Coronary Mass Ejections control 1-year Short Term Climate Changes...

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Coronary Mass Ejections control 1-year Short Term Climate Changes

definition:
Coronary Mass Ejection is subset of Coronal Mass Ejections,
directly targeting the Earth

subjects to study:


Aurora Borealis (Northern Lights)
Weather.gov > Sioux Falls, SD > Aurora Borealis (Northern Lights)

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The Aurora Borealis (commonly referred to as the Northern Lights) are the result of interactions between the Sun and Earth\'s outer atmosphere. The Aurora Australis is the southern hemisphere counterpart to the Aurora Borealis.

What Causes the Aurora? The Sun emits electrically-charged particles called ions, which correspondingly move away from the Sun in a stream of plasma (ionized gas) known as the solar wind. As the plasma comes in contact with the Earth\'s magnetic field, the ions will be agitated into moving around the Earth. Some of the ions become trapped and will consequently interact with the Earth\'s ionosphere (an average of 60-80 miles above the surface), causing the ions to glow. This is the same principal as how a neon sign lights up. As electrons pass through the neon tubing, they glow, thus producing the light in a neon sign.

The Aurora are constantly changing and moving in streams of light or curtains, because the process of how the Sun\'s ionized gas interacts with the Earth\'s magnetic field is very dynamic. Although harmless to life on Earth, the Aurora can cause power disruptions in satellite communications and in radio/TV broadcasts.

Aurora Displays: The northern latitudes (or southern latitudes in the southern hemisphere) see the greatest occurrence of the Aurora. In the northern hemisphere, there is a 50% or greater chance of seeing Aurora roughly between the latitudes of 55 to 80 degrees north. This means in general that in these latitudes, the Aurora should occur on at least half of the nights throughout the year. However, this also varies. Aurora displays usually increase during times of the solar maximum. They also usually show a greater frequency during the winter months, where the nights are longer and the skies generally void of haze. Although most common in the northern latitudes, the Aurora have been occasionally seen south of 35 degrees north latitude which encompasses the far southern United States. Displays this far south can occur when a large coronal mass ejection from the Sun creates a huge geomagnetic storm in the Earth\'s outer atmosphere. This occurred on the night of November 5th and 6th, 2001 where amazing Aurora displays were seen as far south as Texas, Arizona and San Diego, CA

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/aurora


Coronal Mass Ejections

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are large expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun’s corona. They can eject billions of tons of coronal material and carry an embedded magnetic field (frozen in flux) that is stronger than the background solar wind interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength. CMEs travel outward from the Sun at speeds ranging from slower than 250 kilometers per second (km/s) to as fast as near 3000 km/s. The fastest Earth-directed CMEs can reach our planet in as little as 15-18 hours. Slower CMEs can take several days to arrive. They expand in size as they propagate away from the Sun and larger CMEs can reach a size comprising nearly a quarter of the space between Earth and the Sun by the time it reaches our planet.

The more explosive CMEs generally begin when highly twisted magnetic field structures (flux ropes) contained in the Sun’s lower corona become too stressed and realign into a less tense configuration – a process called magnetic reconnection. This can result in the sudden release of electromagnetic energy in the form of a solar flare; which typically accompanies the explosive acceleration of plasma away from the Sun – the CME. These types of CMEs usually take place from areas of the Sun with localized fields of strong and stressed magnetic flux; such as active regions associated with sunspot groups. CMEs can also occur from locations where relatively cool and denser plasma is trapped and suspended by magnetic flux extending up to the inner corona - filaments and prominences. When these flux ropes reconfigure, the denser filament or prominence can collapse back to the solar surface and be quietly reabsorbed, or a CME may result. CMEs travelling faster than the background solar wind speed can generate a shock wave. These shock waves can accelerate charged particles ahead of them – causing increased radiation storm potential or intensity.

Important CME parameters used in analysis are size, speed, and direction. These properties are inferred from orbital satellites’ coronagraph imagery by SWPC forecasters to determine any Earth-impact likelihood. The NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) carries a coronagraph – known as the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). This instrument has two ranges for optical imaging of the Sun’s corona: C2 (covers distance range of 1.5 to 6 solar radii) and C3 (range of 3 to 32 solar radii). The LASCO instrument is currently the primary means used by forecasters to analyze and categorize CMEs; however another coronagraph is on the NASA STEREO-A spacecraft as an additional source.

Imminent CME arrival is first observed by the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite, located at the L1 orbital area. Sudden increases in density, total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength, and solar wind speed at the DSCOVR spacecraft indicate arrival of the CME-associated interplanetary shock ahead of the magnetic cloud. This can often provide 15 to 60 minutes advanced warning of shock arrival at Earth – and any possible sudden impulse or sudden storm commencement; as registered by Earth-based magnetometers.

Important aspects of an arriving CME and its likelihood for causing more intense geomagnetic storming include the strength and direction of the IMF beginning with shock arrival, followed by arrival and passage of the plasma cloud and frozen-in-flux magnetic field. More intense levels of geomagnetic storming are favored when the CME enhanced IMF becomes more pronounced and prolonged in a south-directed orientation. Some CMEs show predominantly one direction of the magnetic field during its passage, while most exhibit changing field directions as the CME passes over Earth. Generally, CMEs that impact Earth’s magnetosphere will at some point have an IMF orientation that favors generation of geomagnetic storming. Geomagnetic storms are classified using a five-level NOAA Space Weather Scale. SWPC forecasters discuss analysis and geomagnetic storm potential of CMEs in the forecast discussion and predict levels of geomagnetic storming in the 3-day forecast.

*Images courtesy of NASA and the SOHO and STEREO missions

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections


3. Tracking coronary mass ejections

Coronal Mass Ejections - NASA/Marshall Solar Physics
https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/CMEs.shtml

Coronal mass ejections (or CMEs) are huge bubbles of gas threaded with magnetic field lines that are ejected from the Sun over the course of several hours. Although the Sun\'s corona has been observed during total eclipses of …
AUTOMATIC DETECTION AND TRACKING OF CORONAL MASS …
https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22037009-automatic...

20.06.2012 · Studying coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in coronagraph data can be challenging due to their diffuse structure and transient nature, and user-specific biases may be introduced through visual inspection of the images. The large amount of data available from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory ...
New Tool Could Track Space Weather 24 Hours Before Reaching …
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/new-tool...

Jun 9, 2015 New Tool Could Track Space Weather 24 Hours Before Reaching Earth A giant cloud of solar particles, called a coronal mass ejection, explodes off the sun on Jan. 7, 2014, as seen in the light halo to the lower right in this image captured by ESA/NASA\'s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory.
Coronal mass ejection - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection

OverviewPhysical propertiesCauseImpact on EarthAssociated phenomenaHistoryStellar coronal mass ejectionsSee also

A coronal mass ejection (CME) is a significant release of plasma and accompanying magnetic field from the Sun\'s corona into the solar wind. CMEs are often associated with solar flares and other forms of solar activity, but a broadly accepted theoretical understanding of these relationships has not been established.

---

Coronal Mass Ejections disrupt the flow of the solar wind and produce disturbances that strike the Earth with sometimes catastrophic results. The Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) has observed a large number of CMEs. The event of April 7th, 1997 is shown to the left (click on the image for the animation). It produced a \"halo event\" in which the entire Sun appeared to be surrounded by the CME. Halo events are produced by CMEs that are directed toward the Earth. As they loom larger and larger they appear to envelope the Sun itself.

Coronal mass ejections are often associated with solar flares and prominence eruptions but they can also occur in the absence of either of these processes. The frequency of CMEs varies with the sunspot cycle. At solar minimum we observe about one CME a week. Near solar maximum we observe an average of 2 to 3 CMEs per day (3.4 MB MPEG movie from the SOHO/LASCO instrument showing a month of CMEs from 1998).

https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/CMEs.shtml


AUTOMATIC DETECTION AND TRACKING OF CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS. II. MULTISCALE FILTERING OF CORONAGRAPH IMAGES

https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22037009-automatic-detection-tracking-coronal-mass-ejections-ii-multiscale-filtering-coronagraph-images

New Tool Could Track Space Weather 24 Hours Before Reaching Earth

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/new-tool-could-track-space-weather-24-hours-before-reaching-earth
 
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Guest
On Friday, 5 August 2022 at 00:29:20 UTC+2, a a wrote:
Coronary Mass Ejections control 1-year Short Term Climate Changes

definition:
Coronary Mass Ejection is subset of Coronal Mass Ejections,
directly targeting the Earth

subjects to study:


Aurora Borealis (Northern Lights)
Weather.gov > Sioux Falls, SD > Aurora Borealis (Northern Lights)

Current Hazards
Current Conditions
Radar
Forecasts
Rivers and Lakes
Climate and Past Weather
Local Programs

The Aurora Borealis (commonly referred to as the Northern Lights) are the result of interactions between the Sun and Earth\'s outer atmosphere. The Aurora Australis is the southern hemisphere counterpart to the Aurora Borealis.

