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predicting the future is hard

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John Larkin
Guest

Tue Feb 05, 2019 5:45 am   



https://www.sfchronicle.com/science/article/Mild-winter-predicted-for-California-rain-snow-13318930.php

"No part of the country is favored to have below-average temperatures,
according to NOAA."

https://ktla.com/2019/02/04/sierra-blizzard-drops-so-much-snow-that-some-ski-resorts-close/

We want our warmer-than-normal! It's sleeting in SF and may snow
tonight.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

lunatic fringe electronics


Guest

Tue Feb 05, 2019 6:45 am   



On Tuesday, February 5, 2019 at 3:11:58 PM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:
Quote:
https://www.sfchronicle.com/science/article/Mild-winter-predicted-for-California-rain-snow-13318930.php

"No part of the country is favored to have below-average temperatures,
according to NOAA."

https://ktla.com/2019/02/04/sierra-blizzard-drops-so-much-snow-that-some-ski-resorts-close/

We want our warmer-than-normal! It's sleeting in SF and may snow
tonight.


You will most likely get it. Average temperatures are averaged over a year, even if this is way long than your attention span.

One bit of the climate that is predictable is that it is in - on average - warmer in summer than in winter, so it does make sense to average over a whole year, even if your extremities are feeling chilly right now.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

whit3rd
Guest

Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:45 am   



On Tuesday, February 5, 2019 at 1:28:50 AM UTC-8, nu...@bid.nes wrote:

> Yup, that's a "mild winter" for you. What did you expect from weather predictions much less "climate scientists"?

Winter isn't this week, it's months long. It WAS a milld winter, and despite a cold snap, might
still be.

Snow, though, is fun.

nuny@bid.nes
Guest

Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:45 am   



On Monday, February 4, 2019 at 8:11:58 PM UTC-8, John Larkin wrote:
Quote:
https://www.sfchronicle.com/science/article/Mild-winter-predicted-for-California-rain-snow-13318930.php

"No part of the country is favored to have below-average temperatures,
according to NOAA."

https://ktla.com/2019/02/04/sierra-blizzard-drops-so-much-snow-that-some-ski-resorts-close/

We want our warmer-than-normal! It's sleeting in SF and may snow
tonight.


Yup, that's a "mild winter" for you. What did you expect from weather predictions much less "climate scientists"?

Predicting the future is easy; getting it right is hard. Unless you observe the ast and extrapolate *reasonably* into the future.

For example, when the "polar vortex" neuters the brass monkeys on the East Coast and in the Midwest, it's relatively warm in the West. A week or so later the situation reverses. Here a couple states North of you we just got our first snow of the season, right on schedule.

This is not a new phenomenon- it just has a new name.


Mark L. Fergerson

George Herold
Guest

Tue Feb 05, 2019 2:45 pm   



On Monday, February 4, 2019 at 11:11:58 PM UTC-5, John Larkin wrote:
Quote:
https://www.sfchronicle.com/science/article/Mild-winter-predicted-for-California-rain-snow-13318930.php

"No part of the country is favored to have below-average temperatures,
according to NOAA."

https://ktla.com/2019/02/04/sierra-blizzard-drops-so-much-snow-that-some-ski-resorts-close/

We want our warmer-than-normal! It's sleeting in SF and may snow
tonight.


Sunday was beautiful here, mid 50's (F) and sunny. The creek was still
frozen from the 'polar vortex' and we (me and the dogs) went down it.
Yesterday the creek was raging like it was spring. Globar warming should
mean more mixing/ fluctuations/ extremes. Looking at the noise in
temperature data would be interesting.

George H.
Quote:



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

lunatic fringe electronics


Winfield Hill
Guest

Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:45 pm   



John Larkin wrote...
Quote:

We want our warmer-than-normal! It's sleeting in SF
and may snow tonight.


Switch to plan B, after the blizzard ends, you can
take a few days off and enjoy some marvelous skiing.


--
Thanks,
- Win

John Larkin
Guest

Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:45 pm   



On Tue, 5 Feb 2019 01:33:49 -0800 (PST), whit3rd <whit3rd_at_gmail.com>
wrote:

Quote:
On Tuesday, February 5, 2019 at 1:28:50 AM UTC-8, nu...@bid.nes wrote:

Yup, that's a "mild winter" for you. What did you expect from weather predictions much less "climate scientists"?

Winter isn't this week, it's months long. It WAS a milld winter, and despite a cold snap, might
still be.

Snow, though, is fun.


After considering the NOAA-based warning to not buy a season pass to a
ski area, I got two.


--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

lunatic fringe electronics


Guest

Tue Feb 05, 2019 6:45 pm   



On Tuesday, February 5, 2019 at 11:47:12 AM UTC-5, John Larkin wrote:
Quote:
On 5 Feb 2019 06:52:27 -0800, Winfield Hill <hill_at_rowland.harvard.edu
wrote:

John Larkin wrote...

We want our warmer-than-normal! It's sleeting in SF
and may snow tonight.

Switch to plan B, after the blizzard ends, you can
take a few days off and enjoy some marvelous skiing.

Right.

I was considering setting up a small electronics workbench/lab in the
cabin, so I can justify more time up there, but that seems like a big
deal. In addition to the usual scope/dvm/cables/soldering stuff, I'd
need a Mantis and a giant supply of parts.

There is no US mail service there, but UPS and FedEx will deliver. I
guess I could have stuff overnighted.


That's one large advantage of working in software. Everything is instant delivery.


Rick C.

- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

John Larkin
Guest

Tue Feb 05, 2019 6:45 pm   



On 5 Feb 2019 06:52:27 -0800, Winfield Hill <hill_at_rowland.harvard.edu>
wrote:

Quote:
John Larkin wrote...

We want our warmer-than-normal! It's sleeting in SF
and may snow tonight.

Switch to plan B, after the blizzard ends, you can
take a few days off and enjoy some marvelous skiing.


Right.

I was considering setting up a small electronics workbench/lab in the
cabin, so I can justify more time up there, but that seems like a big
deal. In addition to the usual scope/dvm/cables/soldering stuff, I'd
need a Mantis and a giant supply of parts.

There is no US mail service there, but UPS and FedEx will deliver. I
guess I could have stuff overnighted.


--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

lunatic fringe electronics

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