Covid Omicron Pattern...

R

Rick C

Guest
There does seem to be a pattern of the omicron variant of covid rising in infection rates very rapidly, then peaking and falling off. The drop does not seem to be as rapid and several countries have seen it drop some and plateau.

I\'m surprised by this as I don\'t think it can be explained by changes in behavior. I spend time in Virginia and Puerto Rico where the infection is following roughly the same pattern.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/puerto-rico-covid-cases.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/virginia-covid-cases.html

(you may find a pay wall, I seem to be able to work around it by starting at the top and clicking through to reach the states)

However, I see Puerto Rico taking the mask thing very much more seriously. They do congregate in mostly open air bars and restaurants (without masks), but otherwise not a lot of exposure.

In Virginia it seems well over half the people in public are ignoring the mask advice and this has not changed as the infection numbers has risen.

So what could be a factor that results in a highly infectious strain rising in rates so rapidly, only to peak and turn around in a short time, well before a significant number of people are infected?

I read that the FDA has pulled the emergency approval for some of the antibody treatments since they are not effective against the omicron strain. So that their use should not be a factor.

Any thoughts?

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
L

legg

Guest
On Tue, 25 Jan 2022 21:28:42 -0800 (PST), Rick C
<gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

There does seem to be a pattern of the omicron variant of covid rising in infection rates very rapidly, then peaking and falling off. The drop does not seem to be as rapid and several countries have seen it drop some and plateau.

I\'m surprised by this as I don\'t think it can be explained by changes in behavior. I spend time in Virginia and Puerto Rico where the infection is following roughly the same pattern.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/puerto-rico-covid-cases.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/virginia-covid-cases.html

(you may find a pay wall, I seem to be able to work around it by starting at the top and clicking through to reach the states)

However, I see Puerto Rico taking the mask thing very much more seriously. They do congregate in mostly open air bars and restaurants (without masks), but otherwise not a lot of exposure.

In Virginia it seems well over half the people in public are ignoring the mask advice and this has not changed as the infection numbers has risen.

So what could be a factor that results in a highly infectious strain rising in rates so rapidly, only to peak and turn around in a short time, well before a significant number of people are infected?

I read that the FDA has pulled the emergency approval for some of the antibody treatments since they are not effective against the omicron strain. So that their use should not be a factor.

Any thoughts?

If positive detection rates are >20%, it doesn\'t take very long
before everyone has it, even those employing serious precautions.

Low case fatality rates ( 0.2 to 0.3%) are unlikely to be achievable
in elderly or immuno-compromised populations, even after vaccination.

It\'s those numbers that need watching.

Testing figures in countries with high test capacity are more likely
to give accurate test positivity rates.

RL
 
E

Ed Lee

Guest
On Tuesday, January 25, 2022 at 9:28:46 PM UTC-8, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
There does seem to be a pattern of the omicron variant of covid rising in infection rates very rapidly, then peaking and falling off. The drop does not seem to be as rapid and several countries have seen it drop some and plateau.

I\'m surprised by this as I don\'t think it can be explained by changes in behavior. I spend time in Virginia and Puerto Rico where the infection is following roughly the same pattern.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/puerto-rico-covid-cases.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/virginia-covid-cases.html

(you may find a pay wall, I seem to be able to work around it by starting at the top and clicking through to reach the states)

However, I see Puerto Rico taking the mask thing very much more seriously.. They do congregate in mostly open air bars and restaurants (without masks), but otherwise not a lot of exposure.

In Virginia it seems well over half the people in public are ignoring the mask advice and this has not changed as the infection numbers has risen.

So what could be a factor that results in a highly infectious strain rising in rates so rapidly, only to peak and turn around in a short time, well before a significant number of people are infected?

I read that the FDA has pulled the emergency approval for some of the antibody treatments since they are not effective against the omicron strain. So that their use should not be a factor.

Any thoughts?

