Covid Omicron Pattern...

[Ed Lee]

On Friday, February 4, 2022 at 1:10:24 PM UTC-8, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:

On Thursday, February 3, 2022 at 11:21:59 AM UTC-5, Ed Lee wrote:
On Friday, January 28, 2022 at 6:41:17 PM UTC-8, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
On Friday, January 28, 2022 at 6:08:05 PM UTC-4, Ed Lee wrote:
On Friday, January 28, 2022 at 12:26:25 PM UTC-8, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
On Friday, January 28, 2022 at 2:57:45 PM UTC-4, Ed Lee wrote:
On Friday, January 28, 2022 at 10:42:16 AM UTC-8, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
The ppm number may be the more relevant number if comparing different population centers, but while comparing the same population at different times the count is sufficient and essentially the same thing. At least until the pandemic starts killing enough people that it reduces the size of the population significantly.

Yeah, it looks like the death rate will be increasing for a bit longer though.

This makes me wonder about the rate of infection from strains other than omicron. Until the rates of infection get large enough to impact the number of available hosts, viral strains do not compete. I would love to see a curve of US infections that excludes the omicron strain or any similar strains allowing view of delta and the earlier strains so the progression of non-omicron strains can be compared.

I think it would provide useful insight to see if there is indeed a human response to the pandemic when a new strain spreads. It may result in more measures to not spread the disease so that the earlier strains have lower infection rates while the new strain proceeds to grow until the measures are effective enough to lower that. I can\'t think of another reason why the omicron variant would be reversing so quickly. But I have my doubts as I don\'t see where many restrictions have been enacted where I spend time.
Yes, i am watching closely how the two strains are coexisting. During the Delta wave, Xi (D614G) was fairly constant, and almost recovering in Nov, while Delta disappeared. If Omicron can exhaust Xi, by using up all the fuel, perhaps the end is in-sight.

CDC claims Omicron is 99.9%. I am not ready to confirm it yet. According to latest data, Omicron is close to 85%, but Xi is still around 11%.
Fuel? What are you talking about?
Yes, vulnerable people.
That term is used to refer not to people who can catch the virus, but to people who will be suffer morbidity or death. In any event, the total infected by omicron in the US is only around 23 million, still far from enough to impact infection rates of other strains.
If you mean uninfected people, there\'s no evidence we have even approximated this yet. It\'s not even clear as to which strains provide immunity to which other strains that I\'ve seen. I have read that some funny things are going on with omicron in that regard.
Just like fighting fire with fire, you don\'t need to exhaust all fuel. As long as you stop the path of motion, it could be stopped.
Whatever. I\'m trying to talk about the virus. The omicron variant has not impacted the population enough to cause it\'s own spread to be impacted.. Even if it had, the slowdown and reversal would not be this quick. There are other issues at play.
It\'s slowing down in dense population area. The peak was around 85% Omicron, but Xi is coming back at 25%. I believe Xi is doing most of the killings.

Week:
1: (30893) | 7% 92% 1%
2: (13434) | 3% 76% 16%
3: (15960) | 4% 52% 38%
4: ( 7619) | 2% 32% 59%
5: ( 6773) | 12% 19% 60%
6: ( 8068) | 3% 8% 85%
7: ( 7273) | 6% 19% 68%

Column:
1: Samples
2: Xi Class B
3: Xi Class C
4: Omicron

No evidence of Xi Class A (Alpha/Wuhan) or Delta.
When you work with percentages, it tells you a lot less than working with absolute numbers. But the data you have is strange and you can\'t explain to anyone else how you come up with it, so...

OK, quick pull of some rough estimates:

01: [30893] | 07%(00045501) 92%(00614241) 01%(00004077) (00670000)
02: [13434] | 03%(00021676) 76%(00637099) 16%(00132164) (00832000)
03: [15960] | 04%(00037127) 52%(00444495) 38%(00330206) (00860000)
04: [07619] | 02%(00035285) 32%(00457022) 59%(00848353) (01430000)
05: [06773] | 12%(00339820) 19%(00523786) 60%(01675535) (02800000)
06: [08068] | 03%(00066001) 08%(00204822) 85%(02134978) (02500000)
07: [10431] | 06%(00111590) 17%(00335155) 71%(01417314) (02000000)

Column:
1: [sample size] 2:Xi/B ratio(cases) 3:Xi/C ratio(cases) 4: Omicron ratio(cases) 5weekly cases)

 

[Rick C]

On Friday, February 4, 2022 at 4:43:13 PM UTC-5, Ed Lee wrote:

On Friday, February 4, 2022 at 1:10:24 PM UTC-8, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, February 3, 2022 at 11:21:59 AM UTC-5, Ed Lee wrote:
On Friday, January 28, 2022 at 6:41:17 PM UTC-8, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
On Friday, January 28, 2022 at 6:08:05 PM UTC-4, Ed Lee wrote:
On Friday, January 28, 2022 at 12:26:25 PM UTC-8, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
Whatever. I\'m trying to talk about the virus. The omicron variant has not impacted the population enough to cause it\'s own spread to be impacted. Even if it had, the slowdown and reversal would not be this quick. There are other issues at play.
It\'s slowing down in dense population area. The peak was around 85% Omicron, but Xi is coming back at 25%. I believe Xi is doing most of the killings.

