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amdx
Guest

Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:45 pm   



On 4/29/2020 10:37 PM, Ricky C wrote:
Quote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 10:41:28 PM UTC-4, amdx wrote:
On 4/29/2020 8:38 PM, Ricky C wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 9:19:55 PM UTC-4, amdx wrote:
On 4/29/2020 6:02 PM, Ricky C wrote:

Not cash, bonds are the safe alternative to stocks. Just don't buy too late after they have gone up.


That's not always true, in fact many people holding bonds had a
decrease in their value during this Covid problem.
I have a small amount in a Vanguard high yield Bond fund (VWEAX), it
lost 19.7% from 2-20 to 3-24. During the same 2-20 to 3-24 my Stock fund
(VTSAX) dropped 28.6%. Today VWEAX is down 8.9% and VTSAX is down 16.3%.

Bonds will never drop below a level defined by the intererst rate on teh bond as long as the bond is paid off. US treasury bonds and similar have virtually no risk. I think the issue with your investment is summed up in the name "high yield" which means high risk (mostly company bonds no doubt so not much different from investing directly in the company except less gain). You should have switched over to government bond funds like I did many months ago. I may have missed out on some of the appreciation in the stock based funds, but perfect timing is tough.


No the problem is not high yield, it is a bond fund, they don't
generally hold until the bond is redeemed.

You seem to misunderstand. By their nature, bonds never go down in value below some point... well, unless inflation rises astronomically. Only then would it be worth taking a hit on the price of the bond so you can get the low yield principle back to invest in something appropriately larger. Since we are not having absurdly high inflation and no other investment is looking any better, the only reason bond values would drop is the risk of default on the bonds increases, which would only be happening now if the bonds in question were high risk company bonds... like Tesla rather than US Treasury bonds.

It doesn't matter that you are investing in a fund. It's still invested in bonds.


Ya, I see it as you misunderstanding. If you have $1000 bond paying 3%
and interest rates rise to to 4%, no one will pay $1000 for your bond,
because they can buy a bond that pays 4%. They will buy your bond at a
discount, less than $1,000. Thus your bond has lost value. Of course you
can hold on to it until it pays off in it's full amount, that could be
years.



Quote:

But don't let the lower volatility make you think the bond is safe.
The 10 year return of the bond fund VWEAX is 74.4% while the 10 year
return of the stock fund VTSAX is 163.3%.

That's only useful if you held the fund during that period. Does that period include the last three months? If not no point in discussing it.

If you are investing for retirement you would hold during that period.
I used today's price for the 10 year yield. So there is a point.

Does investing in the fund today guarantee the return of 74.4%? If not, that number means nothing. I'm pretty sure there are no stock funds that guarantee any return. So that number means nothing.


What you are saying is, there is no reason to invest for the future,
because returns mean nothing. Have you looked at a 30 year price chart
of the DOW , Nasdaq or S&P? They have all gone up since their inception.



Quote:

I have a neighbor that is really safe, he's been safe since 9-12-2001,
right after 9-11, he moved to cash and been there since. He's lost about
30% of the buying power of his money to inflation.

That's why cash is NOT safe.

It's not in dollar bills, it is in basically a bank account or Money
Market.

Doesn't matter. Cash investments pay very, very low interest, far below inflation. Inflation eats up the principal. What's safe about that? Guaranteed depreciation. Great!


Nothing, that was my point, my neighbor only thinks he's being safe.
I guess you missed the sarcasm, even after I explained all his losses.


Quote:

Also he's lost about
200% growth over 20 years. He's been safe, but it has cost him about
$400,000 dollars of growth in his nest egg.

Missing out on investment gains is never real. Notice it's always stated after the fact. I bet you missed out on the 400% return on Tesla stock (TSLA) since last year...! Because you also missed out on any number of other possible investments none of us knew were certain.

It is real, because if he didn't get scared out after 9-11 he would
have earned real money.

Shoulda, woulda, coulda... WE ALWAYS MISS OUT ON SOMETHING.


Even after this drop, I couldn't get him to put
a little money in the market.
I don't have stock in any one company, I own mostly VTSAX or VTI, they
have about 3500 different company stocks in the fund.
I do own about $2500 of Tesla through VTSAX.

Great way to minimize your profits and experience opportunity loss. I already told you about the great opportunity you missed in Tesla. At least, according to your thinking it was opportunity loss.

I say what's the difference between opportunity loss and risk mitigation? You tell me.


You choose a path and accept the gains or losses.


btw, bonds are often a counter balance to stocks, conventional wisdom is
that if stocks go down bonds go up and vise versa, this keeps your
portfolio balanced. It doesn't always work,

If anything ALWAYS worked everyone would do it.
People do do it! It is very common as you age to diversify into a more
balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds.
My comment was a response to your,

"bonds are the safe alternative to stocks"

When I first looked at investing I read a bunch. It didn't take me long to recognize most of it was pure BS. "Balanced portfolio" is one of the myths. Again, is it opportunity loss or risk mitigation?

Bonds are safer than stocks but they offer less reward. In uncertain times they (meaning crap market times) they typically pay better yeilds than stocks. So is this a crap market time or a good market time?

