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Dutch scientists contradict scientists on settled science...

T

Tom Gardner

Guest
On 13/08/20 20:46, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 13 Aug 2020 18:08:32 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 13/08/20 16:53, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 13 Aug 2020 16:22:46 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 13/08/20 16:01, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
The only test that really matters is death rate.

No #1: the only reliable measure is the /excess/ death rate

No #2: severe long term side effects (which are slowly
beginning to become apparent) are arguably worse than
death.

Certainly I fear brain damage more than I fear death, and
I don\'t even have the comfortable thought of an afterlife
to look forward to.

Why is the cv death rate in Sweden down to near zero?

Who cares? It is also low in England, but that is missing
the point about people that will have a miserable
existence after contracting covid.

I\'ve had it. Wasn\'t bad.
1) how do you *know* you had it?
2) so what?

Or maybe you think that because you didn\'t die, nobody has died?

Has anybody heard from Win Hill recently?
 
T

Tom Gardner

Guest
On 13/08/20 21:02, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 13 Aug 2020 09:13:41 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2020-08-09 10:53, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 09/08/20 18:19, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 09 Aug 2020 08:46:20 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2020-08-09 07:34, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 9 Aug 2020 06:57:04 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 09/08/20 01:47, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

[...]


Skiing isn\'t really very dangerous.

My daughter and I watched someone die at Breckenridge.
A local man fell, slid, made a memorable \"crump\" as he
hit a water cannon, and didn\'t move. I called out the
blood bath when our chairlift reached the top.


Our insurance agent almost died. He hit a tree. The tree won.


Any ordinary vacation, like a beach or something, I keep thinking
about stuff.

Yes. I can sit on a beach for a day or so, then I\'m off
using local busses to explore local towns, or off on the
train to another destination.


Skiing is totally absorbing, an entirely different world,
and you can do it all day.

Gliding is intense relaxed concentration, very similar
to skiing except it can be done locally.

I tried parachuting, but the duty cycle was absurd. At great expense
(and risk) you might actually do it for 10 minutes per day.


Not if you open up three seconds after the exit once in a while. The
others thought it was foolish to waste all this freefall fun but once in
a while I just wanted to \"soar\", find thermals and all that. Especially
if the pilot would drop us above 16,000 ft. Which, of course, wasn\'t
100% legit sans oxygen but fun.

[...]

I only made a few static jumps, from 3000\' or so, and the view was
cool, but it didn\'t seem to last long. How long does it take from 16K
feet?

I guess a wing-type chute could soar for a while. What\'s the glide
slope like on a good chute?

Apparently paragliders are 12:1, which is pisspoor - a 747
manages 15:1. Perhaps that is why many paragliders have big
fans on their back!

An old wooden glider will do >20:1, a modern plastic glider >50:1.


Parachutes are way worse. A high-priced monstrous military version can
give you 5:1 but the stuff we used was always below 4:1. Usually well below.

https://airborne-sys.com/product/hi-5-military-ram-air-parachute/


I jumped with a 22\' war surplus chute. It hit the ground HARD.

You should have seen the plane.
When training us for the static line jump, we were shown a
picture that I\'ve never forgotten but cannot locate.

It was of an open parachute supporting the parachutist, with
the upside down aircraft suspended below by the static line.
The static line had a hangup, and the parachutist pulled the
cord, which stalled the aircraft.

The combination descended rapidly until the aircraft hit the
ground (hard), which gave the parachute just enough distance
to slow the parachutist so they made a normal landing.
 
W

whit3rd

Guest
On Thursday, August 13, 2020 at 12:59:37 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 13 Aug 2020 17:57:55 +0100, Martin Brown
\'\'\'newspam\'\'\'@nonad.co.uk> wrote:

On 13/08/2020 16:01, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

What\'s the logic of a travel distance limit?

Think of it as a diffusion problem.

If people from the next town shop here, and we shop there, and we are
equally likely to be infected, I can\'t see that as being any different
from shopping near home. Seven customers in a shop, all with the same
probabilities.
The resistivity of metals is related to the mean free path between interactions.
The same kind of mean-free-path scales the spread of an infection, and
if the spread velocity is to be kept low, long paths do NOT work. It doesn\'t matter the
identity of the clan in town A being different from the clan in town B, it\'s about
the distance people travel in daily life while having their interactions.

Short distances, slow spread from outbreak centers, just like short mean free path, high resistivity.


And it may be genetically drifting to be more infectous and less
deadly. These things do that.
Both those drifts are less than likely.

These things are NOT swapping genes every generation like in animal populations; a more-infectious
mutation, while possible, does NOT become a pandemic mutation until it has very much
time to spread because only daughters of the mutant are enhanced, and then only
if they encounter a multiplicity of susceptible individuals to spread to. With an R value
of near-1, it doesn\'t make sense that a more-infectious strain would take over; the other
strains have the head start, and are seeding the herd with antibodies.

That applies also to \'less deadly\', because survival rates are high (and few deaths don\'t cause
much selection). Improvements in therapeutics, however, are data-driven, not
subject to the same low efficiency as evolution by selection.
 
J

John Larkin

Guest
On Thu, 13 Aug 2020 21:39:14 +0100, Tom Gardner
<spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 13/08/20 20:46, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 13 Aug 2020 18:08:32 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 13/08/20 16:53, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 13 Aug 2020 16:22:46 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 13/08/20 16:01, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
The only test that really matters is death rate.

No #1: the only reliable measure is the /excess/ death rate

No #2: severe long term side effects (which are slowly
beginning to become apparent) are arguably worse than
death.

Certainly I fear brain damage more than I fear death, and
I don\'t even have the comfortable thought of an afterlife
to look forward to.

Why is the cv death rate in Sweden down to near zero?

Who cares? It is also low in England, but that is missing
the point about people that will have a miserable
existence after contracting covid.

I\'ve had it. Wasn\'t bad.

1) how do you *know* you had it?
2) so what?
OK, I\'ll add you to my ignore list.
 
B

Bill Sloman

Guest
On Friday, August 14, 2020 at 8:51:31 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 13 Aug 2020 21:39:14 +0100, Tom Gardner
spam...@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 13/08/20 20:46, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 13 Aug 2020 18:08:32 +0100, Tom Gardner
spam...@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 13/08/20 16:53, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 13 Aug 2020 16:22:46 +0100, Tom Gardner
spam...@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 13/08/20 16:01, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
<snip>

I\'ve had it. Wasn\'t bad.

1) how do you *know* you had it?
2) so what?

OK, I\'ll add you to my ignore list.
John Larkin does specialise in ignorance. Not in the usual sense - he knows stuff about a lot of subject - but what he knows is mostly wrong, and he ignores any suggestion to that effect.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
M

Martin Brown

Guest
On 13/08/2020 20:59, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 13 Aug 2020 17:57:55 +0100, Martin Brown
\'\'\'newspam\'\'\'@nonad.co.uk> wrote:

On 13/08/2020 16:01, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 13 Aug 2020 09:27:54 +0100, Martin Brown
\'\'\'newspam\'\'\'@nonad.co.uk> wrote:

Looking at our UK 7 day average curve I think it is just at the start of
exponential growth again (R>1). By the end of next week I will be
certain. Spain and France are ahead of us and now well on their way up.

