OT: Omicron...

[Ed Lee]

On Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 4:29:01 PM UTC-8, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:

On Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 8:19:55 PM UTC-4, Ed Lee wrote:
On Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 3:23:54 PM UTC-8, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 6:34:24 PM UTC-4, Ed Lee wrote:
On Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 2:14:48 PM UTC-8, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 5:48:21 PM UTC-4, Ed Lee wrote:
On Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 1:28:46 PM UTC-8, gnuarm.del....@gmail.com wrote:

Your idea that Delta is \"actively\" pushing Alpha out doesn\'t hold water. They typically aren\'t even infecting the same people. They just don\'t interact.
Yes, W (Wuhan, Alpha) disappeared 6 months before Delta, and during the time, it was D614G taking over, at least in the USA.
Ed Lee gets some sort of mutation numbers which only he can turn into values for strains, but I don\'t know I can trust his results as no one else understands what he is saying and he won\'t show his math.
I tried to show it many times:
delta variant is B.1.617.2 including D614G, T478K, L452R and P681R.

Currently, in the USA, roughly half of the samples are D614G and 1/3 are Delta.


USA______________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
2020/06__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%_|_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/07__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/08__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/09__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/10__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/11__(__977)_|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/12__(__873)_|___1%___1%___0%___1%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__1%__0%__0%__0%
2021/01__(_2682)_|___5%___4%___1%___5%___1%___0%__99%___1%_|__0%__3%_91%__4%__1%__0%__0%
2021/02__(_4927)_|___3%___9%___2%___1%___2%___0%__98%___2%_|__0%__7%_90%__1%__2%__0%__0%
2021/03__(11927)_|__15%__25%__15%___1%__15%___1%__85%__14%_|__0%_11%_73%__0%_14%__1%__0%
2021/04__(24080)_|__52%__58%__52%___4%__55%___3%__45%__52%_|__0%__6%_39%__0%_52%__3%__0%
2021/05__(27592)_|__67%__70%__66%___4%__70%___3%__30%__66%_|__0%__4%_26%__0%_66%__3%__0%
2021/06__(12070)_|__61%__63%__59%___5%__62%___3%__38%__59%_|__0%__4%_32%__2%_59%__3%__0%
2021/07__(20731)_|__25%__27%__25%__37%__28%___3%__68%__25%_|__0%__2%_32%_34%_24%__3%__5%
2021/08__(31367)_|___9%__12%__10%__71%__11%___2%__81%__10%_|__0%__1%_10%_69%__9%__1%_10%
2021/09__(_5566)_|__49%__49%__49%__22%__52%___3%__48%__49%_|__0%__3%_26%_19%_49%__0%__3%
2021/10__(_3376)_|__23%__23%__24%__18%__25%___2%__75%__23%_|__0%_11%_47%_17%_23%__0%__3%
2021/11__(_3248)_|__28%__28%__28%__16%__30%___2%__69%__28%_|__0%__7%_48%_14%_28%__0%__2%

_________________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
W=WuHan_A=452R+614G_B=484E+614G_C=484Q+614G_D=452R+478K+681R_E=478K+501Y_O=Other
This is what I mean. Only Ed knows how he gets \"1/3 are Delta\" from the above data. I think he did provide a link for the raw data, but it was in a form that is very hard to read or requires processing or something, I forget.
If i blank out the other parts:
2021/11__(_3248)_|__ ,,, _|__0%_____48%_____28%_______
_________________|_ ..._|___W_______B_______D_______
W=WuHan B=484E+614G D=452R+478K+681R

Let me rephase it:
WHO\'s delta variant is B.1.617.2 including D614G, T478K, L452R and P681R.

But there are almost no sample with all of them.
Instead, I see 48% with B=484E+614G and 28% with D=452R+478K+681R

WHO is right that 98% contains 614G, 478K, 452R and 681R, but they are two separate strains of virus in the USA.

Data source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/datasets/coronavirus/genomes/
The data on this page doesn\'t seem to download. It says it\'s going to do it, but it never happens.

I don\'t believe in June the virus was 99% W and in July it was 99% B. Nope, didn\'t happen. You need to figure out what\'s wrong with your analysis or their data.

I do not have firm data before Nov 2020. Transition could have happened in Jul or Aug. But certainly by Nov, It\'s mostly B (D614G). The huge first wave occurs between Jul and Nov. If it\'s D614G in Nov, it\'s likely the same in Jul to Oct. D614G is so infectious that USA was number 1 for most of second part of 2020.

> > The data is still in NCBI, but it\'s impossible to back download, unless we have access to the raw data base. As with most government program, there is no \"ending date\". Namely, you can\'t specific an ending date to download.