I only invest in companies I know something about. I usually do very well with them, but not always. I invested in one company that lost is all. I invested in another company I knew would eventually be bought out. The CEO liked his job so he held on to it a lot longer than the big investors likes, so they booted him out. Still took another four years to get the market price up to where it sold at a great return. Factoring in how long I held it I got the equivalent return a investing in real estate... lol.

All my other investments paid very well with 100% in a year or two being the lowest. You have to dig and dig and learn everything you can about a company and understand all the financial info. That is crucial. That greatly cuts your risks.


In the short term, I would be in government bond funds. But if the states go through bankruptcy as Pence recommends, they will be fucked too.

Gold prices were low in 2000 (<$400), rising until 2011 (>$2000). Dropped abruptly in 2013 (unusual for gold) and wallowed around $1200 until 2019 when it started up again. Currently it's about $1700.

I think it's a bit too late to consider gold to be a safe haven, but who knows? It may repeat the 2000-2011 rise given the uncertainty of the times.

Tesla released first quarter numbers today and the stock has jumped 10% in after hours market from $800 to $880. This may be a good time to short the stock. I'm not much for shorting any stock though. Maybe if you hedge with options. I still am long some 200 odd shares. At the end of the month it will be long term capital gains. Bought at $190 or so. Wow! Big win! If I sell the remainder at today's price it will be a total of $320,000 earned and all long term capital gains taxed like Warren Buffet, not his secretary. I can't afford to pay the same tax rates that the hoi polloi pay. If you make lots of money, who can?

I may not like Trump's policies, but they do benefit me.



I didn't like Obama's policies, but I doubled my net worth during his
8 years.

Must have been momentum from Bush's tenure.


Re: taxes, I didn't have any tax due this year, yet I sold enough
stocks to pay my daughters $66,000 dental school tuition and supply our
living expenses. Lots of LTCGs at 0% tax rate. This year, I'll do Roth
conversions up to the top of the 12% tax bracket. So, I'll probably pay
about $10k.

Should I assume LTCG is long term capital gains? Why are they 0% taxed?


Yes, Long Term Capital Gains (LTCGs). They are taxed different, 0% tax
up to $40k for single and $80k MFJ.

If you want to communicate, please drop the abbreviations. Is it really important to you to save 14 characters when you are typing hundreds?


Did you figure it out or do you want me to help you?


Quote:

The $40k number is not very useful to me. It's too small. I will fit in the 15% range this year I think.


But 15% is less than you would pay if they weren't LTCGs.

Quote:


This is over and above your standard
deduction. So a married couple can have $104,400 of income with no taxes.
Also, the tax rate is 15% up to $496k and the maximum rate is 20% for
any LTCGs over $496k, That's why Buffet had a lower rate than his secretary.
It's a governmental reward for delayed gratification. (saving rather
than spending)

I am fully aware. That's why I'm waiting to cash out. This last traunch would paid well today. I could have cashed it in for even more when I cashed in another traunch. But I don't mind waiting and paying less tax.

If it were some other company I might just let it ride, but Tesla is so full of ups and downs that it is better to cash out once in awhile and ride the roller coaster again. They did well first quarter, but second quarter is going to be a bear. US production remains down and they are building another factory in Germany. They have no model Y production at all now and that has got to be a blow. They are likely to see some impact to model 3 sales when they ramp up model Y production. But we will see. I think I'm good until the end of the month and will cash out if so. Then pick a new low spot to jump back in, maybe in the fall.



Guest

Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:45 pm   



Ricky C <gnuarm.deletethisbit_at_gmail.com> wrote in news:a6efb3d1-a774-
4de2-bf70-8f7ddb95ac35_at_googlegroups.com:

Quote:
https://xkcd.com/2270/


droll.

Almost as detrimental as picking bad leaders or watching them "get
installed" despite your pick.

Definitely easier however, than one wondering who might make the
best assassin. Especially since it was never in one's list of
previous ponderings.

I pondered a Secret Service agent with a recently deceased mother,
father or spouse, deciding how to craft an accidental discharge
'event'.

Sadly, a quick death would be way to good for the murderous
bastard.

Ricky C
Guest

Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:45 pm   



On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 8:33:08 AM UTC-4, amdx wrote:
Quote:
On 4/29/2020 10:37 PM, Ricky C wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 10:41:28 PM UTC-4, amdx wrote:
On 4/29/2020 8:38 PM, Ricky C wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 9:19:55 PM UTC-4, amdx wrote:
On 4/29/2020 6:02 PM, Ricky C wrote:

Not cash, bonds are the safe alternative to stocks. Just don't buy too late after they have gone up.


That's not always true, in fact many people holding bonds had a
decrease in their value during this Covid problem.
I have a small amount in a Vanguard high yield Bond fund (VWEAX), it
lost 19.7% from 2-20 to 3-24. During the same 2-20 to 3-24 my Stock fund
(VTSAX) dropped 28.6%. Today VWEAX is down 8.9% and VTSAX is down 16..3%.

Bonds will never drop below a level defined by the intererst rate on teh bond as long as the bond is paid off. US treasury bonds and similar have virtually no risk. I think the issue with your investment is summed up in the name "high yield" which means high risk (mostly company bonds no doubt so not much different from investing directly in the company except less gain). You should have switched over to government bond funds like I did many months ago. I may have missed out on some of the appreciation in the stock based funds, but perfect timing is tough.


