possibly steady around 200ppm)
Fatalities at 126ppm (4ppm/day)
FR is 2.9% from a 6659ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA tests performed were 47730ppm (4.8%), at 710ppm/day.
16.6% of tests are positive, currently 27%.
 
L

legg

Guest
Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 54ppm range at the end of its containment excercises
in which the resources of the whole country were applied.

In the US, Sweden and Peru, detections are over 5000ppm, at
present, without containment.

China would have had to experience 100 Wuhans, to match this,
and detections indicate a 2x Wuhan-level event for every day
that records are kept in those nations.

It\'s not unreasonable to question whether containment is
possible, at this late stage.

A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
an approximately 4% penetration within the population.

Recently Chile has reported virus penetration of 1.5% after
four months. Fatality rates of covid sufferers is reported
to be below 3%.

Median age in US and Russia is 38.7 and 37.6yrs respectively.
Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
As of Aug03:

US detections are at 14102ppm.(1.4%)
Detection rate is 144ppm/day (possibly steadying around 200ppm)
Fatalities at 469ppm (3ppm /day)
FR 3.7% from a 12792ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US tests performed total 171640ppm (17.2%), at 2300ppm/day.
8.2% of tests are positive - currently 6.3%.

Canada detections at 3097ppm (0.3%) ~ 95 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 8ppm/day ( possibly steady around 15ppm ).
Fatalities at 237ppm (0.16ppm/day)
FR 7.9% from a 3018ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canadian tests performed total 109780ppm (11%), at 1440ppm/day .
2.8% of tests are positive - currently 0.6%.

Italian detections at 4103ppm. (0.4%)
Detection rate is 4ppm/day (possibly steadying around 4ppm)
Fatalities at 581ppm (0.1ppm/day)
FR 14.3% from a 4071ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italian tests performed total 68330ppm (6.8%), at 450ppm/day.
6% of tests are positive - currently 0.9%.
Total tests reported have halved in the last week?

Sweden detections at 7963ppm. (0.8%)
Detection rate is 20ppm/day. (possibly steady around 20ppm/day)
Fatalities at 569ppm (0.5ppm/day)
FR is 7.3% from a 7822ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden tests performed unreported, at 840ppm/day
unknown tests are positive - currently 2.4%.

UK detections at 4477ppm.(0.4%)
Detection rate is 11ppm/day (possibly steady around 11ppm)
Fatalities at 681ppm (0.5ppm/day)
FR is 15.4% from a 4423ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK tests performed total 142970ppm (14%), at 1880ppm/day.
3.1% of tests are positive - currently 0.6%

Brazil detections at 12861ppm.(1.3%)
Detection rate is 121ppm/day and unstable
Fatalities at 443ppm (4ppm/day)
FR is 3.8% from a 11682ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazilian test performed unreported (1.2%).
No test detection rate is possible while cases outstrip tests.

Peru detections at 13007ppm (1.3%)
Detection rate is 202ppm/day (possibly steady around 140ppm)
Fatalities at 595ppm (6ppm/day)
FR is 5.1% from a 11670ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru tests performed were 11430ppm (1.1%) at 140ppm/day.
No test detection rate is possible while cases exceed tests.

Chile detections at 18818ppm (1.9%)
Detection rate is 108ppm/day (possibly steady around 100ppm).
Fatalities at 503ppm (4ppm/day)
FR is 2.9% from 17315ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile tests performed total 87530 (8.8%), at 1110ppm/day.
21% of tests are positive - currently 9.7%.

Mexico detections at 3405ppm (0.3%)
Detection rate is 38ppm/day (possibly steady around 50ppm)
Fatalities at 370ppm (4ppm/day)
FR is 12.2% from a 3029ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico tests performed were 7140ppm (0.7%), at 70ppm/day
48% of tests are positive - currently 54%.

South Africa detections at 8624ppm (0.9%)
Detection rate is 138ppm/day ( possibly steady around 200ppm)
Fatalities at 141ppm (3ppm/day)
FR is 1.9% from a 7510ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA tests performed were 51200ppm (5.1%), at 630ppm/day.
16.8% of tests are positive, currently 22%.

RL
 
R

Robert Baer

Guest
legg wrote:
Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 54ppm range at the end of its containment excercises
in which the resources of the whole country were applied.

In the US, Sweden and Peru, detections are over 5000ppm, at
present, without containment.

China would have had to experience 100 Wuhans, to match this,
and detections indicate a 2x Wuhan-level event for every day
that records are kept in those nations.

It\'s not unreasonable to question whether containment is
possible, at this late stage.

A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
an approximately 4% penetration within the population.

Recently Chile has reported virus penetration of 1.5% after
four months. Fatality rates of covid sufferers is reported
to be below 3%.