I won\'t bore you with the data, since one foul mouth degenerated poster complaints about seeing the real data. He can\'t handle the real data. Data reported this week indeed show omicron reaching 90% of variants in the USA. This is likely reflecting the situation around 2 weeks ago.

There are many theories regarding omicron. Since Omicron attacks skin surface and upper respiratory track better, people are less likely to have serious illness but still infectious. Vaccination reduces illness, but won\'t stop infection and spreading. In other words, much more asymptomatic transmissions.
 
R

Rick C

Guest
On Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 9:54:58 AM UTC-4, legg wrote:
On Tue, 25 Jan 2022 21:28:42 -0800 (PST), Rick C
gnuarm.del...@gmail.com> wrote:

There does seem to be a pattern of the omicron variant of covid rising in infection rates very rapidly, then peaking and falling off. The drop does not seem to be as rapid and several countries have seen it drop some and plateau.

I\'m surprised by this as I don\'t think it can be explained by changes in behavior. I spend time in Virginia and Puerto Rico where the infection is following roughly the same pattern.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/puerto-rico-covid-cases.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/virginia-covid-cases.html

(you may find a pay wall, I seem to be able to work around it by starting at the top and clicking through to reach the states)

However, I see Puerto Rico taking the mask thing very much more seriously. They do congregate in mostly open air bars and restaurants (without masks), but otherwise not a lot of exposure.

In Virginia it seems well over half the people in public are ignoring the mask advice and this has not changed as the infection numbers has risen.

So what could be a factor that results in a highly infectious strain rising in rates so rapidly, only to peak and turn around in a short time, well before a significant number of people are infected?

I read that the FDA has pulled the emergency approval for some of the antibody treatments since they are not effective against the omicron strain. So that their use should not be a factor.

Any thoughts?
If positive detection rates are >20%, it doesn\'t take very long
before everyone has it, even those employing serious precautions.

Low case fatality rates ( 0.2 to 0.3%) are unlikely to be achievable
in elderly or immuno-compromised populations, even after vaccination.

It\'s those numbers that need watching.

Testing figures in countries with high test capacity are more likely
to give accurate test positivity rates.

Sorry, I don\'t follow where you are going with this. Covid has ramped up in many countries, with the earlier infection ramps reversing and coming down. South Africa where it was first detected has come down to nearly where it was before the omicron infection. The US currently has some states, like New York in a similar decline. Starting with nearly 3 million total infected and presently 4.8 million, it is hard to see how adding less than 2 million infections to a population of nearly 20 million would cause such a rapid reversal of the spread. In South Africa the added infections were about half a million in a population of 60 million, so even less likely to be the result of achieving heard immunity.

In no case is any location anywhere near \"everyone\" having it.

--

Rick C.

+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
M

Martin Brown

Guest
On 26/01/2022 17:17, Rick C wrote:
On Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 9:54:58 AM UTC-4, legg wrote:
On Tue, 25 Jan 2022 21:28:42 -0800 (PST), Rick C
gnuarm.del...@gmail.com> wrote:

There does seem to be a pattern of the omicron variant of covid
rising in infection rates very rapidly, then peaking and falling
off. The drop does not seem to be as rapid and several countries
have seen it drop some and plateau.

I\'m surprised by this as I don\'t think it can be explained by
changes in behavior. I spend time in Virginia and Puerto Rico
where the infection is following roughly the same pattern.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/puerto-rico-covid-cases.html



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/virginia-covid-cases.html

(you may find a pay wall, I seem to be able to work around it by
starting at the top and clicking through to reach the states)

However, I see Puerto Rico taking the mask thing very much more
seriously. They do congregate in mostly open air bars and
restaurants (without masks), but otherwise not a lot of
exposure.

In Virginia it seems well over half the people in public are
ignoring the mask advice and this has not changed as the
infection numbers has risen.

So what could be a factor that results in a highly infectious
strain rising in rates so rapidly, only to peak and turn around
in a short time, well before a significant number of people are
infected?