No the problem is not high yield, it is a bond fund, they don't
generally hold until the bond is redeemed.

You seem to misunderstand. By their nature, bonds never go down in value below some point... well, unless inflation rises astronomically. Only then would it be worth taking a hit on the price of the bond so you can get the low yield principle back to invest in something appropriately larger. Since we are not having absurdly high inflation and no other investment is looking any better, the only reason bond values would drop is the risk of default on the bonds increases, which would only be happening now if the bonds in question were high risk company bonds... like Tesla rather than US Treasury bonds.

It doesn't matter that you are investing in a fund. It's still invested in bonds.


Ya, I see it as you misunderstanding. If you have $1000 bond paying 3%
and interest rates rise to to 4%, no one will pay $1000 for your bond,
because they can buy a bond that pays 4%. They will buy your bond at a
discount, less than $1,000. Thus your bond has lost value. Of course you
can hold on to it until it pays off in it's full amount, that could be
years.


I never said they won't devalue at all. They are a haven because they won't devalue much. They are always worth something close to the principle... shy of extreme inflation which I already mentioned. Are you expecting extreme inflation during this economic downturn?

Other than high inflation, for a bond (or bond fund) to drop in value significantly there has to be significant risk that the payer would default on the bond. That doesn't happen with US Treasuries or bonds from states. Safe investments.


Quote:
But don't let the lower volatility make you think the bond is safe.
The 10 year return of the bond fund VWEAX is 74.4% while the 10 year
return of the stock fund VTSAX is 163.3%.

That's only useful if you held the fund during that period. Does that period include the last three months? If not no point in discussing it.

If you are investing for retirement you would hold during that period.
I used today's price for the 10 year yield. So there is a point.

Does investing in the fund today guarantee the return of 74.4%? If not, that number means nothing. I'm pretty sure there are no stock funds that guarantee any return. So that number means nothing.


What you are saying is, there is no reason to invest for the future,
because returns mean nothing. Have you looked at a 30 year price chart
of the DOW , Nasdaq or S&P? They have all gone up since their inception.


I'm saying your numbers mean nothing because they are numbers from the past.. What is that thing that is always said about investments??? Something about the past performance and future results??? I can't remember.

There's only one way that is guaranteed to make money in stocks, buy low, sell high. If you do that, you've got it made.


Quote:
I have a neighbor that is really safe, he's been safe since 9-12-2001,
right after 9-11, he moved to cash and been there since. He's lost about
30% of the buying power of his money to inflation.

That's why cash is NOT safe.

It's not in dollar bills, it is in basically a bank account or Money
Market.

Doesn't matter. Cash investments pay very, very low interest, far below inflation. Inflation eats up the principal. What's safe about that? Guaranteed depreciation. Great!


Nothing, that was my point, my neighbor only thinks he's being safe.
I guess you missed the sarcasm, even after I explained all his losses.


You mean your perceived losses?


Quote:
Also he's lost about
200% growth over 20 years. He's been safe, but it has cost him about
$400,000 dollars of growth in his nest egg.

Missing out on investment gains is never real. Notice it's always stated after the fact. I bet you missed out on the 400% return on Tesla stock (TSLA) since last year...! Because you also missed out on any number of other possible investments none of us knew were certain.

It is real, because if he didn't get scared out after 9-11 he would
have earned real money.

Shoulda, woulda, coulda... WE ALWAYS MISS OUT ON SOMETHING.


Even after this drop, I couldn't get him to put
a little money in the market.
I don't have stock in any one company, I own mostly VTSAX or VTI, they
have about 3500 different company stocks in the fund.
I do own about $2500 of Tesla through VTSAX.

Great way to minimize your profits and experience opportunity loss. I already told you about the great opportunity you missed in Tesla. At least, according to your thinking it was opportunity loss.

I say what's the difference between opportunity loss and risk mitigation? You tell me.


You choose a path and accept the gains or losses.


btw, bonds are often a counter balance to stocks, conventional wisdom is
that if stocks go down bonds go up and vise versa, this keeps your
portfolio balanced. It doesn't always work,

If anything ALWAYS worked everyone would do it.
People do do it! It is very common as you age to diversify into a more
balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds.
My comment was a response to your,

"bonds are the safe alternative to stocks"

When I first looked at investing I read a bunch. It didn't take me long to recognize most of it was pure BS. "Balanced portfolio" is one of the myths. Again, is it opportunity loss or risk mitigation?

Bonds are safer than stocks but they offer less reward. In uncertain times they (meaning crap market times) they typically pay better yeilds than stocks. So is this a crap market time or a good market time?

I only invest in companies I know something about. I usually do very well with them, but not always. I invested in one company that lost is all. I invested in another company I knew would eventually be bought out. The CEO liked his job so he held on to it a lot longer than the big investors likes, so they booted him out. Still took another four years to get the market price up to where it sold at a great return. Factoring in how long I held it I got the equivalent return a investing in real estate... lol.

All my other investments paid very well with 100% in a year or two being the lowest. You have to dig and dig and learn everything you can about a company and understand all the financial info. That is crucial. That greatly cuts your risks.


In the short term, I would be in government bond funds. But if the states go through bankruptcy as Pence recommends, they will be fucked too.

