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excellent virus rant

Guest
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/

Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.


"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which
may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up
to public panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions,
a media story about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the
public, which becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction
becomes a story in itself, prompting additional coverage in the media,
which in turn produces greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel
for fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying
around exposed, something will come along to exploit it.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard
 
B

Bill Sloman

Guest
On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 12:49:33 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/

Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.

"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which
may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up
to public panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions,
a media story about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the
public, which becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction
becomes a story in itself, prompting additional coverage in the media,
which in turn produces greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel
for fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying
around exposed, something will come along to exploit it.
Unfortunately, the British don't seem to be fearful enough to have embraced a lock-down that reduced transmission to a level that won't sustain an epidemic.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The new cases-per-day-number is pretty much flat at around 4500 new cases per day. There doesn't seem to enough anxiety around to get civil servants doing effective contact tracing.

It's all looking very like the US.

Sir David Spiegelhalter may be a brilliant statistician, but he doesn't seem to be paying enough attention to what the lock down is supposed to be doing - and manifesting failing to do.

Or it could be that Breitbart is subtly distorting his message to fit the US right-wing idea that the working classes should get back to work, even if it kills quite a few of them.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
T

Tom Gardner

Guest
On 02/05/20 16:06, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 12:49:33 AM UTC+10,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/



Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.

"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which may
start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up to public
panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions, a media story
about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the public, which
becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction becomes a story in
itself, prompting additional coverage in the media, which in turn produces
greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel for
fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying around
exposed, something will come along to exploit it.

Unfortunately, the British don't seem to be fearful enough to have embraced a
lock-down that reduced transmission to a level that won't sustain an
epidemic.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The new cases-per-day-number is pretty much flat at around 4500 new cases per
day. There doesn't seem to enough anxiety around to get civil servants doing
effective contact tracing.

It's all looking very like the US.

Sir David Spiegelhalter may be a brilliant statistician, but he doesn't seem
to be paying enough attention to what the lock down is supposed to be doing -
and manifesting failing to do.

Or it could be that Breitbart is subtly distorting his message to fit the US
right-wing idea that the working classes should get back to work, even if it
kills quite a few of them.
Personally I'd ignore Breitbart since they will
have a "not-well-articulated" agenda. Doubly so
for the "lockdownsceptics.org" reports.

When I want to hear what Spiegelhalter is saying,
I'll look at his twitter feed, his blog, or the
article in The Guardian from which Breitbart
snipped a few choice quotes.

Spiegelhalter is great at putting risks in context,
and he points out that it is rational to take
greater risks (i.e. micromorts) when you are older.
 
T

Tom Gardner

Guest
On 02/05/20 15:49, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/

Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.


"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which
may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up
to public panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions,
a media story about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the
public, which becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction
becomes a story in itself, prompting additional coverage in the media,
which in turn produces greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel
for fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying
around exposed, something will come along to exploit it.
There can be that vicious circle, but there can be /other/
vicious circles. Balance is needed.

For example...

OTOH we remember the Government's BSE "deny everything
until you can't", where the attitude was, explicitly:
- there's no need to worry since cows are ruminants and
we aren't, coupled with
- we don't know what is the agent nor how it is
transmitted
Go figure, and remember how that ended!

We also remember BoJo's happy-daze nothing-to-fear
statements about Covid 19. Then his behaviour caused
him to narrowly escape death. ("It could have gone
either way")
 

Guest
On Saturday, May 2, 2020 at 10:49:33 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/

Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.


"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which
may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up
to public panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions,
a media story about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the
public, which becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction
becomes a story in itself, prompting additional coverage in the media,
which in turn produces greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel
for fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying
around exposed, something will come along to exploit it.
Here's an alternative analysis of the piece-of-trash Johnson. How could the British be so stupid...

https://theintercept.com/2020/04/30/boris-johnsons-coronavirus-lies/

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard
 

Guest
On Sat, 2 May 2020 16:37:08 +0100, Tom Gardner
<spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 02/05/20 15:49, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/

Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.


"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which
may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up
to public panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions,
a media story about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the
public, which becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction
becomes a story in itself, prompting additional coverage in the media,
which in turn produces greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel
for fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying
around exposed, something will come along to exploit it.

There can be that vicious circle, but there can be /other/
vicious circles. Balance is needed.
Balance we won't get. Gradients build, excess energy becomes
available, and we get butterfly effect events.