In a vaccinated population you have quite a lot of people asymptomatic.
It has ripped through the UK running for about 5 weeks now with ~5%
infected at the peak now down to around 1% again and steady.

It appeared to rip through school children, university students and
younger population of party animals very quickly with an alarmingly
steep rise to 200k/day and then back off a bit. Some of it may well be
older people staying out of its way.

One very curious statistic out today is that 2/3 of the people who
caught Omicron in the latest wave had previously been infected with an
earlier strain with a recorded PCR+ test in an earlier wave.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60132096

This is certainly a curious result as it potentially implies that some
people are very much more likely to catch Covid than others. Some of it
could well be occupational risk - front line medics and the like.

Or it could be risky behaviour or genetic vulnerability. The UK is
heavily vaccinated and so far the hospitals have been able to cope.

I read that the FDA has pulled the emergency approval for some of
the antibody treatments since they are not effective against the
omicron strain. So that their use should not be a factor.

Any thoughts?

If positive detection rates are >20%, it doesn\'t take very long
before everyone has it, even those employing serious precautions.

Certainly unless there are survey population tests like the REACT study
I referenced above you won\'t know the prevalence of asymptomatic
infected individuals which may be much higher now with the vaccine.

If you only test people who come forward because they have symptoms you
will miss all the asymptomatic cases. UK hospitals routinely test
incoming patients and the ratio of in hospital because of Covid to in
hospital (for something else) with Covid is about 2:1.

Low case fatality rates ( 0.2 to 0.3%) are unlikely to be
achievable in elderly or immuno-compromised populations, even after
vaccination.

It\'s those numbers that need watching.

Testing figures in countries with high test capacity are more
likely to give accurate test positivity rates.

UK is presently culling about 2k of its population per week with Covid
so that the hospitality sector can remain open. The Omicron peak seems
to have passed but exactly why this is remains a mystery.

Various countermeasures stop this week so we will soon see if that
results in a noticeable rise in cases. Today was 102k new cases
(so probably 1% of the population with active Covid right now)

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

It may well plateau at that level for the foreseeable future.
Sorry, I don\'t follow where you are going with this. Covid has
ramped up in many countries, with the earlier infection ramps
reversing and coming down. South Africa where it was first detected
has come down to nearly where it was before the omicron infection.
The US currently has some states, like New York in a similar decline.
Starting with nearly 3 million total infected and presently 4.8
million, it is hard to see how adding less than 2 million infections
to a population of nearly 20 million would cause such a rapid
reversal of the spread. In South Africa the added infections were
about half a million in a population of 60 million, so even less
likely to be the result of achieving heard immunity.

We can put bounds on it in the UK. Probably something like 20% of the
whole UK population have had Covid in the past 10 weeks (even higher in
London) and most of those would have been with Omicron.

FT puts it at 7% overall at this time last year:

https://www.ft.com/content/c5d29294-fdaf-465e-adc9-d4d27b9cbfa9

I think that may be very much on the low side now.

> In no case is any location anywhere near \"everyone\" having it.

Some parts of London certainly are. Some parts were at 60% having had it
over a year ago. Gets a mention in the FT piece above - they paid a very
high price to get there.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown
 
J

John Larkin

Guest
On Wed, 26 Jan 2022 08:55:03 -0500, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 25 Jan 2022 21:28:42 -0800 (PST), Rick C
gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

There does seem to be a pattern of the omicron variant of covid rising in infection rates very rapidly, then peaking and falling off. The drop does not seem to be as rapid and several countries have seen it drop some and plateau.

I\'m surprised by this as I don\'t think it can be explained by changes in behavior. I spend time in Virginia and Puerto Rico where the infection is following roughly the same pattern.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/puerto-rico-covid-cases.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/virginia-covid-cases.html

(you may find a pay wall, I seem to be able to work around it by starting at the top and clicking through to reach the states)

However, I see Puerto Rico taking the mask thing very much more seriously. They do congregate in mostly open air bars and restaurants (without masks), but otherwise not a lot of exposure.