Gold prices were low in 2000 (<$400), rising until 2011 (>$2000). Dropped abruptly in 2013 (unusual for gold) and wallowed around $1200 until 2019 when it started up again. Currently it's about $1700.

I think it's a bit too late to consider gold to be a safe haven, but who knows? It may repeat the 2000-2011 rise given the uncertainty of the times.

Tesla released first quarter numbers today and the stock has jumped 10% in after hours market from $800 to $880. This may be a good time to short the stock. I'm not much for shorting any stock though. Maybe if you hedge with options. I still am long some 200 odd shares. At the end of the month it will be long term capital gains. Bought at $190 or so. Wow! Big win! If I sell the remainder at today's price it will be a total of $320,000 earned and all long term capital gains taxed like Warren Buffet, not his secretary. I can't afford to pay the same tax rates that the hoi polloi pay. If you make lots of money, who can?

I may not like Trump's policies, but they do benefit me.



I didn't like Obama's policies, but I doubled my net worth during his
8 years.

Must have been momentum from Bush's tenure.


Re: taxes, I didn't have any tax due this year, yet I sold enough
stocks to pay my daughters $66,000 dental school tuition and supply our
living expenses. Lots of LTCGs at 0% tax rate. This year, I'll do Roth
conversions up to the top of the 12% tax bracket. So, I'll probably pay
about $10k.

Should I assume LTCG is long term capital gains? Why are they 0% taxed?


Yes, Long Term Capital Gains (LTCGs). They are taxed different, 0% tax
up to $40k for single and $80k MFJ.

If you want to communicate, please drop the abbreviations. Is it really important to you to save 14 characters when you are typing hundreds?


Did you figure it out or do you want me to help you?



The $40k number is not very useful to me. It's too small. I will fit in the 15% range this year I think.

But 15% is less than you would pay if they weren't LTCGs.


Yep, 15% is a lot better than 30 or 40%.


Quote:
This is over and above your standard
deduction. So a married couple can have $104,400 of income with no taxes.
Also, the tax rate is 15% up to $496k and the maximum rate is 20% for
any LTCGs over $496k, That's why Buffet had a lower rate than his secretary.
It's a governmental reward for delayed gratification. (saving rather
than spending)

I am fully aware. That's why I'm waiting to cash out. This last traunch would paid well today. I could have cashed it in for even more when I cashed in another traunch. But I don't mind waiting and paying less tax.

If it were some other company I might just let it ride, but Tesla is so full of ups and downs that it is better to cash out once in awhile and ride the roller coaster again. They did well first quarter, but second quarter is going to be a bear. US production remains down and they are building another factory in Germany. They have no model Y production at all now and that has got to be a blow. They are likely to see some impact to model 3 sales when they ramp up model Y production. But we will see. I think I'm good until the end of the month and will cash out if so. Then pick a new low spot to jump back in, maybe in the fall.


Yeah, TSLA is funny. After the news the price took a 10% jump, then sloped back all day and is now 3% down from yesterday's close.

--

Rick C.

+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

dcaster@krl.org
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 3:45 am   



On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:39:40 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
Quote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:00:38 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
I'd been thinking about this, but it has official status now.
"Superfluous Demand".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/superfluous-demand-free-fall-whats-upside-re-opening-small-business

My idea is that the Marxist concept of the surplus product of labor
has been going not so much to fat-cat capitalists, but to workers who
spend their wages on silly stuff like premium cable, essential scented
oils, $500 basketball seats, $70K ugly trucks and SUVs, boats that are
rarely used, cruises, wine tours, art studios, like that.

I've noticed the kinds of small businesses that are going under now
and may never come back. Many were silly things like weird nutrients,
strange dance studios, knitting specialties, psychic councelling,
exercize studios next to hilly parks, wine tasting boutiques,
hop-heavy brewpubs, gift stores full of hideous junk.

There's lots of silly electronics and phone/web apps too, highly
derivative ideas that create money-losing angel companies but that
people don't really need. Like $1200 phones.

Mo has two units at ActivSpace, a big building full of small units
rented to anyone at high cost per square foot. It's full of tattoo
artists, art studios, crafts, repair services, skin and hair care, all
kinds of marginally-profitable weird stuff. It rents month-to-month
and people are not paying.


Hmm.. OK I tend to be a frugal type. But I wonder if everyone (in US)
will be a bit more frugal after this? And that will mean less money
moving around... lower GDP...
I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

George H.



Get a copy of " A Random Walk down Wall Street " Buy it used off Abe or Amazon.

I would not recommend selling stocks right now.

Dan
Quote:
--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard


George Herold
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 4:45 am   



On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 10:58:25 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
Quote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 4:31:25 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:

I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

Something with intrinsic value, something people want and need, is
as good as you can do for storing value. That can include partial
ownership in a solid enterprise, too.


I highly suggest that you not talk to your broker if it costs you any money.

Hi Dan, you certainly have a lot of advice. :^)
Let me first say I'm neither as smart nor as rich as you.
(again with the smile. :^)

I guess I was just feeling that it looks like a very uncertain
situation in the future. And I'd like to tuck ~1/2 our
stock money away for a while... gold seems like the traditional
choice.

George H.
Quote:

Something with intrinsic value. Partial ownership in a solid enterprise .....

Sounds like buying stock.