The lockdown is building up huge unprecedented gradients of personal
energy, boredom and poverty and fear and some anger. That will fuel
cascades soon too.

EEs do dynamic simulations, but rarely the kinds that social systems
exhibit. The superregenerative receiver has some things in common with
the availability cascade, but even that is more predictable.

Public policy can't predict this stuff, but it could dampen the system
and refrain from piling on to specific events. As if.


For example...

OTOH we remember the Government's BSE "deny everything
until you can't", where the attitude was, explicitly:
- there's no need to worry since cows are ruminants and
we aren't, coupled with
- we don't know what is the agent nor how it is
transmitted
Go figure, and remember how that ended!
Looks like a total of under 300 human deaths worldwide. People knew
for ages that one shouldn't feed cows with cow bone meal. Cows are
vegetarians.

We also remember BoJo's happy-daze nothing-to-fear
statements about Covid 19. Then his behaviour caused
him to narrowly escape death. ("It could have gone
either way")
We are all thankful that he's back in action.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard
 
B

Bill Sloman

Guest
On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 1:59:43 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 2 May 2020 16:37:08 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 02/05/20 15:49, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/

Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.


"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which
may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up
to public panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions,
a media story about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the
public, which becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction
becomes a story in itself, prompting additional coverage in the media,
which in turn produces greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel
for fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying
around exposed, something will come along to exploit it.

There can be that vicious circle, but there can be /other/
vicious circles. Balance is needed.

Balance we won't get. Gradients build, excess energy becomes
available, and we get butterfly effect events.

The lockdown is building up huge unprecedented gradients of personal
energy, boredom and poverty and fear and some anger. That will fuel
cascades soon too.
It would be building up a whole lot less if it were done properly, and could be seen to rolling back the progress of the epidemic - as it is in Australia,and some other places, and clearly isn't in the US. Six weeks of lock down should have stopped the epidemic in its tracks. Since it hasn't, the population locked down has legitimate grounds for complaint.

Concentrating on the fact the being locked down is no fun rather misses the point that being locked down ought to be serving a purpose - and obviously isn't in the US.

<snipped pretentious twaddle>

Public policy can't predict this stuff, but it could dampen the system
and refrain from piling on to specific events. As if.
Public policy ought to deliver what it promises. A lock down that isn't actually getting rid of the epidemic is a fraud.

<snip>

> We are all thankful that he's (Boris Johnson) back in action.

We'd be a lot more thankful if the UK lock down wasn't just as inept as the US version.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
M

Martin Brown

Guest
On 02/05/2020 16:06, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 12:49:33 AM UTC+10,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/



Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.

"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events
which may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and
lead up to public panic and large-scale government action. On some
occasions, a media story about a risk catches the attention of a
segment of the public, which becomes aroused and worried. This
emotional reaction becomes a story in itself, prompting additional
coverage in the media, which in turn produces greater concern and
involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the
fuel for fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients
lying around exposed, something will come along to exploit it.

Unfortunately, the British don't seem to be fearful enough to have
embraced a lock-down that reduced transmission to a level that won't
sustain an epidemic.
That isn't what is happening in the UK. The lockdown is being obeyed by
the vast majority of the population who are scared witless by it. A few
teenagers here and there rebel from time to time but that is about it.

Look at any webcam in a major city or motorway and it is deserted. Wild
animals like deer on the road during daytime is now a risk when driving.
This sort of things normally only happens during the Xmas holidays.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The new cases-per-day-number is pretty much flat at around 4500 new
cases per day. There doesn't seem to enough anxiety around to get
civil servants doing effective contact tracing.
The disease is however running rampant through the care homes and
domiciliary care services (that look after elderly people in their
homes). Neither of these vectors seemed to have been considered. Lack of
PPE and inadequate testing until this month has left them very exposed.

Hospital admissions are coming down and we are notionally "Past the
peak" but the daily death toll remains stubbornly high at 700-800.
It's all looking very like the US.

Sir David Spiegelhalter may be a brilliant statistician, but he
doesn't seem to be paying enough attention to what the lock down is
supposed to be doing - and manifesting failing to do.
He is commenting on the situation rather than making government policy.
His heuristic description of the individual risk is reasonably accurate.
Or it could be that Breitbart is subtly distorting his message to fit
the US right-wing idea that the working classes should get back to
work, even if it kills quite a few of them.
The other interesting statistic is that like with TB of old it is
killing a higher proportion of those it infects in poorer regions.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown
 

Guest
On Sat, 2 May 2020 09:25:17 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Saturday, May 2, 2020 at 10:49:33 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/

Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.