There wasn\'t much data before Nov 2020 anyway, even if we can download. Serious genome sequencing started near end of 2020.

> I\'m not sure what you are trying to say. The data won\'t download at all. No date is specified.

You have to specify the starting date to download.

 

[Rick C]

On Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 8:41:18 PM UTC-4, Ed Lee wrote:

On Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 4:29:01 PM UTC-8, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 8:19:55 PM UTC-4, Ed Lee wrote:
On Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 3:23:54 PM UTC-8, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 6:34:24 PM UTC-4, Ed Lee wrote:
On Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 2:14:48 PM UTC-8, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 5:48:21 PM UTC-4, Ed Lee wrote:
On Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 1:28:46 PM UTC-8, gnuarm.del....@gmail.com wrote:

Your idea that Delta is \"actively\" pushing Alpha out doesn\'t hold water. They typically aren\'t even infecting the same people. They just don\'t interact.
Yes, W (Wuhan, Alpha) disappeared 6 months before Delta, and during the time, it was D614G taking over, at least in the USA.
Ed Lee gets some sort of mutation numbers which only he can turn into values for strains, but I don\'t know I can trust his results as no one else understands what he is saying and he won\'t show his math.
I tried to show it many times:
delta variant is B.1.617.2 including D614G, T478K, L452R and P681R.

Currently, in the USA, roughly half of the samples are D614G and 1/3 are Delta.


USA______________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
2020/06__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%_|_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/07__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/08__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/09__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/10__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/11__(__977)_|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/12__(__873)_|___1%___1%___0%___1%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__1%__0%__0%__0%
2021/01__(_2682)_|___5%___4%___1%___5%___1%___0%__99%___1%_|__0%__3%_91%__4%__1%__0%__0%
2021/02__(_4927)_|___3%___9%___2%___1%___2%___0%__98%___2%_|__0%__7%_90%__1%__2%__0%__0%
2021/03__(11927)_|__15%__25%__15%___1%__15%___1%__85%__14%_|__0%_11%_73%__0%_14%__1%__0%
2021/04__(24080)_|__52%__58%__52%___4%__55%___3%__45%__52%_|__0%__6%_39%__0%_52%__3%__0%
2021/05__(27592)_|__67%__70%__66%___4%__70%___3%__30%__66%_|__0%__4%_26%__0%_66%__3%__0%
2021/06__(12070)_|__61%__63%__59%___5%__62%___3%__38%__59%_|__0%__4%_32%__2%_59%__3%__0%
2021/07__(20731)_|__25%__27%__25%__37%__28%___3%__68%__25%_|__0%__2%_32%_34%_24%__3%__5%
2021/08__(31367)_|___9%__12%__10%__71%__11%___2%__81%__10%_|__0%__1%_10%_69%__9%__1%_10%
2021/09__(_5566)_|__49%__49%__49%__22%__52%___3%__48%__49%_|__0%__3%_26%_19%_49%__0%__3%
2021/10__(_3376)_|__23%__23%__24%__18%__25%___2%__75%__23%_|__0%_11%_47%_17%_23%__0%__3%
2021/11__(_3248)_|__28%__28%__28%__16%__30%___2%__69%__28%_|__0%__7%_48%_14%_28%__0%__2%

_________________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
W=WuHan_A=452R+614G_B=484E+614G_C=484Q+614G_D=452R+478K+681R_E=478K+501Y_O=Other
This is what I mean. Only Ed knows how he gets \"1/3 are Delta\" from the above data. I think he did provide a link for the raw data, but it was in a form that is very hard to read or requires processing or something, I forget.
If i blank out the other parts:
2021/11__(_3248)_|__ ,,, _|__0%_____48%_____28%_______
_________________|_ ..._|___W_______B_______D_______
W=WuHan B=484E+614G D=452R+478K+681R

Let me rephase it:
WHO\'s delta variant is B.1.617.2 including D614G, T478K, L452R and P681R.

But there are almost no sample with all of them.
Instead, I see 48% with B=484E+614G and 28% with D=452R+478K+681R

WHO is right that 98% contains 614G, 478K, 452R and 681R, but they are two separate strains of virus in the USA.

Data source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/datasets/coronavirus/genomes/
The data on this page doesn\'t seem to download. It says it\'s going to do it, but it never happens.