There are secondary humps all over the world. Australia is the poster
child for that.

If they don\'t successfully contain it then it will run free.

It will do that anyhow. They can change the time sacle.
It is an isolated large continent sparsely populated with relatively few
high density population centres they might be able to confine it well
enough for the infection to die out. UK might also have done so too if
we have been a bit more on the ball at the beginning.

I note in passing that New Zealand have had to go back into lockdown in
Auckland and the UK has put France (and others) onto the quarantine
naughty step. France will immediately retaliate tot for tat but the
Dutch have said OK we see your point we will try to improve.
Wales limited people to travelling no more than 5 miles from their home
which seems a bit mean to me - where I live in England it is 10 miles to
the nearest shop in every direction! Rural Wales it is even further.

The only test that really matters is death rate.

You have to worry about the KSI values too. For every one that dies two
are seriously injured possibly with life changing consequences. I feel
for the medics on the front line - some have had a very bad time of it.

It\'s down to near
zero in Sweden, about 1% of peak and declining. Why?

Mostly young people on holiday getting infected at the moment. Same
across most of Europe hot sunshine beaches and booze.

The daily new-case rate in most of europe is way down from peak, and
very far down in Sweden, about 1/4 of peak. Deaths there are close to
zero.
In part because most of the extremely vulnerable have already died and
the remaining ones are shielding very carefully now. It is the same in
the UK I know people who have not been out to a physical shop since
lockdown began (just elderly not with a requirement for shielding).

Sounds like herd immunity to me, especially if the kids are partying
again.
It might sound like that to you since you choose to interpret everything
with Wratten 29 rose tinted glasses. Pollyanna has nothing on you.
And they didn\'t trash their economy as much.
On that we are agreed and I think it will ultimately be proved that the
Dutch and Swedish approach (which the UK almost followed) was the most
rational solution to minimise total fatalities over the longer term.
What\'s the logic of a travel distance limit?

Think of it as a diffusion problem.

If people from the next town shop here, and we shop there, and we are
equally likely to be infected, I can\'t see that as being any different
from shopping near home. Seven customers in a shop, all with the same
probabilities.
But they are not all with the same probabilities. I had expected you to
be able to grok this. Try simulating it with a simple cellular automaton
allowed to infect another cell anywhere within +/- N of its coordinates.

Increase N and watch what happens.

The other illustrative model is only allow to infect nearest neighbours
then permit 5% to infect cells that are +/-10 away. That is actually a
fairly realistic idealised model of how the virus spreads though a
population. It is the long distance travellers that bring it in.

That was obvious in my community. Every one of the early cases where I
live was someone who spent some time in London in the month prior to
lockdown. My wife dodged a bullet by breaking her shoulder six
colleagues who were at the meeting in London came back with it.

One thing that is really going to screw up the UK is in September when
the universities go back young fit individuals will criss cross the
country on very crowded trains and then live in close proximity. A few
universities have recognised this and gone online for the first term and
possibly for the entire academic year. Bit tough on the freshers!
The virus is most everywhere now. Too late to wall it off.
It isn\'t though.

It is mostly concentrated in regions with very high population density.
In The Netherlands it is rampant in Amsterdam and Rotterdam but safe
elsewhere. In the UK just prior to lockdown travelling through London at
rush hour gave you a 2% chance of catching the damn thing.

Once you have a single live case then the virus can jump one mean free
path x in any direction covering an area which scales as x.t^(1/2). When
x is small like walking distance then you have a single containable
outbreak with a slowly increasing perimeter.

Allow just a few of them to move 100 miles and you have new outbreaks
all over the place and with previously unaffected nearest neighbours.

I am genuinely surprised how often food preparation plants are having
massive outbreaks- another big one today in the UK hundreds affected.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-53762233

The UK death rate is near zero too.

I probably killed off the most vulnerable first-pass.

And it may be genetically drifting to be more infectous and less
deadly. These things do that.
It is certainly drifting towards being more infectious as a response to
lockdown. It has no selection pressure to become less deadly since its
transmission is not in any way impaired by killing 1% of its hosts.

The D614G strain has already supplanted the original wild form and these
minor changes have made it more infectious with a better binding and a
faster reproduction rate so higher viral load.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200702144054.htm


--
Regards,
Martin Brown
 
D

David Brown

Guest
On 13/08/2020 18:40, Martin Brown wrote:
On 13/08/2020 10:55, David Brown wrote:
On 13/08/2020 10:27, Martin Brown wrote:
On 12/08/2020 22:06, David Brown wrote:
On 05/08/2020 00:28, Ricketty C wrote:
On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 5:35:48 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:

If Sweden is not locked down, why has the death rate fallen to
zero? Why has it fallen at all, with total cases only 0.8% of the
population?

Very good question.  Do you have any theories?  Could it be due to
the beginning of winter there?

Eh, no.  It\'s the middle of summer in Sweden.

Basically, a solid proportion of the most vulnerable people in old
folks
homes are already dead, after months of a \"let people get the virus and
be done with it\" policy, and now it is mostly young people who have it.
   These don\'t die as often, but they spread it well and they sometimes
get serious long-lasting (possibly life-time) health problems.  It
really bugs me that the statistics don\'t track the numbers of people
who
are crippled for months, years or the rest of their life by this
virus -
that would give a better picture of the cost of the pandemic.

There are certainly a few who potentially have life changing injuries
from Covid infections. A friend is in that position - not nice.

There are many, judging from reports and indirect stories (like stories
of recuperation facilities being overwhelmed even when hospitals and
ICU\'s are doing fine) - but no one seems to be publishing real numbers.

There was a bit of anecdotal mention of this problem in a recent BBC
programme which include two twin Dutch doctors one of whom had a
spectacularly bad experience with Covid (as in complications which led
to them stopping his heart to reset it and doing it on camera).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000ljnb/surviving-the-virus-my-brother-me


The biggest problems seem to be scaring on the lungs reducing their
efficiency, and mental problems as a result of low oxygen, \"sticky\"
blood, and PTSD.  But it will obviously take a long time to understand
the long term effects.

Certainly for those who have been in ICU then PTSD is a real likelihood.
I think the sticky blood wears off after a while - but not good to have
blood group A in that respect. The lung scarring is the most persistent
and it is as yet unclear how well people will recover long term. I hope
my friend will be OK eventually they were a fit skier prior to this.

Sweden has similar lock-down and restrictions as Norway.  But they left
it far too late, and waited until the restrictions didn\'t have a chance
of limiting the spread.

(And before Larkin or others suggest it, no - they have no \"herd
immunity\" in Sweden.)

