The Biden Administration is winging it about electrification...

R

Ricky

Guest
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:22:32 PM UTC-4, rbowman wrote:
On 07/30/2022 09:48 AM, Ralph Mowery wrote:
In article <a7c42310-3b41-45f9...@googlegroups.com>,
gnuarm.del...@gmail.com says...

When all cars are BEVs, it will result in a 20% increase in total electrical generation from today\'s levels.

More than 95% of BEV charging is done at night, during the slack time of electrical demand. This 95+% will not require any additional generation or transmission capability. The remaining <5% of 20% or <1% of charging will be at peak time. So the existing grid will need to grow by 1% to accommodate charging that will happen at
peak time.

I think we can manage that.




While the cars are recharged at night, where are all the solar
generators going to get the sun light to power them ?

Does the wind blow at night like it does in the daytime ? That I do not
know.

In general, no. Excluding weather fronts thermal heating is responsible
for a lot of air motion. This is particularly noticeable in the desert.
The wind picks up when the sun rises and usually calms down after
sunset. If you don\'t like sand in your hamburgers grill after dark.

Not sure where you get your data. The daily wind profile varies a lot depending on location.

This one shows a typical profile of lower wind during mid day.

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/G-Ermolenko/publication/315613300/figure/fig7/AS:661215160320011@1534657387778/Daily-power-output-curves-unit-capacity-factor-by-3-MW-wind-turbines-at-the-height-of.png

This one shows pretty constant wind speeds over the ocean.

https://www.kyos.com/ppa-insight-on-solar-radiation-and-wind-speed-data/

Of course, all of these are at an altitude that suits windmills and is different from the surface speeds.

--

Rick C.

--+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
F

Flyguy

Guest
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 9:51:46 PM UTC-7, Ricky wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 2:47:30 PM UTC-4, Ralph Mowery wrote:
In article <669814fe-8865-4857...@googlegroups.com>,
gnuarm.del...@gmail.com says...

If you want to use solar power to charge your car, then charge it during the day when the duck curve is low. No one is stopping you.

You *do* have a BEV, right?


You just said charge at night when the demand is low, now you want to
charge during the day when the demand is low. What is it demand low at
night or day in your opinion ?
Perhaps you are not familiar with the fact that the electric demand curve has a peak around 6-8 pm. During the night, demand is much lower. During the day, demand is generally lower, but can be a lot lower, depending on the amount of solar generation there is. On sunny days in California (the state with the most BEVs) the demand curve drops significantly from solar generation, creating what is called a \"duck\" curve.

Look it up. You can probably learn a lot if you try reading about it.
I doubt I would ever have a BEV. Not paying thousands more for a car
over a gas one .
I think that is a wise idea for you. You probably would not be able to adapt to a change in paradigm. By the time electric cars have pushed out the ICE in 20 years, you will be long dead. Essentially, nothing you do from this point on will make any difference to anyone. No one cares what you do.
At my age (72) I may have already bought my last car, a 2017 and 2007
truck with only 75,000 miles on it. The wife has a 2020 car with less
than 5000 miles on it. For me, time is too short to worry about when and
where to plug in and wait while there are plenty of gas stations.
Just don\'t live too long. In 10 to 15 years, you will find the number of gas stations to decline seriously. But then you probably won\'t still be driving, and possibly not much else either. Yeah, your life expectancy is only 13 more years. Enjoy it while you can. If your wife is the same age, she will likely get to see the gas stations mostly closed.

--

Rick C.

--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

I think that it is you that better worry: the number of EV charging stations is not going to keep up with the growth of EVs. And pity the poor dolt that lives in an apartment and must depend upon public charging stations that will be over-whelmed with like citizens. Same thing goes when you are on the road and are forced to wait in line for hours to charge your EV while I spend 5 min to fill up at a gas station.
 
R

rbowman

Guest
On 07/30/2022 01:53 PM, Ed Lee wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 12:39:19 PM UTC-7, Ralph Mowery wrote:
In article <jklenh...@mid.individual.net>, bow...@montana.com
says...

In general, no. Excluding weather fronts thermal heating is responsible
for a lot of air motion. This is particularly noticeable in the desert.
The wind picks up when the sun rises and usually calms down after
sunset. If you don\'t like sand in your hamburgers grill after dark.




I thought something like that but did not know for sure. My thinking
was that not too long after sunset there was no heat to make much wind
where the wind generators would be at.

Perhaps to a lesser degree. But there is wind as long as the Earth is turning. We have rather windy nights near the ocean as well.

Throw in the ocean and you have a whole different set of conditions.

You need a physics 101 brush up too. The rotation brings the Coriolis
Effect into play, and controls the daily local heating but you\'re still
talking temperature gradients. When I was about 5 I thought the trees
caused wind by moving their branches but then I got a little better
grasp on reality. I also thought cows were female horses and cats were
female dogs and I got that straightened out. Sadly a lot of people
haven\'t gotten past gender confusion.

https://www.cactushugs.com/coachella-valley-winds-explained/

That\'s about San Gorgonio pass but a similar dynamic applies to Altamont
and Tehachapi. It\'s slightly different in desert areas with flatter
terrain because you\'re not getting the funnel effect.
 
R

rbowman

Guest
On 07/30/2022 03:29 PM, Ed Lee wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 2:09:59 PM UTC-7, Ed Lee wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 1:58:57 PM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 30 Jul 2022 23:36:43 +0300, upsid...@downunder.com wrote:

On Sat, 30 Jul 2022 08:33:39 -0700 (PDT), Ricky
gnuarm.del...@gmail.com> wrote:

On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 1:38:16 AM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:
They have NO CLUE what will be required of the electrical grid to support the quantity of EVs envisioned by these idiots. How much increase in grid capacity do YOU think will be required? Post your answers below.

When all cars are BEVs, it will result in a 20% increase in total electrical generation from today\'s levels.

More than 95% of BEV charging is done at night, during the slack time of electrical demand. This 95+% will not require any additional generation or transmission capability. The remaining <5% of 20% or <1% of charging will be at peak time. So the existing grid will need to grow by 1% to accommodate charging that will happen at peak time.

Depends on the electric production mix in a particular country.

If you have plenty of nuclear power, charging by night (and weekends)
makes perfectly sense.

However, if you have to use expensive peak power gas turbines during
the day, extending the high demand to the night would force to use
these expensive turbines into the night.

With plenty of solar power, charging during the day is also viable.

If you live in a sunny area and only drive short distances daily, you
could even live without external charging :) :)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightyear_One
That car has 5 m^2 solar panels of its own, so it would charge
batteries with a few hundred watts while driving on a sunny road or
when parked in a sunny car park.
Really funny. If the solar panels add 40 miles per day of range, it
would run about 5 MPH on solar power. In the summer. For $170,000.
The panel itself is only couple hundreds. I think i can put around 2 m^2 on my Leaf, for around $500 at 300W. It will add around 10 miles per day. Actually, i have to worry about overcharging, if I don\'t drive it for 4 or 5 days.

I have around 10kW solar panels in storage.

By the way, you can get 30% solar ITC with 10% to 20% add-on with battery. So, your Uncle Sam will pay half of the cost.

No, I\'ll pay half the cost. Sam is a deadbeat and doesn\'t work for a
living unless you call the Mafia style collection racket work.
 
S

server

Guest
On Sat, 30 Jul 2022 09:32:40 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
<bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 12:01:06 PM UTC-4, Ricky wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 11:48:32 AM UTC-4, Ralph Mowery wrote:
In article <a7c42310-3b41-45f9...@googlegroups.com>,
gnuarm.del...@gmail.com says...

When all cars are BEVs, it will result in a 20% increase in total electrical generation from today\'s levels.

More than 95% of BEV charging is done at night, during the slack time of electrical demand. This 95+% will not require any additional generation or transmission capability. The remaining <5% of 20% or <1% of charging will be at peak time. So the existing grid will need to grow by 1% to accommodate charging that will happen at
peak time.

I think we can manage that.



While the cars are recharged at night, where are all the solar
generators going to get the sun light to power them ?

Does the wind blow at night like it does in the daytime ? That I do not
know.
Lol.

If you want to use solar power to charge your car, then charge it during the day when the duck curve is low. No one is stopping you.

Care to explain what throttling back the nuclear generator output has to do with anything?

In countries with lots of nuclear capacity (like France), they have to
throttle back some nuclear reactors during the weekends due to lower
consumption. Thus, in such countries, it makes sense to concentrate EV
charging to the weekends (and also ordinary nights).
 
R

Ricky

Guest
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 2:02:14 AM UTC-4, upsid...@downunder.com wrote:
On Sat, 30 Jul 2022 09:32:40 -0700 (PDT), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 12:01:06 PM UTC-4, Ricky wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 11:48:32 AM UTC-4, Ralph Mowery wrote:
In article <a7c42310-3b41-45f9...@googlegroups.com>,
gnuarm.del...@gmail.com says...

When all cars are BEVs, it will result in a 20% increase in total electrical generation from today\'s levels.

More than 95% of BEV charging is done at night, during the slack time of electrical demand. This 95+% will not require any additional generation or transmission capability. The remaining <5% of 20% or <1% of charging will be at peak time. So the existing grid will need to grow by 1% to accommodate charging that will happen at
peak time.

I think we can manage that.



While the cars are recharged at night, where are all the solar
generators going to get the sun light to power them ?

Does the wind blow at night like it does in the daytime ? That I do not
know.
Lol.

If you want to use solar power to charge your car, then charge it during the day when the duck curve is low. No one is stopping you.

Care to explain what throttling back the nuclear generator output has to do with anything?
In countries with lots of nuclear capacity (like France), they have to
throttle back some nuclear reactors during the weekends due to lower
consumption. Thus, in such countries, it makes sense to concentrate EV
charging to the weekends (and also ordinary nights).