"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which
may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up
to public panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions,
a media story about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the
public, which becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction
becomes a story in itself, prompting additional coverage in the media,
which in turn produces greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel
for fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying
around exposed, something will come along to exploit it.



Here's an alternative analysis of the piece-of-trash Johnson. How could the British be so stupid...

https://theintercept.com/2020/04/30/boris-johnsons-coronavirus-lies/
Why bother to think, when emoting takes less energy?



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard
 
B

Bill Sloman

Guest
On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 2:54:38 AM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:
On 02/05/2020 16:06, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 12:49:33 AM UTC+10,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/



Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.

"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events
which may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and
lead up to public panic and large-scale government action. On some
occasions, a media story about a risk catches the attention of a
segment of the public, which becomes aroused and worried. This
emotional reaction becomes a story in itself, prompting additional
coverage in the media, which in turn produces greater concern and
involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the
fuel for fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients
lying around exposed, something will come along to exploit it.

Unfortunately, the British don't seem to be fearful enough to have
embraced a lock-down that reduced transmission to a level that won't
sustain an epidemic.

That isn't what is happening in the UK. The lockdown is being obeyed by
the vast majority of the population who are scared witless by it. A few
teenagers here and there rebel from time to time but that is about it.
The problem seems to be the main point of a lock down is that it reduces social contacts enough to make contact tracing practical.

When this is done properly everybody who might have been in contact with an infectious person - including before they were visibly sick, or known to be infected - gets told to isolate themselves for 14 days from the time of the contact. This does seem to reduce new infections a lot.

If complacent civil servants imagine that enforcing lock down is all they need to do, they've missed the point.

Look at any webcam in a major city or motorway and it is deserted. Wild
animals like deer on the road during daytime is now a risk when driving.
This sort of things normally only happens during the Xmas holidays.
So the place is locked down, but the link I posted ( below) showed that it hasn't reduced the R value to anything much below one. The UK has steady stream of new infections, rather than a rapidly declining number of new infections

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The new cases-per-day-number is pretty much flat at around 4500 new
cases per day. There doesn't seem to enough anxiety around to get
civil servants doing effective contact tracing.

The disease is however running rampant through the care homes and
domiciliary care services (that look after elderly people in their
homes). Neither of these vectors seemed to have been considered.
They might have been considered, but nobody did anything effective about it..

Sydney has one really badly affected old peoples home, and it pops up on the news every night as another elderly resident dies, or another carer tests positive for Covid-19. It does seemed to have scared other old peoples homes into doing better.

Lack of PPE and inadequate testing until this month has left them very exposed.

Hospital admissions are coming down and we are notionally "Past the
peak" but the daily death toll remains stubbornly high at 700-800.

It's all looking very like the US.

Sir David Spiegelhalter may be a brilliant statistician, but he
doesn't seem to be paying enough attention to what the lock down is
supposed to be doing - and manifesting failing to do.

He is commenting on the situation rather than making government policy.
His heuristic description of the individual risk is reasonably accurate.

Or it could be that Breitbart is subtly distorting his message to fit
the US right-wing idea that the working classes should get back to
work, even if it kills quite a few of them.

The other interesting statistic is that like with TB of old it is
killing a higher proportion of those it infects in poorer regions.
It's not that interesting - being poor is known to be damaging to your health.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Spirit_Level_(book)

deals with lots of consequences of social inequality, and poorer health at the low end of the socio-economic spectrum is one of them. The UK isn't as bad as the US, but it's pretty unequal. High levels of inequality don't do anything positive for people at the top end of the spectrum either. They do much better than the poor, but they don't do as well as even poor people in more equal countries.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 

Guest
On Saturday, May 2, 2020 at 1:52:37 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 2 May 2020 09:25:17 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Saturday, May 2, 2020 at 10:49:33 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/

Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.


"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which
may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up
to public panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions,
a media story about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the
public, which becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction
becomes a story in itself, prompting additional coverage in the media,
which in turn produces greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel
for fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying
around exposed, something will come along to exploit it.