UK survey has just reported nationally 6% and in London 13% with
antibodies using a reasonably credible test. Indications are that there
are a proportion of PCR Covid positive tested early on who do not now
test positive for antibodies now which is a little disconcerting.

It seems that a lot of people who get Covid, especially those with
little or no symptoms, don\'t develop significant antibodies.  And many
who do have antibodies, loose them fairly quickly.  And we don\'t know
how effective the antibodies are at preventing a new infection (though
antibody donation treatments show that they help cure the disease when
you have got it).

There is still a great deal we don\'t know.

Indeed. Though even with imperfect information decisions have to be made.
That is one reason why I am prepared to cut the UK government a fair
amount of slack.
You are right that decisions have to be made on imperfect data, and
sometimes that means choices that are judged poor when looked at with
hindsight, despite being rational and justified at the time.

However, the UK government has made a balls-up from the start - they had
/obviously/ got it wrong. Bojo\'s stubborn idiocy about rejecting
everything EU-related meant that they rejected an invitation for a
combined effort on getting PPE supplies. The result was that British
hospital staff were wearing bin liners instead of medical protection
equipment.

This has been followed by a continuous series of dithering,
mixed-messages, and utterly unrealistic promises.

Even the decisions that were made based on \"the best information
currently available\" were wrong - because in Bojo\'s little mind, the
\"best\" information to use is whatever ideas sound most optimistic, not
whatever appears to be most /realistic/.

Yes, it\'s fair to cut any government or leader a bit of slack in a time
like this - but not so much slack for Bojo to be judged anything better
than \"totally incompetent\".

Based on the UK\'s present 45k fatality to date that puts 60% herd
immunity on a community wide basis at 450k fatalities (80% 600k).
OTOH if you could keep it contained exclusively in the under 45\'s you
can almost get to 60% herd immunity just with another 20k deaths.

That\'s one idea - but since we don\'t know if herd immunity is achievable
at all, it\'s a pretty risky one!

Until we have an effective vaccine it is the only game in town.
No, it is not - for two reasons. One is that herd immunity is probably
not possible for this virus - and certainly extremely costly even if it
turns out to be possible.

The other is that there is a entirely possible alternative of fighting
to minimise the infections and spread of the virus through travel
restrictions, lockdowns, restricting social gatherings, encouraging
hygiene and social distancing, and tracking outbreaks. Other countries
manage it.

And despite the economic and social costs involved in limiting the
disease, it is still vastly cheaper and less damaging than any \"herd
immunity\" tactic, as well as having far lower risk of failure.

The
objective at present must be to limit the economic damage with the
fewest overall number of fatalities. And that includes those who die
indirectly from other serious conditions through not being treated due
to Covid. Or because hospitals and governments run out of money.
The /worst/ choice is prolonged mid-level lockdown and restriction,
which is what you get when some twat politician says \"balance\". It is
better to take a harder but shorter economic hit to get this thing under
control.

It looks like Fergusson\'s simulations may not have been that far off.
(he predicted 500k to herd immunity and was ridiculed for it)

In the USA, the states that had no mandatory lockdown have had
about 1/3 the PPM deaths of the US average. That\'s not causal, but
it\'s interesting.

It is neither.  You cherry pick data left and right.  You use total
numbers to compare this thing, you use daily numbers to compare that
thing.  You would be a horrible scientist because you don\'t
understand  how to analyze data so as to compare apples with apples.

It could also be mixing cause and effect - many US states, like many
countries, have been waiting until their infection or death rates are
high before enforcing lockdowns.

UK did that pretty much and it amounted to changing horses mid-stream
and so obtaining the worst characteristics of two viable strategies.

Personally I think a hard lockdown sooner on those over 45 and social
distancing and hygiene measures for everyone else would have been much
better. But they panicked on seeing the Fergusson paper and the rest is
history. Only when it is all done and dusted will we be able to tell who
was right about this. UK economy is now in extreme record breaking
recession down by 20% in the last quarter (2008 recession was 2%).


Of course, it doesn\'t help the UK that this happened in the middle of
the biggest upheaval since WWII - Brexit and Bojo would have caused a
recession without Covid.

That joy is still to come. I know a lot about Japan having lived there
and was bemused by the breakdown of bilateral trade negotiations earlier
this week over Stilton cheese! Only expats buy it so the cheese market
in Japan is of negligible value. Our \"negotiators\" are utterly clueless.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53737388?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38507481
Yes, I read about that. The Japanese do buy some dairy products for
their own use, but they are /extremely/ fussy about where they get it -
and price is not an issue. I know they buy cheese and yoghurt from
specific dairies in Norway, but everything is about the standards and
quality of the raw ingredients and the production process. Pricing
levels are basically irrelevant for that market.

Headline writers loved it:
 \"Stilton drives wedge between UK-Japan Brexit deal\".

And these two total failures by the UK government and English-led
insanities have guaranteed that Scotland will break free sooner or
later.  That will be another huge upheaval.

The only thing that might make them stay is that North Sea oil is in
freefall.
They cannot make money at the current oil price.
That won\'t help - Scotland already knows that in the divorce settlement,
England will grab most of the worth of Scottish oil anyway. Obviously
Scotland would /want/ to keep all their oil money, but no one has
thought it was realistic.

In Europe at least, /opening/ borders is mostly a political thing.
Norway has given in to pressure to open its borders despite having
lower
rates than most other countries.  But they\'ve given in to pressure to
open borders to foreign tourists, and for Norwegians to go to other
countries, with the result that we are now increasing significantly
again.

Countries where a lot of income is generated by tourism have a big
problem with this. Tank the economy or open the borders up to all.

Broken economies have a chance of recovery.  Dead people do not.

Depends how dead you make the economy. Risk analysis by one of the
Bristol group suggested that if the economic recession exceeds 12% then
the longer term indirect fatalities arising from that will be broadly
comparable with the directly caused fatalities from Covid.
Does that account for all the indirect health problems from Covid - such
as the people who will never work again, or die ten years earlier as a
result of lung scarring? Does it account for the economic cost of more
people getting Covid and being unable to work for extended periods?
Does it account for keeping money in the country if people couldn\'t go
abroad for their summer holidays, but spend them in the UK instead?

> UK recession is already 20%.

The way to limit that (to some extent at least) was simple and obvious -
Bojo refused.

Tourism is a significant part of Norwegian economy (though not nearly as
big a part as for southern Europe).


In general it does make sense to limit the maximum distance you are
allowed to travel during a pandemic.

Yes.

England completely screwed this one
up too and had mostly young people from all over the country descend on
Brighton beach for what was in effect a massive Covid party. Death rates
didn\'t increase much though infections did (just broke through 1k/day).

Scotland told people not to travel more than 5 miles unnecessarily.
This was not enforced very tightly, but a lot better than England.