They actually do little to throttle back their nukes. They have smaller daily variations in demand load and manage that through 30% other generation sources.

--

Rick C.

-+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
A

Anthony William Sloman

Guest
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:00:31 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 7:14:47 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 11:02:16 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 12:51:23 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:38:16 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:

Sloman is living in LA-LA Land. No, solar cells ARE NOT going to bridge the gap in electrical power demand growth.

One has to wonder why Flyguy thinks that.

> Sloman has a child-like faith in renewables that doesn\'t match reality.

Flyguy has no connection with any kind of reality.

> Renewables aren\'t growing fast enough to even meet the growth in energy demand.

Renewables provided 826 billion kW.hrs in 2021 (in a total or 4.100 billion), up from 381 billion kW.hrs in 2008. Solar cells got a lot cheaper when China started producing cheap relatively high efficiency solar cells in tens time the volume that anybody had before

https://www.nrel.gov/news/program/2021/documenting-a-decade-of-cost-declines-for-pv-systems.html

Somebody needs to invest even more in making them in much higher volume - only about 1% of global electricity production comes from solar cells, and they are quite a bit cheaper than every other source, so there is a huge market out there.

> And Europe has discovered the folly of depending upon nondispatchable energy sources.

The folly is not investing in grid scale batteries when you start relaying on wind and solar for an appreciable part of your generation.

This hit Europe HARD last winter:
> https://time.com/6124191/winter-europe-energy/

Read what you post. It\'s dated 28th November, 2021 1:16 PM EST before winter had actually hit. It was simple alarmism.

> The Woke crowd simply can\'t listen to reason. Like Sloman they think that it will all just, somehow, work out.

As if Flyguy could produce or comprehend a reasoned argument. He quotes an alarmist forecast from last November, and thinks that that reflects what actually happened.

Nobody is saying that it isn\'t going to take work to move the generation system to the point where it can rely on mainly renewable sources, and they\'ve got to be capable of supplying a a higher peak current, and storing a lot of it for a day or two, in a way the current system can\'t manage.

It helps that renewable electricity is quite a bit cheaper than power from any other sources - though Flyguy doesn\'t seem to have noticed this, even if the Australian generating industry won\'t invest in any other generating capacity because its too expensive - but it is going to take time.

Flyguy can\'t learn anything new and doesn\'t think than anybody else can do any better. He\'s clearly not \"woke\" and doesn\'t seem to have been awake for years now.

There\'s no claim that it \"will all just somehow work out\". There is a claim that if we spend quite a lot of money on the right hardware, it will actually work out, but Flyguy is much too dim to have any clue about how much money or what kind of hardware.

He also thinks that a transition to electric vehicles will overload the electricity generating system, even though he couldn\'t look up the predictions of how much it would load the generating system, nor notice that the extra load for the US would be about ten years worth of the annual growth from 1950 to 2000, while electric cars are gong to take more than ten years to entirely take over the car market.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
F

Fred Bloggs

Guest
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 9:18:06 PM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 5:55:41 AM UTC-7, Fred Bloggs wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 1:38:16 AM UTC-4, Flyguy wrote:
They have NO CLUE what will be required of the electrical grid to support the quantity of EVs envisioned by these idiots. How much increase in grid capacity do YOU think will be required? Post your answers below.
They have no clue? Really? Do you really think the U.S. government and industry are basically doing nothing that isn\'t publicized in the media for mentally defectives that you watch?

DoE (Dept Energy for you) is on it. They formed and coordinated a Grid Integration Tech Team (GITT) and Integrated Systems Analysis Tech Team (ISATT) to tap into the best and most relevant knowledge about the subject. As you might expect, the teams have representatives of the electrical power generation industry as they just might have a smidge to do with the actual implementation, don\'t you think? Looks like the following participated:
American Electric Power,
Argonne National Laboratory, BP America, Chevron Corporation, DTE Energy, Duke Energy,
the Electric Power Research Institute, ExxonMobil Corporation, FCA US LLC, Ford Motor
Company, General Motors, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Oak Ridge National
Laboratory, Idaho National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Phillips 66
Company, Shell Oil Products U.S., Southern California Edison Company, U..S. Council for
Automotive Research LLC, the U.S. Department of Energy.
And each of these participants further tap into fairly vast resources specific to their area of expertise.

You can read a summary of their work here:
https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2019/12/f69/GITT%20ISATT%20EVs%20at%20Scale%20Grid%20Summary%20Report%20FINAL%20Nov2019.pdf

We\'ll eagerly await your usual highly detailed and fact based analysis of their work. I\'m sure it contains manifold laws you will relish exposing.

What that summary fails to say ANYTHING about are brownouts and blackouts (I searched for it), which is the crisis facing us RIGHT NOW! Adding more electrical loads are just going to make this crisis worse. This report is just another example where they decided on the conclusion and wrote a piece of shit to back it up.

The main power provider in Florida claims 99.98% reliability, which I take to mean availability- it\'s there when you want it. There are a bunch of causes totally outside the control of the power company that can make the power go down. The power provider then needs to switch distribution around to maintain system stability- avoid things like an overload that cascades into a massive blackout that takes a real long time to fix. You are right about observing the relation between more grid infrastructure and vulnerability to failures. That\'s just the laws of chance, and since everything is so interconnected, what is perceived as a small local failure turning into a seemingly system wide shortfall makes people think it\'s a capacity problem.
https://www.fpl.com/reliability/power-disturbances/flickers.html

Western U.S. and the central plains states, do have a capacity problem. They\'re still learning the ins and outs of reliably integrating renewables into their grids. NERC has major heartburn with the inverter technology used. It\'s going to take a awhile for them to get it right.

A major challenge in the U.S. is that, with the exception of a few government owned utilities like the TVA, government can\'t order private enterprise to build excess capacity and transmission infrastructure.
 
F

Flyguy

Guest
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 1:12:38 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:00:31 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 7:14:47 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 11:02:16 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 12:51:23 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:38:16 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
Sloman is living in LA-LA Land. No, solar cells ARE NOT going to bridge the gap in electrical power demand growth.

One has to wonder why Flyguy thinks that.

Sloman has a child-like faith in renewables that doesn\'t match reality.

Flyguy has no connection with any kind of reality.

No, that would be YOU, SNIPPERMAN. The reality is that Europe has already experienced a near-total electrical grid blackout because of the dependence on renewables. Adding significantly more loads will make this inevitable.

Renewables aren\'t growing fast enough to even meet the growth in energy demand.
Renewables provided 826 billion kW.hrs in 2021 (in a total or 4.100 billion), up from 381 billion kW.hrs in 2008. Solar cells got a lot cheaper when China started producing cheap relatively high efficiency solar cells in tens time the volume that anybody had before

https://www.nrel.gov/news/program/2021/documenting-a-decade-of-cost-declines-for-pv-systems.html

Investments simply are not being made to meet future electricity demands, and this is WITHOUT the added loads that Lyin\' Biden and the rest of the Woke crowd want to throw into the mix. And the shortfall is not minor - it is HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS:
https://www.ebp-us.com/en/projects/failure-act-electric-infrastructure-investment-gaps-rapidly-changing-environment-2020

Somebody needs to invest even more in making them in much higher volume - only about 1% of global electricity production comes from solar cells, and they are quite a bit cheaper than every other source, so there is a huge market out there.
And Europe has discovered the folly of depending upon nondispatchable energy sources.
The folly is not investing in grid scale batteries when you start relaying on wind and solar for an appreciable part of your generation.
This hit Europe HARD last winter:
https://time.com/6124191/winter-europe-energy/
Read what you post. It\'s dated 28th November, 2021 1:16 PM EST before winter had actually hit. It was simple alarmism.

You might try READING the article as well as looking at the date. The lack of wind has already hit the UK, TWICE!
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/29/sse-says-low-wind-dry-conditions-hit-renewable-energy-generation.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/27/uk-summer-wind-drought-puts-green-revolution-into-reverse

The Woke crowd simply can\'t listen to reason. Like Sloman they think that it will all just, somehow, work out.

As if Flyguy could produce or comprehend a reasoned argument. He quotes an alarmist forecast from last November, and thinks that that reflects what actually happened.

Well, SNIPPERMAN, I am STILL waiting for you to make one. You have exactly the same plan for expanding electric generation and transmission as Lyin\' Biden does - NONE AT ALL!

Nobody is saying that it isn\'t going to take work to move the generation system to the point where it can rely on mainly renewable sources, and they\'ve got to be capable of supplying a a higher peak current, and storing a lot of it for a day or two, in a way the current system can\'t manage.

As I pointed out, there is a huge shortfall in the investment required to make this happen. Plus, the Woke crowd is throwing all sorts of permitting roadblocks in the way.

It helps that renewable electricity is quite a bit cheaper than power from any other sources - though Flyguy doesn\'t seem to have noticed this, even if the Australian generating industry won\'t invest in any other generating capacity because its too expensive - but it is going to take time.

Flyguy can\'t learn anything new and doesn\'t think than anybody else can do any better. He\'s clearly not \"woke\" and doesn\'t seem to have been awake for years now.

I can \"learn\" that there ARE NO plans in place to make this happen. If you know of any then CITE THEM.

There\'s no claim that it \"will all just somehow work out\". There is a claim that if we spend quite a lot of money on the right hardware, it will actually work out, but Flyguy is much too dim to have any clue about how much money or what kind of hardware.

Sorry, SNIPPERMAN, but I cited a reference above (unlike you) that makes this very clear.

He also thinks that a transition to electric vehicles will overload the electricity generating system, even though he couldn\'t look up the predictions of how much it would load the generating system, nor notice that the extra load for the US would be about ten years worth of the annual growth from 1950 to 2000, while electric cars are gong to take more than ten years to entirely take over the car market.