Here's an alternative analysis of the piece-of-trash Johnson. How could the British be so stupid...

https://theintercept.com/2020/04/30/boris-johnsons-coronavirus-lies/


Why bother to think, when emoting takes less energy?
That comment applies to the Boris Johnson types with their "magical thinking." He's a joke, another one who's wrong about everything.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard
 
C

Cursitor Doom

Guest
On Sat, 02 May 2020 16:42:32 +0100, Tom Gardner wrote:

Spiegelhalter is great at putting risks in context, and he points out
that it is rational to take greater risks (i.e. micromorts) when you are
older.
He gets wheeled out by the BBC for his 2p worth because they know he can
be trusted to tow the party line. He is as biased as they come.
 

Guest
On Sat, 2 May 2020 16:42:32 +0100, Tom Gardner
<spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 02/05/20 16:06, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 12:49:33 AM UTC+10,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/



Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.

"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which may
start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up to public
panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions, a media story
about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the public, which
becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction becomes a story in
itself, prompting additional coverage in the media, which in turn produces
greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel for
fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying around
exposed, something will come along to exploit it.

Unfortunately, the British don't seem to be fearful enough to have embraced a
lock-down that reduced transmission to a level that won't sustain an
epidemic.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The new cases-per-day-number is pretty much flat at around 4500 new cases per
day. There doesn't seem to enough anxiety around to get civil servants doing
effective contact tracing.

It's all looking very like the US.

Sir David Spiegelhalter may be a brilliant statistician, but he doesn't seem
to be paying enough attention to what the lock down is supposed to be doing -
and manifesting failing to do.

Or it could be that Breitbart is subtly distorting his message to fit the US
right-wing idea that the working classes should get back to work, even if it
kills quite a few of them.

Personally I'd ignore Breitbart since they will
have a "not-well-articulated" agenda. Doubly so
for the "lockdownsceptics.org" reports.

When I want to hear what Spiegelhalter is saying,
I'll look at his twitter feed, his blog, or the
article in The Guardian from which Breitbart
snipped a few choice quotes.

Spiegelhalter is great at putting risks in context,
and he points out that it is rational to take
greater risks (i.e. micromorts) when you are older.
If Brietbart links to something, you must assume it's not true. Earth
orbits the sun, for example.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard
 
B

Bill Sloman

Guest
On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 11:16:48 PM UTC+10, Cursitor Doom wrote:
On Sat, 02 May 2020 16:42:32 +0100, Tom Gardner wrote:

Spiegelhalter is great at putting risks in context, and he points out
that it is rational to take greater risks (i.e. micromorts) when you are
older.

He gets wheeled out by the BBC for his 2p worth because they know he can
be trusted to tow the party line. He is as biased as they come.
Actually, it is "toe the party line".

And Cursitor Doom prefers people who share his irrational idiocies, and regards the relatively sane as biased against his favourite lunacies (as indeed they are - sane and reasonable people find it much easier to agree with one another that do nut-cases like Cursitor Doom).

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
T

Tom Gardner

Guest
On 03/05/20 14:16, Cursitor Doom wrote:
On Sat, 02 May 2020 16:42:32 +0100, Tom Gardner wrote:

Spiegelhalter is great at putting risks in context, and he points out
that it is rational to take greater risks (i.e. micromorts) when you are
older.

He gets wheeled out by the BBC for his 2p worth because they know he can
be trusted to tow the party line. He is as biased as they come.
Bullshit.
 
T

Tom Gardner

Guest
On 03/05/20 15:34, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sat, 2 May 2020 16:42:32 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 02/05/20 16:06, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 12:49:33 AM UTC+10,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/



Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.

"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which may
start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up to public
panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions, a media story
about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the public, which
becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction becomes a story in
itself, prompting additional coverage in the media, which in turn produces
greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel for
fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying around
exposed, something will come along to exploit it.

Unfortunately, the British don't seem to be fearful enough to have embraced a
lock-down that reduced transmission to a level that won't sustain an
epidemic.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The new cases-per-day-number is pretty much flat at around 4500 new cases per
day. There doesn't seem to enough anxiety around to get civil servants doing
effective contact tracing.

It's all looking very like the US.

Sir David Spiegelhalter may be a brilliant statistician, but he doesn't seem
to be paying enough attention to what the lock down is supposed to be doing -
and manifesting failing to do.

Or it could be that Breitbart is subtly distorting his message to fit the US
right-wing idea that the working classes should get back to work, even if it
kills quite a few of them.

Personally I'd ignore Breitbart since they will
have a "not-well-articulated" agenda. Doubly so
for the "lockdownsceptics.org" reports.