Containment went to hell in a handcart when Cummings went walkabout
taking the Covid infection with him and got away with it.
Yes - that evil little sod should have been executed as a traitor to his
country (along with Ress Mogg, Farrage, and several others) years ago.
Bojo\'s cowardly treatment of his disregard for restrictions has caused
the deaths of thousands.

Looking at our UK 7 day average curve I think it is just at the start of
exponential growth again (R>1). By the end of next week I will be
certain. Spain and France are ahead of us and now well on their way up.

Wales limited people to travelling no more than 5 miles from their home
which seems a bit mean to me - where I live in England it is 10 miles to
the nearest shop in every direction! Rural Wales it is even further.

The limit is for /unnecessary/ travel.  You can travel for essential
shopping, or for work - but not for a beach party.

Having so many different sets of rules floating about and changing daily
it becomes impossible to keep track.
And that is one of the biggest failings of Bojo\'s \"leadership\".
 
D

David Brown

Guest
On 13/08/2020 17:22, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 13/08/20 16:01, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
The only test that really matters is death rate.

No #1: the only reliable measure is the /excess/ death rate
For countries with the epidemic under control, it\'s not necessarily
better. Norway has low enough numbers that we can give quite accurate
figures for people who have actually died due to Covid - but our excess
death rate is significantly lower than 0% because effective social
distancing and hand hygiene has reduced the rates of other diseases like
the seasonal flu.

No #2: severe long term side effects (which are slowly
beginning to become apparent) are arguably worse than
death.
Agreed.

Certainly I fear brain damage more than I fear death, and
I don\'t even have the comfortable thought of an afterlife
to look forward to.
 
T

Tom Gardner

Guest
On 14/08/20 10:57, David Brown wrote:
> And that is one of the biggest failings of Bojo\'s \"leadership\".

Cameron\'s \"leadership\" was best described as
\"Where do you want to go?\" ... \"That\'s OK, follow me\".

BoJos is little better, being
\"Where do I want to end up? ... \"That\'s OK, it will help
me getting there\"

And you don\'t mince your words about Cummings et al do you!

I completely agree, and would add that poisionous dwarf
Michael Gove - who reminds me of Sir Richard Rich in
\"A Man for All Seasons\".
 
S

server

Guest
On Fri, 14 Aug 2020 09:21:09 +0100, Martin Brown
<\'\'\'newspam\'\'\'@nonad.co.uk> wrote:

On 13/08/2020 20:59, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 13 Aug 2020 17:57:55 +0100, Martin Brown
\'\'\'newspam\'\'\'@nonad.co.uk> wrote:

On 13/08/2020 16:01, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 13 Aug 2020 09:27:54 +0100, Martin Brown
\'\'\'newspam\'\'\'@nonad.co.uk> wrote:

Looking at our UK 7 day average curve I think it is just at the start of
exponential growth again (R>1). By the end of next week I will be
certain. Spain and France are ahead of us and now well on their way up.

There are secondary humps all over the world. Australia is the poster
child for that.

If they don\'t successfully contain it then it will run free.

It will do that anyhow. They can change the time sacle.

It is an isolated large continent sparsely populated with relatively few
high density population centres they might be able to confine it well
enough for the infection to die out. UK might also have done so too if
we have been a bit more on the ball at the beginning.
C19 probably started with ONE infected human. All it takes to seed
exponential growth in any fairly dense population is one new case, and
every such country on the planet has many now. Border controls are too
late, and couldn\'t be maintained forever anyhow.

It could have been managed a lot better than anyone did, but walling
off and locking down a country forever isn\'t practical.




I note in passing that New Zealand have had to go back into lockdown in
Auckland and the UK has put France (and others) onto the quarantine
naughty step. France will immediately retaliate tot for tat but the
Dutch have said OK we see your point we will try to improve.
Lockdowns have to be maintained forever, or repeated. Many previously
locked and isolated countries are shoing second bumps now, some bigger
than the first one. Luckily, deaths are mostly lower than first bump.



Wales limited people to travelling no more than 5 miles from their home
which seems a bit mean to me - where I live in England it is 10 miles to
the nearest shop in every direction! Rural Wales it is even further.

The only test that really matters is death rate.

You have to worry about the KSI values too. For every one that dies two
are seriously injured possibly with life changing consequences. I feel
for the medics on the front line - some have had a very bad time of it.

It\'s down to near
zero in Sweden, about 1% of peak and declining. Why?

Mostly young people on holiday getting infected at the moment. Same
across most of Europe hot sunshine beaches and booze.

The daily new-case rate in most of europe is way down from peak, and
very far down in Sweden, about 1/4 of peak. Deaths there are close to
zero.

In part because most of the extremely vulnerable have already died and
the remaining ones are shielding very carefully now. It is the same in
the UK I know people who have not been out to a physical shop since
lockdown began (just elderly not with a requirement for shielding).

Sounds like herd immunity to me, especially if the kids are partying
again.

It might sound like that to you since you choose to interpret everything
with Wratten 29 rose tinted glasses. Pollyanna has nothing on you.
Getting personal again, when you don\'t dare to think or discuss. Do
you design electronics?



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard
 
J

Joerg

Guest
On 2020-08-13 13:45, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 13/08/20 21:02, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 13 Aug 2020 09:13:41 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2020-08-09 10:53, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 09/08/20 18:19, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 09 Aug 2020 08:46:20 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2020-08-09 07:34, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 9 Aug 2020 06:57:04 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 09/08/20 01:47, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

[...]


Skiing isn\'t really very dangerous.

My daughter and I watched someone die at Breckenridge.
A local man fell, slid, made a memorable \"crump\" as he
hit a water cannon, and didn\'t move. I called out the
blood bath when our chairlift reached the top.


Our insurance agent almost died. He hit a tree. The tree won.


Any ordinary vacation, like a beach or something, I keep thinking
about stuff.

Yes. I can sit on a beach for a day or so, then I\'m off
using local busses to explore local towns, or off on the
train to another destination.


Skiing is totally absorbing, an entirely different world,
and you can do it all day.

Gliding is intense relaxed concentration, very similar
to skiing except it can be done locally.

I tried parachuting, but the duty cycle was absurd. At great expense
(and risk) you might actually do it for 10 minutes per day.


Not if you open up three seconds after the exit once in a while. The
others thought it was foolish to waste all this freefall fun but
once in
a while I just wanted to \"soar\", find thermals and all that.
Especially
if the pilot would drop us above 16,000 ft. Which, of course, wasn\'t
100% legit sans oxygen but fun.

[...]

I only made a few static jumps, from 3000\' or so, and the view was
cool, but it didn\'t seem to last long. How long does it take from 16K
feet?

I guess a wing-type chute could soar for a while. What\'s the glide
slope like on a good chute?

Apparently paragliders are 12:1, which is pisspoor - a 747
manages 15:1. Perhaps that is why many paragliders have big
fans on their back!

An old wooden glider will do >20:1, a modern plastic glider >50:1.


