Bret Cahill
Guest
Fri Sep 23, 2011 5:19 pm
Most have no reference, no way of telling the signal from the noise so
they can integrate their entire life away and have nothing to show for
it.
Anyone who consistently does better than the DJIA has something akin
to a reference. The more he integrates over time the more wealth he
accumulates.
But supposing the reference became available to everyone?
Bret Cahill
Jason
Guest
Fri Sep 23, 2011 5:26 pm
On Sep 23, 11:19 am, Bret Cahill <Bret_E_Cah...@yahoo.com> wrote:
Quote:
Most have no reference, no way of telling the signal from the noise so
they can integrate their entire life away and have nothing to show for
it.
Anyone who consistently does better than the DJIA has something akin
to a reference. The more he integrates over time the more wealth he
accumulates.
But supposing the reference became available to everyone?
Bret Cahill
Not sure what your question is. One school of thinking based on the
efficient market hypothesis would say that there can be no privately-
known reference; asset prices at any given time reflect all
information that would affect their value (this is certainly ripe for
debate with respect to insider trading). In the case where your
reference became available to everyone, any advantage to be had by
using it would disappear. A summary conclusion of the hypothesis is
that that over the long term, you can't beat average market returns
when your returns are adjusted for the risk that you take on.
Not saying that the EMH is true, just presenting one potential outcome
of your scenario.
Jason
Les Cargill
Guest
Fri Sep 23, 2011 6:00 pm
Bret Cahill wrote:
Quote:
Most have no reference, no way of telling the signal from the noise so
they can integrate their entire life away and have nothing to show for
it.
Anyone who consistently does better than the DJIA has something akin
to a reference. The more he integrates over time the more wealth he
accumulates.
But supposing the reference became available to everyone?
Bret Cahill
It's not likely that there is a reference. Regardless of
the denigration of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis,
the aphorism "The market can stay crazy longer than
you can stay solvent" still holds.
--
Les Cargill
Les Cargill
Guest
Fri Sep 23, 2011 6:30 pm
Bret Cahill wrote:
Quote:
Most have no reference, no way of telling the signal from the noise so
they can integrate their entire life away and have nothing to show for
it.
Anyone who consistently does better than the DJIA has something akin
to a reference. The more he integrates over time the more wealth he
accumulates.
But supposing the reference became available to everyone?
Bret Cahill
It's not likely that there is a reference. Regardless of
the denigration of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis,
the aphorism "The market can stay crazy longer than
you can stay solvent" still holds.
Buffet seems to still be solvent.
Bret Cahill
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_safety_%28financial%29
--
Les Cargill
Jerry Avins
Guest
Fri Sep 23, 2011 7:23 pm
On 9/23/2011 2:16 PM, Bret Cahill wrote:
...
Quote:
Buffet seems to still be solvent.
That's because he thinks he doesn't pay enough tax.
Jerry
--
Engineering is the art of making what you want from things you can get.
Bret Cahill
Guest
Fri Sep 23, 2011 8:16 pm
Quote:
Most have no reference, no way of telling the signal from the noise so
they can integrate their entire life away and have nothing to show for
it.
Anyone who consistently does better than the DJIA has something akin
to a reference. The more he integrates over time the more wealth he
accumulates.
But supposing the reference became available to everyone?
Bret Cahill
It's not likely that there is a reference. Regardless of
the denigration of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis,
the aphorism "The market can stay crazy longer than
you can stay solvent" still holds.
Buffet seems to still be solvent.
Bret Cahill
Michael A. Terrell
Guest
Fri Sep 23, 2011 10:07 pm
Jerry Avins wrote:
Quote:
On 9/23/2011 2:16 PM, Bret Cahill wrote:
...
Buffet seems to still be solvent.
That's because he thinks he doesn't pay enough tax.
He doesn't pay enough postage for all that damn junk mail. It's no
wonder the US post office is in trouble. Make people pay first class
rates for junk mail, and they would have plenty of cash.
--
You can't have a sense of humor, if you have no sense.
Bill Bowden
Guest
Sat Sep 24, 2011 3:30 am
On Sep 23, 12:23 pm, Jerry Avins <j...@ieee.org> wrote:
Quote:
On 9/23/2011 2:16 PM, Bret Cahill wrote:
...
Buffet seems to still be solvent.
That's because he thinks he doesn't pay enough tax.
Jerry
--
Engineering is the art of making what you want from things you can get.
If Buffet wanted to pay more tax, he could easily make a donation to
reduce the public debt at the site below. But he doesn't choose to do
that, he wants someone else to do it.
https://www.pay.gov/paygov/forms/formInstance.html?agencyFormId=23779454
-Bill
Jerry Avins
Guest
Sat Sep 24, 2011 3:52 am
On 9/23/2011 9:30 PM, Bill Bowden wrote:
Quote:
On Sep 23, 12:23 pm, Jerry Avins<j...@ieee.org> wrote:
On 9/23/2011 2:16 PM, Bret Cahill wrote:
...
Buffet seems to still be solvent.
That's because he thinks he doesn't pay enough tax.
Jerry
--
Engineering is the art of making what you want from things you can get.
If Buffet wanted to pay more tax, he could easily make a donation to
reduce the public debt at the site below. But he doesn't choose to do
that, he wants someone else to do it.
He wants to do it as part of a team.
...
Jerry
--
Engineering is the art of making what you want from things you can get.
Jerry Avins
Guest
Sat Sep 24, 2011 3:53 am
On 9/23/2011 6:07 PM, Michael A. Terrell wrote:
Quote:
Jerry Avins wrote:
On 9/23/2011 2:16 PM, Bret Cahill wrote:
...
Buffet seems to still be solvent.
That's because he thinks he doesn't pay enough tax.
He doesn't pay enough postage for all that damn junk mail. It's no
wonder the US post office is in trouble. Make people pay first class
rates for junk mail, and they would have plenty of cash.
Does Buffet send much junk mail?
Jerry
--
Engineering is the art of making what you want from things you can get.
Michael A. Terrell
Guest
Sat Sep 24, 2011 6:14 am
Jerry Avins wrote:
Quote:
On 9/23/2011 6:07 PM, Michael A. Terrell wrote:
Jerry Avins wrote:
On 9/23/2011 2:16 PM, Bret Cahill wrote:
...
Buffet seems to still be solvent.
That's because he thinks he doesn't pay enough tax.
He doesn't pay enough postage for all that damn junk mail. It's no
wonder the US post office is in trouble. Make people pay first class
rates for junk mail, and they would have plenty of cash.
Does Buffet send much junk mail?
Did you really ask that question? I get about three pieces a week
from Geico, one of his overhyped companies. I'm happy with my truck
insurance, and I despise lying rubber geckos with phony accents. Over
a years time, about 80% of the junk mail I get comes from one of his
companies.
--
You can't have a sense of humor, if you have no sense.