Best if you buy an index 500 fund from Vanguard, Schwab, or Fidelity. Low cost and diversified. Even a company like IBM or GE can run into problems. Buying a fund like a index 500 pretty much guarantees you average returns, but that is pretty darn good.

Dan

If the thing has intrinsic value, and we continue to respect property
rights (the right to own something and not have it confiscated), then
things with intrinsic value should maintain their relative value,
regardless.

But if government starts taking assets -- savings, investments, land,
companies, etc. (and they have many insidious methods and pretexts for
doing so) -- then it's time to buy a big lump of gold and try nibbling
a little chunk of it every night, to see it if fills your belly.

Cheers,
James Arthur

Right. I should take my money out of the stock market... hold it
in cash for a bit... and invest in test equipment during the next
sell off.
(there's no way I can use that much test equipment. :^)

I've got a nice house, sm. barn, nice land...
Well the land is sorta crappy for farming*.. heavy clay..
But there's a beautiful creek that runs along the back end.
(1/2 of it's trees/woods and the other half is slowly turning
into trees. :^)

And then gold, Right. Is gold high now?
(or some other precious metal?)
I was going to ask my broker, I have no idea, but my
first guess is he's not going to sugg> > est gold.
(but what do I know?)

George H.

*a neighbor, ex-farmer, said it was good haying fields.


dcaster@krl.org
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 4:45 am   



On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 4:31:25 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:

Quote:
I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

Something with intrinsic value, something people want and need, is
as good as you can do for storing value. That can include partial
ownership in a solid enterprise, too.


I highly suggest that you not talk to your broker if it costs you any money.

Something with intrinsic value. Partial ownership in a solid enterprise .....

Sounds like buying stock.

Best if you buy an index 500 fund from Vanguard, Schwab, or Fidelity. Low cost and diversified. Even a company like IBM or GE can run into problems. Buying a fund like a index 500 pretty much guarantees you average returns, but that is pretty darn good.

Dan

Quote:
If the thing has intrinsic value, and we continue to respect property
rights (the right to own something and not have it confiscated), then
things with intrinsic value should maintain their relative value,
regardless.

But if government starts taking assets -- savings, investments, land,
companies, etc. (and they have many insidious methods and pretexts for
doing so) -- then it's time to buy a big lump of gold and try nibbling
a little chunk of it every night, to see it if fills your belly.

Cheers,
James Arthur

Right. I should take my money out of the stock market... hold it
in cash for a bit... and invest in test equipment during the next
sell off.
(there's no way I can use that much test equipment. :^)

I've got a nice house, sm. barn, nice land...
Well the land is sorta crappy for farming*.. heavy clay..
But there's a beautiful creek that runs along the back end.
(1/2 of it's trees/woods and the other half is slowly turning
into trees. :^)

And then gold, Right. Is gold high now?
(or some other precious metal?)
I was going to ask my broker, I have no idea, but my
first guess is he's not going to sugg> > est gold.
(but what do I know?)

George H.

*a neighbor, ex-farmer, said it was good haying fields.


Bill Sloman
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 5:45 am   



On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 1:28:57 PM UTC+10, George Herold wrote:
Quote:
On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 10:58:25 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 4:31:25 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:


<snip>

Quote:
I guess I was just feeling that it looks like a very uncertain
situation in the future. And I'd like to tuck ~1/2 our
stock money away for a while... gold seems like the traditional
choice.


Gold may be traditional, but it's price goes up and down quite a lot with changing anxiety levels, so it's going to be cheap when you are relaxed enough to think about selling it. Something less obvious might be better.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Ricky C
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 5:45 am   



On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 11:28:57 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
Quote:
On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 10:58:25 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 4:31:25 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:

I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

Something with intrinsic value, something people want and need, is
as good as you can do for storing value. That can include partial
ownership in a solid enterprise, too.


I highly suggest that you not talk to your broker if it costs you any money.
Hi Dan, you certainly have a lot of advice. :^)
Let me first say I'm neither as smart nor as rich as you.
(again with the smile. :^)

I guess I was just feeling that it looks like a very uncertain
situation in the future. And I'd like to tuck ~1/2 our
stock money away for a while... gold seems like the traditional
choice.


By whom? Gold is what people invest in when they are worried about civilization crashing although bullets may be better, but then you'd better have a gun to go with them.

I already posted data on the price of gold. Looks to me like it is near the all time high. It doesn't move quickly for the most part, but if you start to lose money on it at what price will you bail and what will you put it into?

I still say government bonds are the way to go. They can't drop in value much unless inflation starts to take off an interest rates run up. That also happens slowly and bonds are still more stable than gold.

I say, wait for Tesla to reach below 500 and buy. If it goes below 400 buy like crazy. Below 300 sell it all! No, just kidding. For anytime in the near future Tesla is a great buy at prices significantly lower than today's close of $780. Even with all the rampant losses in the market it still double it's price at the first of the year.

While the market has movements, it doesn't dictate the pricing of any individual stocks. Tesla doesn't move with the market so much. Once they announce the Fremont factory reopening the price will jump hugely. If you don't mind paying tax on it, you can make a lot of money off it. I prefer to pay less tax and buy/sell less often.

--

Rick C.