Hey SNIPPERMAN, I already did that calculation (again, unlike you). And our system is ALREADY overloaded without ANY new loads:
\"Ahead of summer 2022, federal officials have released several warnings about anticipated reliability risks and higher electricity prices compared to 2021.\"
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11943

\"Midcontinent ISO (MISO) faces a capacity shortfall in its North and Central areas, resulting
in high risk of energy emergencies during peak summer conditions\"
\"Extreme drought across much of Texas can produce weather conditions that are
favorable to prolonged, wide-area heat events and extreme peak electricity
demand.\"
https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_SRA_2022.pdf

And the USA and Europe aren\'t the only ones:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/australians-urged-save-electricity-ease-power-crunch-2022-06-16/
 
A

Anthony William Sloman

Guest
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:41:11 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 1:12:38 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:00:31 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 7:14:47 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 11:02:16 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 12:51:23 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:38:16 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
Sloman is living in LA-LA Land. No, solar cells ARE NOT going to bridge the gap in electrical power demand growth.

One has to wonder why Flyguy thinks that.

Sloman has a child-like faith in renewables that doesn\'t match reality.

Flyguy has no connection with any kind of reality.

No, that would be you Sloman.

Gnatguy does love his delusions.

> The reality is that Europe has already experienced a near-total electrical grid blackout because of the dependence on renewables.

You posted an alarmist link claiming that it might. When I was there in the UK and the Netherlands - in May and June this year, nobody was complaining that it had.
You are just as full of shit as ever.

> Adding significantly more loads will make this inevitable.

Rubbish.

> > > Renewables aren\'t growing fast enough to even meet the growth in energy demand.

You\'ve got to spend money to install the capacity you are going to need. Renewable energy supply doesn\'t grow at any kind of arbitrary rate that\'s easy to predict - it grows because people invest in installing more solar farms and wind turbines. More money means more power, and you aren\'t stuck with installing it in huge chunks - you can build up the capacity in lots of little increments, which is exactly what is happening.

Renewables provided 826 billion kW.hrs in 2021 (in a total or 4.100 billion), up from 381 billion kW.hrs in 2008. Solar cells got a lot cheaper when China started producing cheap relatively high efficiency solar cells in tens time the volume that anybody had before

https://www.nrel.gov/news/program/2021/documenting-a-decade-of-cost-declines-for-pv-systems.html

Investments simply are not being made to meet future electricity demands, and this is WITHOUT the added loads that Lyin\' Biden and the rest of the Woke crowd want to throw into the mix. And the shortfall is not minor - it is HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS:
https://www.ebp-us.com/en/projects/failure-act-electric-infrastructure-investment-gaps-rapidly-changing-environment-2020

They aren\'t being made as fast as the people who sell the infra-structure would like - they\'d like the government to give them even more money to spend, and they aren\'t likely to say that their industry is making more money than they\'d like.

Somebody needs to invest even more in making them in much higher volume - only about 1% of global electricity production comes from solar cells, and they are quite a bit cheaper than every other source, so there is a huge market out there.

And Europe has discovered the folly of depending upon nondispatchable energy sources.
The folly is not investing in grid scale batteries when you start relaying on wind and solar for an appreciable part of your generation.
This hit Europe HARD last winter:
https://time.com/6124191/winter-europe-energy/
Read what you post. It\'s dated 28th November, 2021 1:16 PM EST before winter had actually hit. It was simple alarmism.

You might try READING the article as well as looking at the date. The lack of wind has already hit the UK, TWICE!
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/29/sse-says-low-wind-dry-conditions-hit-renewable-energy-generation.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/27/uk-summer-wind-drought-puts-green-revolution-into-reverse

It happens, but not very often. It\'s not an an excuse to give up on renewable energy, which is remarkably cheap when the wind is blowing ant the sun is shining.

The Woke crowd simply can\'t listen to reason. Like Sloman they think that it will all just, somehow, work out.

As if Flyguy could produce or comprehend a reasoned argument. He quotes an alarmist forecast from last November, and thinks that that reflects what actually happened.

Well, Sloman, I am STILL waiting for you to make one.

Which is to say you imagine that you could process it or even recognise it as reasonable if you ran into it.

> You have exactly the same plan for expanding electric generation and transmission as Lyin\' Biden does - NONE AT ALL!

Since your capacity to understand any such plan is absolutely zero, it\'s no surprise that you can\'t recognise the plans that do exist.

Nobody is saying that it isn\'t going to take work to move the generation system to the point where it can rely on mainly renewable sources, and they\'ve got to be capable of supplying a a higher peak current, and storing a lot of it for a day or two, in a way the current system can\'t manage.

As I pointed out, there is a huge shortfall in the investment required to make this happen. Plus, the Woke crowd is throwing all sorts of permitting roadblocks in the way.

You didn\'t. You posted a link to a report from an industry group that makes money out of this kind of investment and would like to see even more of it..

It helps that renewable electricity is quite a bit cheaper than power from any other sources - though Flyguy doesn\'t seem to have noticed this, even if the Australian generating industry won\'t invest in any other generating capacity because its too expensive - but it is going to take time.

Flyguy can\'t learn anything new and doesn\'t think than anybody else can do any better. He\'s clearly not \"woke\" and doesn\'t seem to have been awake for years now.

I can \"learn\" that there ARE NO plans in place to make this happen. If you know of any then CITE THEM.

Why bother? You wouldn\'t be able to make sense of them if I did.

There\'s no claim that it \"will all just somehow work out\". There is a claim that if we spend quite a lot of money on the right hardware, it will actually work out, but Flyguy is much too dim to have any clue about how much money or what kind of hardware.

Sorry, Sloman, but I cited a reference above (unlike you) that makes this very clear.

Gnatguy can always read any document as supporting his preferred point of view. He can\'t understand what they actually say, but he can always misunderstand them in a way that he finds comforting.

He also thinks that a transition to electric vehicles will overload the electricity generating system, even though he couldn\'t look up the predictions of how much it would load the generating system, nor notice that the extra load for the US would be about ten years worth of the annual growth from 1950 to 2000, while electric cars are gong to take more than ten years to entirely take over the car market.

Hey Sloman, I already did that calculation (again, unlike you).

So why were you asking us to do it for you?

And our system is ALREADY overloaded without ANY new loads:
\"Ahead of summer 2022, federal officials have released several warnings about anticipated reliability risks and higher electricity prices compared to 2021.\"
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11943

\"Midcontinent ISO (MISO) faces a capacity shortfall in its North and Central areas, resulting
in high risk of energy emergencies during peak summer conditions\"
\"Extreme drought across much of Texas can produce weather conditions that are
favorable to prolonged, wide-area heat events and extreme peak electricity
demand.\"
https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_SRA_2022.pdf

And nobody wants to spend extra money on installing a bit more generating capacity than they won\'t be able to keep on exploiting 100% of the time.

And the USA and Europe aren\'t the only ones:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/australians-urged-save-electricity-ease-power-crunch-2022-06-16/

That was aging and unreliable coal-fired generating plants all being unreliable at once. Nothing to do with renewables - though if the previous Australian administration had subsdised renewable generation with the same enthusiasm as they\'d insisted that the ageing coal-fired plants weren\'t retired there might have been enough extra generating capacity spread around the country to carry the load.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
F

Flyguy

Guest
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 10:02:02 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:41:11 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 1:12:38 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:00:31 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 7:14:47 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 11:02:16 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 12:51:23 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:38:16 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
Sloman is living in LA-LA Land. No, solar cells ARE NOT going to bridge the gap in electrical power demand growth.

One has to wonder why Flyguy thinks that.

Sloman has a child-like faith in renewables that doesn\'t match reality.

Flyguy has no connection with any kind of reality.
No, that would be you Sloman.

Gnatguy does love his delusions.
The reality is that Europe has already experienced a near-total electrical grid blackout because of the dependence on renewables.
You posted an alarmist link claiming that it might. When I was there in the UK and the Netherlands - in May and June this year, nobody was complaining that it had.
You are just as full of shit as ever.
Adding significantly more loads will make this inevitable.
Rubbish.
Renewables aren\'t growing fast enough to even meet the growth in energy demand.
You\'ve got to spend money to install the capacity you are going to need. Renewable energy supply doesn\'t grow at any kind of arbitrary rate that\'s easy to predict - it grows because people invest in installing more solar farms and wind turbines. More money means more power, and you aren\'t stuck with installing it in huge chunks - you can build up the capacity in lots of little increments, which is exactly what is happening.
Renewables provided 826 billion kW.hrs in 2021 (in a total or 4.100 billion), up from 381 billion kW.hrs in 2008. Solar cells got a lot cheaper when China started producing cheap relatively high efficiency solar cells in tens time the volume that anybody had before

https://www.nrel.gov/news/program/2021/documenting-a-decade-of-cost-declines-for-pv-systems.html

Investments simply are not being made to meet future electricity demands, and this is WITHOUT the added loads that Lyin\' Biden and the rest of the Woke crowd want to throw into the mix. And the shortfall is not minor - it is HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS:
https://www.ebp-us.com/en/projects/failure-act-electric-infrastructure-investment-gaps-rapidly-changing-environment-2020
They aren\'t being made as fast as the people who sell the infra-structure would like - they\'d like the government to give them even more money to spend, and they aren\'t likely to say that their industry is making more money than they\'d like.
Somebody needs to invest even more in making them in much higher volume - only about 1% of global electricity production comes from solar cells, and they are quite a bit cheaper than every other source, so there is a huge market out there.

And Europe has discovered the folly of depending upon nondispatchable energy sources.
The folly is not investing in grid scale batteries when you start relaying on wind and solar for an appreciable part of your generation.
This hit Europe HARD last winter:
https://time.com/6124191/winter-europe-energy/
Read what you post. It\'s dated 28th November, 2021 1:16 PM EST before winter had actually hit. It was simple alarmism.