What Causes the Aurora? The Sun emits electrically-charged particles called ions, which correspondingly move away from the Sun in a stream of plasma (ionized gas) known as the solar wind. As the plasma comes in contact with the Earth\'s magnetic field, the ions will be agitated into moving around the Earth. Some of the ions become trapped and will consequently interact with the Earth\'s ionosphere (an average of 60-80 miles above the surface), causing the ions to glow. This is the same principal as how a neon sign lights up. As electrons pass through the neon tubing, they glow, thus producing the light in a neon sign.

The Aurora are constantly changing and moving in streams of light or curtains, because the process of how the Sun\'s ionized gas interacts with the Earth\'s magnetic field is very dynamic. Although harmless to life on Earth, the Aurora can cause power disruptions in satellite communications and in radio/TV broadcasts.

Aurora Displays: The northern latitudes (or southern latitudes in the southern hemisphere) see the greatest occurrence of the Aurora. In the northern hemisphere, there is a 50% or greater chance of seeing Aurora roughly between the latitudes of 55 to 80 degrees north. This means in general that in these latitudes, the Aurora should occur on at least half of the nights throughout the year. However, this also varies. Aurora displays usually increase during times of the solar maximum. They also usually show a greater frequency during the winter months, where the nights are longer and the skies generally void of haze. Although most common in the northern latitudes, the Aurora have been occasionally seen south of 35 degrees north latitude which encompasses the far southern United States. Displays this far south can occur when a large coronal mass ejection from the Sun creates a huge geomagnetic storm in the Earth\'s outer atmosphere. This occurred on the night of November 5th and 6th, 2001 where amazing Aurora displays were seen as far south as Texas, Arizona and San Diego, CA

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/aurora


Coronal Mass Ejections

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are large expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun’s corona. They can eject billions of tons of coronal material and carry an embedded magnetic field (frozen in flux) that is stronger than the background solar wind interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength. CMEs travel outward from the Sun at speeds ranging from slower than 250 kilometers per second (km/s) to as fast as near 3000 km/s. The fastest Earth-directed CMEs can reach our planet in as little as 15-18 hours. Slower CMEs can take several days to arrive. They expand in size as they propagate away from the Sun and larger CMEs can reach a size comprising nearly a quarter of the space between Earth and the Sun by the time it reaches our planet.

The more explosive CMEs generally begin when highly twisted magnetic field structures (flux ropes) contained in the Sun’s lower corona become too stressed and realign into a less tense configuration – a process called magnetic reconnection. This can result in the sudden release of electromagnetic energy in the form of a solar flare; which typically accompanies the explosive acceleration of plasma away from the Sun – the CME. These types of CMEs usually take place from areas of the Sun with localized fields of strong and stressed magnetic flux; such as active regions associated with sunspot groups. CMEs can also occur from locations where relatively cool and denser plasma is trapped and suspended by magnetic flux extending up to the inner corona - filaments and prominences. When these flux ropes reconfigure, the denser filament or prominence can collapse back to the solar surface and be quietly reabsorbed, or a CME may result. CMEs travelling faster than the background solar wind speed can generate a shock wave. These shock waves can accelerate charged particles ahead of them – causing increased radiation storm potential or intensity.

Important CME parameters used in analysis are size, speed, and direction. These properties are inferred from orbital satellites’ coronagraph imagery by SWPC forecasters to determine any Earth-impact likelihood. The NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) carries a coronagraph – known as the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). This instrument has two ranges for optical imaging of the Sun’s corona: C2 (covers distance range of 1.5 to 6 solar radii) and C3 (range of 3 to 32 solar radii). The LASCO instrument is currently the primary means used by forecasters to analyze and categorize CMEs; however another coronagraph is on the NASA STEREO-A spacecraft as an additional source.

Imminent CME arrival is first observed by the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite, located at the L1 orbital area. Sudden increases in density, total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength, and solar wind speed at the DSCOVR spacecraft indicate arrival of the CME-associated interplanetary shock ahead of the magnetic cloud. This can often provide 15 to 60 minutes advanced warning of shock arrival at Earth – and any possible sudden impulse or sudden storm commencement; as registered by Earth-based magnetometers.

Important aspects of an arriving CME and its likelihood for causing more intense geomagnetic storming include the strength and direction of the IMF beginning with shock arrival, followed by arrival and passage of the plasma cloud and frozen-in-flux magnetic field. More intense levels of geomagnetic storming are favored when the CME enhanced IMF becomes more pronounced and prolonged in a south-directed orientation. Some CMEs show predominantly one direction of the magnetic field during its passage, while most exhibit changing field directions as the CME passes over Earth. Generally, CMEs that impact Earth’s magnetosphere will at some point have an IMF orientation that favors generation of geomagnetic storming. Geomagnetic storms are classified using a five-level NOAA Space Weather Scale. SWPC forecasters discuss analysis and geomagnetic storm potential of CMEs in the forecast discussion and predict levels of geomagnetic storming in the 3-day forecast.

*Images courtesy of NASA and the SOHO and STEREO missions

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections


3. Tracking coronary mass ejections

Coronal Mass Ejections - NASA/Marshall Solar Physics
https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/CMEs.shtml

Coronal mass ejections (or CMEs) are huge bubbles of gas threaded with magnetic field lines that are ejected from the Sun over the course of several hours. Although the Sun\'s corona has been observed during total eclipses of …
AUTOMATIC DETECTION AND TRACKING OF CORONAL MASS …
https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22037009-automatic...

20.06.2012 · Studying coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in coronagraph data can be challenging due to their diffuse structure and transient nature, and user-specific biases may be introduced through visual inspection of the images. The large amount of data available from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory ...
New Tool Could Track Space Weather 24 Hours Before Reaching …
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/new-tool...

Jun 9, 2015 New Tool Could Track Space Weather 24 Hours Before Reaching Earth A giant cloud of solar particles, called a coronal mass ejection, explodes off the sun on Jan. 7, 2014, as seen in the light halo to the lower right in this image captured by ESA/NASA\'s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory..
Coronal mass ejection - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection

OverviewPhysical propertiesCauseImpact on EarthAssociated phenomenaHistoryStellar coronal mass ejectionsSee also

A coronal mass ejection (CME) is a significant release of plasma and accompanying magnetic field from the Sun\'s corona into the solar wind. CMEs are often associated with solar flares and other forms of solar activity, but a broadly accepted theoretical understanding of these relationships has not been established.

---

Coronal Mass Ejections disrupt the flow of the solar wind and produce disturbances that strike the Earth with sometimes catastrophic results. The Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) has observed a large number of CMEs. The event of April 7th, 1997 is shown to the left (click on the image for the animation). It produced a \"halo event\" in which the entire Sun appeared to be surrounded by the CME. Halo events are produced by CMEs that are directed toward the Earth. As they loom larger and larger they appear to envelope the Sun itself.