--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Ricky C
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 5:45 am   



On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 10:23:53 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
Quote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:39:40 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:00:38 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
I'd been thinking about this, but it has official status now.
"Superfluous Demand".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/superfluous-demand-free-fall-whats-upside-re-opening-small-business

My idea is that the Marxist concept of the surplus product of labor
has been going not so much to fat-cat capitalists, but to workers who
spend their wages on silly stuff like premium cable, essential scented
oils, $500 basketball seats, $70K ugly trucks and SUVs, boats that are
rarely used, cruises, wine tours, art studios, like that.

I've noticed the kinds of small businesses that are going under now
and may never come back. Many were silly things like weird nutrients,
strange dance studios, knitting specialties, psychic councelling,
exercize studios next to hilly parks, wine tasting boutiques,
hop-heavy brewpubs, gift stores full of hideous junk.

There's lots of silly electronics and phone/web apps too, highly
derivative ideas that create money-losing angel companies but that
people don't really need. Like $1200 phones.

Mo has two units at ActivSpace, a big building full of small units
rented to anyone at high cost per square foot. It's full of tattoo
artists, art studios, crafts, repair services, skin and hair care, all
kinds of marginally-profitable weird stuff. It rents month-to-month
and people are not paying.


Hmm.. OK I tend to be a frugal type. But I wonder if everyone (in US)
will be a bit more frugal after this? And that will mean less money
moving around... lower GDP...
I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

George H.



Get a copy of " A Random Walk down Wall Street " Buy it used off Abe or Amazon.

I would not recommend selling stocks right now.


Doesn't that depend entirely on the stock?

--

Rick C.

++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

amdx
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 2:45 pm   



On 4/30/2020 11:13 PM, Ricky C wrote:
Quote:
On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 11:28:57 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 10:58:25 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 4:31:25 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:

I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

Something with intrinsic value, something people want and need, is
as good as you can do for storing value. That can include partial
ownership in a solid enterprise, too.


I highly suggest that you not talk to your broker if it costs you any money.
Hi Dan, you certainly have a lot of advice. :^)
Let me first say I'm neither as smart nor as rich as you.
(again with the smile. :^)

I guess I was just feeling that it looks like a very uncertain
situation in the future. And I'd like to tuck ~1/2 our
stock money away for a while... gold seems like the traditional
choice.

By whom? Gold is what people invest in when they are worried about civilization crashing although bullets may be better, but then you'd better have a gun to go with them.

I already posted data on the price of gold. Looks to me like it is near the all time high. It doesn't move quickly for the most part, but if you start to lose money on it at what price will you bail and what will you put it into?

I still say government bonds are the way to go. They can't drop in value much unless inflation starts to take off an interest rates run up. That also happens slowly and bonds are still more stable than gold.

I say, wait for Tesla to reach below 500 and buy. If it goes below 400 buy like crazy. Below 300 sell it all! No, just kidding. For anytime in the near future Tesla is a great buy at prices significantly lower than today's close of $780. Even with all the rampant losses in the market it still double it's price at the first of the year.

While the market has movements, it doesn't dictate the pricing of any individual stocks. Tesla doesn't move with the market so much. Once they announce the Fremont factory reopening the price will jump hugely. If you don't mind paying tax on it, you can make a lot of money off it. I prefer to pay less tax and buy/sell less often.


You seem to be pushing Tesla pretty hard, what percentage of your life
savings do you have in Tesla? What percentage do you recommend for others?
Mikek

Ricky C
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 3:45 pm   



On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 9:15:03 AM UTC-4, amdx wrote:
Quote:
On 4/30/2020 11:13 PM, Ricky C wrote:
On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 11:28:57 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 10:58:25 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 4:31:25 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:

I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

Something with intrinsic value, something people want and need, is
as good as you can do for storing value. That can include partial
ownership in a solid enterprise, too.


I highly suggest that you not talk to your broker if it costs you any money.
Hi Dan, you certainly have a lot of advice. :^)
Let me first say I'm neither as smart nor as rich as you.
(again with the smile. :^)

I guess I was just feeling that it looks like a very uncertain
situation in the future. And I'd like to tuck ~1/2 our
stock money away for a while... gold seems like the traditional
choice.

By whom? Gold is what people invest in when they are worried about civilization crashing although bullets may be better, but then you'd better have a gun to go with them.

I already posted data on the price of gold. Looks to me like it is near the all time high. It doesn't move quickly for the most part, but if you start to lose money on it at what price will you bail and what will you put it into?

I still say government bonds are the way to go. They can't drop in value much unless inflation starts to take off an interest rates run up. That also happens slowly and bonds are still more stable than gold.

I say, wait for Tesla to reach below 500 and buy. If it goes below 400 buy like crazy. Below 300 sell it all! No, just kidding. For anytime in the near future Tesla is a great buy at prices significantly lower than today's close of $780. Even with all the rampant losses in the market it still double it's price at the first of the year.

While the market has movements, it doesn't dictate the pricing of any individual stocks. Tesla doesn't move with the market so much. Once they announce the Fremont factory reopening the price will jump hugely. If you don't mind paying tax on it, you can make a lot of money off it. I prefer to pay less tax and buy/sell less often.


You seem to be pushing Tesla pretty hard, what percentage of your life
savings do you have in Tesla? What percentage do you recommend for others?
Mikek


I have maybe 10% invested in Tesla. I don't make recommendations for anyone else.