When I want to hear what Spiegelhalter is saying,
I'll look at his twitter feed, his blog, or the
article in The Guardian from which Breitbart
snipped a few choice quotes.

Spiegelhalter is great at putting risks in context,
and he points out that it is rational to take
greater risks (i.e. micromorts) when you are older.

If Brietbart links to something, you must assume it's not true. Earth
orbits the sun, for example.
Er, where do you get that from?!
 
C

Cursitor Doom

Guest
On Sun, 03 May 2020 16:31:34 +0100, Tom Gardner wrote:

> Er, where do you get that from?!

You wouldn't understand. You're a MORON.
 
B

Bill Sloman

Guest
On Monday, May 4, 2020 at 12:34:12 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology..com wrote:
On Sat, 2 May 2020 16:42:32 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 02/05/20 16:06, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 12:49:33 AM UTC+10,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/



Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.

"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which may
start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up to public
panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions, a media story
about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the public, which
becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction becomes a story in
itself, prompting additional coverage in the media, which in turn produces
greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel for
fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying around
exposed, something will come along to exploit it.

Unfortunately, the British don't seem to be fearful enough to have embraced a
lock-down that reduced transmission to a level that won't sustain an
epidemic.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The new cases-per-day-number is pretty much flat at around 4500 new cases per
day. There doesn't seem to enough anxiety around to get civil servants doing
effective contact tracing.

It's all looking very like the US.

Sir David Spiegelhalter may be a brilliant statistician, but he doesn't seem to be paying enough attention to what the lock down is supposed to be doing - and manifesting failing to do.

Or it could be that Breitbart is subtly distorting his message to fit the US right-wing idea that the working classes should get back to work, even if it
kills quite a few of them.

Personally I'd ignore Breitbart since they will
have a "not-well-articulated" agenda. Doubly so
for the "lockdownsceptics.org" reports.

When I want to hear what Spiegelhalter is saying,
I'll look at his twitter feed, his blog, or the
article in The Guardian from which Breitbart
snipped a few choice quotes.

Spiegelhalter is great at putting risks in context,
and he points out that it is rational to take
greater risks (i.e. micromorts) when you are older.

If Brietbart links to something, you must assume it's not true. Earth
orbits the sun, for example.
That depends on your point of view. Tycho Brahe was perfectly happy with that point of view. It doesn't make for easy-to-follow first year lectures, but - as the theory of relativity spells out - the way the world looks does depend on where you are looking at it from.

Brietbart wasn't linking to anything. It was reporting on what Sir David Spiegelhalter had said. It wasn't a word-by-word transcription, and - as James Arthur regularly demonstrates here - you can change meaning quite a lot by deleting inconvenient content.

Gullible twits like you don't seem to notice when this happens, and happily rely on data from places - such as denialist web sites - that make a habit of it.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
B

Bill Sloman

Guest
On Monday, May 4, 2020 at 2:34:03 AM UTC+10, Cursitor Doom wrote:
On Sun, 03 May 2020 16:31:34 +0100, Tom Gardner wrote:

Er, where do you get that from?!

You wouldn't understand. You're a MORON.
Cursitor Doom may be silly enough to think that this true.

In reality none of has any trouble working out where John Larkin gets his silly ideas - one of which happens to be that Brietbart is a reliable source of unbiased information - and the question was entirely rhetorical.

It isn't as if John Larkin is going to try to answer it, and more than you have.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
 
M

Martin Brown

Guest
On 02/05/2020 19:01, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 2:54:38 AM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:
On 02/05/2020 16:06, Bill Sloman wrote:

Unfortunately, the British don't seem to be fearful enough to
have embraced a lock-down that reduced transmission to a level
that won't sustain an epidemic.

That isn't what is happening in the UK. The lockdown is being
obeyed by the vast majority of the population who are scared
witless by it. A few teenagers here and there rebel from time to
time but that is about it.

The problem seems to be the main point of a lock down is that it
reduces social contacts enough to make contact tracing practical.
There is absolutely no contact tracing occurring in the UK and hasn't
been since March when they abandoned it completely. It was a bad mistake
but they are only now trying to recruit contact tracers. Outsourcing it
to the usual suspects (who will doubtless profit hugely from the
contracts and make a balls up of it). To say that they have previous
would be understating it - this from 2014:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27387048

The skilled contact tracers were all made redundant in the post 2008
crash to save on local government overheads.