In Virginia it seems well over half the people in public are ignoring the mask advice and this has not changed as the infection numbers has risen.

So what could be a factor that results in a highly infectious strain rising in rates so rapidly, only to peak and turn around in a short time, well before a significant number of people are infected?

I read that the FDA has pulled the emergency approval for some of the antibody treatments since they are not effective against the omicron strain. So that their use should not be a factor.

Any thoughts?

If positive detection rates are >20%, it doesn\'t take very long
before everyone has it, even those employing serious precautions.

Low case fatality rates ( 0.2 to 0.3%) are unlikely to be achievable
in elderly or immuno-compromised populations, even after vaccination.

It\'s those numbers that need watching.

Testing figures in countries with high test capacity are more likely
to give accurate test positivity rates.

RL

And huge, distorted positive case counts.

--

If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end with doubts,
but if he will be content to begin with doubts he shall end in certainties.
Francis Bacon
 
S

server

Guest
Ed Lee <edward.ming.lee@gmail.com> wrote in
news:88e98142-8239-45ff-9775-06839edaff92n@googlegroups.com:

I won\'t bore you with the data, since one foul mouth degenerated
poster complaints about seeing the real data.

That is not what I complained about, you retarded degenerated mouthy
piece of shit.
 
E

Ed Lee

Guest
On Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 11:43:20 AM UTC-8, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
Ed Lee <edward....@gmail.com> wrote in
news:88e98142-8239-45ff...@googlegroups.com:
I won\'t bore you with the data, since one foul mouth degenerated
poster complaints about seeing the real data.
That is not what I complained about, you retarded degenerated mouthy
piece of shit.

Then what are you complaining about the data? Showing that you are primitively degenerated? Why don\'t you offer some data or opinion?
 
S

server

Guest
Ed Lee <edward.shithead.lee@gmail.com> wrote in news:88e98142-8239-
45ff-9775-06839edaff92n@googlegroups.com:

> He can\'t handle the real data.

Can you handle a fast moving hunk of lead?

How about we go out in the morning for a duel?

I\'d put one right beyween your eyes from the hip, you pathetic know
nothing real piece of shit.

\"skin surface\" transmission is not happening much, if at all.
Airborne transmission is the most common manner.

Most all infection transmissions are via the breath. There are very
few starting from contact with a surface other than an infected
person\'s spittle, face, nose, and eyes if they are touched by a hand
that has touched an infected surface, like someone else\'s face or
mouth.

NONE of the vaccines \"stopped infection and spreading\". ANY
vaccinated person can contract an infection and WHILE the vaccinated
body is staving it off, that person can emit viron laced microdroplets
until the body finishes beating it. THAT IS WHY ONE SHOULD WEAR A MASK
EVEN AFTER BEING VACCINATED.

\"there are many theories\" Yeah, which is why we do not need to see
or hear yours.
 
R

Rick C

Guest
On Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 4:00:47 PM UTC-4, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
Ed Lee <edward.sh...@gmail.com> wrote in news:88e98142-8239-
45ff-9775-0...@googlegroups.com:
He can\'t handle the real data.
Can you handle a fast moving hunk of lead?

What a maroon!

--

Rick C.

-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
E

Ed Lee

Guest
On Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 12:00:47 PM UTC-8, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
Ed Lee <edward.sh...@gmail.com> wrote in news:88e98142-8239-
45ff-9775-0...@googlegroups.com:
He can\'t handle the real data.
Can you handle a fast moving hunk of lead?

How about we go out in the morning for a duel?

I\'d put one right beyween your eyes from the hip, you pathetic know
nothing real piece of shit.

Childish and primitive respond.
 