Parachutes are way worse. A high-priced monstrous military version can
give you 5:1 but the stuff we used was always below 4:1. Usually well
below.

https://airborne-sys.com/product/hi-5-military-ram-air-parachute/


I jumped with a 22\' war surplus chute. It hit the ground HARD.
During my first static-line jump I looked up as trained, to see that the
canopy was nicely open and no lines were tangled. Then I saw a printed
weight limit well below my own weight and fat lettering \"For Cargo Use
Only\".


You should have seen the plane.
What happened to the plane? We initially had a tired old Cessna that
some people called \"100,000 parts that somehow still cling together and
fly\". Later a Dornier 27 but that was forced into a museum when the
fuselage was 30 years old. The best was the occasional Shorts Sky Van
with turbine conversion.

When training us for the static line jump, we were shown a
picture that I\'ve never forgotten but cannot locate.

It was of an open parachute supporting the parachutist, with
the upside down aircraft suspended below by the static line.
The static line had a hangup, and the parachutist pulled the
cord, which stalled the aircraft.

The combination descended rapidly until the aircraft hit the
ground (hard), which gave the parachute just enough distance
to slow the parachutist so they made a normal landing.
This is why we had a cut-off tool. A sort of covered knife like
emergency responders use to cut safety belts. We were well trained in
the use of that because you must, for example, first cut away a failed
main parachute before pulling the reserve. Else the reserve could tangle
with the Roman candle and you could die.

I still have that somewhere. Should put it in the car, in case I come
upon an accident scene.

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/
 
J

John Larkin

Guest
On Fri, 14 Aug 2020 10:05:07 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com>
wrote:

On 2020-08-13 13:45, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 13/08/20 21:02, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 13 Aug 2020 09:13:41 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2020-08-09 10:53, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 09/08/20 18:19, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 09 Aug 2020 08:46:20 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2020-08-09 07:34, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 9 Aug 2020 06:57:04 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 09/08/20 01:47, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

[...]


Skiing isn\'t really very dangerous.

My daughter and I watched someone die at Breckenridge.
A local man fell, slid, made a memorable \"crump\" as he
hit a water cannon, and didn\'t move. I called out the
blood bath when our chairlift reached the top.


Our insurance agent almost died. He hit a tree. The tree won.


Any ordinary vacation, like a beach or something, I keep thinking
about stuff.

Yes. I can sit on a beach for a day or so, then I\'m off
using local busses to explore local towns, or off on the
train to another destination.


Skiing is totally absorbing, an entirely different world,
and you can do it all day.

Gliding is intense relaxed concentration, very similar
to skiing except it can be done locally.

I tried parachuting, but the duty cycle was absurd. At great expense
(and risk) you might actually do it for 10 minutes per day.


Not if you open up three seconds after the exit once in a while. The
others thought it was foolish to waste all this freefall fun but
once in
a while I just wanted to \"soar\", find thermals and all that.
Especially
if the pilot would drop us above 16,000 ft. Which, of course, wasn\'t
100% legit sans oxygen but fun.

[...]

I only made a few static jumps, from 3000\' or so, and the view was
cool, but it didn\'t seem to last long. How long does it take from 16K
feet?

I guess a wing-type chute could soar for a while. What\'s the glide
slope like on a good chute?

Apparently paragliders are 12:1, which is pisspoor - a 747
manages 15:1. Perhaps that is why many paragliders have big
fans on their back!

An old wooden glider will do >20:1, a modern plastic glider >50:1.


Parachutes are way worse. A high-priced monstrous military version can
give you 5:1 but the stuff we used was always below 4:1. Usually well
below.

https://airborne-sys.com/product/hi-5-military-ram-air-parachute/


I jumped with a 22\' war surplus chute. It hit the ground HARD.


During my first static-line jump I looked up as trained, to see that the
canopy was nicely open and no lines were tangled. Then I saw a printed
weight limit well below my own weight and fat lettering \"For Cargo Use
Only\".


You should have seen the plane.


What happened to the plane?
It was an ancient Beech with all the linings ripped out, all the
control cables and wiring in plain sight. You should have seen the
runway.




We initially had a tired old Cessna that
some people called \"100,000 parts that somehow still cling together and
fly\". Later a Dornier 27 but that was forced into a museum when the
fuselage was 30 years old. The best was the occasional Shorts Sky Van
with turbine conversion.


When training us for the static line jump, we were shown a
picture that I\'ve never forgotten but cannot locate.

It was of an open parachute supporting the parachutist, with
the upside down aircraft suspended below by the static line.
The static line had a hangup, and the parachutist pulled the
cord, which stalled the aircraft.

The combination descended rapidly until the aircraft hit the
ground (hard), which gave the parachute just enough distance
to slow the parachutist so they made a normal landing.


This is why we had a cut-off tool. A sort of covered knife like
emergency responders use to cut safety belts. We were well trained in
the use of that because you must, for example, first cut away a failed
main parachute before pulling the reserve. Else the reserve could tangle
with the Roman candle and you could die.

I still have that somewhere. Should put it in the car, in case I come
upon an accident scene.
We had an incident at Sugar Bowl that needed ski patrol help. The guy
was great. He showed us the surgical scissors that he always carries.
 
J

Joerg

Guest
On 2020-08-14 10:39, John Larkin wrote:
On Fri, 14 Aug 2020 10:05:07 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2020-08-13 13:45, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 13/08/20 21:02, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 13 Aug 2020 09:13:41 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2020-08-09 10:53, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 09/08/20 18:19, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 09 Aug 2020 08:46:20 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2020-08-09 07:34, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 9 Aug 2020 06:57:04 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 09/08/20 01:47, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

[...]


Skiing isn\'t really very dangerous.

My daughter and I watched someone die at Breckenridge.
A local man fell, slid, made a memorable \"crump\" as he
hit a water cannon, and didn\'t move. I called out the
blood bath when our chairlift reached the top.


Our insurance agent almost died. He hit a tree. The tree won.


Any ordinary vacation, like a beach or something, I keep thinking
about stuff.

Yes. I can sit on a beach for a day or so, then I\'m off
using local busses to explore local towns, or off on the
train to another destination.


Skiing is totally absorbing, an entirely different world,
and you can do it all day.

Gliding is intense relaxed concentration, very similar
to skiing except it can be done locally.

I tried parachuting, but the duty cycle was absurd. At great expense
(and risk) you might actually do it for 10 minutes per day.


Not if you open up three seconds after the exit once in a while. The
others thought it was foolish to waste all this freefall fun but
once in
a while I just wanted to \"soar\", find thermals and all that.
Especially
if the pilot would drop us above 16,000 ft. Which, of course, wasn\'t
100% legit sans oxygen but fun.

[...]

I only made a few static jumps, from 3000\' or so, and the view was
cool, but it didn\'t seem to last long. How long does it take from 16K
feet?

I guess a wing-type chute could soar for a while. What\'s the glide
slope like on a good chute?