Coronal mass ejections are often associated with solar flares and prominence eruptions but they can also occur in the absence of either of these processes. The frequency of CMEs varies with the sunspot cycle. At solar minimum we observe about one CME a week. Near solar maximum we observe an average of 2 to 3 CMEs per day (3.4 MB MPEG movie from the SOHO/LASCO instrument showing a month of CMEs from 1998).

https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/CMEs.shtml


AUTOMATIC DETECTION AND TRACKING OF CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS. II. MULTISCALE FILTERING OF CORONAGRAPH IMAGES

https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22037009-automatic-detection-tracking-coronal-mass-ejections-ii-multiscale-filtering-coronagraph-images

New Tool Could Track Space Weather 24 Hours Before Reaching Earth

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/new-tool-could-track-space-weather-24-hours-before-reaching-earth
AUTOMATIC DETECTION AND TRACKING OF CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS. II. MULTISCALE FILTERING OF CORONAGRAPH IMAGES

Full Record Other Related Research

Abstract

Studying coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in coronagraph data can be challenging due to their diffuse structure and transient nature, and user-specific biases may be introduced through visual inspection of the images. The large amount of data available from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO), and future coronagraph missions also makes manual cataloging of CMEs tedious, and so a robust method of detection and analysis is required. This has led to the development of automated CME detection and cataloging packages such as CACTus, SEEDS, and ARTEMIS. Here, we present the development of a new CORIMP (coronal image processing) CME detection and tracking technique that overcomes many of the drawbacks of current catalogs. It works by first employing the dynamic CME separation technique outlined in a companion paper, and then characterizing CME structure via a multiscale edge-detection algorithm. The detections are chained through time to determine the CME kinematics and morphological changes as it propagates across the plane of sky. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated by its application to a selection of SOHO/LASCO and STEREO/SECCHI images, as well as to synthetic coronagraph images created from a model corona with a variety of CMEs. The algorithms described in this article are being applied to the whole LASCO and SECCHI data sets, and a catalog of results will soon be available to the public.


AUTOMATIC DETECTION AND TRACKING OF CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS. II. MULTISCALE FILTERING OF CORONAGRAPH IMAGES

Full Record Other Related Research

Abstract

Studying coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in coronagraph data can be challenging due to their diffuse structure and transient nature, and user-specific biases may be introduced through visual inspection of the images. The large amount of data available from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO), and future coronagraph missions also makes manual cataloging of CMEs tedious, and so a robust method of detection and analysis is required. This has led to the development of automated CME detection and cataloging packages such as CACTus, SEEDS, and ARTEMIS. Here, we present the development of a new CORIMP (coronal image processing) CME detection and tracking technique that overcomes many of the drawbacks of current catalogs. It works by first employing the dynamic CME separation technique outlined in a companion paper, and then characterizing CME structure via a multiscale edge-detection algorithm. The detections are chained through time to determine the CME kinematics and morphological changes as it propagates across the plane of sky. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated by its application to a selection of SOHO/LASCO and STEREO/SECCHI images, as well as to synthetic coronagraph images created from a model corona with a variety of CMEs. The algorithms described in this article are being applied to the whole LASCO and SECCHI data sets, and a catalog of results will soon be available to the public.

https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22037009-automatic-detection-tracking-coronal-mass-ejections-ii-multiscale-filtering-coronagraph-images



New Tool Could Track Space Weather 24 Hours Before Reaching Earth
A coronal mass ejection as captured by SOHO on Jan. 7, 2014.
A giant cloud of solar particles, called a coronal mass ejection, explodes off the sun on Jan. 7, 2014, as seen in the light halo to the lower right in this image captured by ESA/NASA\'s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. By combining such images with data of the eruption closer to the sun\'s surface, scientists have created a new model to better understand how such CMEs evolve as they travel and how they might impact Earth.
Credits: ESA&NASA/SOHO

Our sun is a volatile star: explosions of light, energy and solar materials regularly dot its surface. Sometimes an eruption is so large it hurls magnetized material into space, sending out clouds that can pass by Earth\'s own magnetic fields, where the interactions can affect electronics on satellites, GPS communications or even utility grids on the ground.

The clouds can be large or small. They can be relatively slow or as fast as 3,000 miles per second, but only one component has a strong effect on how much a CME will arrange the magnetic fields in near-Earth space. If they are aligned in the same direction as Earth\'s -- that is, pointing from south to north -- the CME will slide by without much effect. If aligned in the opposite direction, however, Earth\'s magnetic fields can be completely rearranged. Indeed, it has happened that giant, fast moving CMEs have had little effect at Earth, while small ones have caused huge space weather storms, dependent on that one factor of where the magnetic fields point.

But right now we don\'t have much advance notice of how a CME\'s magnetic fields are arranged. We can only measure the fields as the CME passes over satellites close to Earth.

\"What we have now is effectively only a 30 to 60 minute heads up of a CME\'s configuration before it hits Earth\'s magnetosphere,\" said Neel Savani, a space scientist at NASA\'s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.. \"We don\'t have a real time method for measuring or modeling this magnetic field more than an hour before a space weather impact.\"

An SDO sun seen on Jan. 7, 2014 with model field lines.
This image of the sun from January 7, 2014, combines a picture of the sun captured by NASA\'s Solar Dynamics Observatory, or SDO, with a model of the magnetic field lines using data that is also from SDO. A new model based on such data may one day help space weather forecasters better predict how eruptions from the sun will behave at Earth.
Credits: NASA/SDO/LMSAL

Savani described a new model to measure the magnetic field configuration significantly further ahead of time in a paper appearing in Space Weather on June 9, 2015. The model is now undergoing testing, but if it\'s robust, then scientists might finally have a tool to predict a CME\'s magnetic configuration from afar. And that means forecasters could give utility grid and satellite operators a full 24-hour advance warning to protect their systems -- crucial time to protect their assets.

While we have no tools that can observe the magnetic configuration of a CME directly as it is traveling toward us, Savani made use of NASA\'s Solar Dynamics Observatory to observe the magnetic fields of the initial eruption on the sun.

In the past, using such data to predict which direction the CME\'s magnetic fields point has not been very successful. However, Savani realized that earlier attempts simplified the eruptions too much, assuming they came from a single active region -- the magnetically complex spots on the sun that often give rise to solar eruptions. Savani\'s new method is able to incorporate the complex reality of CMEs having foot points in more than one active region.

\"Once you can successfully measure the initial structure of the CME, the next step is to have a good understanding of how it evolves as it travels,\" said Savani.

We have no tools to measure the magnetic fields once a CME has moved away from the sun, but scientists do have ways of watching how the clouds expand, twist and grow as they race into space. Both NASA\'s Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory, or STEREO, and the joint ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, or SOHO, provide these observations using coronagraphs, which can focus in on the CME\'s progress by blocking the bright light of the sun..

By watching how the CME moves and changes in these coronagraphs, Savani\'s model tracks how the initial eruption evolves over time. Ultimately, the model can describe how the CME will be configured as it approaches Earth, and even which parts of the CME will have magnetic fields pointed in which direction.

So far Savani has tested his modeling method on eight different CMEs to show that his model\'s predictions corresponded with what actually happened. He will test even more examples to make sure the model is truly robust. If perfected, such models can be used by the Space Weather Prediction Center at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association to provide alerts and forecasts to industries that require space weather forecasts, such as the military, the airlines and utility companies. But it\'s NASA\'s responsibility – as the research arm of the nation\'s space weather effort – to make sure a model is reliable enough for regular operational use. So Savani is working with the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA Goddard to test his model.

“We’ll test the model against a variety of historical events,” said Antti Pulkkinen, director of the Space Weather Research Center at NASA Goddard. “We’ll also see how well it works on any events we witness over the next year. In the end we’ll be able to provide concrete information about how reliable a prediction tool it is.”

Savani will also work to improve the user interface of his model. The goal is to create an easy-to-use application with standardized input and reliable output. Time will tell if Savani\'s model can help with characterization of CMEs, but if it works, scientists will have an advanced new tool to protect our home planet from the effects of space weather.

For more information about the Solar Dynamics Observatory, visit: www.nasa.gov/sdo


Karen C. Fox
NASA\'s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
Last Updated: Aug 7, 2017
Editor: Holly Zell


https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/new-tool-could-track-space-weather-24-hours-before-reaching-earth
 
A

a a

Guest
On Friday, 5 August 2022 at 00:29:20 UTC+2, a a wrote:
Coronary Mass Ejections control 1-year Short Term Climate Changes

definition:
Coronary Mass Ejection is subset of Coronal Mass Ejections,
directly targeting the Earth

subjects to study:


Aurora Borealis (Northern Lights)
Weather.gov > Sioux Falls, SD > Aurora Borealis (Northern Lights)

Current Hazards
Current Conditions
Radar
Forecasts
Rivers and Lakes
Climate and Past Weather
Local Programs

The Aurora Borealis (commonly referred to as the Northern Lights) are the result of interactions between the Sun and Earth\'s outer atmosphere. The Aurora Australis is the southern hemisphere counterpart to the Aurora Borealis.