S

server

Guest
Ed Lee <edward.ming.lee@gmail.com> wrote in
news:c297f916-970c-4098-a114-b9ae32a4b983n@googlegroups.com:

On Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 11:43:20 AM UTC-8,
DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
Ed Lee <edward....@gmail.com> wrote in
news:88e98142-8239-45ff...@googlegroups.com:
I won\'t bore you with the data, since one foul mouth
degenerated poster complaints about seeing the real data.
That is not what I complained about, you retarded degenerated
mouthy piece of shit.

Then what are you complaining about the data?

I was complaining about your inane posting of it, when a link would
suffice.

Showing that you
are primitively degenerated?

Here you are back to being the total fucking retard that you are.

Why don\'t you offer some data or
opinion?

I guess you need remedial reading courses as well.
 
S

server

Guest
Rick C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote in
news:8ea0d83b-50cf-460e-bbf9-3cc5a06d39a2n@googlegroups.com:

On Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 4:00:47 PM UTC-4,
DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
Ed Lee <edward.sh...@gmail.com> wrote in news:88e98142-8239-
45ff-9775-0...@googlegroups.com:
He can\'t handle the real data.
Can you handle a fast moving hunk of lead?

What a maroon!

Jack off at the mouth like that retard and I\'d invite you for a
morning duel as well.

Oh and you invoking Bugs Bunny makes you almost as retarded as he is.

What an invitation to tell you to FOAD!

See how that works? He degenerates and gets it right back in his
face. You do the same and you get the same invitation.
 
S

server

Guest
Ed Lee <edward.ming.lee@gmail.com> wrote in
news:d940f6da-4f68-431c-9576-7f0fdb434abdn@googlegroups.com:

On Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 12:00:47 PM UTC-8,
DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
Ed Lee <edward.sh...@gmail.com> wrote in news:88e98142-8239-
45ff-9775-0...@googlegroups.com:
He can\'t handle the real data.
Can you handle a fast moving hunk of lead?

How about we go out in the morning for a duel?

I\'d put one right beyween your eyes from the hip, you pathetic
know nothing real piece of shit.

Childish and primitive respond.

The word is \"response\".

Go take that remedial English course, putz.

Confused... <https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/putz>

You fit the \"ineffectual\" part just fine.
 
R

Rick C

Guest
On Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 5:45:00 PM UTC-4, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
Ed Lee <edward....@gmail.com> wrote in
news:d940f6da-4f68-431c...@googlegroups.com:
On Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 12:00:47 PM UTC-8,
DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
Ed Lee <edward.sh...@gmail.com> wrote in news:88e98142-8239-
45ff-9775-0...@googlegroups.com:
He can\'t handle the real data.
Can you handle a fast moving hunk of lead?

How about we go out in the morning for a duel?

I\'d put one right beyween your eyes from the hip, you pathetic
know nothing real piece of shit.

Childish and primitive respond.

The word is \"response\".

Go take that remedial English course, putz.

Confused... <https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/putz

You fit the \"ineffectual\" part just fine.

Like most people in sed, Ed doesn\'t take you seriously. You seldom say anything worth listening to. You make silly and superfluous attacks like this stupid example. You call others, \"child\" and act like one yourself. Why don\'t you grow up and stop being so silly?

I guess that\'s just not going to happen. Can you at least play quietly in the corner and stop disturbing the adults?

--

Rick C.

-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
S

server

Guest
Rick C <gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote in
news:4871eb80-3a73-4b7a-a9dc-c90fe414e307n@googlegroups.com:

On Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 5:45:00 PM UTC-4,
DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
Ed Lee <edward....@gmail.com> wrote in
news:d940f6da-4f68-431c...@googlegroups.com:
On Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 12:00:47 PM UTC-8,
DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
Ed Lee <edward.sh...@gmail.com> wrote in news:88e98142-8239-
45ff-9775-0...@googlegroups.com:
He can\'t handle the real data.
Can you handle a fast moving hunk of lead?