Week:
1: (30893) | 7% 92% 1%
2: (13434) | 3% 76% 16%
3: (15960) | 4% 52% 38%
4: ( 7619) | 2% 32% 59%
5: ( 6773) | 12% 19% 60%
6: ( 8068) | 3% 8% 85%
7: ( 7273) | 6% 19% 68%

Column:
1: Samples
2: Xi Class B
3: Xi Class C
4: Omicron

No evidence of Xi Class A (Alpha/Wuhan) or Delta.
When you work with percentages, it tells you a lot less than working with absolute numbers. But the data you have is strange and you can\'t explain to anyone else how you come up with it, so...
OK, quick pull of some rough estimates:

01: [30893] | 07%(00045501) 92%(00614241) 01%(00004077) (00670000)
02: [13434] | 03%(00021676) 76%(00637099) 16%(00132164) (00832000)
03: [15960] | 04%(00037127) 52%(00444495) 38%(00330206) (00860000)
04: [07619] | 02%(00035285) 32%(00457022) 59%(00848353) (01430000)
05: [06773] | 12%(00339820) 19%(00523786) 60%(01675535) (02800000)
06: [08068] | 03%(00066001) 08%(00204822) 85%(02134978) (02500000)
07: [10431] | 06%(00111590) 17%(00335155) 71%(01417314) (02000000)

Column:
1: [sample size] 2:Xi/B ratio(cases) 3:Xi/C ratio(cases) 4: Omicron ratio(cases) 5weekly cases)

Any scientist worth his/her salt would question this data and look for a flaw in the analysis. The Xi/B ratio is all over the place. It is in the 20-40k range for a few weeks, then rises to 340k, then back down to 66k and back up to 112k. That is highly unlikely. With numbers that large it is almost impossible to be random variation in the population. There is no reason to believe in any force on reproduction rates on a single strain that vary so wildly.

So, where in this data does the delta variant show up? What dates are these weeks?

--

Rick C.

--+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

[Ed Lee]

On Saturday, February 5, 2022 at 4:09:42 AM UTC-8, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
> ...
Update:
[Samples/New Cases]_|_Xi_Class_B__Xi_Class_C__Omicron
01: [30893/0670000] | 07%(045501) 92%(614241) 01%(0004077)
02: [13434/0832000] | 03%(021676) 76%(637099) 16%(0132164)
03: [15960/0860000] | 04%(037127) 52%(444495) 38%(0330206)
04: [07619/1430000] | 02%(035285) 32%(457022) 59%(0848353)
05: [06773/2800000] | 12%(339820) 19%(523786) 60%(1675535)
06: [08068/5300000] | 03%(139923) 08%(434222) 85%(4526153)
07: [10431/4132000] | 06%(230546) 17%(692430) 71%(2928170)

> Any scientist worth his/her salt would question this data and look for a flaw in the analysis. The Xi/B ratio is all over the place. It is in the 20-40k range for a few weeks, then rises to 340k, then back down to 66k and back up to 112k. That is highly unlikely. With numbers that large it is almost impossible to be random variation in the population. There is no reason to believe in any force on reproduction rates on a single strain that vary so wildly.

There are sampling errors (1 sample in 500 at the peak) and timing errors (some reporting dates are off by 2 to 3 weeks). Furthermore, the total new cases are from other sources (worldometer, etc). But the average trend is clear. At least proving that Xi is not going away.

> So, where in this data does the delta variant show up?

I explicitly check for the delta pattern (T478K, L452R and P681R). They do not exist since Nov 2021.
Omicron has P681R only, without T478K, L452R or D614G.
There are clearly two distinct groups of pattern in the dataset: Xi and Delta from Jun 2021 to Oct 2021, and Xi and Omicron from Dec 2021 to present.

> What dates are these weeks?

From Dec 2021, plus or minus two weeks.

 

[Sylvia Else]

On 26-Jan-22 4:28 pm, Rick C wrote:

There does seem to be a pattern of the omicron variant of covid rising in infection rates very rapidly, then peaking and falling off. The drop does not seem to be as rapid and several countries have seen it drop some and plateau.

I\'m surprised by this as I don\'t think it can be explained by changes in behavior. I spend time in Virginia and Puerto Rico where the infection is following roughly the same pattern.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/puerto-rico-covid-cases.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/virginia-covid-cases.html

(you may find a pay wall, I seem to be able to work around it by starting at the top and clicking through to reach the states)

However, I see Puerto Rico taking the mask thing very much more seriously. They do congregate in mostly open air bars and restaurants (without masks), but otherwise not a lot of exposure.

In Virginia it seems well over half the people in public are ignoring the mask advice and this has not changed as the infection numbers has risen.

So what could be a factor that results in a highly infectious strain rising in rates so rapidly, only to peak and turn around in a short time, well before a significant number of people are infected?

I read that the FDA has pulled the emergency approval for some of the antibody treatments since they are not effective against the omicron strain. So that their use should not be a factor.

Any thoughts?

This is interesting, and possibly related:

<https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-04/qld-coronavirus-covid-pcr-tests-queensland-health-symptoms/100771540>

Sylvia.