Apparently paragliders are 12:1, which is pisspoor - a 747
manages 15:1. Perhaps that is why many paragliders have big
fans on their back!

An old wooden glider will do >20:1, a modern plastic glider >50:1.


Parachutes are way worse. A high-priced monstrous military version can
give you 5:1 but the stuff we used was always below 4:1. Usually well
below.

https://airborne-sys.com/product/hi-5-military-ram-air-parachute/


I jumped with a 22\' war surplus chute. It hit the ground HARD.


During my first static-line jump I looked up as trained, to see that the
canopy was nicely open and no lines were tangled. Then I saw a printed
weight limit well below my own weight and fat lettering \"For Cargo Use
Only\".


You should have seen the plane.


What happened to the plane?

It was an ancient Beech with all the linings ripped out, all the
control cables and wiring in plain sight.
Sounds similar to our Cessna.


... You should have seen the runway.
Ours was a grass runway. That was real fun when heavily loaded after a
rainstorm or with slushy snow. Once we almost crashed into pine trees
farther out because we could barely gain altitude. The usually totally
quiet pilot let off some cuss words, we all snapped to attention, there
was a THWOP sound and we could see the snow flying off a tree top.

We initially had a tired old Cessna that
some people called \"100,000 parts that somehow still cling together and
fly\". Later a Dornier 27 but that was forced into a museum when the
fuselage was 30 years old. The best was the occasional Shorts Sky Van
with turbine conversion.


When training us for the static line jump, we were shown a
picture that I\'ve never forgotten but cannot locate.

It was of an open parachute supporting the parachutist, with
the upside down aircraft suspended below by the static line.
The static line had a hangup, and the parachutist pulled the
cord, which stalled the aircraft.

The combination descended rapidly until the aircraft hit the
ground (hard), which gave the parachute just enough distance
to slow the parachutist so they made a normal landing.


This is why we had a cut-off tool. A sort of covered knife like
emergency responders use to cut safety belts. We were well trained in
the use of that because you must, for example, first cut away a failed
main parachute before pulling the reserve. Else the reserve could tangle
with the Roman candle and you could die.

I still have that somewhere. Should put it in the car, in case I come
upon an accident scene.

We had an incident at Sugar Bowl that needed ski patrol help. The guy
was great. He showed us the surgical scissors that he always carries.
I have an old pair in my garage tool cabinet. Forceps are very practical
as well for holding stuff in place.

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/
 
T

Tom Gardner

Guest
On 14/08/20 18:05, Joerg wrote:
On 2020-08-13 13:45, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 13/08/20 21:02, John Larkin wrote:
On Thu, 13 Aug 2020 09:13:41 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2020-08-09 10:53, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 09/08/20 18:19, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 09 Aug 2020 08:46:20 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com
wrote:

On 2020-08-09 07:34, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 9 Aug 2020 06:57:04 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 09/08/20 01:47, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

[...]


Skiing isn\'t really very dangerous.

My daughter and I watched someone die at Breckenridge.
A local man fell, slid, made a memorable \"crump\" as he
hit a water cannon, and didn\'t move. I called out the
blood bath when our chairlift reached the top.


Our insurance agent almost died. He hit a tree. The tree won.


Any ordinary vacation, like a beach or something, I keep thinking
about stuff.

Yes. I can sit on a beach for a day or so, then I\'m off
using local busses to explore local towns, or off on the
train to another destination.


Skiing is totally absorbing, an entirely different world,
and you can do it all day.

Gliding is intense relaxed concentration, very similar
to skiing except it can be done locally.

I tried parachuting, but the duty cycle was absurd. At great expense
(and risk) you might actually do it for 10 minutes per day.


Not if you open up three seconds after the exit once in a while. The
others thought it was foolish to waste all this freefall fun but
once in
a while I just wanted to \"soar\", find thermals and all that.
Especially
if the pilot would drop us above 16,000 ft. Which, of course, wasn\'t
100% legit sans oxygen but fun.

[...]

I only made a few static jumps, from 3000\' or so, and the view was
cool, but it didn\'t seem to last long. How long does it take from 16K
feet?

I guess a wing-type chute could soar for a while. What\'s the glide
slope like on a good chute?

Apparently paragliders are 12:1, which is pisspoor - a 747
manages 15:1. Perhaps that is why many paragliders have big
fans on their back!

An old wooden glider will do >20:1, a modern plastic glider >50:1.


Parachutes are way worse. A high-priced monstrous military version can
give you 5:1 but the stuff we used was always below 4:1. Usually well
below.

https://airborne-sys.com/product/hi-5-military-ram-air-parachute/


I jumped with a 22\' war surplus chute. It hit the ground HARD.


During my first static-line jump I looked up as trained, to see that the canopy
was nicely open and no lines were tangled. Then I saw a printed weight limit
well below my own weight and fat lettering \"For Cargo Use Only\".


You should have seen the plane.


What happened to the plane? We initially had a tired old Cessna that some people
called \"100,000 parts that somehow still cling together and fly\". Later a
Dornier 27 but that was forced into a museum when the fuselage was 30 years old.
The best was the occasional Shorts Sky Van with turbine conversion.
A few years after I stopped the plane I used (a 6-passenger
Pilatus) was on the way up when the wing spar buckled.

The parachutists said \"Oh. Byeeeee\", and exited right, at
speed. The plane landed OK.


When training us for the static line jump, we were shown a
picture that I\'ve never forgotten but cannot locate.

It was of an open parachute supporting the parachutist, with
the upside down aircraft suspended below by the static line.
The static line had a hangup, and the parachutist pulled the
cord, which stalled the aircraft.

The combination descended rapidly until the aircraft hit the
ground (hard), which gave the parachute just enough distance
to slow the parachutist so they made a normal landing.


This is why we had a cut-off tool. A sort of covered knife like emergency
responders use to cut safety belts. We were well trained in the use of that
because you must, for example, first cut away a failed main parachute before
pulling the reserve. Else the reserve could tangle with the Roman candle and you
could die.
If there was a hangup, we were taught to hang there with
our arms crossed over our chest, to indicate we were still
conscious.

There was a large hunting knife on the wall for the
jumpmaster to cut the strap, then we would use the reserve.
The perp panicked, and pulled the reserve while hungup.

There was a case where the parachutist wasn\'t conscious,
so the jumpmaster climbed down the strap, held the parachutist,
and cut the strap. Then he pulled the reserve, and finally
pulled his own chute.

All survived, the jumpmaster got a medal.


I still have that somewhere. Should put it in the car, in case I come upon an
accident scene.
Would the local law enforcement ask questions if they
found it?

Over here it is illegal to have a baseball bat by your
bed to \"punish\" burglars; it would be premeditation.
But a big heavy torch would be no problem :)
 
J

Joerg

Guest
On 2020-08-14 12:11, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 14/08/20 18:05, Joerg wrote:
On 2020-08-13 13:45, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 13/08/20 21:02, John Larkin wrote:
[...]