How about we go out in the morning for a duel?

I\'d put one right beyween your eyes from the hip, you pathetic
know nothing real piece of shit.

Childish and primitive respond.

The word is \"response\".

Go take that remedial English course, putz.

Confused... <https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/putz

You fit the \"ineffectual\" part just fine.

Like most people in sed, Ed doesn\'t take you seriously.

Like I give a fat flying fuck what \"Ed\" thinks.

You
seldom say anything worth listening to.

As if your opinion means anything. And no I do not give a fat
flying fuck what a putz like you says, when you waiver from something
bordering on intelligent conversation to this insulting childish
horseshit, you can stick it up your ass and spin on it, child.


You make silly and
superfluous attacks like this stupid example. You call others,
\"child\" and act like one yourself. Why don\'t you grow up and stop
being so silly?

Stop spouting your inane zero reality psych evals.
I guess that\'s just not going to happen. Can you at least play
quietly in the corner and stop disturbing the adults?
And there you go with that childish utter stupidity yet again.

Fuck you, childish punk fuck. You have the mental age of a ten
year old. My fingernail clippings have more on the ball than you do
or ever will.
 
R

Rick C

Guest
On Thursday, January 27, 2022 at 12:56:36 PM UTC-4, DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
Rick C <gnuarm.del...@gmail.com> wrote in
news:4871eb80-3a73-4b7a...@googlegroups.com:
On Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 5:45:00 PM UTC-4,
DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
Ed Lee <edward....@gmail.com> wrote in
news:d940f6da-4f68-431c...@googlegroups.com:
On Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 12:00:47 PM UTC-8,
DecadentLinux...@decadence.org wrote:
Ed Lee <edward.sh...@gmail.com> wrote in news:88e98142-8239-
45ff-9775-0...@googlegroups.com:
He can\'t handle the real data.
Can you handle a fast moving hunk of lead?

How about we go out in the morning for a duel?

I\'d put one right beyween your eyes from the hip, you pathetic
know nothing real piece of shit.

Childish and primitive respond.

The word is \"response\".

Go take that remedial English course, putz.

Confused... <https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/putz

You fit the \"ineffectual\" part just fine.

Like most people in sed, Ed doesn\'t take you seriously.
Like I give a fat flying fuck what \"Ed\" thinks.
You
seldom say anything worth listening to.
As if your opinion means anything. And no I do not give a fat
flying fuck what a putz like you says, when you waiver from something
bordering on intelligent conversation to this insulting childish
horseshit, you can stick it up your ass and spin on it, child.
You make silly and
superfluous attacks like this stupid example. You call others,
\"child\" and act like one yourself. Why don\'t you grow up and stop
being so silly?
Stop spouting your inane zero reality psych evals.

I guess that\'s just not going to happen. Can you at least play
quietly in the corner and stop disturbing the adults?
And there you go with that childish utter stupidity yet again.

Fuck you, childish punk fuck. You have the mental age of a ten
year old. My fingernail clippings have more on the ball than you do
or ever will.

Going all Phil on us, huh?

You two actually have a lot in common.

--

Rick C.

+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
L

legg

Guest
On Wed, 26 Jan 2022 10:55:35 -0800, John Larkin
<jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:

On Wed, 26 Jan 2022 08:55:03 -0500, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 25 Jan 2022 21:28:42 -0800 (PST), Rick C
gnuarm.deletethisbit@gmail.com> wrote:

There does seem to be a pattern of the omicron variant of covid rising in infection rates very rapidly, then peaking and falling off. The drop does not seem to be as rapid and several countries have seen it drop some and plateau.

I\'m surprised by this as I don\'t think it can be explained by changes in behavior. I spend time in Virginia and Puerto Rico where the infection is following roughly the same pattern.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/puerto-rico-covid-cases.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/virginia-covid-cases.html

(you may find a pay wall, I seem to be able to work around it by starting at the top and clicking through to reach the states)

However, I see Puerto Rico taking the mask thing very much more seriously. They do congregate in mostly open air bars and restaurants (without masks), but otherwise not a lot of exposure.