What Causes the Aurora? The Sun emits electrically-charged particles called ions, which correspondingly move away from the Sun in a stream of plasma (ionized gas) known as the solar wind. As the plasma comes in contact with the Earth\'s magnetic field, the ions will be agitated into moving around the Earth. Some of the ions become trapped and will consequently interact with the Earth\'s ionosphere (an average of 60-80 miles above the surface), causing the ions to glow. This is the same principal as how a neon sign lights up. As electrons pass through the neon tubing, they glow, thus producing the light in a neon sign.

The Aurora are constantly changing and moving in streams of light or curtains, because the process of how the Sun\'s ionized gas interacts with the Earth\'s magnetic field is very dynamic. Although harmless to life on Earth, the Aurora can cause power disruptions in satellite communications and in radio/TV broadcasts.

Aurora Displays: The northern latitudes (or southern latitudes in the southern hemisphere) see the greatest occurrence of the Aurora. In the northern hemisphere, there is a 50% or greater chance of seeing Aurora roughly between the latitudes of 55 to 80 degrees north. This means in general that in these latitudes, the Aurora should occur on at least half of the nights throughout the year. However, this also varies. Aurora displays usually increase during times of the solar maximum. They also usually show a greater frequency during the winter months, where the nights are longer and the skies generally void of haze. Although most common in the northern latitudes, the Aurora have been occasionally seen south of 35 degrees north latitude which encompasses the far southern United States. Displays this far south can occur when a large coronal mass ejection from the Sun creates a huge geomagnetic storm in the Earth\'s outer atmosphere. This occurred on the night of November 5th and 6th, 2001 where amazing Aurora displays were seen as far south as Texas, Arizona and San Diego, CA

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/aurora


Coronal Mass Ejections

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are large expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun’s corona. They can eject billions of tons of coronal material and carry an embedded magnetic field (frozen in flux) that is stronger than the background solar wind interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength. CMEs travel outward from the Sun at speeds ranging from slower than 250 kilometers per second (km/s) to as fast as near 3000 km/s. The fastest Earth-directed CMEs can reach our planet in as little as 15-18 hours. Slower CMEs can take several days to arrive. They expand in size as they propagate away from the Sun and larger CMEs can reach a size comprising nearly a quarter of the space between Earth and the Sun by the time it reaches our planet.

The more explosive CMEs generally begin when highly twisted magnetic field structures (flux ropes) contained in the Sun’s lower corona become too stressed and realign into a less tense configuration – a process called magnetic reconnection. This can result in the sudden release of electromagnetic energy in the form of a solar flare; which typically accompanies the explosive acceleration of plasma away from the Sun – the CME. These types of CMEs usually take place from areas of the Sun with localized fields of strong and stressed magnetic flux; such as active regions associated with sunspot groups. CMEs can also occur from locations where relatively cool and denser plasma is trapped and suspended by magnetic flux extending up to the inner corona - filaments and prominences. When these flux ropes reconfigure, the denser filament or prominence can collapse back to the solar surface and be quietly reabsorbed, or a CME may result. CMEs travelling faster than the background solar wind speed can generate a shock wave. These shock waves can accelerate charged particles ahead of them – causing increased radiation storm potential or intensity.

Important CME parameters used in analysis are size, speed, and direction. These properties are inferred from orbital satellites’ coronagraph imagery by SWPC forecasters to determine any Earth-impact likelihood. The NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) carries a coronagraph – known as the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). This instrument has two ranges for optical imaging of the Sun’s corona: C2 (covers distance range of 1.5 to 6 solar radii) and C3 (range of 3 to 32 solar radii). The LASCO instrument is currently the primary means used by forecasters to analyze and categorize CMEs; however another coronagraph is on the NASA STEREO-A spacecraft as an additional source.

Imminent CME arrival is first observed by the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite, located at the L1 orbital area. Sudden increases in density, total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength, and solar wind speed at the DSCOVR spacecraft indicate arrival of the CME-associated interplanetary shock ahead of the magnetic cloud. This can often provide 15 to 60 minutes advanced warning of shock arrival at Earth – and any possible sudden impulse or sudden storm commencement; as registered by Earth-based magnetometers.

Important aspects of an arriving CME and its likelihood for causing more intense geomagnetic storming include the strength and direction of the IMF beginning with shock arrival, followed by arrival and passage of the plasma cloud and frozen-in-flux magnetic field. More intense levels of geomagnetic storming are favored when the CME enhanced IMF becomes more pronounced and prolonged in a south-directed orientation. Some CMEs show predominantly one direction of the magnetic field during its passage, while most exhibit changing field directions as the CME passes over Earth. Generally, CMEs that impact Earth’s magnetosphere will at some point have an IMF orientation that favors generation of geomagnetic storming. Geomagnetic storms are classified using a five-level NOAA Space Weather Scale. SWPC forecasters discuss analysis and geomagnetic storm potential of CMEs in the forecast discussion and predict levels of geomagnetic storming in the 3-day forecast.

*Images courtesy of NASA and the SOHO and STEREO missions

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections


3. Tracking coronary mass ejections

Coronal Mass Ejections - NASA/Marshall Solar Physics
https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/CMEs.shtml

Coronal mass ejections (or CMEs) are huge bubbles of gas threaded with magnetic field lines that are ejected from the Sun over the course of several hours. Although the Sun\'s corona has been observed during total eclipses of …
AUTOMATIC DETECTION AND TRACKING OF CORONAL MASS …
https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22037009-automatic...

20.06.2012 · Studying coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in coronagraph data can be challenging due to their diffuse structure and transient nature, and user-specific biases may be introduced through visual inspection of the images. The large amount of data available from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory ...
New Tool Could Track Space Weather 24 Hours Before Reaching …
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/new-tool...

Jun 9, 2015 New Tool Could Track Space Weather 24 Hours Before Reaching Earth A giant cloud of solar particles, called a coronal mass ejection, explodes off the sun on Jan. 7, 2014, as seen in the light halo to the lower right in this image captured by ESA/NASA\'s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory..
Coronal mass ejection - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection

OverviewPhysical propertiesCauseImpact on EarthAssociated phenomenaHistoryStellar coronal mass ejectionsSee also

A coronal mass ejection (CME) is a significant release of plasma and accompanying magnetic field from the Sun\'s corona into the solar wind. CMEs are often associated with solar flares and other forms of solar activity, but a broadly accepted theoretical understanding of these relationships has not been established.

---

Coronal Mass Ejections disrupt the flow of the solar wind and produce disturbances that strike the Earth with sometimes catastrophic results. The Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) has observed a large number of CMEs. The event of April 7th, 1997 is shown to the left (click on the image for the animation). It produced a \"halo event\" in which the entire Sun appeared to be surrounded by the CME. Halo events are produced by CMEs that are directed toward the Earth. As they loom larger and larger they appear to envelope the Sun itself.

Coronal mass ejections are often associated with solar flares and prominence eruptions but they can also occur in the absence of either of these processes. The frequency of CMEs varies with the sunspot cycle. At solar minimum we observe about one CME a week. Near solar maximum we observe an average of 2 to 3 CMEs per day (3.4 MB MPEG movie from the SOHO/LASCO instrument showing a month of CMEs from 1998).

https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/CMEs.shtml


AUTOMATIC DETECTION AND TRACKING OF CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS. II. MULTISCALE FILTERING OF CORONAGRAPH IMAGES

https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22037009-automatic-detection-tracking-coronal-mass-ejections-ii-multiscale-filtering-coronagraph-images

New Tool Could Track Space Weather 24 Hours Before Reaching Earth

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/new-tool-could-track-space-weather-24-hours-before-reaching-earth
National Weather Service logo

Space Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The Sun video
Coronary Mass Ejections video
The Aurora video

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

key web links
key liunks to animations
 
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Guest
On Friday, 5 August 2022 at 00:37:05 UTC+2, a a wrote:
On Friday, 5 August 2022 at 00:29:20 UTC+2, a a wrote:
Coronary Mass Ejections control 1-year Short Term Climate Changes

definition:
Coronary Mass Ejection is subset of Coronal Mass Ejections,
directly targeting the Earth

subjects to study:


Aurora Borealis (Northern Lights)
Weather.gov > Sioux Falls, SD > Aurora Borealis (Northern Lights)

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The Aurora Borealis (commonly referred to as the Northern Lights) are the result of interactions between the Sun and Earth\'s outer atmosphere. The Aurora Australis is the southern hemisphere counterpart to the Aurora Borealis.