You should have seen the plane.


What happened to the plane? We initially had a tired old Cessna that
some people called \"100,000 parts that somehow still cling together
and fly\". Later a Dornier 27 but that was forced into a museum when
the fuselage was 30 years old. The best was the occasional Shorts Sky
Van with turbine conversion.

A few years after I stopped the plane I used (a 6-passenger
Pilatus) was on the way up when the wing spar buckled.

The parachutists said \"Oh. Byeeeee\", and exited right, at
speed. The plane landed OK.
Yikes. The worst we ever had was a rumble and then something fell onto
the runway. Someone ran out, retrieved it, checked it out. IIRC it was
the alternator that had fallen off.

When training us for the static line jump, we were shown a
picture that I\'ve never forgotten but cannot locate.

It was of an open parachute supporting the parachutist, with
the upside down aircraft suspended below by the static line.
The static line had a hangup, and the parachutist pulled the
cord, which stalled the aircraft.

The combination descended rapidly until the aircraft hit the
ground (hard), which gave the parachute just enough distance
to slow the parachutist so they made a normal landing.


This is why we had a cut-off tool. A sort of covered knife like
emergency responders use to cut safety belts. We were well trained in
the use of that because you must, for example, first cut away a failed
main parachute before pulling the reserve. Else the reserve could
tangle with the Roman candle and you could die.

If there was a hangup, we were taught to hang there with
our arms crossed over our chest, to indicate we were still
conscious.
Why not cut? It can save you, the crew and the plane. Plus maybe other
parachutists on static line who now can\'t exit anymore or would have to
jump reserve-only (many would freeze just thinking about that).


There was a large hunting knife on the wall for the
jumpmaster to cut the strap, then we would use the reserve.
The perp panicked, and pulled the reserve while hungup.

There was a case where the parachutist wasn\'t conscious,
so the jumpmaster climbed down the strap, held the parachutist,
and cut the strap. Then he pulled the reserve, and finally
pulled his own chute.

All survived, the jumpmaster got a medal.
Rightfully so! He is a true hero.

I still have that somewhere. Should put it in the car, in case I come
upon an accident scene.

Would the local law enforcement ask questions if they
found it?
I am sure not about this one. It looks similar to this, just with a
slightly longer blade:

https://www.amazon.com/Talon-Rescue-Emergency-Clothing-Cutter/dp/B0050J9VGA


Over here it is illegal to have a baseball bat by your
bed to \"punish\" burglars; it would be premeditation.
But a big heavy torch would be no problem :)
You need better freedom over there :)

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/
 
T

Tom Gardner

Guest
On 14/08/20 20:46, Joerg wrote:
On 2020-08-14 12:11, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 14/08/20 18:05, Joerg wrote:
On 2020-08-13 13:45, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 13/08/20 21:02, John Larkin wrote:


[...]

You should have seen the plane.


What happened to the plane? We initially had a tired old Cessna that
some people called \"100,000 parts that somehow still cling together
and fly\". Later a Dornier 27 but that was forced into a museum when
the fuselage was 30 years old. The best was the occasional Shorts Sky
Van with turbine conversion.

A few years after I stopped the plane I used (a 6-passenger
Pilatus) was on the way up when the wing spar buckled.

The parachutists said \"Oh. Byeeeee\", and exited right, at
speed. The plane landed OK.


Yikes. The worst we ever had was a rumble and then something fell onto the
runway. Someone ran out, retrieved it, checked it out. IIRC it was the
alternator that had fallen off.


When training us for the static line jump, we were shown a
picture that I\'ve never forgotten but cannot locate.

It was of an open parachute supporting the parachutist, with
the upside down aircraft suspended below by the static line.
The static line had a hangup, and the parachutist pulled the
cord, which stalled the aircraft.

The combination descended rapidly until the aircraft hit the
ground (hard), which gave the parachute just enough distance
to slow the parachutist so they made a normal landing.


This is why we had a cut-off tool. A sort of covered knife like
emergency responders use to cut safety belts. We were well trained in
the use of that because you must, for example, first cut away a failed
main parachute before pulling the reserve. Else the reserve could
tangle with the Roman candle and you could die.

If there was a hangup, we were taught to hang there with
our arms crossed over our chest, to indicate we were still
conscious.


Why not cut? It can save you, the crew and the plane.
That would happen next.

Plus maybe other
parachutists on static line who now can\'t exit anymore or would have to jump
reserve-only (many would freeze just thinking about that).


There was a large hunting knife on the wall for the
jumpmaster to cut the strap, then we would use the reserve.
The perp panicked, and pulled the reserve while hungup.

There was a case where the parachutist wasn\'t conscious,
so the jumpmaster climbed down the strap, held the parachutist,
and cut the strap. Then he pulled the reserve, and finally
pulled his own chute.

All survived, the jumpmaster got a medal.


Rightfully so! He is a true hero.


I still have that somewhere. Should put it in the car, in case I come
upon an accident scene.

Would the local law enforcement ask questions if they
found it?


I am sure not about this one. It looks similar to this, just with a slightly
longer blade:

https://www.amazon.com/Talon-Rescue-Emergency-Clothing-Cutter/dp/B0050J9VGA


Over here it is illegal to have a baseball bat by your
bed to \"punish\" burglars; it would be premeditation.
But a big heavy torch would be no problem :)


You need better freedom over there :)
Too much such \"freedom\" in the US was one reason my parents
de-emigrated after 18 months when I was ~18 months old.

I and my mother were in a streetcar when I was suddenly
showered with broken glass. A yahoo had taken a pot shot
at the streetcar. Apparently that wasn\'t rare.

My parents said \"Oh, byeeee\", and exited right. They too
landed OK - after an appalling journey because the
ship\'s stabilisers failed in a storm.
 
J

Joerg

Guest
On 2020-08-14 13:04, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 14/08/20 20:46, Joerg wrote:
On 2020-08-14 12:11, Tom Gardner wrote:
[...]


Over here it is illegal to have a baseball bat by your
bed to \"punish\" burglars; it would be premeditation.
But a big heavy torch would be no problem :)


You need better freedom over there :)

Too much such \"freedom\" in the US was one reason my parents
de-emigrated after 18 months when I was ~18 months old.

I and my mother were in a streetcar when I was suddenly
showered with broken glass. A yahoo had taken a pot shot
at the streetcar. Apparently that wasn\'t rare.
That happened to me in Germany. I was a young teenager on my way to my
grandma\'s house. The train started rocking a bit, then weird noise. It
stopped half a mile short of the rail station. Then I heard shattering
glass, saw beer bottles flying out of the car in front of us. Then some
blood. I was outta there. It was illegal to leave train between stations
but I didn\'t want to die.

Turns out the soccer team Borussia Dortmung had lost against the what
their fans considered \"hicks\" from Muenster and that didn\'t sit well
with them.