You might try READING the article as well as looking at the date. The lack of wind has already hit the UK, TWICE!
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/29/sse-says-low-wind-dry-conditions-hit-renewable-energy-generation.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/27/uk-summer-wind-drought-puts-green-revolution-into-reverse
It happens, but not very often. It\'s not an an excuse to give up on renewable energy, which is remarkably cheap when the wind is blowing ant the sun is shining.

CONGRATULATIONS! You finally ADMIT that energy crises ARE happening!! And they will happen more frequently as we continue to put loads onto the electrical grid at a faster rate than we are adding generation and transmission capacity.

The Woke crowd simply can\'t listen to reason. Like Sloman they think that it will all just, somehow, work out.

As if Flyguy could produce or comprehend a reasoned argument. He quotes an alarmist forecast from last November, and thinks that that reflects what actually happened.

Well, Sloman, I am STILL waiting for you to make one.

Which is to say you imagine that you could process it or even recognise it as reasonable if you ran into it.

Lame excuse for not presenting one. The truth is that you DON\'T have a plan..

You have exactly the same plan for expanding electric generation and transmission as Lyin\' Biden does - NONE AT ALL!
Since your capacity to understand any such plan is absolutely zero, it\'s no surprise that you can\'t recognise the plans that do exist.

So WHY don\'t you present one? You can\'t is the answer.

Nobody is saying that it isn\'t going to take work to move the generation system to the point where it can rely on mainly renewable sources, and they\'ve got to be capable of supplying a a higher peak current, and storing a lot of it for a day or two, in a way the current system can\'t manage.

As I pointed out, there is a huge shortfall in the investment required to make this happen. Plus, the Woke crowd is throwing all sorts of permitting roadblocks in the way.
You didn\'t. You posted a link to a report from an industry group that makes money out of this kind of investment and would like to see even more of it.

False equivalency. By this logic, ANY professional group\'s opinion will be rejected by you.

It helps that renewable electricity is quite a bit cheaper than power from any other sources - though Flyguy doesn\'t seem to have noticed this, even if the Australian generating industry won\'t invest in any other generating capacity because its too expensive - but it is going to take time.

Flyguy can\'t learn anything new and doesn\'t think than anybody else can do any better. He\'s clearly not \"woke\" and doesn\'t seem to have been awake for years now.

I can \"learn\" that there ARE NO plans in place to make this happen. If you know of any then CITE THEM.
Why bother? You wouldn\'t be able to make sense of them if I did.
There\'s no claim that it \"will all just somehow work out\". There is a claim that if we spend quite a lot of money on the right hardware, it will actually work out, but Flyguy is much too dim to have any clue about how much money or what kind of hardware.

Sorry, Sloman, but I cited a reference above (unlike you) that makes this very clear.

Gnatguy can always read any document as supporting his preferred point of view. He can\'t understand what they actually say, but he can always misunderstand them in a way that he finds comforting.

More of SNIPPERMAN\'s demented ramblings that make no sense whatsoever.

He also thinks that a transition to electric vehicles will overload the electricity generating system, even though he couldn\'t look up the predictions of how much it would load the generating system, nor notice that the extra load for the US would be about ten years worth of the annual growth from 1950 to 2000, while electric cars are gong to take more than ten years to entirely take over the car market.

Hey Sloman, I already did that calculation (again, unlike you).

So why were you asking us to do it for you?

To get you to commit to an actual calculation, which you DID NOT DO! If you did do it, you would see the extent of the problem facing us. And you can\'t hardly deny your OWN NUMBERS, and you don\'t find ANY fault with mine!!

And our system is ALREADY overloaded without ANY new loads:
\"Ahead of summer 2022, federal officials have released several warnings about anticipated reliability risks and higher electricity prices compared to 2021.\"
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11943

\"Midcontinent ISO (MISO) faces a capacity shortfall in its North and Central areas, resulting
in high risk of energy emergencies during peak summer conditions\"
\"Extreme drought across much of Texas can produce weather conditions that are
favorable to prolonged, wide-area heat events and extreme peak electricity
demand.\"
https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_SRA_2022.pdf
And nobody wants to spend extra money on installing a bit more generating capacity than they won\'t be able to keep on exploiting 100% of the time.

Which is what you HAVE to do with renewables due to their unreliability. People WILL NOT tolerate an unreliable power supply, even YOU!

And the USA and Europe aren\'t the only ones:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/australians-urged-save-electricity-ease-power-crunch-2022-06-16/
That was aging and unreliable coal-fired generating plants all being unreliable at once. Nothing to do with renewables - though if the previous Australian administration had subsdised renewable generation with the same enthusiasm as they\'d insisted that the ageing coal-fired plants weren\'t retired there might have been enough extra generating capacity spread around the country to carry the load.

Hey SNIPPERMAN, it is ALL OF THE ABOVE! The Woke crowd wants to replace these aging plants with an even MORE unreliable source: renewables. And there IS NO PLAN to do even that.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
A

Anthony William Sloman

Guest
On Tuesday, August 2, 2022 at 4:28:48 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 10:02:02 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:41:11 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 1:12:38 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:00:31 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 7:14:47 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 11:02:16 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 12:51:23 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:38:16 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
Sloman is living in LA-LA Land. No, solar cells ARE NOT going to bridge the gap in electrical power demand growth.

One has to wonder why Flyguy thinks that.

Sloman has a child-like faith in renewables that doesn\'t match reality.

Flyguy has no connection with any kind of reality.

No, that would be you Sloman.

Gnatguy does love his delusions.

The reality is that Europe has already experienced a near-total electrical grid blackout because of the dependence on renewables.

You posted an alarmist link claiming that it might. When I was there in the UK and the Netherlands - in May and June this year, nobody was complaining that it had.
You are just as full of shit as ever.

Adding significantly more loads will make this inevitable.

Rubbish.

Renewables aren\'t growing fast enough to even meet the growth in energy demand.

You\'ve got to spend money to install the capacity you are going to need.. Renewable energy supply doesn\'t grow at any kind of arbitrary rate that\'s easy to predict - it grows because people invest in installing more solar farms and wind turbines. More money means more power, and you aren\'t stuck with installing it in huge chunks - you can build up the capacity in lots of little increments, which is exactly what is happening.

Renewables provided 826 billion kW.hrs in 2021 (in a total or 4.100 billion), up from 381 billion kW.hrs in 2008. Solar cells got a lot cheaper when China started producing cheap relatively high efficiency solar cells in tens time the volume that anybody had before

https://www.nrel.gov/news/program/2021/documenting-a-decade-of-cost-declines-for-pv-systems.html

Investments simply are not being made to meet future electricity demands, and this is WITHOUT the added loads that Lyin\' Biden and the rest of the Woke crowd want to throw into the mix. And the shortfall is not minor - it is HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS:
https://www.ebp-us.com/en/projects/failure-act-electric-infrastructure-investment-gaps-rapidly-changing-environment-2020

They aren\'t being made as fast as the people who sell the infra-structure would like - they\'d like the government to give them even more money to spend, and they aren\'t likely to say that their industry is making more money than they\'d like.

Somebody needs to invest even more in making them in much higher volume - only about 1% of global electricity production comes from solar cells, and they are quite a bit cheaper than every other source, so there is a huge market out there.

And Europe has discovered the folly of depending upon nondispatchable energy sources.

The folly is not investing in grid scale batteries when you start relaying on wind and solar for an appreciable part of your generation.
This hit Europe HARD last winter:
https://time.com/6124191/winter-europe-energy/
Read what you post. It\'s dated 28th November, 2021 1:16 PM EST before winter had actually hit. It was simple alarmism.

You might try READING the article as well as looking at the date. The lack of wind has already hit the UK, TWICE!
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/29/sse-says-low-wind-dry-conditions-hit-renewable-energy-generation.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/27/uk-summer-wind-drought-puts-green-revolution-into-reverse

It happens, but not very often. It\'s not an an excuse to give up on renewable energy, which is remarkably cheap when the wind is blowing ant the sun is shining.

CONGRATULATIONS! You finally ADMIT that energy crises ARE happening!!

It wasn\'t any kind of \"energy crisis\". It was just a brief and predictable occasional local shortfall in supply. Europe has transnational high-voltage links to shoip power from areas that still have power to areas that have that kind short term problem. It takes an idiot like you to promote it in a \"crisis\".

> And they will happen more frequently as we continue to put loads onto the electrical grid at a faster rate than we are adding generation and transmission capacity.

Happily, the people who plan the expansion of the grid pay attention to the way the market can be expected to expand. Clowns like you may apply for that kind of job, but they don\'t get hired to do it. The US grid supplied some 800 billion kilowatt hours in 950 and was supplying some 4,000 billion in 2000, when industry started getting more efficient, so the market stopped expanding - at least for a while. The switch from gasoline-power top electric cars will call for another 1200 billion kilowatt hours of capacity over the next decade or so, and there will be entrepreneurs out there investing in being able to supply it (probably from solar farms).

And there will be clowns like you telling us that it couldn\'t possible happen, while your pension fund will be investing in making it happenm

The Woke crowd simply can\'t listen to reason. Like Sloman they think that it will all just, somehow, work out.

As if Flyguy could produce or comprehend a reasoned argument. He quotes an alarmist forecast from last November, and thinks that that reflects what actually happened.

Well, Sloman, I am STILL waiting for you to make one.

Which is to say you imagine that you could process it or even recognise it as reasonable if you ran into it.

Lame excuse for not presenting one. The truth is that you DON\'T have a plan.

Of course I don\'t. I invest in companies that do - they do exist. Your pension fund will too, even if you haven\'t got a clue about it.

You have exactly the same plan for expanding electric generation and transmission as Lyin\' Biden does - NONE AT ALL!

Since your capacity to understand any such plan is absolutely zero, it\'s no surprise that you can\'t recognise the plans that do exist.