What Causes the Aurora? The Sun emits electrically-charged particles called ions, which correspondingly move away from the Sun in a stream of plasma (ionized gas) known as the solar wind. As the plasma comes in contact with the Earth\'s magnetic field, the ions will be agitated into moving around the Earth. Some of the ions become trapped and will consequently interact with the Earth\'s ionosphere (an average of 60-80 miles above the surface), causing the ions to glow. This is the same principal as how a neon sign lights up. As electrons pass through the neon tubing, they glow, thus producing the light in a neon sign.

The Aurora are constantly changing and moving in streams of light or curtains, because the process of how the Sun\'s ionized gas interacts with the Earth\'s magnetic field is very dynamic. Although harmless to life on Earth, the Aurora can cause power disruptions in satellite communications and in radio/TV broadcasts.

Aurora Displays: The northern latitudes (or southern latitudes in the southern hemisphere) see the greatest occurrence of the Aurora. In the northern hemisphere, there is a 50% or greater chance of seeing Aurora roughly between the latitudes of 55 to 80 degrees north. This means in general that in these latitudes, the Aurora should occur on at least half of the nights throughout the year. However, this also varies. Aurora displays usually increase during times of the solar maximum. They also usually show a greater frequency during the winter months, where the nights are longer and the skies generally void of haze. Although most common in the northern latitudes, the Aurora have been occasionally seen south of 35 degrees north latitude which encompasses the far southern United States. Displays this far south can occur when a large coronal mass ejection from the Sun creates a huge geomagnetic storm in the Earth\'s outer atmosphere. This occurred on the night of November 5th and 6th, 2001 where amazing Aurora displays were seen as far south as Texas, Arizona and San Diego, CA

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/aurora


Coronal Mass Ejections

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are large expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun’s corona. They can eject billions of tons of coronal material and carry an embedded magnetic field (frozen in flux) that is stronger than the background solar wind interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength. CMEs travel outward from the Sun at speeds ranging from slower than 250 kilometers per second (km/s) to as fast as near 3000 km/s. The fastest Earth-directed CMEs can reach our planet in as little as 15-18 hours. Slower CMEs can take several days to arrive. They expand in size as they propagate away from the Sun and larger CMEs can reach a size comprising nearly a quarter of the space between Earth and the Sun by the time it reaches our planet.

The more explosive CMEs generally begin when highly twisted magnetic field structures (flux ropes) contained in the Sun’s lower corona become too stressed and realign into a less tense configuration – a process called magnetic reconnection. This can result in the sudden release of electromagnetic energy in the form of a solar flare; which typically accompanies the explosive acceleration of plasma away from the Sun – the CME. These types of CMEs usually take place from areas of the Sun with localized fields of strong and stressed magnetic flux; such as active regions associated with sunspot groups. CMEs can also occur from locations where relatively cool and denser plasma is trapped and suspended by magnetic flux extending up to the inner corona - filaments and prominences. When these flux ropes reconfigure, the denser filament or prominence can collapse back to the solar surface and be quietly reabsorbed, or a CME may result. CMEs travelling faster than the background solar wind speed can generate a shock wave. These shock waves can accelerate charged particles ahead of them – causing increased radiation storm potential or intensity.

Important CME parameters used in analysis are size, speed, and direction. These properties are inferred from orbital satellites’ coronagraph imagery by SWPC forecasters to determine any Earth-impact likelihood. The NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) carries a coronagraph – known as the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). This instrument has two ranges for optical imaging of the Sun’s corona: C2 (covers distance range of 1.5 to 6 solar radii) and C3 (range of 3 to 32 solar radii). The LASCO instrument is currently the primary means used by forecasters to analyze and categorize CMEs; however another coronagraph is on the NASA STEREO-A spacecraft as an additional source.

Imminent CME arrival is first observed by the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite, located at the L1 orbital area. Sudden increases in density, total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength, and solar wind speed at the DSCOVR spacecraft indicate arrival of the CME-associated interplanetary shock ahead of the magnetic cloud. This can often provide 15 to 60 minutes advanced warning of shock arrival at Earth – and any possible sudden impulse or sudden storm commencement; as registered by Earth-based magnetometers.

Important aspects of an arriving CME and its likelihood for causing more intense geomagnetic storming include the strength and direction of the IMF beginning with shock arrival, followed by arrival and passage of the plasma cloud and frozen-in-flux magnetic field. More intense levels of geomagnetic storming are favored when the CME enhanced IMF becomes more pronounced and prolonged in a south-directed orientation. Some CMEs show predominantly one direction of the magnetic field during its passage, while most exhibit changing field directions as the CME passes over Earth. Generally, CMEs that impact Earth’s magnetosphere will at some point have an IMF orientation that favors generation of geomagnetic storming. Geomagnetic storms are classified using a five-level NOAA Space Weather Scale. SWPC forecasters discuss analysis and geomagnetic storm potential of CMEs in the forecast discussion and predict levels of geomagnetic storming in the 3-day forecast..

*Images courtesy of NASA and the SOHO and STEREO missions

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections


3. Tracking coronary mass ejections

Coronal Mass Ejections - NASA/Marshall Solar Physics
https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/CMEs.shtml

Coronal mass ejections (or CMEs) are huge bubbles of gas threaded with magnetic field lines that are ejected from the Sun over the course of several hours. Although the Sun\'s corona has been observed during total eclipses of …
AUTOMATIC DETECTION AND TRACKING OF CORONAL MASS …
https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22037009-automatic...

20.06.2012 · Studying coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in coronagraph data can be challenging due to their diffuse structure and transient nature, and user-specific biases may be introduced through visual inspection of the images. The large amount of data available from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory ...
New Tool Could Track Space Weather 24 Hours Before Reaching …
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/new-tool...

Jun 9, 2015 New Tool Could Track Space Weather 24 Hours Before Reaching Earth A giant cloud of solar particles, called a coronal mass ejection, explodes off the sun on Jan. 7, 2014, as seen in the light halo to the lower right in this image captured by ESA/NASA\'s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory.
Coronal mass ejection - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection

OverviewPhysical propertiesCauseImpact on EarthAssociated phenomenaHistoryStellar coronal mass ejectionsSee also

A coronal mass ejection (CME) is a significant release of plasma and accompanying magnetic field from the Sun\'s corona into the solar wind. CMEs are often associated with solar flares and other forms of solar activity, but a broadly accepted theoretical understanding of these relationships has not been established.

---

Coronal Mass Ejections disrupt the flow of the solar wind and produce disturbances that strike the Earth with sometimes catastrophic results. The Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) has observed a large number of CMEs. The event of April 7th, 1997 is shown to the left (click on the image for the animation). It produced a \"halo event\" in which the entire Sun appeared to be surrounded by the CME. Halo events are produced by CMEs that are directed toward the Earth. As they loom larger and larger they appear to envelope the Sun itself.

