J
John Larkin
Guest
On Wed, 4 Mar 2009 20:55:48 -0600, "Tim Williams"
<tmoranwms@charter.net> wrote:
can't imagine wanting anything like that, any more than I want to eat
8000 calories of food, or drink 12 gallon of beer, per day.
In my budget, electricity is essentially free; I spend more on lunch.
But I don't use anything like a kilowatt average; my household (3
people, four pets) doesn't average a kilowatt.
Extrapolation always leads to absurdities.
Even a few hundred average watts, to run some water pumps and
purifiers, or to supply some lighting so the kids could study, or to
allow cooking without hauling scarce wood for miles, could radically
improve the lives of the poorest people.
Cheap and clean electric power would be a benefit to mankind. Fission
could do that if it was managed sensibly.
english muffins, we wouldn't have refrigerators or forced-air heat, no
running water, no TV or computing after dark.
John
<tmoranwms@charter.net> wrote:
What would I do with four kilowatts of continuous electric power? I"John Larkin" <jjlarkin@highNOTlandTHIStechnologyPART.com> wrote in message
news:33cuq4pnuo2ab67sd634en214fmof04123@4ax.com...
The sun dumps about a kilowatt per square meter of heat onto us. The
surface area of the earth is about 5e14 m^2, about 100,000 m^2 per
person. So if everybody consumes a kilowatt, which is unlikely, the
relative energy is insignificant.
Alright, you're getting there. That's about what the U.S. is burning right
now, for example. 10ppm isn't much, right? Well, consider if the world
average becomes the same. That's a bit more right there, but now we're
talking 10ppm for the whole world, still not much. Consider also if the
world population reaches its expected saturation value (what was it, 18
gigapersons?). That triples the total power output, but that's not another
order of magnitude, we're still safe. Alright, now consider that, even if
population growth is logistic, energy use will continue to grow
expoentially, following technology, which will continue to develop
regardless. If you figure it's doubling every 30 years (that's what a
healthy capitalist economy is supposed to need; if it's supported mostly by
technological advance, that would work out fairly well), you'll use up those
three orders of magnitude of "how much less power people are using compared
to total insolance" fairly quickly. I think I got a figure of three
centuries, which ain't long. And then you're not even working against
greenhouse gasses but sheer power output itself, and that's a whole hell of
a lot harder to cope with.
can't imagine wanting anything like that, any more than I want to eat
8000 calories of food, or drink 12 gallon of beer, per day.
In my budget, electricity is essentially free; I spend more on lunch.
But I don't use anything like a kilowatt average; my household (3
people, four pets) doesn't average a kilowatt.
Extrapolation always leads to absurdities.
Even a few hundred average watts, to run some water pumps and
purifiers, or to supply some lighting so the kids could study, or to
allow cooking without hauling scarce wood for miles, could radically
improve the lives of the poorest people.
Cheap and clean electric power would be a benefit to mankind. Fission
could do that if it was managed sensibly.
Six orders is silly. We couldn't see at night, we couldn't toastSo the ultimate message is, use less power. It is as true today as its
necessity 300 years from now. Quantum limits on fabrication and computation
are immensely small, there's nothing stopping us from being efficient.
Imagine using six orders of magnitude less power consumption, just by sheer
design alone.
english muffins, we wouldn't have refrigerators or forced-air heat, no
running water, no TV or computing after dark.
John