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the beginning of the end, I hope

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Tom Gardner
Guest

Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:32 am   



On 10/01/17 17:19, George Herold wrote:
Quote:
On Tuesday, January 10, 2017 at 4:36:24 AM UTC-5, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 10/01/17 03:08, John Larkin wrote:
big snip


Good book, with some related observations:

http://tinyurl.com/jsmz9lz

I've no intention of spending my little remaining
life reading it, of course, but from the blurb it
looks like I would agree with much of it.

Tom, You often speak like you expect to drop dead next week.
If I'm not being too personal, do you have some form of
aggressive cancer or something? (And ignore this
if you don't want to talk about it.)


Not aggressive, but there are too many interesting
things left to do and books left to read. I'm seriously
contemplating never buying another book because I've
already have too many unread books on my Round Tuit
list.

Having seen people of my age drop dead from a heart
attack (despite being thin and fit), and "drop DNR"
from a stroke (despite being flying instructors),
I'm only too aware that my average heart rate is
below 1micro bpm.

John Larkin
Guest

Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:18 am   



On Tue, 10 Jan 2017 17:32:08 +0000, Tom Gardner
<spamjunk_at_blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

Quote:
On 10/01/17 17:19, George Herold wrote:
On Tuesday, January 10, 2017 at 4:36:24 AM UTC-5, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 10/01/17 03:08, John Larkin wrote:
big snip


Good book, with some related observations:

http://tinyurl.com/jsmz9lz

I've no intention of spending my little remaining
life reading it, of course, but from the blurb it
looks like I would agree with much of it.

Tom, You often speak like you expect to drop dead next week.
If I'm not being too personal, do you have some form of
aggressive cancer or something? (And ignore this
if you don't want to talk about it.)

Not aggressive, but there are too many interesting
things left to do and books left to read. I'm seriously
contemplating never buying another book because I've
already have too many unread books on my Round Tuit
list.


I have too many already-read books. I'll have to donate 100 or so to
make room for more.

The One Child book was fast to read, and really interesting. I'm not
too worried now about Chinese kids starting up companies to compete
with me.


Quote:

Having seen people of my age drop dead from a heart
attack (despite being thin and fit), and "drop DNR"
from a stroke (despite being flying instructors),
I'm only too aware that my average heart rate is
below 1micro bpm.


You are only alive for roughly 1 PPB of the age of the universe. The
probability of being alive now is basically zero.


--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

Bill Sloman
Guest

Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:30 am   



On 11/01/2017 6:18 AM, John Larkin wrote:
Quote:
On Tue, 10 Jan 2017 17:32:08 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk_at_blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 10/01/17 17:19, George Herold wrote:
On Tuesday, January 10, 2017 at 4:36:24 AM UTC-5, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 10/01/17 03:08, John Larkin wrote:


<big snip>

Quote:
You are only alive for roughly 1 PPB of the age of the universe. The
probability of being alive now is basically zero.


This shows a very poor grasp of what probability is about.

Either your heat is beating - very roughly once a second - or it isn't.

You may recover from a short period when it isn't beating - open heart
surgery comes to mind. What happens before it started beating and after
it contracted for the last time aren't really of any interest, so it's
silly to average over a period longer than a life-time.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Tom Gardner
Guest

Wed Jan 11, 2017 4:32 pm   



On 11/01/17 03:45, Bill Sloman wrote:
Quote:
On 11/01/2017 6:18 AM, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 10 Jan 2017 17:32:08 +0000, Tom Gardner
spamjunk_at_blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 10/01/17 17:19, George Herold wrote:
On Tuesday, January 10, 2017 at 4:36:24 AM UTC-5, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 10/01/17 03:08, John Larkin wrote:

big snip

You are only alive for roughly 1 PPB of the age of the universe. The
probability of being alive now is basically zero.

This shows a very poor grasp of what probability is about.

Either your heat is beating - very roughly once a second - or it isn't.

You may recover from a short period when it isn't beating - open heart surgery
comes to mind. What happens before it started beating and after it contracted
for the last time aren't really of any interest, so it's silly to average over a
period longer than a life-time.


I've had several "suits" demand that I produce an
"average value" for some metric, where that value
would be either meaningless or deliberately misleading.

Where the suits aren't particularly numerate, it can be
difficult to get them to understand why their demand is
meaningless or misleading. The pedagogical example of
averaging over 1e9 years is a simple easy way of getting
the point across.

So, yes, it is silly to average over a period longer
than a lifetime - that's the whole point.

On a separate tack, I personally find it a useful way of
/feeling/ that life is transitory and that we are dead
for a lot longer than we are alive.

Corollary: don't take /too/ extreme measures to delay
the inevitable; accept the inevitable. The definition
of "too" is time-dependent and individual dependent, of
course.

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