My parents said \"Oh, byeeee\", and exited right. They too
landed OK - after an appalling journey because the
ship\'s stabilisers failed in a storm.
Oops ...

I once had a trip across the channel to the UK, very rough seas. A crew
member mumbled \"S..t, we shouldn\'t have sailed in this bloody storm\".
People hanging over the railing in the process of food intake reversal.
Long lines at the bathrooms, some folks couldn\'t hold it anymore, awful
stench. So I went to the cantina, paid for one meal and they said \"Eat
whatever you want, as much as you want, it\'ll all go to waste anyhow!\".
Woohoo!

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/
 
T

Tom Gardner

Guest
On 14/08/20 21:41, Joerg wrote:
On 2020-08-14 13:04, Tom Gardner wrote:

My parents said \"Oh, byeeee\", and exited right. They too
landed OK - after an appalling journey because the
ship\'s stabilisers failed in a storm.


Oops ...

I once had a trip across the channel to the UK, very rough seas. A crew member
mumbled \"S..t, we shouldn\'t have sailed in this bloody storm\". People hanging
over the railing in the process of food intake reversal. Long lines at the
bathrooms, some folks couldn\'t hold it anymore, awful stench. So I went to the
cantina, paid for one meal and they said \"Eat whatever you want, as much as you
want, it\'ll all go to waste anyhow!\". Woohoo!
I don\'t ever /remember/ having a rough time on a ship.
I\'ve always wondered what it felt like to be seasick.

A previous manager was on a boat from Santander in Spain
to the UK. Ten minutes out of port waves were breaking
across the bridge.

You could have food, (but not soup!) and you had to take it
to from the galley to the table yourself.

I\'ve had two occasions when I felt mildly seasick. Once
was on a funfair ride, going up and down in a circle - no
problem until I turned my head sideways. The other was in
a glider known as the \"vomit comet\", due to the P1\'s
vigorous dolphining. Again, no problem until I turned my head
sideways.

Dolphining is putting the nose down to fly fast through
sink, then when you find lift you stay in it for longer
by pointing the nose up at 45 degrees until you have slowed
down.

None of this \"straight and level\" tedium you have in
powered aircraft, oh no.
 
J

Joerg

Guest
On 2020-08-14 16:20, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 14/08/20 21:41, Joerg wrote:
On 2020-08-14 13:04, Tom Gardner wrote:

My parents said \"Oh, byeeee\", and exited right. They too
landed OK - after an appalling journey because the
ship\'s stabilisers failed in a storm.


Oops ...

I once had a trip across the channel to the UK, very rough seas. A
crew member mumbled \"S..t, we shouldn\'t have sailed in this bloody
storm\". People hanging over the railing in the process of food intake
reversal. Long lines at the bathrooms, some folks couldn\'t hold it
anymore, awful stench. So I went to the cantina, paid for one meal and
they said \"Eat whatever you want, as much as you want, it\'ll all go to
waste anyhow!\". Woohoo!

I don\'t ever /remember/ having a rough time on a ship.
I\'ve always wondered what it felt like to be seasick.
Same here, I just do not become sea-sick or air-sick.


A previous manager was on a boat from Santander in Spain
to the UK. Ten minutes out of port waves were breaking
across the bridge.

You could have food, (but not soup!) and you had to take it
to from the galley to the table yourself.

I\'ve had two occasions when I felt mildly seasick. Once
was on a funfair ride, going up and down in a circle - no
problem until I turned my head sideways. The other was in
a glider known as the \"vomit comet\", due to the P1\'s
vigorous dolphining. Again, no problem until I turned my head
sideways.

Dolphining is putting the nose down to fly fast through
sink, then when you find lift you stay in it for longer
by pointing the nose up at 45 degrees until you have slowed
down.

None of this \"straight and level\" tedium you have in
powered aircraft, oh no.
My most fun flight was in a Boeing Stearman with a souped-up engine. The
pilot asked whether some aerobatics would be ok with me. \"Well, I did
parachuting before so I guess, yeah\" ... \"Alright! Let\'s go south of Hwy
50 just in case we auger in\" ... and the fun began. At the end he let me
fly it back to the airport. I don\'t have a pilot\'s license but he was
watching.

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/
 
T

Tom Gardner

Guest
On 15/08/20 20:02, Joerg wrote:
On 2020-08-14 16:20, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 14/08/20 21:41, Joerg wrote:
On 2020-08-14 13:04, Tom Gardner wrote:

My parents said \"Oh, byeeee\", and exited right. They too
landed OK - after an appalling journey because the
ship\'s stabilisers failed in a storm.


Oops ...

I once had a trip across the channel to the UK, very rough seas. A
crew member mumbled \"S..t, we shouldn\'t have sailed in this bloody
storm\". People hanging over the railing in the process of food intake
reversal. Long lines at the bathrooms, some folks couldn\'t hold it
anymore, awful stench. So I went to the cantina, paid for one meal and
they said \"Eat whatever you want, as much as you want, it\'ll all go to
waste anyhow!\". Woohoo!

I don\'t ever /remember/ having a rough time on a ship.
I\'ve always wondered what it felt like to be seasick.


Same here, I just do not become sea-sick or air-sick.


A previous manager was on a boat from Santander in Spain
to the UK. Ten minutes out of port waves were breaking
across the bridge.

You could have food, (but not soup!) and you had to take it
to from the galley to the table yourself.

I\'ve had two occasions when I felt mildly seasick. Once
was on a funfair ride, going up and down in a circle - no
problem until I turned my head sideways. The other was in
a glider known as the \"vomit comet\", due to the P1\'s
vigorous dolphining. Again, no problem until I turned my head
sideways.

Dolphining is putting the nose down to fly fast through
sink, then when you find lift you stay in it for longer
by pointing the nose up at 45 degrees until you have slowed
down.

None of this \"straight and level\" tedium you have in
powered aircraft, oh no.


My most fun flight was in a Boeing Stearman with a souped-up engine. The pilot
asked whether some aerobatics would be ok with me. \"Well, I did parachuting
before so I guess, yeah\" ... \"Alright! Let\'s go south of Hwy 50 just in case we
auger in\" ... and the fun began. At the end he let me fly it back to the
airport. I don\'t have a pilot\'s license but he was watching.
/All/ glider flights are like that, to some extent :)

Launch is 0-50 in 5s, then climb with your feet higher than
your head. If the cable breaks, you go over the top at 0G to
avoid stalling.

Tight thermalling pulls 3G, so your cheeks sag towards your feet.

Too high and want to get down quickly for a pee? Deliberately
spin down at 100ft/s.

For real entertainment and to scare the pants off a powered pilot,
enter a spin at 1000ft :)

And after all that we could consider the gliders *designed*
for aerobatics. The Fox is rated to +9G, -6G, and they tumble
through the air as well as any fighter :)
https://youtu.be/_zdOfhpe6rQ?t=55 (don\'t bother will all of it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9VbOJWYnyWE (only 16s)
 
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