Median age in US and Russia is 38.7 and 37.6yrs respectively.
Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.


As of Aug03:

US detections are at 14102ppm.(1.4%)
Detection rate is 144ppm/day (possibly steadying around 200ppm)
Fatalities at 469ppm (3ppm /day)
FR 3.7% from a 12792ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US tests performed total 171640ppm (17.2%), at 2300ppm/day.
8.2% of tests are positive - currently 6.3%.

Canada detections at 3097ppm (0.3%) ~ 95 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 8ppm/day ( possibly steady around 15ppm ).
Fatalities at 237ppm (0.16ppm/day)
FR 7.9% from a 3018ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canadian tests performed total 109780ppm (11%), at 1440ppm/day .
2.8% of tests are positive - currently 0.6%.

Italian detections at 4103ppm. (0.4%)
Detection rate is 4ppm/day (possibly steadying around 4ppm)
Fatalities at 581ppm (0.1ppm/day)
FR 14.3% from a 4071ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italian tests performed total 68330ppm (6.8%), at 450ppm/day.
6% of tests are positive - currently 0.9%.
Total tests reported have halved in the last week?

Sweden detections at 7963ppm. (0.8%)
Detection rate is 20ppm/day. (possibly steady around 20ppm/day)
Fatalities at 569ppm (0.5ppm/day)
FR is 7.3% from a 7822ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden tests performed unreported, at 840ppm/day
unknown tests are positive - currently 2.4%.

UK detections at 4477ppm.(0.4%)
Detection rate is 11ppm/day (possibly steady around 11ppm)
Fatalities at 681ppm (0.5ppm/day)
FR is 15.4% from a 4423ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK tests performed total 142970ppm (14%), at 1880ppm/day.
3.1% of tests are positive - currently 0.6%

Brazil detections at 12861ppm.(1.3%)
Detection rate is 121ppm/day and unstable
Fatalities at 443ppm (4ppm/day)
FR is 3.8% from a 11682ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazilian test performed unreported (1.2%).
No test detection rate is possible while cases outstrip tests.

Peru detections at 13007ppm (1.3%)
Detection rate is 202ppm/day (possibly steady around 140ppm)
Fatalities at 595ppm (6ppm/day)
FR is 5.1% from a 11670ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru tests performed were 11430ppm (1.1%) at 140ppm/day.
No test detection rate is possible while cases exceed tests.

Chile detections at 18818ppm (1.9%)
Detection rate is 108ppm/day (possibly steady around 100ppm).
Fatalities at 503ppm (4ppm/day)
FR is 2.9% from 17315ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile tests performed total 87530 (8.8%), at 1110ppm/day.
21% of tests are positive - currently 9.7%.

Mexico detections at 3405ppm (0.3%)
Detection rate is 38ppm/day (possibly steady around 50ppm)
Fatalities at 370ppm (4ppm/day)
FR is 12.2% from a 3029ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico tests performed were 7140ppm (0.7%), at 70ppm/day
48% of tests are positive - currently 54%.

South Africa detections at 8624ppm (0.9%)
Detection rate is 138ppm/day ( possibly steady around 200ppm)
Fatalities at 141ppm (3ppm/day)
FR is 1.9% from a 7510ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA tests performed were 51200ppm (5.1%), at 630ppm/day.
16.8% of tests are positive, currently 22%.

RL
WRT determining spread factors, has ANYONE made half-life
measurements under various conditions?
Seems to me such data would be very useful.
 
B

Bill Sloman

Guest
On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 8:08:33 AM UTC+10, Robert Baer wrote:
> legg wrote:

<snip>

WRT determining spread factors, has ANYONE made half-life
measurements under various conditions?
\"Half life\" of what? Spreading factors are mostly changed by human behavior, which can change rapidly as the situation changes, and even more rapidly depending on what the media decides to hype.

> Seems to me such data would be very useful.

It would be useful , if the thing being measured stayed the same for long enough for the researchers to be able to collect enough data to get a statistically reliable result.

In places where tests for Covid-19 throw up 5% or less positive results, they do give a tolerably reliable measure of the number of people who have got infected. Contact tracing can give you a handle on how they got infected, and if you can keep track of their contacts you can get some idea of how many people they\'d managed to infect before they got tested, but the US has a lot too many infections to allow thorough contact tracing.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
L

legg

Guest
On Mon, 3 Aug 2020 15:08:26 -0700, Robert Baer
<robertbaer@localnet.com> wrote:

legg wrote:
snip
WRT determining spread factors, has ANYONE made half-life
measurements under various conditions?
Seems to me such data would be very useful.
The life of the virus in free space isn\'t long, but with a
two week asymptomatic period, you\'d have to ask everybody
to hold their breath for two weeks (and not to develop
symptoms in the meantime) to end the life of the pandemic.