Coronal mass ejections are often associated with solar flares and prominence eruptions but they can also occur in the absence of either of these processes. The frequency of CMEs varies with the sunspot cycle. At solar minimum we observe about one CME a week. Near solar maximum we observe an average of 2 to 3 CMEs per day (3.4 MB MPEG movie from the SOHO/LASCO instrument showing a month of CMEs from 1998).

https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/CMEs.shtml


AUTOMATIC DETECTION AND TRACKING OF CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS. II. MULTISCALE FILTERING OF CORONAGRAPH IMAGES

https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22037009-automatic-detection-tracking-coronal-mass-ejections-ii-multiscale-filtering-coronagraph-images

New Tool Could Track Space Weather 24 Hours Before Reaching Earth

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/new-tool-could-track-space-weather-24-hours-before-reaching-earth
AUTOMATIC DETECTION AND TRACKING OF CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS. II. MULTISCALE FILTERING OF CORONAGRAPH IMAGES
Full Record Other Related Research

Abstract

Studying coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in coronagraph data can be challenging due to their diffuse structure and transient nature, and user-specific biases may be introduced through visual inspection of the images. The large amount of data available from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO), and future coronagraph missions also makes manual cataloging of CMEs tedious, and so a robust method of detection and analysis is required. This has led to the development of automated CME detection and cataloging packages such as CACTus, SEEDS, and ARTEMIS. Here, we present the development of a new CORIMP (coronal image processing) CME detection and tracking technique that overcomes many of the drawbacks of current catalogs. It works by first employing the dynamic CME separation technique outlined in a companion paper, and then characterizing CME structure via a multiscale edge-detection algorithm. The detections are chained through time to determine the CME kinematics and morphological changes as it propagates across the plane of sky. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated by its application to a selection of SOHO/LASCO and STEREO/SECCHI images, as well as to synthetic coronagraph images created from a model corona with a variety of CMEs. The algorithms described in this article are being applied to the whole LASCO and SECCHI data sets, and a catalog of results will soon be available to the public.
AUTOMATIC DETECTION AND TRACKING OF CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS. II. MULTISCALE FILTERING OF CORONAGRAPH IMAGES
Full Record Other Related Research

Abstract

Studying coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in coronagraph data can be challenging due to their diffuse structure and transient nature, and user-specific biases may be introduced through visual inspection of the images. The large amount of data available from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO), and future coronagraph missions also makes manual cataloging of CMEs tedious, and so a robust method of detection and analysis is required. This has led to the development of automated CME detection and cataloging packages such as CACTus, SEEDS, and ARTEMIS. Here, we present the development of a new CORIMP (coronal image processing) CME detection and tracking technique that overcomes many of the drawbacks of current catalogs. It works by first employing the dynamic CME separation technique outlined in a companion paper, and then characterizing CME structure via a multiscale edge-detection algorithm. The detections are chained through time to determine the CME kinematics and morphological changes as it propagates across the plane of sky. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated by its application to a selection of SOHO/LASCO and STEREO/SECCHI images, as well as to synthetic coronagraph images created from a model corona with a variety of CMEs. The algorithms described in this article are being applied to the whole LASCO and SECCHI data sets, and a catalog of results will soon be available to the public.
https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22037009-automatic-detection-tracking-coronal-mass-ejections-ii-multiscale-filtering-coronagraph-images



New Tool Could Track Space Weather 24 Hours Before Reaching Earth
A coronal mass ejection as captured by SOHO on Jan. 7, 2014.
A giant cloud of solar particles, called a coronal mass ejection, explodes off the sun on Jan. 7, 2014, as seen in the light halo to the lower right in this image captured by ESA/NASA\'s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. By combining such images with data of the eruption closer to the sun\'s surface, scientists have created a new model to better understand how such CMEs evolve as they travel and how they might impact Earth.
Credits: ESA&NASA/SOHO

Our sun is a volatile star: explosions of light, energy and solar materials regularly dot its surface. Sometimes an eruption is so large it hurls magnetized material into space, sending out clouds that can pass by Earth\'s own magnetic fields, where the interactions can affect electronics on satellites, GPS communications or even utility grids on the ground.

The clouds can be large or small. They can be relatively slow or as fast as 3,000 miles per second, but only one component has a strong effect on how much a CME will arrange the magnetic fields in near-Earth space. If they are aligned in the same direction as Earth\'s -- that is, pointing from south to north -- the CME will slide by without much effect. If aligned in the opposite direction, however, Earth\'s magnetic fields can be completely rearranged. Indeed, it has happened that giant, fast moving CMEs have had little effect at Earth, while small ones have caused huge space weather storms, dependent on that one factor of where the magnetic fields point.

But right now we don\'t have much advance notice of how a CME\'s magnetic fields are arranged. We can only measure the fields as the CME passes over satellites close to Earth.

\"What we have now is effectively only a 30 to 60 minute heads up of a CME\'s configuration before it hits Earth\'s magnetosphere,\" said Neel Savani, a space scientist at NASA\'s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. \"We don\'t have a real time method for measuring or modeling this magnetic field more than an hour before a space weather impact.\"

An SDO sun seen on Jan. 7, 2014 with model field lines.
This image of the sun from January 7, 2014, combines a picture of the sun captured by NASA\'s Solar Dynamics Observatory, or SDO, with a model of the magnetic field lines using data that is also from SDO. A new model based on such data may one day help space weather forecasters better predict how eruptions from the sun will behave at Earth.
Credits: NASA/SDO/LMSAL

Savani described a new model to measure the magnetic field configuration significantly further ahead of time in a paper appearing in Space Weather on June 9, 2015. The model is now undergoing testing, but if it\'s robust, then scientists might finally have a tool to predict a CME\'s magnetic configuration from afar. And that means forecasters could give utility grid and satellite operators a full 24-hour advance warning to protect their systems -- crucial time to protect their assets.

While we have no tools that can observe the magnetic configuration of a CME directly as it is traveling toward us, Savani made use of NASA\'s Solar Dynamics Observatory to observe the magnetic fields of the initial eruption on the sun.

In the past, using such data to predict which direction the CME\'s magnetic fields point has not been very successful. However, Savani realized that earlier attempts simplified the eruptions too much, assuming they came from a single active region -- the magnetically complex spots on the sun that often give rise to solar eruptions. Savani\'s new method is able to incorporate the complex reality of CMEs having foot points in more than one active region.

\"Once you can successfully measure the initial structure of the CME, the next step is to have a good understanding of how it evolves as it travels,\" said Savani.

We have no tools to measure the magnetic fields once a CME has moved away from the sun, but scientists do have ways of watching how the clouds expand, twist and grow as they race into space. Both NASA\'s Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory, or STEREO, and the joint ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, or SOHO, provide these observations using coronagraphs, which can focus in on the CME\'s progress by blocking the bright light of the sun.

By watching how the CME moves and changes in these coronagraphs, Savani\'s model tracks how the initial eruption evolves over time. Ultimately, the model can describe how the CME will be configured as it approaches Earth, and even which parts of the CME will have magnetic fields pointed in which direction.

So far Savani has tested his modeling method on eight different CMEs to show that his model\'s predictions corresponded with what actually happened. He will test even more examples to make sure the model is truly robust. If perfected, such models can be used by the Space Weather Prediction Center at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association to provide alerts and forecasts to industries that require space weather forecasts, such as the military, the airlines and utility companies. But it\'s NASA\'s responsibility – as the research arm of the nation\'s space weather effort – to make sure a model is reliable enough for regular operational use. So Savani is working with the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA Goddard to test his model.

“We’ll test the model against a variety of historical events,” said Antti Pulkkinen, director of the Space Weather Research Center at NASA Goddard. “We’ll also see how well it works on any events we witness over the next year. In the end we’ll be able to provide concrete information about how reliable a prediction tool it is.”

Savani will also work to improve the user interface of his model. The goal is to create an easy-to-use application with standardized input and reliable output. Time will tell if Savani\'s model can help with characterization of CMEs, but if it works, scientists will have an advanced new tool to protect our home planet from the effects of space weather.

For more information about the Solar Dynamics Observatory, visit: www.nasa.gov/sdo


Karen C. Fox
NASA\'s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
Last Updated: Aug 7, 2017
Editor: Holly Zell


https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/new-tool-could-track-space-weather-24-hours-before-reaching-earth
SOHO LASCO CME CATALOG

https://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME_list/

https://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME_list/UNIVERSAL/2021_12/univ2021_12.html

2021/12/31 16:00:05 326 9 553 598 1125 41.4*1 ---- ---- 322 C2 C3 DST Java Movie Very Poor Event; Only C2
 
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Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design
Date: Thu, 4 Aug 2022 15:50:24 -0700 (PDT)
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Message-ID: <ebc13dd1-301f-4934-b2b8-b8c839c2c2efn@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: Coronary Mass Ejections control 1-year Short Term Climate Changes
From: a a <manta103g@gmail.com
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E

Edward Hernandez

Guest
See also these Jake Isks (aka John Doe) troll nym-shift names:

John Doe <always.look@message.header>
John <look@post.header>
Judge Dredd <always.look@post.header>
\"Edward\'s Mother\" <always.see@post.header>
\"Edward\'s Father\" <always.see@post.header>
Edward Hernandez Loves Porn <always.view@post.header>
Edward Hernandez Smells Funny <view@post.header>
Jack Webb <myopinion@least.com>

Jake Isks (aka John Doe troll) claiming it has never nym-shifted on
Usenet: http://al.howardknight.net/?ID=165248158300

How stupid is Troll Doe?