So WHY don\'t you present one? You can\'t is the answer.

If I had billions to invest, I would. As it is, I invest in companies that do. You want to a prospectus? Search the web yourself.

Nobody is saying that it isn\'t going to take work to move the generation system to the point where it can rely on mainly renewable sources, and they\'ve got to be capable of supplying a a higher peak current, and storing a lot of it for a day or two, in a way the current system can\'t manage.

As I pointed out, there is a huge shortfall in the investment required to make this happen. Plus, the Woke crowd is throwing all sorts of permitting roadblocks in the way.

You didn\'t. You posted a link to a report from an industry group that makes money out of this kind of investment and would like to see even more of it.

False equivalency. By this logic, ANY professional group\'s opinion will be rejected by you.

They weren\'t actually talking a bout any \"huge shortfall\" - they\'d just like to see more inverstment. As usual you were misrepresenting what they said to fit with you bizarre delusions.

It helps that renewable electricity is quite a bit cheaper than power from any other sources - though Flyguy doesn\'t seem to have noticed this, even if the Australian generating industry won\'t invest in any other generating capacity because its too expensive - but it is going to take time.

Flyguy can\'t learn anything new and doesn\'t think than anybody else can do any better. He\'s clearly not \"woke\" and doesn\'t seem to have been awake for years now.

I can \"learn\" that there ARE NO plans in place to make this happen. If you know of any then CITE THEM.

Of course you can \"learn\" this. You can\'t understand the plans that do exist, and it would be a complete waste of time to provide links to site that you couldn\'t comprehend, and would write off for some bogus reason or other.

Why bother? You wouldn\'t be able to make sense of them if I did.

There\'s no claim that it \"will all just somehow work out\". There is a claim that if we spend quite a lot of money on the right hardware, it will actually work out, but Flyguy is much too dim to have any clue about how much money or what kind of hardware.

Sorry, Sloman, but I cited a reference above (unlike you) that makes this very clear.

Gnatguy can always read any document as supporting his preferred point of view. He can\'t understand what they actually say, but he can always misunderstand them in a way that he finds comforting.

More of Sloman\'s demented ramblings that make no sense whatsoever.

None so blind as those that do not wish to see. Not that Gnatguy can comprehend much at the best of times.

He also thinks that a transition to electric vehicles will overload the electricity generating system, even though he couldn\'t look up the predictions of how much it would load the generating system, nor notice that the extra load for the US would be about ten years worth of the annual growth from 1950 to 2000, while electric cars are gong to take more than ten years to entirely take over the car market.

Hey Sloman, I already did that calculation (again, unlike you).

So why were you asking us to do it for you?

To get you to commit to an actual calculation, which you DID NOT DO! If you did do it, you would see the extent of the problem facing us. And you can\'t hardly deny your OWN NUMBERS, and you don\'t find ANY fault with mine!!

Since the result of that calculation has been posted here years ago, and are widely available on the web, what you were actually doing was just reminding us that you are the same pig-ignorant idiot that you have always been.

And our system is ALREADY overloaded without ANY new loads:
\"Ahead of summer 2022, federal officials have released several warnings about anticipated reliability risks and higher electricity prices compared to 2021.\"
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11943

\"Midcontinent ISO (MISO) faces a capacity shortfall in its North and Central areas, resulting
in high risk of energy emergencies during peak summer conditions\"
\"Extreme drought across much of Texas can produce weather conditions that are
favorable to prolonged, wide-area heat events and extreme peak electricity
demand.\"
https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_SRA_2022.pdf

And nobody wants to spend extra money on installing a bit more generating capacity than they won\'t be able to keep on exploiting 100% of the time.

Which is what you HAVE to do with renewables due to their unreliability. People WILL NOT tolerate an unreliable power supply, even YOU!

Solar power is quite a lot cheaper than the power generation schemes that you are used to. It\'s perfectly reliable - the sun keeps on coming up every day - but you do have to have grid scale batteries, pumped storage and long distance links to let you average out from day to night and between cloudy days here and there.

Turning a less than perfectly reliable generation system into a reliable grid supply is something that we have been doing for more than a century now. It takes more engineering to cope day-to-night fluctuations than it did to cope with coal-fired generators that broke down, but it\'s just engineering, not miracle working.

And the USA and Europe aren\'t the only ones:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/australians-urged-save-electricity-ease-power-crunch-2022-06-16/

That was aging and unreliable coal-fired generating plants all being unreliable at once. Nothing to do with renewables - though if the previous Australian administration had subsdised renewable generation with the same enthusiasm as they\'d insisted that the ageing coal-fired plants weren\'t retired there might have been enough extra generating capacity spread around the country to carry the load.

Hey Sloman, it is ALL OF THE ABOVE! The Woke crowd wants to replace these aging plants with an even MORE unreliable source: renewables.

They aren\'t unreliable in the same way, and they resume generating a lot more reliably and predictably than wonky old coal-fired plants

> And there IS NO PLAN to do even that.

https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/snowy-20/about/

The various Australian electricity generating companies are all investing in more wind turbine farms and solar farms. Presumably there\'s some kind of plan involved, but it would be commercial in confidence, and you wouldn\'t be able to understand it if I could find a link to one of them.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
W

whit3rd

Guest
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 11:28:48 AM UTC-7, Flyguy wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 10:02:02 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:

And nobody wants to spend extra money on installing a bit more generating capacity than they won\'t be able to keep on exploiting 100% of the time.
Which is what you HAVE to do with renewables due to their unreliability. People WILL NOT tolerate an unreliable power supply, even YOU!

Huh? Our ancestors were hunter-gatherers, omnivores, who relied on... dozens of unreliable food
sources. A statistical near-certainty of sufficency is all we humans will ever get, so learn to
live with it. Everyone does.
 
F

Flyguy

Guest
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 7:23:17 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Tuesday, August 2, 2022 at 4:28:48 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 10:02:02 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:41:11 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 1:12:38 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:00:31 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 7:14:47 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 11:02:16 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 12:51:23 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:38:16 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
Sloman is living in LA-LA Land. No, solar cells ARE NOT going to bridge the gap in electrical power demand growth.

One has to wonder why Flyguy thinks that.

Sloman has a child-like faith in renewables that doesn\'t match reality.

Flyguy has no connection with any kind of reality.

No, that would be you Sloman.

Gnatguy does love his delusions.

The reality is that Europe has already experienced a near-total electrical grid blackout because of the dependence on renewables.

You posted an alarmist link claiming that it might. When I was there in the UK and the Netherlands - in May and June this year, nobody was complaining that it had.
You are just as full of shit as ever.

Adding significantly more loads will make this inevitable.

Rubbish.

Renewables aren\'t growing fast enough to even meet the growth in energy demand.

You\'ve got to spend money to install the capacity you are going to need. Renewable energy supply doesn\'t grow at any kind of arbitrary rate that\'s easy to predict - it grows because people invest in installing more solar farms and wind turbines. More money means more power, and you aren\'t stuck with installing it in huge chunks - you can build up the capacity in lots of little increments, which is exactly what is happening.

Renewables provided 826 billion kW.hrs in 2021 (in a total or 4.100 billion), up from 381 billion kW.hrs in 2008. Solar cells got a lot cheaper when China started producing cheap relatively high efficiency solar cells in tens time the volume that anybody had before

https://www.nrel.gov/news/program/2021/documenting-a-decade-of-cost-declines-for-pv-systems.html

Investments simply are not being made to meet future electricity demands, and this is WITHOUT the added loads that Lyin\' Biden and the rest of the Woke crowd want to throw into the mix. And the shortfall is not minor - it is HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS:
https://www.ebp-us.com/en/projects/failure-act-electric-infrastructure-investment-gaps-rapidly-changing-environment-2020

They aren\'t being made as fast as the people who sell the infra-structure would like - they\'d like the government to give them even more money to spend, and they aren\'t likely to say that their industry is making more money than they\'d like.

Somebody needs to invest even more in making them in much higher volume - only about 1% of global electricity production comes from solar cells, and they are quite a bit cheaper than every other source, so there is a huge market out there.

And Europe has discovered the folly of depending upon nondispatchable energy sources.

The folly is not investing in grid scale batteries when you start relaying on wind and solar for an appreciable part of your generation.
This hit Europe HARD last winter:
https://time.com/6124191/winter-europe-energy/
Read what you post. It\'s dated 28th November, 2021 1:16 PM EST before winter had actually hit. It was simple alarmism.

You might try READING the article as well as looking at the date. The lack of wind has already hit the UK, TWICE!
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/29/sse-says-low-wind-dry-conditions-hit-renewable-energy-generation.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/27/uk-summer-wind-drought-puts-green-revolution-into-reverse

It happens, but not very often. It\'s not an an excuse to give up on renewable energy, which is remarkably cheap when the wind is blowing ant the sun is shining.

CONGRATULATIONS! You finally ADMIT that energy crises ARE happening!!
It wasn\'t any kind of \"energy crisis\". It was just a brief and predictable occasional local shortfall in supply. Europe has transnational high-voltage links to shoip power from areas that still have power to areas that have that kind short term problem. It takes an idiot like you to promote it in a \"crisis\".
And they will happen more frequently as we continue to put loads onto the electrical grid at a faster rate than we are adding generation and transmission capacity.
Happily, the people who plan the expansion of the grid pay attention to the way the market can be expected to expand. Clowns like you may apply for that kind of job, but they don\'t get hired to do it. The US grid supplied some 800 billion kilowatt hours in 950 and was supplying some 4,000 billion in 2000, when industry started getting more efficient, so the market stopped expanding - at least for a while. The switch from gasoline-power top electric cars will call for another 1200 billion kilowatt hours of capacity over the next decade or so, and there will be entrepreneurs out there investing in being able to supply it (probably from solar farms).