Maybe I haven't been clear. There is a lot of money to be made trading Tesla stock. But there is risk for sure. Not so much that you will lose your shirt because the company goes belly up. But because people will make the wrong decisions about when to buy and sell, mostly because they don't pay attention to the facts.

I'm not immune. Every logical thought was to invest when it dropped below 200. I put about half in but held back and didn't invest all I had set aside for this. From there it moved upward and I never saw that great an opportunity again.

Likewise I sold some that reached the long term capital gains point but missed out on the resent rise. Still, I made plenty on it. I really don't think the price will remain up with the present situation. The market is agreeing with me at the moment. I just need until the end of the month to sell the rest. Then in a quarter or two it will be ready to pop back up.

Regardless of what anyone thinks of the cars, the company has a very solid future ahead. The only threat I see is the long term effects from this virus. If the economy tanks and stays tanked, Tesla might not be able to sell all the cars they make. That would be bad with the debt they are taking on.

--

Rick C.

--+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

dcaster@krl.org
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 9:45 pm   



On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 11:59:52 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
Quote:
On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 10:23:53 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:39:40 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:00:38 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
I'd been thinking about this, but it has official status now.
"Superfluous Demand".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/superfluous-demand-free-fall-whats-upside-re-opening-small-business

My idea is that the Marxist concept of the surplus product of labor
has been going not so much to fat-cat capitalists, but to workers who
spend their wages on silly stuff like premium cable, essential scented
oils, $500 basketball seats, $70K ugly trucks and SUVs, boats that are
rarely used, cruises, wine tours, art studios, like that.

I've noticed the kinds of small businesses that are going under now
and may never come back. Many were silly things like weird nutrients,
strange dance studios, knitting specialties, psychic councelling,
exercize studios next to hilly parks, wine tasting boutiques,
hop-heavy brewpubs, gift stores full of hideous junk.

There's lots of silly electronics and phone/web apps too, highly
derivative ideas that create money-losing angel companies but that
people don't really need. Like $1200 phones.

Mo has two units at ActivSpace, a big building full of small units
rented to anyone at high cost per square foot. It's full of tattoo
artists, art studios, crafts, repair services, skin and hair care, all
kinds of marginally-profitable weird stuff. It rents month-to-month
and people are not paying.


Hmm.. OK I tend to be a frugal type. But I wonder if everyone (in US)
will be a bit more frugal after this? And that will mean less money
moving around... lower GDP...
I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

George H.



Get a copy of " A Random Walk down Wall Street " Buy it used off Abe or Amazon.

I would not recommend selling stocks right now.

Doesn't that depend entirely on the stock?

--

Rick C.

++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209


There are definitely exceptions. The recommendation was for stocks in general, say index 500 funds.

Dan

Ricky C
Guest

Sat May 02, 2020 12:45 am   



On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 3:48:50 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
Quote:
On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 11:59:52 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 10:23:53 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:39:40 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:00:38 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
I'd been thinking about this, but it has official status now.
"Superfluous Demand".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/superfluous-demand-free-fall-whats-upside-re-opening-small-business

My idea is that the Marxist concept of the surplus product of labor
has been going not so much to fat-cat capitalists, but to workers who
spend their wages on silly stuff like premium cable, essential scented
oils, $500 basketball seats, $70K ugly trucks and SUVs, boats that are
rarely used, cruises, wine tours, art studios, like that.

I've noticed the kinds of small businesses that are going under now
and may never come back. Many were silly things like weird nutrients,
strange dance studios, knitting specialties, psychic councelling,
exercize studios next to hilly parks, wine tasting boutiques,
hop-heavy brewpubs, gift stores full of hideous junk.

There's lots of silly electronics and phone/web apps too, highly
derivative ideas that create money-losing angel companies but that
people don't really need. Like $1200 phones.

Mo has two units at ActivSpace, a big building full of small units
rented to anyone at high cost per square foot. It's full of tattoo
artists, art studios, crafts, repair services, skin and hair care, all
kinds of marginally-profitable weird stuff. It rents month-to-month
and people are not paying.


Hmm.. OK I tend to be a frugal type. But I wonder if everyone (in US)
will be a bit more frugal after this? And that will mean less money
moving around... lower GDP...
I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

George H.



Get a copy of " A Random Walk down Wall Street " Buy it used off Abe or Amazon.

I would not recommend selling stocks right now.

Doesn't that depend entirely on the stock?

--

Rick C.

++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

There are definitely exceptions. The recommendation was for stocks in general, say index 500 funds.

Dan


Why would anyone capable of reading and thinking buy into funds and let someone else make your investing decisions for you? That's why I posted the link to xkcd to point out professional investors have no better track record than yourself!

I have a pretty good investment record having made over half a million on stocks. I'm happy with my fees as well. All in all I give myself an A++ rating on my high growth fund.

--

Rick C.

-+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Ricky C
Guest

Sat May 02, 2020 1:45 am   



On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 7:47:00 PM UTC-4, amdx wrote:
Quote:
On 5/1/2020 5:50 PM, Ricky C wrote:
On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 3:48:50 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:

There are definitely exceptions. The recommendation was for stocks in general, say index 500 funds.

Dan

Why would anyone capable of reading and thinking buy into funds and let someone else make your investing decisions for you? That's why I posted the link to xkcd to point out professional investors have no better track record than yourself!