I don\'t believe in June the virus was 99% W and in July it was 99% B. Nope, didn\'t happen. You need to figure out what\'s wrong with your analysis or their data.
I do not have firm data before Nov 2020. Transition could have happened in Jul or Aug. But certainly by Nov, It\'s mostly B (D614G). The huge first wave occurs between Jul and Nov. If it\'s D614G in Nov, it\'s likely the same in Jul to Oct. D614G is so infectious that USA was number 1 for most of second part of 2020.
The data is still in NCBI, but it\'s impossible to back download, unless we have access to the raw data base. As with most government program, there is no \"ending date\". Namely, you can\'t specific an ending date to download.
There wasn\'t much data before Nov 2020 anyway, even if we can download. Serious genome sequencing started near end of 2020.
I\'m not sure what you are trying to say. The data won\'t download at all.. No date is specified.
You have to specify the starting date to download.

Specified date, still no file download. Typical government BS. Do it right or figure it out on your own. No info provided.

--

Rick C.

-++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Martin Brown]

On 30/11/2021 18:19, ke...@kjwdesigns.com wrote:

On Tuesday, 30 November 2021 at 09:14:32 UTC-8, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
....
No one disputes that point. What you can\'t seem to grasp is that this simple fact has nothing to do with two strains \"competing\" with one another. The growth rate of one strain does not impact the growth rate of the other strain. That\'s what competition is.

Surely it does if there s cross-immunity.

Even without that modification of behaviour (and rules) because of a
rapidly growing infection with the more vigorous strain creates a
situation where the less fit strain falls by the wayside. Each
successive generation the fittest strain gets additional market share.

If one strain infects somebody so that they are less likely to get the either strain again for some time there is competition between the two strains. The strain that is more infective will tend to reduce the other to the point of extinction.

Even more so when interventions like social distancing, mask wearing,
work from home and vaccination put in place to defeat the newest variant
take the effective R value for the older strains below unity.

Selection pressure is now entirely focussed on ability to reproduce and
transmit the disease to others. That typically means faster penetration
into a cell, more rapid replication and a longer incubation time spent
highly infective in nasal passages without showing any obvious symptoms.

Wild forms and D614G have all but disappeared in places where Alpha and
then Delta have really taken hold. Delta AY.4.2 is now rising in the UK
so it must have a reproductive advantage in our environment.

You can still get sporadic cases of the older strains re-introduced by
foreign travel but there is no longer much if any community
transmission. The strain of the virus with the highest success rate at
reproducing quickly supplants the previous strains until a new even
fitter one arises. Omicron looks like it might be just that.

This is a bit dated now but it shows how the WHO and scientists have
assessed the effectiveness of vaccine induced antibodies against the
viral forms up to Delta.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0753332221009604

Pfizer doesn\'t appear to handle P1 all that well.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

 

[bitrex]

On 11/29/2021 4:47 AM, Cursitor Doom wrote:

On Mon, 29 Nov 2021 05:12:49 +0200, Dimiter_Popoff <dp@tgi-sci.com
wrote:

On 11/29/2021 3:00, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
On Monday, November 29, 2021 at 10:42:30 AM UTC+11, Cursitor Doom wrote:
On Sun, 28 Nov 2021 11:11:24 -0800 (PST), Dean Hoffman
dean...@gmail.com> wrote:

On Sunday, November 28, 2021 at 12:59:55 PM UTC-6, Cursitor Doom wrote:
Gentlemen,

This newest variant of Covid has been dubbed omicron rather than
epsilon. If we\'re following the convention, why have we suddenly jumped
so far from delta in the Greek alphabet? Anyone know?

https://dailycaller.com/2021/11/27/world-health-organization-omicron-variant-nu-xi-coronavirus/

But they skipped over *10* other letters in total, not just the 2 mentioned in the article!

Clearly, there have been eight other variants, none of which have shown up in sufficient volume to become variants of concern.


I wonder what they will do after they have used the omega...

We\'ll all be dead by then. One way or another...
--

\"The Communists are further reproached with desiring to abolish countries
and nationality.\"

- The Communist Manifesto, Marx & Engels

It\'s weird how the communist manifesto made some suggestions that 21st
century capitalism seems to be implementing way more efficiently than
the 20th century communists ever did.

\"Klaus Schwab as publisher of the World Economic Forum\'s 2010 \'Global
Redesign\' report postulates that a globalized world is best managed by a
self-selected coalition of multinational corporations, governments
(including through the UN system) and select civil society organizations
(CSOs).\"

As I recall Marx wrote about a \"dictatorship of the proletariat\", not a
\"dictatorship of the CEOs\", or a \"dictatorship of the dictatorship\", lol.

Have to chuckle at people in the US remarking about photos of stores
here with no product on the shelves during the pandemic \"Wow, it\'s just
like Venezuela\" no, it\'s just like America! they can\'t even remember
where they are, gosh sounds like a perfectly amenable people to abolish
nationality in to begin with.

Anyway the global company store Amazon is having some good deals this
week, better check \'em out!!!!