RL
 
L

legg

Guest
Per capita comparisons are interesting.

The Wuhan event resulted in virus detections per capita
in the 54ppm range at the end of its containment excercises
in which the resources of the whole country were applied.

In the US, Sweden and Peru, detections are over 5000ppm, at
present, without containment.

China would have had to experience 100 Wuhans, to match this,
and detections indicate a 2x Wuhan-level event for every day
that records are kept in those nations.

It\'s not unreasonable to question whether containment is
possible, at this late stage.

A 100ppm daily detection rate would, in one year, result in
an approximately 4% penetration within the population.

Recently Chile has reported virus penetration of 1.5% after
four months. Fatality rates of covid sufferers is reported
to be below 3%.

Median age in US and Russia is 38.7 and 37.6yrs respectively.
Median age in Canada, UK and Sweden is 40-41yrs.
Median age in Germany and Italy is 45-46yrs.
Median age in Peru and Mexico is 27.5yrs.
Median age in Chile and Brazil is 33.7 and 31.3yrs respectively.
Median age in South Africa is 25yrs.
As of Aug06:

US detections are at 14574ppm.(1.5%)
Detection rate is 160ppm/day (possibly steadying around 200ppm)
Fatalities at 478ppm (3ppm /day)
FR 3.6% from a 13375ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
US tests performed total 178010ppm (17.8%), at 2190ppm/day.
8.2% of tests are positive - currently 7.3%.

Canada detections at 3131ppm (0.3%) ~ 97 days behind the US.
Detection rate at 10ppm/day ( possibly steady around 15ppm ).
Fatalities at 237ppm (0.16ppm/day)
FR 7.7% from a 3089ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Canadian tests performed total 113200ppm (11%), at 1040ppm/day .
2.8% of tests are positive - currently 1.0%.
** Antibody testing in blood donors (Quebec) indicates covid19
contact is at 3x the local virus detection levels.

Italian detections at 4115ppm. (0.4%)
Detection rate is 6ppm/day (possibly steadying around 4ppm)
Fatalities at 582ppm (0.16ppm/day)
FR 14.3% from a 4082ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Italian tests performed total 69210ppm (6.9%), at 440ppm/day.
5.9% of tests are positive - currently 1.4%.

Sweden detections at 8074ppm. (0.8%)
Detection rate is 36ppm/day. (possibly steady around 30ppm/day)
Fatalities at 579ppm (0.9ppm/day)
FR is 7.3% from a 7899ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Sweden tests performed unreported, at 758ppm/day
unknown tests are positive - currently 4.7%.

UK detections at 4525ppm.(0.5%)
Detection rate is 13ppm/day (possibly steady around 11ppm)
Fatalities at 683ppm (1.0ppm/day)
FR is 15.4% from a 4441ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
UK tests performed total 148530ppm (15%), at 2030ppm/day.
3.0% of tests are positive - currently 0.6%

Brazil detections at 13451ppm.(1.3%)
Detection rate is 269ppm/day and unstable
Fatalities at 458ppm (5ppm/day)
FR is 3.7% from a 12279ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Brazilian tests performed unreported (1.2%).
No test detection rate is possible while cases outstrip tests.

Peru detections at 13576ppm (1.4%)
Detection rate is 235ppm/day ( rising )
Fatalities at 613ppm (6ppm/day)
FR is 5.0% from a 12152ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Peru tests performed were unreported (1.1%) at 140ppm/day.
No test detection rate is possible while cases exceed tests.

Chile detections at 19080ppm (1.9%)
Detection rate is 92ppm/day (possibly steady around 100ppm).
Fatalities at 512ppm (3ppm/day)
FR is 2.9% from 17598ppm detection recorded 14 days previously.
Chile tests performed total 90910 (9.1%), at 1170ppm/day.
21% of tests are positive - currently 7.9%.

Mexico detections at 3538ppm (0.4%)
Detection rate is 48ppm/day (possibly steady around 50ppm)
Fatalities at 385ppm (5ppm/day)
FR is 12.1% from a 3168ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
Mexico tests performed were 7390ppm (0.7%), at 70ppm/day
48% of tests are positive - currently 69%.

South Africa detections at 8934ppm (0.9%)
Detection rate is 144ppm/day ( possibly steady around 200ppm)
Fatalities at 157ppm (5ppm/day)
FR is 2.0% from a 7844ppm detection recorded 7 days previously.
SA tests performed were 52490ppm (5.2%), at 580ppm/day.
17% of tests are positive, currently 25%.

RL
 
L

legg

Guest
On Mon, 10 Aug 2020 14:26:54 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

<snip>
Canada detections at 3158ppm (0.3%) ~ 111 days behind the US.
...should read ~ 101 days behind . . .
RL
 
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