I have a pretty good investment record having made over half a million on stocks. I'm happy with my fees as well. All in all I give myself an A++ rating on my high growth fund.


The S&P 500 is an index, it is not letting someone else make your
investing decisions.


That's exactly what it is if you buy a fund based on the index. The index may not have high volatility, but it does change from time to time and you are not the one making the decisions.

It's all of no point either way. What is important is that what an index has done over the last year, or 3 years or 5 years means diddly squat for investing going forward. If you could invest in a fund going backwards, that would be great! Then the histories would be all you need.


Quote:
I have a pretty good investment record having made over half a
million >on stocks.
My silly index investing in 3500 companies made almost twice that from
2012 to 2017, 6 years of the Obama administration. And during that time
I paid $0 taxes on those gains.


So you didn't cash them out and so have not made the money you claim? What index is this btw? How did you avoid the taxes?


Quote:
But the your good investment record means little, if you started with $2M.
I'm happier with my 0.04% fee. Vanguard's VTSAX


Exactly. But I have posted a lot about my trading history. It's all there.. What did you start with to make your million?


Quote:
I do agree with you on paying someone to manage your money, it has
been shown in several studies the market beats investment managers over
time.
Managers hit home runs for a couple years and then go backwards and end
up getting beat by the market.


That's why I only invest in companies I know a great deal about.

AMD was another of my winner picks. But I never invested in it because I didn't have liquid funds when it was ripe. Later there was the time I told my friend to dump his AMD because they had lost enough ground to Intel they would not be able to regain it (he didn't). Shortly after that AMD won a $2 billion suit against Intel in the EU. lol Now they have dumped most of their fabs (the part that they couldn't keep up with Intel on) and are doing well using the big fab houses. I guess that's the industry now. The nature of silicon processing has made it too expensive to compete with the contract fabs who have the expertise and market share to be the 600 lb gorilla right next to Intel.

BTW, while not all of my were winners, the ones that were typically gain 200 to 300%. Like I said, Tesla has huge potential, upside mostly but shorts make a lot of money on it to, it's all just timing. But long term being long is more sure, you just have to wait long enough. Like I've said, in two months I expect 2nd quarter results to be pretty crappy. Then there is Musk's tweeting which seems to be whacking the stock at the moment. Musk and Trump have a bit in common.

--

Rick C.

-++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

amdx
Guest

Sat May 02, 2020 1:45 am   



On 5/1/2020 5:50 PM, Ricky C wrote:
Quote:
On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 3:48:50 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 11:59:52 PM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 10:23:53 PM UTC-4, dca...@krl.org wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:39:40 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:00:38 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
I'd been thinking about this, but it has official status now.
"Superfluous Demand".

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/superfluous-demand-free-fall-whats-upside-re-opening-small-business

My idea is that the Marxist concept of the surplus product of labor
has been going not so much to fat-cat capitalists, but to workers who
spend their wages on silly stuff like premium cable, essential scented
oils, $500 basketball seats, $70K ugly trucks and SUVs, boats that are
rarely used, cruises, wine tours, art studios, like that.

I've noticed the kinds of small businesses that are going under now
and may never come back. Many were silly things like weird nutrients,
strange dance studios, knitting specialties, psychic councelling,
exercize studios next to hilly parks, wine tasting boutiques,
hop-heavy brewpubs, gift stores full of hideous junk.

There's lots of silly electronics and phone/web apps too, highly
derivative ideas that create money-losing angel companies but that
people don't really need. Like $1200 phones.

Mo has two units at ActivSpace, a big building full of small units
rented to anyone at high cost per square foot. It's full of tattoo
artists, art studios, crafts, repair services, skin and hair care, all
kinds of marginally-profitable weird stuff. It rents month-to-month
and people are not paying.


Hmm.. OK I tend to be a frugal type. But I wonder if everyone (in US)
will be a bit more frugal after this? And that will mean less money
moving around... lower GDP...
I don't want to be a Cassandra, but I worry a crash might come.
And have been thinking about talking to my stock broker guy and moving
~1/2 my assets in stocks to something else for a while. But what
'something else'?

George H.



Get a copy of " A Random Walk down Wall Street " Buy it used off Abe or Amazon.

I would not recommend selling stocks right now.

Doesn't that depend entirely on the stock?

--

Rick C.

++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

There are definitely exceptions. The recommendation was for stocks in general, say index 500 funds.

Dan

Why would anyone capable of reading and thinking buy into funds and let someone else make your investing decisions for you? That's why I posted the link to xkcd to point out professional investors have no better track record than yourself!

I have a pretty good investment record having made over half a million on stocks. I'm happy with my fees as well. All in all I give myself an A++ rating on my high growth fund.


The S&P 500 is an index, it is not letting someone else make your
investing decisions.
> I have a pretty good investment record having made over half a
million >on stocks.
My silly index investing in 3500 companies made almost twice that from
2012 to 2017, 6 years of the Obama administration. And during that time
I paid $0 taxes on those gains.
But the your good investment record means little, if you started with $2M.
I'm happier with my 0.04% fee. Vanguard's VTSAX

I do agree with you on paying someone to manage your money, it has
been shown in several studies the market beats investment managers over
time.
Managers hit home runs for a couple years and then go backwards and end
up getting beat by the market.

Mikek

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