Troll Doe posting one of its vacuous insults at 05:39:20 UTC on 20 Mar
2022 with a grammatical error:

http://al.howardknight.net/?ID=164790428800

Then, at 05:55:56 UTC, 16 minutes and 36 seconds later, Troll Doe
responds to its own post with a correction, but stupidly forgets that it
sets a Followup-To: header to the \"alt.test.group\", resulting in its
correction article posting only to \"alt.test.group\":

http://al.howardknight.net/?ID=164790440700

Troll Doe, mister \"always.look@message.header\", is so stupid it does not
even remember it sets a Followup-To: header in its own vacuous insults.

Special thanks to corvid <bl@ckb.ird> for pointing out the stupidity of
Troll Doe:

http://al.howardknight.net/?ID=165594737000

The Troll Doe stated the following in message-id
<sdhn7c$pkp$4@dont-email.me>:

> The troll doesn\'t even know how to format a USENET post...

And yet, the clueless Troll Doe has continued to post incorrectly
formatted USENET articles that are devoid of content (latest example on
Fri, 05 Aug 2022 01:24:56 GMT in message-id
<Ij_GK.1094296$Zth9.761979@usenetxs.com>).

NOBODY likes the John Doe troll\'s contentless spam.

This posting is a public service announcement for any google groups
readers who happen by to point out that Troll Doe does not even follow
the rules it uses to troll other posters.

un9oAwUlUqE3
 
E

Edward Hernandez

Guest
See also these Jake Isks (aka John Doe) troll nym-shift names:

John Doe <always.look@message.header>
John <look@post.header>
Judge Dredd <always.look@post.header>
\"Edward\'s Mother\" <always.see@post.header>
\"Edward\'s Father\" <always.see@post.header>
Edward Hernandez Loves Porn <always.view@post.header>
Edward Hernandez Smells Funny <view@post.header>
Jack Webb <myopinion@least.com>

Jake Isks (aka John Doe troll) claiming it has never nym-shifted on
Usenet: http://al.howardknight.net/?ID=165248158300

Troll Doe stated the following in message-id
<svsh05$lbh$5@dont-email.me>
(http://al.howardknight.net/?ID=164904625100) posted Fri, 4 Mar 2022
08:01:09 -0000 (UTC):

Compared to other regulars, Bozo contributes practically nothing
except insults to this group.

Yet, since Wed, 5 Jan 2022 04:10:38 -0000 (UTC) Troll Doe\'s post ratio
to USENET (**) has been 76.1% of its posts contributing \"nothing except
insults\" to USENET.

** Since Wed, 5 Jan 2022 04:10:38 -0000 (UTC) Troll Doe has posted at
least 3617 articles to USENET. Of which 176 have been pure insults and
2578 have been Troll Doe \"troll format\" postings.

The John Doe troll stated the following in message-id
<sdhn7c$pkp$4@dont-email.me>:

> The troll doesn\'t even know how to format a USENET post...

And the John Doe troll stated the following in message-id
<sg3kr7$qt5$1@dont-email.me>:

The reason Bozo cannot figure out how to get Google to keep from
breaking its lines in inappropriate places is because Bozo is
CLUELESS...

And yet, the clueless John Doe troll has continued to post incorrectly
formatted USENET articles that are devoid of content (latest example on
Fri, 05 Aug 2022 01:24:59 GMT in message-id
<Lj_GK.1094299$Zth9.1031011@usenetxs.com>).

NOBODY likes the John Doe troll\'s contentless spam.

This posting is a public service announcement for any google groups
readers who happen by to point out that John Doe does not even follow
the rules it uses to troll other posters.

eFdptgSTLlzG
 
E

Edward Hernandez

Guest
See also these Jake Isks (aka John Doe) troll nym-shift names:

John Doe <always.look@message.header>
John <look@post.header>
Judge Dredd <always.look@post.header>
\"Edward\'s Mother\" <always.see@post.header>
\"Edward\'s Father\" <always.see@post.header>
Edward Hernandez Loves Porn <always.view@post.header>
Edward Hernandez Smells Funny <view@post.header>
Jack Webb <myopinion@least.com>

Jake Isks (aka John Doe troll) claiming it has never nym-shifted on
Usenet: http://al.howardknight.net/?ID=165248158300

Troll Doe stated the following in message-id
<svsh05$lbh$5@dont-email.me>
(http://al.howardknight.net/?ID=164904625100) posted Fri, 4 Mar 2022
08:01:09 -0000 (UTC):

Compared to other regulars, Bozo contributes practically nothing
except insults to this group.

Yet, since Wed, 5 Jan 2022 04:10:38 -0000 (UTC) Troll Doe\'s post ratio
to USENET (**) has been 76.1% of its posts contributing \"nothing except
insults\" to USENET.

** Since Wed, 5 Jan 2022 04:10:38 -0000 (UTC) Troll Doe has posted at
least 3617 articles to USENET. Of which 176 have been pure insults and
2578 have been Troll Doe \"troll format\" postings.

The Troll Doe stated the following in message-id
<sdhn7c$pkp$4@dont-email.me>:

> The troll doesn\'t even know how to format a USENET post...

And the Troll Doe stated the following in message-id
<sg3kr7$qt5$1@dont-email.me>:

The reason Bozo cannot figure out how to get Google to keep from
breaking its lines in inappropriate places is because Bozo is
CLUELESS...

And yet, the clueless Troll Doe has continued to post incorrectly
formatted USENET articles that are devoid of content (latest example on
Fri, 05 Aug 2022 01:24:57 GMT in message-id
<Jj_GK.1094297$Zth9.706352@usenetxs.com>).

NOBODY likes the John Doe troll\'s contentless spam.

This posting is a public service announcement for any google groups
readers who happen by to point out that John Doe does not even follow
the rules it uses to troll other posters.

ZLkDG20QZGIX
 
E

Edward Hernandez

Guest
See also these Jake Isks (aka John Doe) troll nym-shift names:

John Doe <always.look@message.header>
John <look@post.header>
Judge Dredd <always.look@post.header>
\"Edward\'s Mother\" <always.see@post.header>
\"Edward\'s Father\" <always.see@post.header>
Edward Hernandez Loves Porn <always.view@post.header>
Edward Hernandez Smells Funny <view@post.header>
Jack Webb <myopinion@least.com>

Jake Isks (aka John Doe troll) claiming it has never nym-shifted on
Usenet: http://al.howardknight.net/?ID=165248158300

In message-id <t6nt3e$7bp$3@dont-email.me>
(http://al.howardknight.net/?ID=165357273000) posted Thu, 26 May 2022
12:50:54 -0000 (UTC) Troll Doe stated:

Always Wrong, the utterly foulmouthed group idiot, adding absolutely
NOTHING but insults to this thread, as usual...

Yet, since Wed, 5 Jan 2022 04:10:38 -0000 (UTC) Troll Doe\'s post ratio
to USENET (**) has been 76.1% of its posts contributing \"nothing except
insults\" to USENET.

** Since Wed, 5 Jan 2022 04:10:38 -0000 (UTC) Troll Doe has posted at
least 3617 articles to USENET. Of which 176 have been pure insults and
2578 have been Troll Doe \"troll format\" postings.

The Troll Doe stated the following in message-id
<sdhn7c$pkp$4@dont-email.me>:

> The troll doesn\'t even know how to format a USENET post...

And the Troll Doe stated the following in message-id
<sg3kr7$qt5$1@dont-email.me>:

The reason Bozo cannot figure out how to get Google to keep from
breaking its lines in inappropriate places is because Bozo is
CLUELESS...

And yet, the clueless Troll Doe has continued to post incorrectly
formatted USENET articles that are devoid of content (latest example on
Fri, 05 Aug 2022 01:24:58 GMT in message-id
<Kj_GK.1094298$Zth9.311008@usenetxs.com>).

NOBODY likes the John Doe troll\'s contentless spam.

This posting is a public service announcement for any google groups
readers who happen by to point out that Troll Doe does not even follow
the rules it uses to troll other posters.

j7AmvCZVdfKA
 
F

Fred Bloggs

Guest
On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 6:29:20 PM UTC-4, a a wrote:
Coronary Mass Ejections control 1-year Short Term Climate Changes

NASA says you\'re wrong.
 