Our government is ALREADY warning of wide-spread blackouts because of this issue, but dullards such as yourself are ignoring them - until YOU are impacted.

And there will be clowns like you telling us that it couldn\'t possible happen, while your pension fund will be investing in making it happenm
The Woke crowd simply can\'t listen to reason. Like Sloman they think that it will all just, somehow, work out.

As if Flyguy could produce or comprehend a reasoned argument. He quotes an alarmist forecast from last November, and thinks that that reflects what actually happened.

Well, Sloman, I am STILL waiting for you to make one.

Which is to say you imagine that you could process it or even recognise it as reasonable if you ran into it.

Lame excuse for not presenting one. The truth is that you DON\'T have a plan.
Of course I don\'t. I invest in companies that do - they do exist. Your pension fund will too, even if you haven\'t got a clue about it.
You have exactly the same plan for expanding electric generation and transmission as Lyin\' Biden does - NONE AT ALL!

Since your capacity to understand any such plan is absolutely zero, it\'s no surprise that you can\'t recognise the plans that do exist.

So WHY don\'t you present one? You can\'t is the answer.
If I had billions to invest, I would. As it is, I invest in companies that do. You want to a prospectus? Search the web yourself.
Nobody is saying that it isn\'t going to take work to move the generation system to the point where it can rely on mainly renewable sources, and they\'ve got to be capable of supplying a a higher peak current, and storing a lot of it for a day or two, in a way the current system can\'t manage..

As I pointed out, there is a huge shortfall in the investment required to make this happen. Plus, the Woke crowd is throwing all sorts of permitting roadblocks in the way.

You didn\'t. You posted a link to a report from an industry group that makes money out of this kind of investment and would like to see even more of it.

False equivalency. By this logic, ANY professional group\'s opinion will be rejected by you.
They weren\'t actually talking a bout any \"huge shortfall\" - they\'d just like to see more inverstment. As usual you were misrepresenting what they said to fit with you bizarre delusions.
It helps that renewable electricity is quite a bit cheaper than power from any other sources - though Flyguy doesn\'t seem to have noticed this, even if the Australian generating industry won\'t invest in any other generating capacity because its too expensive - but it is going to take time.

Flyguy can\'t learn anything new and doesn\'t think than anybody else can do any better. He\'s clearly not \"woke\" and doesn\'t seem to have been awake for years now.

I can \"learn\" that there ARE NO plans in place to make this happen. If you know of any then CITE THEM.
Of course you can \"learn\" this. You can\'t understand the plans that do exist, and it would be a complete waste of time to provide links to site that you couldn\'t comprehend, and would write off for some bogus reason or other.

No, you don\'t provide them because you DON\'T HAVE THEM!

Why bother? You wouldn\'t be able to make sense of them if I did.

There\'s no claim that it \"will all just somehow work out\". There is a claim that if we spend quite a lot of money on the right hardware, it will actually work out, but Flyguy is much too dim to have any clue about how much money or what kind of hardware.

Sorry, Sloman, but I cited a reference above (unlike you) that makes this very clear.

Gnatguy can always read any document as supporting his preferred point of view. He can\'t understand what they actually say, but he can always misunderstand them in a way that he finds comforting.

More of Sloman\'s demented ramblings that make no sense whatsoever.

None so blind as those that do not wish to see. Not that Gnatguy can comprehend much at the best of times.

Yet more demented ramblings filled with invective and name calling by SNIPPERMAN. So sad...

He also thinks that a transition to electric vehicles will overload the electricity generating system, even though he couldn\'t look up the predictions of how much it would load the generating system, nor notice that the extra load for the US would be about ten years worth of the annual growth from 1950 to 2000, while electric cars are gong to take more than ten years to entirely take over the car market.

Hey Sloman, I already did that calculation (again, unlike you).

So why were you asking us to do it for you?

To get you to commit to an actual calculation, which you DID NOT DO! If you did do it, you would see the extent of the problem facing us. And you can\'t hardly deny your OWN NUMBERS, and you don\'t find ANY fault with mine!!
Since the result of that calculation has been posted here years ago, and are widely available on the web, what you were actually doing was just reminding us that you are the same pig-ignorant idiot that you have always been..
And our system is ALREADY overloaded without ANY new loads:
\"Ahead of summer 2022, federal officials have released several warnings about anticipated reliability risks and higher electricity prices compared to 2021.\"
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11943

\"Midcontinent ISO (MISO) faces a capacity shortfall in its North and Central areas, resulting
in high risk of energy emergencies during peak summer conditions\"
\"Extreme drought across much of Texas can produce weather conditions that are
favorable to prolonged, wide-area heat events and extreme peak electricity
demand.\"
https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_SRA_2022.pdf

And nobody wants to spend extra money on installing a bit more generating capacity than they won\'t be able to keep on exploiting 100% of the time.

Which is what you HAVE to do with renewables due to their unreliability.. People WILL NOT tolerate an unreliable power supply, even YOU!
Solar power is quite a lot cheaper than the power generation schemes that you are used to. It\'s perfectly reliable - the sun keeps on coming up every day - but you do have to have grid scale batteries, pumped storage and long distance links to let you average out from day to night and between cloudy days here and there.

LOL! So do the CLOUDS!!

Turning a less than perfectly reliable generation system into a reliable grid supply is something that we have been doing for more than a century now. It takes more engineering to cope day-to-night fluctuations than it did to cope with coal-fired generators that broke down, but it\'s just engineering, not miracle working.
And the USA and Europe aren\'t the only ones:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/australians-urged-save-electricity-ease-power-crunch-2022-06-16/

That was aging and unreliable coal-fired generating plants all being unreliable at once. Nothing to do with renewables - though if the previous Australian administration had subsdised renewable generation with the same enthusiasm as they\'d insisted that the ageing coal-fired plants weren\'t retired there might have been enough extra generating capacity spread around the country to carry the load.

Hey Sloman, it is ALL OF THE ABOVE! The Woke crowd wants to replace these aging plants with an even MORE unreliable source: renewables.

They aren\'t unreliable in the same way, and they resume generating a lot more reliably and predictably than wonky old coal-fired plants
And there IS NO PLAN to do even that.
https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/snowy-20/about/

Pumped storage has been around for decades, SNIPPERMAN, and is in use today in the US. But it is a very limited solution because of the huge landmass required to implement it. This project will work because it doesn\'t involve flooding any new land.

The various Australian electricity generating companies are all investing in more wind turbine farms and solar farms. Presumably there\'s some kind of plan involved, but it would be commercial in confidence, and you wouldn\'t be able to understand it if I could find a link to one of them.

As they are here, but there is a big problem (https://www.wsj.com/articles/electricity-shortage-warnings-grow-across-u-s-11652002380):

\"The risk of outages resulting from supply constraints comes amid other challenges straining the reliability of the grid. Large, sustained outages have occurred with greater frequency over the past two decades, in part because the grid has become more vulnerable to failure with age and an uptick in severe weather events exacerbated by climate change. A push to electrify home heating and cooking, and the expected growth of electric vehicles, may increase power demand in coming years, putting further pressure on the system.\"

This is the crux of the problem I was referring to at the outset of this thread. Europe almost had a catastrophic blackout on Jan 8, 2021 (https://stopthesethings.com/2021/02/02/european-emergency-chaotic-wind-solar-collapses-threaten-entire-europe-wide-blackout/):

\"On 8 January 2021, the European electricity grid only just missed a large-scale collapse. Around 13:04 p.m. there was a sharp drop in frequency that could have paralysed Europe.

The cause was apparently a power failure in Romania. According to the Austrian blackout expert Herbert Saurugg, it was the second most serious major incident in the European network to date. According to the ENTSO-E classification, the third of four warning levels was achieved (Emergency – Deteriorated situation, including a network split at a large scale. Higher risk for neighboring systems. Security principles are not fulfilled. Global security is endangered).\"

Businesses and many homeowners are WELL AWARE of this situation and are pro-actively installing backup power generation at considerable expense (https://www.wsj.com/articles/amid-power-outages-americans-buying-generators-solar-plus-battery-microgrids-11645207261?mod=article_inline):

\"As the American electric grid becomes less dependable, a growing number of businesses and homeowners are buying their own power systems to protect themselves from being left in the dark.

Twenty years ago, only 0.57% of U.S. homes worth $150,000 or more had installed backup generators, mainly along hurricane-prone coastlines, according to backup-power provider Generac Holdings Inc. GNRC -5.52%▼ Now the number is 5.75%, a 10-fold increase.

Many entrepreneurs now consider secondary power systems to be a necessary cost of doing business. Steve Peterson, who owns Hungry Howie’s Pizza franchises in Michigan, learned their value in 2003, when a massive blackout knocked out power to much of the Midwest and Northeast. Mr. Peterson had invested in backup generation—and said he had lines of people who wanted a hot meal stretching 200 to 300 feet out the door.\"

This, however, is an option only for the wealthiest. Generac has opened sales offices in California, a state where they had no operation before because of how power reliability there has deteriorated (https://www.ocregister.com/2019/11/26/rich-californians-shelling-out-30000-to-ease-blackout-pain/):

\"The trend isn’t unique to California. With climate change colliding with an aging grid, residents of areas from snowy New England to the hurricane-threatened South face more disruptions to power. But with costs for whole-house generators or solar and battery packages running tens of thousands of dollars, the demand for backup systems underscores a stark reality: Wealthy people will be able to endure outages while the poor are left in the dark.\"
 
A

Anthony William Sloman

Guest
On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 3:55:30 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 7:23:17 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Tuesday, August 2, 2022 at 4:28:48 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 10:02:02 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:41:11 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 1:12:38 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:00:31 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 7:14:47 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee..org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 11:02:16 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 12:51:23 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:38:16 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:

<snip>

Which is what you HAVE to do with renewables due to their unreliability. People WILL NOT tolerate an unreliable power supply, even YOU!