In Virginia it seems well over half the people in public are ignoring the mask advice and this has not changed as the infection numbers has risen.

So what could be a factor that results in a highly infectious strain rising in rates so rapidly, only to peak and turn around in a short time, well before a significant number of people are infected?

I read that the FDA has pulled the emergency approval for some of the antibody treatments since they are not effective against the omicron strain. So that their use should not be a factor.

Any thoughts?

If positive detection rates are >20%, it doesn\'t take very long
before everyone has it, even those employing serious precautions.

Low case fatality rates ( 0.2 to 0.3%) are unlikely to be achievable
in elderly or immuno-compromised populations, even after vaccination.

It\'s those numbers that need watching.

Testing figures in countries with high test capacity are more likely
to give accurate test positivity rates.

RL

And huge, distorted positive case counts.

Counts are irrelevent. It\'s ppm that\'s the indicator.

US fatalities are above 5ppm/day - as bad as the first
wave in 2020, but not as bad as the one that occured
during the presidenrial election, pre-vax.

RL
 
R

Rick C

Guest
On Friday, January 28, 2022 at 9:39:40 AM UTC-4, legg wrote:
On Wed, 26 Jan 2022 10:55:35 -0800, John Larkin
jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:

On Wed, 26 Jan 2022 08:55:03 -0500, legg <le...@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 25 Jan 2022 21:28:42 -0800 (PST), Rick C
gnuarm.del...@gmail.com> wrote:

There does seem to be a pattern of the omicron variant of covid rising in infection rates very rapidly, then peaking and falling off. The drop does not seem to be as rapid and several countries have seen it drop some and plateau.

I\'m surprised by this as I don\'t think it can be explained by changes in behavior. I spend time in Virginia and Puerto Rico where the infection is following roughly the same pattern.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/puerto-rico-covid-cases.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/virginia-covid-cases.html

(you may find a pay wall, I seem to be able to work around it by starting at the top and clicking through to reach the states)

However, I see Puerto Rico taking the mask thing very much more seriously. They do congregate in mostly open air bars and restaurants (without masks), but otherwise not a lot of exposure.

In Virginia it seems well over half the people in public are ignoring the mask advice and this has not changed as the infection numbers has risen..

So what could be a factor that results in a highly infectious strain rising in rates so rapidly, only to peak and turn around in a short time, well before a significant number of people are infected?

I read that the FDA has pulled the emergency approval for some of the antibody treatments since they are not effective against the omicron strain.. So that their use should not be a factor.

Any thoughts?

If positive detection rates are >20%, it doesn\'t take very long
before everyone has it, even those employing serious precautions.

Low case fatality rates ( 0.2 to 0.3%) are unlikely to be achievable
in elderly or immuno-compromised populations, even after vaccination.

It\'s those numbers that need watching.

Testing figures in countries with high test capacity are more likely
to give accurate test positivity rates.

RL

And huge, distorted positive case counts.
Counts are irrelevent. It\'s ppm that\'s the indicator.

US fatalities are above 5ppm/day - as bad as the first
wave in 2020, but not as bad as the one that occured
during the presidenrial election, pre-vax.

The ppm number may be the more relevant number if comparing different population centers, but while comparing the same population at different times the count is sufficient and essentially the same thing. At least until the pandemic starts killing enough people that it reduces the size of the population significantly.

Yeah, it looks like the death rate will be increasing for a bit longer though.

This makes me wonder about the rate of infection from strains other than omicron. Until the rates of infection get large enough to impact the number of available hosts, viral strains do not compete. I would love to see a curve of US infections that excludes the omicron strain or any similar strains allowing view of delta and the earlier strains so the progression of non-omicron strains can be compared.