A

a a

Guest
On Friday, 5 August 2022 at 20:19:08 UTC+2, Fred Bloggs wrote:
On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 6:29:20 PM UTC-4, a a wrote:
Coronary Mass Ejections control 1-year Short Term Climate Changes
NASA says I am right
 
J

Jack Webb

Guest
Google Groups spam...

--
Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

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Aug 2022 11:19:05 -0700 (PDT)
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Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design
Date: Fri, 5 Aug 2022 11:19:05 -0700 (PDT)
In-Reply-To: <14f78269-5806-40f4-be65-e3220bf4cc2cn@googlegroups.com
Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=2601:5cc:4701:5250:6d4c:8c5e:c96d:e196;
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User-Agent: G2/1.0
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Message-ID: <b45dee4c-c703-4d29-937d-2081ef6afb57n@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: Coronary Mass Ejections control 1-year Short Term Climate Changes
From: Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com
Injection-Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2022 18:19:05 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=\"UTF-8\"
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J

Jack Webb

Guest
Google spam...

--
a a <manta103g@gmail.com> wrote:

X-Received: by 2002:a05:6214:20a8:b0:477:1882:3e7 with SMTP id 8-20020a05621420a800b00477188203e7mr7266391qvd.44.1659730301028;
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Aug 2022 13:11:40 -0700 (PDT)
Path: not-for-mail
Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design
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Message-ID: <61e3d362-9099-479b-9ec5-bbd0af6e7cddn@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: Coronary Mass Ejections control 1-year Short Term Climate Changes
From: a a <manta103g@gmail.com
Injection-Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2022 20:11:41 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=\"UTF-8\"
X-Received-Bytes: 1522
 
E

Edward Hernandez

Guest
See also these Jake Isks (aka John Doe) troll nym-shift names:

John Doe <always.look@message.header>
John <look@post.header>
Judge Dredd <always.look@post.header>
\"Edward\'s Mother\" <always.see@post.header>
\"Edward\'s Father\" <always.see@post.header>
Edward Hernandez Loves Porn <always.view@post.header>
Edward Hernandez Smells Funny <view@post.header>
Jack Webb <myopinion@least.com>

Jake Isks (aka John Doe troll) claiming it has never nym-shifted on
Usenet: http://al.howardknight.net/?ID=165248158300

In message-id <t6nt3e$7bp$3@dont-email.me>
(http://al.howardknight.net/?ID=165357273000) posted Thu, 26 May 2022
12:50:54 -0000 (UTC) John Dope stated:

Always Wrong, the utterly foulmouthed group idiot, adding absolutely
NOTHING but insults to this thread, as usual...

Yet, since Wed, 5 Jan 2022 04:10:38 -0000 (UTC) John Dope\'s post ratio
to USENET (**) has been 77.1% of its posts contributing \"nothing except
insults\" to USENET.

** Since Wed, 5 Jan 2022 04:10:38 -0000 (UTC) John Dope has posted at
least 3833 articles to USENET. Of which 176 have been pure insults and
2781 have been John Dope \"troll format\" postings.

The John Dope troll stated the following in message-id
<sdhn7c$pkp$4@dont-email.me>:

> The troll doesn\'t even know how to format a USENET post...

And the John Dope troll stated the following in message-id
<sg3kr7$qt5$1@dont-email.me>:

The reason Bozo cannot figure out how to get Google to keep from
breaking its lines in inappropriate places is because Bozo is
CLUELESS...

And yet, the clueless John Dope troll has continued to post incorrectly
formatted USENET articles that are devoid of content (latest example on
Fri, 05 Aug 2022 21:53:57 GMT in message-id
<VjgHK.1469469$yKw9.524591@usenetxs.com>).

NOBODY likes the John Doe troll\'s contentless spam.

This posting is a public service announcement for any google groups
readers who happen by to point out that John Dope does not even follow
the rules it uses to troll other posters.

W38elb4J3X0g
 
E

Edward Hernandez

Guest
See also these Jake Isks (aka John Doe) troll nym-shift names:

John Doe <always.look@message.header>
John <look@post.header>
Judge Dredd <always.look@post.header>
\"Edward\'s Mother\" <always.see@post.header>
\"Edward\'s Father\" <always.see@post.header>
Edward Hernandez Loves Porn <always.view@post.header>
Edward Hernandez Smells Funny <view@post.header>
Jack Webb <myopinion@least.com>

Jake Isks (aka John Doe troll) claiming it has never nym-shifted on
Usenet: http://al.howardknight.net/?ID=165248158300

Troll Doe stated the following in message-id
<svsh05$lbh$5@dont-email.me>
(http://al.howardknight.net/?ID=164904625100) posted Fri, 4 Mar 2022
08:01:09 -0000 (UTC):

Compared to other regulars, Bozo contributes practically nothing
except insults to this group.

Yet, since Wed, 5 Jan 2022 04:10:38 -0000 (UTC) Troll Doe\'s post ratio
to USENET (**) has been 77.1% of its posts contributing \"nothing except
insults\" to USENET.

** Since Wed, 5 Jan 2022 04:10:38 -0000 (UTC) Troll Doe has posted at
least 3833 articles to USENET. Of which 176 have been pure insults and
2781 have been Troll Doe \"troll format\" postings.

The John Dope troll stated the following in message-id
<sdhn7c$pkp$4@dont-email.me>:

> The troll doesn\'t even know how to format a USENET post...

And the John Dope troll stated the following in message-id
<sg3kr7$qt5$1@dont-email.me>:

The reason Bozo cannot figure out how to get Google to keep from
breaking its lines in inappropriate places is because Bozo is
CLUELESS...

And yet, the clueless John Dope troll has continued to post incorrectly
formatted USENET articles that are devoid of content (latest example on
Fri, 05 Aug 2022 21:53:58 GMT in message-id
<WjgHK.1469470$yKw9.742809@usenetxs.com>).

NOBODY likes the John Doe troll\'s contentless spam.

This posting is a public service announcement for any google groups
readers who happen by to point out that John Doe does not even follow
the rules it uses to troll other posters.

ZVo11kjrDbBW
 
A

a a

Guest
On Saturday, 6 August 2022 at 00:26:35 UTC+2, Edward Hernandez wrote:
See also these Jake Isks (aka John Doe) troll nym-shift names:

John Doe <alway...@message.header
John <lo...@post.header
Judge Dredd <alway...@post.header
\"Edward\'s Mother\" <alway...@post.header
\"Edward\'s Father\" <alway...@post.header
Edward Hernandez Loves Porn <alway...@post.header
Edward Hernandez Smells Funny <vi...@post.header
Jack Webb <myop...@least.com

Jake Isks (aka John Doe troll) claiming it has never nym-shifted on
Usenet: http://al.howardknight.net/?ID=165248158300
Troll Doe stated the following in message-id
svsh05$lbh$5...@dont-email.me
(http://al.howardknight.net/?ID=164904625100) posted Fri, 4 Mar 2022
08:01:09 -0000 (UTC):

Compared to other regulars, Bozo contributes practically nothing
except insults to this group.
Yet, since Wed, 5 Jan 2022 04:10:38 -0000 (UTC) Troll Doe\'s post ratio
to USENET (**) has been 77.1% of its posts contributing \"nothing except
insults\" to USENET.
** Since Wed, 5 Jan 2022 04:10:38 -0000 (UTC) Troll Doe has posted at
least 3833 articles to USENET. Of which 176 have been pure insults and
2781 have been Troll Doe \"troll format\" postings.
The John Dope troll stated the following in message-id
sdhn7c$pkp$4...@dont-email.me>:

The troll doesn\'t even know how to format a USENET post...

And the John Dope troll stated the following in message-id
sg3kr7$qt5$1...@dont-email.me>:

The reason Bozo cannot figure out how to get Google to keep from
breaking its lines in inappropriate places is because Bozo is
CLUELESS...

And yet, the clueless John Dope troll has continued to post incorrectly
formatted USENET articles that are devoid of content (latest example on
Fri, 05 Aug 2022 21:53:58 GMT in message-id
WjgHK.1469470$yKw9....@usenetxs.com>).
NOBODY likes the John Doe troll\'s contentless spam.

This posting is a public service announcement for any google groups
readers who happen by to point out that John Doe does not even follow
the rules it uses to troll other posters.
ZVo11kjrDbBW
thank you for your support
 

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