When this is done properly everybody who might have been in contact
with an infectious person - including before they were visibly sick,
or known to be infected - gets told to isolate themselves for 14 days
from the time of the contact. This does seem to reduce new infections
a lot.
The advice was simple "Stay Home, Save Lives" and "Protect the NHS".
It has worked to a very large extent.

Unwinding it is going to be tricky. The general population have really
been scared witless.

The problem is that care homes were left as sacrificial lambs to the
slaughter since their staff have to go in daily. When staff get sick or
have to self isolated they use agency staff (typically on zero hours
contracts who can't afford to turn work down even if they are sick).
If complacent civil servants imagine that enforcing lock down is all
they need to do, they've missed the point.
The government insists that it is following all the scientific advice.
But the scientists are not allowed to discuss any dissenting views in
public and political advisors have been present at meetings of what is
supposed to be a *scientific expert group*.

Their previous chief scientific advice David King now Emeritus Professor
of Chemistry at Cambridge is setting up an unofficial SAGE2 group that
will not be muzzled by the politicians. He is concerned that scientists
who are working for the government are being lined up to take the blame.
(or employed by the government not free to speak up for the science)

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-sage-dominic-cummings-david-king-a9496546.html

Look at any webcam in a major city or motorway and it is deserted.
Wild animals like deer on the road during daytime is now a risk
when driving. This sort of things normally only happens during the
Xmas holidays.

So the place is locked down, but the link I posted ( below) showed
that it hasn't reduced the R value to anything much below one. The UK
has steady stream of new infections, rather than a rapidly declining
number of new infections
It has in the general population but not in the hottest spots which are
now mostly inside prisons and care homes. Places where social distancing
is virtually impossible by the design of the buildings.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The new cases-per-day-number is pretty much flat at around 4500
new cases per day. There doesn't seem to enough anxiety around to
get civil servants doing effective contact tracing.

The disease is however running rampant through the care homes and
domiciliary care services (that look after elderly people in their
homes). Neither of these vectors seemed to have been considered.

They might have been considered, but nobody did anything effective
about it.
I'd like to see evidence of that. They are still last on the list for
getting scarce PPE. Even the hospitals are living hand to mouth.

Publishing the results of pandemic simulation Exercise Cygnus 2016 is
about to be fought out in the courts (very slowly I suppose).
Sydney has one really badly affected old peoples home, and it pops up
on the news every night as another elderly resident dies, or another
carer tests positive for Covid-19. It does seemed to have scared
other old peoples homes into doing better.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-nhs-england-lockdown-keith-willett-uk-a9493036.html

Previous policy to free beds in the NHS system by making care homes take
back suspected Covid-19 patients not in immediate danger has back fired.

A few wiser ones refused this request point blank.
Lack of PPE and inadequate testing until this month has left them
very exposed.

Hospital admissions are coming down and we are notionally "Past
the peak" but the daily death toll remains stubbornly high at
700-800.

It's all looking very like the US.

Sir David Spiegelhalter may be a brilliant statistician, but he
doesn't seem to be paying enough attention to what the lock down
is supposed to be doing - and manifesting failing to do.
He is trying to aid the public understanding of statistical risk and
doing a reasonably good job of it too. The government propaganda is too
heavy handed for the actual risk to healthy fit individuals under 50.

Their original plan of slowly developing herd immunity was probably the
only honest game in town at present. The Netherlands and Sweden are the
only countries still following that sort of path.

He is commenting on the situation rather than making government
policy. His heuristic description of the individual risk is
reasonably accurate.

Or it could be that Breitbart is subtly distorting his message to
fit the US right-wing idea that the working classes should get
back to work, even if it kills quite a few of them.

The other interesting statistic is that like with TB of old it is
killing a higher proportion of those it infects in poorer regions.

It's not that interesting - being poor is known to be damaging to
your health.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Spirit_Level_(book)
It is showing up as a factor of two difference between postcodes that
are really quite close together but with very different income levels.
deals with lots of consequences of social inequality, and poorer
health at the low end of the socio-economic spectrum is one of them.
The UK isn't as bad as the US, but it's pretty unequal. High levels
of inequality don't do anything positive for people at the top end of
the spectrum either. They do much better than the poor, but they
don't do as well as even poor people in more equal countries.
I'm not sure that is entirely true for the likes of the oligarchs that
actually control how the country is run for their benefit. A very small
number of people have become insanely rich by vulture capitalism.

Typically they own superyachts, private jets and small tropical islands.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown
 
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