I think it would provide useful insight to see if there is indeed a human response to the pandemic when a new strain spreads. It may result in more measures to not spread the disease so that the earlier strains have lower infection rates while the new strain proceeds to grow until the measures are effective enough to lower that. I can\'t think of another reason why the omicron variant would be reversing so quickly. But I have my doubts as I don\'t see where many restrictions have been enacted where I spend time.

--

Rick C.

++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
 
E

Ed Lee

Guest
On Friday, January 28, 2022 at 10:42:16 AM UTC-8, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
On Friday, January 28, 2022 at 9:39:40 AM UTC-4, legg wrote:
On Wed, 26 Jan 2022 10:55:35 -0800, John Larkin
jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:

On Wed, 26 Jan 2022 08:55:03 -0500, legg <le...@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

On Tue, 25 Jan 2022 21:28:42 -0800 (PST), Rick C
gnuarm.del...@gmail.com> wrote:

There does seem to be a pattern of the omicron variant of covid rising in infection rates very rapidly, then peaking and falling off. The drop does not seem to be as rapid and several countries have seen it drop some and plateau.

I\'m surprised by this as I don\'t think it can be explained by changes in behavior. I spend time in Virginia and Puerto Rico where the infection is following roughly the same pattern.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/puerto-rico-covid-cases.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/virginia-covid-cases.html

(you may find a pay wall, I seem to be able to work around it by starting at the top and clicking through to reach the states)

However, I see Puerto Rico taking the mask thing very much more seriously. They do congregate in mostly open air bars and restaurants (without masks), but otherwise not a lot of exposure.

In Virginia it seems well over half the people in public are ignoring the mask advice and this has not changed as the infection numbers has risen.

So what could be a factor that results in a highly infectious strain rising in rates so rapidly, only to peak and turn around in a short time, well before a significant number of people are infected?

I read that the FDA has pulled the emergency approval for some of the antibody treatments since they are not effective against the omicron strain. So that their use should not be a factor.

Any thoughts?

If positive detection rates are >20%, it doesn\'t take very long
before everyone has it, even those employing serious precautions.

Low case fatality rates ( 0.2 to 0.3%) are unlikely to be achievable
in elderly or immuno-compromised populations, even after vaccination.

It\'s those numbers that need watching.

Testing figures in countries with high test capacity are more likely
to give accurate test positivity rates.

RL

And huge, distorted positive case counts.
Counts are irrelevent. It\'s ppm that\'s the indicator.

US fatalities are above 5ppm/day - as bad as the first
wave in 2020, but not as bad as the one that occured
during the presidenrial election, pre-vax.
The ppm number may be the more relevant number if comparing different population centers, but while comparing the same population at different times the count is sufficient and essentially the same thing. At least until the pandemic starts killing enough people that it reduces the size of the population significantly.

Yeah, it looks like the death rate will be increasing for a bit longer though.

This makes me wonder about the rate of infection from strains other than omicron. Until the rates of infection get large enough to impact the number of available hosts, viral strains do not compete. I would love to see a curve of US infections that excludes the omicron strain or any similar strains allowing view of delta and the earlier strains so the progression of non-omicron strains can be compared.

I think it would provide useful insight to see if there is indeed a human response to the pandemic when a new strain spreads. It may result in more measures to not spread the disease so that the earlier strains have lower infection rates while the new strain proceeds to grow until the measures are effective enough to lower that. I can\'t think of another reason why the omicron variant would be reversing so quickly. But I have my doubts as I don\'t see where many restrictions have been enacted where I spend time.

Yes, i am watching closely how the two strains are coexisting. During the Delta wave, Xi (D614G) was fairly constant, and almost recovering in Nov, while Delta disappeared. If Omicron can exhaust Xi, by using up all the fuel, perhaps the end is in-sight.

CDC claims Omicron is 99.9%. I am not ready to confirm it yet. According to latest data, Omicron is close to 85%, but Xi is still around 11%.
 

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