Solar power is quite a lot cheaper than the power generation schemes that you are used to. It\'s perfectly reliable - the sun keeps on coming up every day - but you do have to have grid scale batteries, pumped storage and long distance links to let you average out from day to night and between cloudy days here and there.

LOL! So do the CLOUDS!!

I wonder what Gnatguy thought that he meant by that.

<snip>

The various Australian electricity generating companies are all investing in more wind turbine farms and solar farms. Presumably there\'s some kind of plan involved, but it would be commercial in confidence, and you wouldn\'t be able to understand it if I could find a link to one of them.

As they are here, but there is a big problem (https://www.wsj.com/articles/electricity-shortage-warnings-grow-across-u-s-11652002380):

\"The risk of outages resulting from supply constraints comes amid other challenges straining the reliability of the grid. Large, sustained outages have occurred with greater frequency over the past two decades, in part because the grid has become more vulnerable to failure with age and an uptick in severe weather events exacerbated by climate change. A push to electrify home heating and cooking, and the expected growth of electric vehicles, may increase power demand in coming years, putting further pressure on the system.\"

This is the crux of the problem I was referring to at the outset of this thread. Europe almost had a catastrophic blackout on Jan 8, 2021 (https://stopthesethings.com/2021/02/02/european-emergency-chaotic-wind-solar-collapses-threaten-entire-europe-wide-blackout/):

But didn\'t.

The people who sell the power into the retail market want to put pressure on the people who supply the power to invest in excess generating capacity. The people who sell the power don\'t have to find the capital to pay the excess capacity, or the money to keep it maintained when it isn\'t generating power that anybody can sell. Spare generating capacity is great when you need it, and expensive when you don\'t, which is most of the time.

You see a particular sort of propaganda and take it seriously, because you are too dim to understand what\'s going on.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
F

Flyguy

Guest
On Wednesday, August 3, 2022 at 6:54:12 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 3:55:30 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 7:23:17 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Tuesday, August 2, 2022 at 4:28:48 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 10:02:02 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:41:11 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 1:12:38 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:00:31 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 7:14:47 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 11:02:16 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 12:51:23 AM UTC-7, bill.....@ieee.org wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:38:16 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
snip
Which is what you HAVE to do with renewables due to their unreliability. People WILL NOT tolerate an unreliable power supply, even YOU!

Solar power is quite a lot cheaper than the power generation schemes that you are used to. It\'s perfectly reliable - the sun keeps on coming up every day - but you do have to have grid scale batteries, pumped storage and long distance links to let you average out from day to night and between cloudy days here and there.

LOL! So do the CLOUDS!!
I wonder what Gnatguy thought that he meant by that.

snip
The various Australian electricity generating companies are all investing in more wind turbine farms and solar farms. Presumably there\'s some kind of plan involved, but it would be commercial in confidence, and you wouldn\'t be able to understand it if I could find a link to one of them.

As they are here, but there is a big problem (https://www.wsj.com/articles/electricity-shortage-warnings-grow-across-u-s-11652002380):

\"The risk of outages resulting from supply constraints comes amid other challenges straining the reliability of the grid. Large, sustained outages have occurred with greater frequency over the past two decades, in part because the grid has become more vulnerable to failure with age and an uptick in severe weather events exacerbated by climate change. A push to electrify home heating and cooking, and the expected growth of electric vehicles, may increase power demand in coming years, putting further pressure on the system.\"

This is the crux of the problem I was referring to at the outset of this thread. Europe almost had a catastrophic blackout on Jan 8, 2021 (https://stopthesethings.com/2021/02/02/european-emergency-chaotic-wind-solar-collapses-threaten-entire-europe-wide-blackout/):
But didn\'t.

The people who sell the power into the retail market want to put pressure on the people who supply the power to invest in excess generating capacity.. The people who sell the power don\'t have to find the capital to pay the excess capacity, or the money to keep it maintained when it isn\'t generating power that anybody can sell. Spare generating capacity is great when you need it, and expensive when you don\'t, which is most of the time.

You see a particular sort of propaganda and take it seriously, because you are too dim to understand what\'s going on.

I will give SNIPPERMAN one last chance to put up or shut about Lyin\' Biden\'s federal plan to modernize the electrical grid and create more generation capacity before I explain the simple reason he can\'t. Hint: he hasn\'t produced it because it DOESN\'T EXIST!
 
A

Anthony William Sloman

Guest
On Friday, August 5, 2022 at 9:36:57 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Wednesday, August 3, 2022 at 6:54:12 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 3:55:30 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 7:23:17 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Tuesday, August 2, 2022 at 4:28:48 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 10:02:02 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:41:11 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 1:12:38 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:00:31 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 7:14:47 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 11:02:16 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 12:51:23 AM UTC-7, bill.....@ieee.org wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:38:16 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
snip
Which is what you HAVE to do with renewables due to their unreliability. People WILL NOT tolerate an unreliable power supply, even YOU!

Solar power is quite a lot cheaper than the power generation schemes that you are used to. It\'s perfectly reliable - the sun keeps on coming up every day - but you do have to have grid scale batteries, pumped storage and long distance links to let you average out from day to night and between cloudy days here and there.

LOL! So do the CLOUDS!!

I wonder what Gnatguy thought that he meant by that.

snip

The various Australian electricity generating companies are all investing in more wind turbine farms and solar farms. Presumably there\'s some kind of plan involved, but it would be commercial in confidence, and you wouldn\'t be able to understand it if I could find a link to one of them.

As they are here, but there is a big problem (https://www.wsj.com/articles/electricity-shortage-warnings-grow-across-u-s-11652002380):

\"The risk of outages resulting from supply constraints comes amid other challenges straining the reliability of the grid. Large, sustained outages have occurred with greater frequency over the past two decades, in part because the grid has become more vulnerable to failure with age and an uptick in severe weather events exacerbated by climate change. A push to electrify home heating and cooking, and the expected growth of electric vehicles, may increase power demand in coming years, putting further pressure on the system.\"

This is the crux of the problem I was referring to at the outset of this thread. Europe almost had a catastrophic blackout on Jan 8, 2021 (https://stopthesethings.com/2021/02/02/european-emergency-chaotic-wind-solar-collapses-threaten-entire-europe-wide-blackout/):
But didn\'t.

The people who sell the power into the retail market want to put pressure on the people who supply the power to invest in excess generating capacity. The people who sell the power don\'t have to find the capital to pay the excess capacity, or the money to keep it maintained when it isn\'t generating power that anybody can sell. Spare generating capacity is great when you need it, and expensive when you don\'t, which is most of the time.

You see a particular sort of propaganda and take it seriously, because you are too dim to understand what\'s going on.

I will give Sloman one last chance to put up or shut about Joe Biden\'s federal plan to modernize the electrical grid and create more generation capacity

Were we talking about that?

> before I explain the simple reason he can\'t. Hint: he hasn\'t produced it because it DOESN\'T EXIST!

Why should it? The US government got out of electricity generation a long time ago, and tried to privatise a natural monopoly. The ENRON scandal should remind people that it isn\'t a great idea, but Gnatguy doesn\'t know enough to have noticed.

https://www.energy.gov/oe/articles/doe-launches-new-initiative-president-bidens-bipartisan-infrastructure-law-modernize

seems perfectly sensible - more high-voltage transmission lines between place where power is easy to generate (like Death Valley) and places where people like to live and use electricity makes every kind of sense. There doesn\'t seem to be any mention of creating any more power generation capacity - presumably the idea is that if you provide a means to ship the power from where it is easy to generate to where it is easy to sell, private enterprise can be relied on to exploit the opportunity to make money out of it. Of course you have to be able to do joined up logic to see that, and Gnatguy isn\'t up to that.

--
Bill Slom,an, Sydney
 
F

Flyguy

Guest
On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 9:00:17 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Friday, August 5, 2022 at 9:36:57 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Wednesday, August 3, 2022 at 6:54:12 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 3:55:30 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 7:23:17 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Tuesday, August 2, 2022 at 4:28:48 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 10:02:02 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:41:11 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 1:12:38 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee..org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:00:31 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 7:14:47 PM UTC-7, bill.....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 11:02:16 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 12:51:23 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:38:16 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
snip
Which is what you HAVE to do with renewables due to their unreliability. People WILL NOT tolerate an unreliable power supply, even YOU!

Solar power is quite a lot cheaper than the power generation schemes that you are used to. It\'s perfectly reliable - the sun keeps on coming up every day - but you do have to have grid scale batteries, pumped storage and long distance links to let you average out from day to night and between cloudy days here and there.

LOL! So do the CLOUDS!!

I wonder what Gnatguy thought that he meant by that.

snip

The various Australian electricity generating companies are all investing in more wind turbine farms and solar farms. Presumably there\'s some kind of plan involved, but it would be commercial in confidence, and you wouldn\'t be able to understand it if I could find a link to one of them.

As they are here, but there is a big problem (https://www.wsj.com/articles/electricity-shortage-warnings-grow-across-u-s-11652002380):

\"The risk of outages resulting from supply constraints comes amid other challenges straining the reliability of the grid. Large, sustained outages have occurred with greater frequency over the past two decades, in part because the grid has become more vulnerable to failure with age and an uptick in severe weather events exacerbated by climate change. A push to electrify home heating and cooking, and the expected growth of electric vehicles, may increase power demand in coming years, putting further pressure on the system.\"

This is the crux of the problem I was referring to at the outset of this thread. Europe almost had a catastrophic blackout on Jan 8, 2021 (https://stopthesethings.com/2021/02/02/european-emergency-chaotic-wind-solar-collapses-threaten-entire-europe-wide-blackout/):
But didn\'t.

The people who sell the power into the retail market want to put pressure on the people who supply the power to invest in excess generating capacity. The people who sell the power don\'t have to find the capital to pay the excess capacity, or the money to keep it maintained when it isn\'t generating power that anybody can sell. Spare generating capacity is great when you need it, and expensive when you don\'t, which is most of the time.

You see a particular sort of propaganda and take it seriously, because you are too dim to understand what\'s going on.

I will give Sloman one last chance to put up or shut about Joe Biden\'s federal plan to modernize the electrical grid and create more generation capacity

Were we talking about that?

HELLO! That is EXACTLY what we ARE talking about, Dick Tracy.

before I explain the simple reason he can\'t. Hint: he hasn\'t produced it because it DOESN\'T EXIST!
Why should it? The US government got out of electricity generation a long time ago, and tried to privatise a natural monopoly. The ENRON scandal should remind people that it isn\'t a great idea, but Gnatguy doesn\'t know enough to have noticed.

https://www.energy.gov/oe/articles/doe-launches-new-initiative-president-bidens-bipartisan-infrastructure-law-modernize

The US government was NEVER in the electricity generation business, Dick Tracy. WHY? Because they have NO AUTHORITY in this area, which MUST be granted by Congress. The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) is powerless in mandating any changes to the electrical grid. Electrical power generation responsibility is a mish-mash of local, state, and seven regional operators. Unfortunately, these operators are under-estimating the likelihood of extreme weather events, which guides their investments in new generation capacity and transmission lines.

seems perfectly sensible - more high-voltage transmission lines between place where power is easy to generate (like Death Valley) and places where people like to live and use electricity makes every kind of sense. There doesn\'t seem to be any mention of creating any more power generation capacity - presumably the idea is that if you provide a means to ship the power from where it is easy to generate to where it is easy to sell, private enterprise can be relied on to exploit the opportunity to make money out of it. Of course you have to be able to do joined up logic to see that, and Gnatguy isn\'t up to that.

More transmission lines require a major INVESTMENT, SNIPPERMAN, and this IS NOT happening. Furthermore, it requires regulatory approval and permitting, and will no doubt face major court challenges by the Greenies, which will, at the very minimum, delay such large projects, if not stop them altogether. You somehow think that this will just happen w/o spending

All of this is well explained here:
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-renewables-electric-grid/
which does say that \"the administration said in an April news release that it plans to offer $2.5 billion in grants for grid-modernization projects as part of Biden’s $1 trillion infrastructure package.\" This amount, however, is FAR BELOW what is necessary to accomplish this task, perhaps as much as a THOUSAND TIMES. These costs are further detailed here:
https://www.americanactionforum.org/research/the-cost-of-upgrading-electricity-transmission/
Here is a quote from that report:
\"The construction of new transmission facilities would cost an estimated $314 to $504 billion in capital costs on top of the estimated $1.8 to $2.1 trillion in new generation costs necessary to attain the 2035 goal, leading to higher bills for consumers.\"
Simple arithmetic sets the total cost at $2.1 to $2.6 TRILLION!

The bottom line is that the electrical grid is completely unprepared for current requirements, let alone the future electrification of America promised by Lyin\' Biden. And YOU are as unprepared as Lyin\' Biden, if not more so.
 
A

Anthony William Sloman

Guest
On Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 9:00:06 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 9:00:17 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Friday, August 5, 2022 at 9:36:57 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Wednesday, August 3, 2022 at 6:54:12 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 3:55:30 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 7:23:17 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Tuesday, August 2, 2022 at 4:28:48 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 10:02:02 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:41:11 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 1:12:38 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:00:31 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 7:14:47 PM UTC-7, bill.....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 11:02:16 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 12:51:23 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:38:16 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
snip
Which is what you HAVE to do with renewables due to their unreliability. People WILL NOT tolerate an unreliable power supply, even YOU!

Solar power is quite a lot cheaper than the power generation schemes that you are used to. It\'s perfectly reliable - the sun keeps on coming up every day - but you do have to have grid scale batteries, pumped storage and long distance links to let you average out from day to night and between cloudy days here and there.

LOL! So do the CLOUDS!!

I wonder what Gnatguy thought that he meant by that.

snip

The various Australian electricity generating companies are all investing in more wind turbine farms and solar farms. Presumably there\'s some kind of plan involved, but it would be commercial in confidence, and you wouldn\'t be able to understand it if I could find a link to one of them.

As they are here, but there is a big problem (https://www.wsj.com/articles/electricity-shortage-warnings-grow-across-u-s-11652002380):

\"The risk of outages resulting from supply constraints comes amid other challenges straining the reliability of the grid. Large, sustained outages have occurred with greater frequency over the past two decades, in part because the grid has become more vulnerable to failure with age and an uptick in severe weather events exacerbated by climate change. A push to electrify home heating and cooking, and the expected growth of electric vehicles, may increase power demand in coming years, putting further pressure on the system.\"

This is the crux of the problem I was referring to at the outset of this thread. Europe almost had a catastrophic blackout on Jan 8, 2021 (https://stopthesethings.com/2021/02/02/european-emergency-chaotic-wind-solar-collapses-threaten-entire-europe-wide-blackout/):
But didn\'t.

The people who sell the power into the retail market want to put pressure on the people who supply the power to invest in excess generating capacity. The people who sell the power don\'t have to find the capital to pay the excess capacity, or the money to keep it maintained when it isn\'t generating power that anybody can sell. Spare generating capacity is great when you need it, and expensive when you don\'t, which is most of the time.

You see a particular sort of propaganda and take it seriously, because you are too dim to understand what\'s going on.

I will give Sloman one last chance to put up or shut about Joe Biden\'s federal plan to modernize the electrical grid and create more generation capacity

Were we talking about that?
HELLO! That is EXACTLY what we ARE talking about, Dick Tracy.
before I explain the simple reason he can\'t. Hint: he hasn\'t produced it because it DOESN\'T EXIST!
Why should it? The US government got out of electricity generation a long time ago, and tried to privatise a natural monopoly. The ENRON scandal should remind people that it isn\'t a great idea, but Gnatguy doesn\'t know enough to have noticed.

https://www.energy.gov/oe/articles/doe-launches-new-initiative-president-bidens-bipartisan-infrastructure-law-modernize
The US government was NEVER in the electricity generation business, Dick Tracy.

Tennesse Valley Authority

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennessee_Valley_Authority

Gnatguy really is ignorant, and too dumb to realise how ignorant he is.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
F

Flyguy

Guest
On Friday, August 5, 2022 at 6:38:53 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 9:00:06 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 9:00:17 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Friday, August 5, 2022 at 9:36:57 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Wednesday, August 3, 2022 at 6:54:12 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 3:55:30 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 7:23:17 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Tuesday, August 2, 2022 at 4:28:48 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 10:02:02 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:41:11 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 1:12:38 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:00:31 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 7:14:47 PM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 11:02:16 AM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 12:51:23 AM UTC-7, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:38:16 PM UTC+10, Flyguy wrote:
snip
Which is what you HAVE to do with renewables due to their unreliability. People WILL NOT tolerate an unreliable power supply, even YOU!

Solar power is quite a lot cheaper than the power generation schemes that you are used to. It\'s perfectly reliable - the sun keeps on coming up every day - but you do have to have grid scale batteries, pumped storage and long distance links to let you average out from day to night and between cloudy days here and there.

LOL! So do the CLOUDS!!

I wonder what Gnatguy thought that he meant by that.

snip

The various Australian electricity generating companies are all investing in more wind turbine farms and solar farms. Presumably there\'s some kind of plan involved, but it would be commercial in confidence, and you wouldn\'t be able to understand it if I could find a link to one of them..

As they are here, but there is a big problem (https://www.wsj.com/articles/electricity-shortage-warnings-grow-across-u-s-11652002380):

\"The risk of outages resulting from supply constraints comes amid other challenges straining the reliability of the grid. Large, sustained outages have occurred with greater frequency over the past two decades, in part because the grid has become more vulnerable to failure with age and an uptick in severe weather events exacerbated by climate change. A push to electrify home heating and cooking, and the expected growth of electric vehicles, may increase power demand in coming years, putting further pressure on the system.\"

This is the crux of the problem I was referring to at the outset of this thread. Europe almost had a catastrophic blackout on Jan 8, 2021 (https://stopthesethings.com/2021/02/02/european-emergency-chaotic-wind-solar-collapses-threaten-entire-europe-wide-blackout/):
But didn\'t.

The people who sell the power into the retail market want to put pressure on the people who supply the power to invest in excess generating capacity. The people who sell the power don\'t have to find the capital to pay the excess capacity, or the money to keep it maintained when it isn\'t generating power that anybody can sell. Spare generating capacity is great when you need it, and expensive when you don\'t, which is most of the time.

You see a particular sort of propaganda and take it seriously, because you are too dim to understand what\'s going on.

I will give Sloman one last chance to put up or shut about Joe Biden\'s federal plan to modernize the electrical grid and create more generation capacity

Were we talking about that?
HELLO! That is EXACTLY what we ARE talking about, Dick Tracy.
before I explain the simple reason he can\'t. Hint: he hasn\'t produced it because it DOESN\'T EXIST!
Why should it? The US government got out of electricity generation a long time ago, and tried to privatise a natural monopoly. The ENRON scandal should remind people that it isn\'t a great idea, but Gnatguy doesn\'t know enough to have noticed.

https://www.energy.gov/oe/articles/doe-launches-new-initiative-president-bidens-bipartisan-infrastructure-law-modernize
The US government was NEVER in the electricity generation business, Dick Tracy.
Tennesse Valley Authority

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennessee_Valley_Authority

Gnatguy really is ignorant, and too dumb to realise how ignorant he is.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

From your reference:

\"TVA receives no taxpayer funding and operates similarly to a private for-profit company.\"

So, NO, the US government ISN\'T in the electricity generation \"business.\"
 

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