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Ricky C
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 10:45 am   



I just read that yet another port processing plant has closed because 40%, 900 workers tested positive for this disease. The plant closures are adding up and meat is going to be in short supply soon. So it seems we are damned if we do, damned if we don't.

So ignoring the virus to the extent that we don't force people into contact that will spread the virus like wildfire will still result in many businesses closing because the people working there will get sick. Trying to shut down and not spread the virus isn't working, which we have to assume is because people aren't following the orders.

The only countries that have beaten this virus took significant measures to test and isolate everyone who potentially was exposed and/or isolated everyone with stay at home orders. So why can't the US and the UK and other countries do the same thing?

What is wrong with this country that a simple virus defeats us?

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Piotr Wyderski
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 10:45 am   



Ricky C wrote:

> What is wrong with this country that a simple virus defeats us?

The reason is offshoring, which used to be advertised as a great idea.
In result a country that was able to send people to the Moon can no
longer produce rubber gloves or cloth face masks on its own. Marvelous.
Same in the EU.

It's time to redefine alliances with China in the center, the existing
solutions have simply failed recently.

Best regards, Piotr

Ricky C
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 10:45 am   



On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 5:07:46 AM UTC-4, Piotr Wyderski wrote:
Quote:
Ricky C wrote:

What is wrong with this country that a simple virus defeats us?

The reason is offshoring, which used to be advertised as a great idea.
In result a country that was able to send people to the Moon can no
longer produce rubber gloves or cloth face masks on its own. Marvelous.
Same in the EU.

It's time to redefine alliances with China in the center, the existing
solutions have simply failed recently.

Best regards, Piotr


So you think the virus is continuing to spread because of a lack of PPE and not the number of people not following the stay at home orders?

--

Rick C.

+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Piotr Wyderski
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 11:45 am   



Ricky C wrote:

> So you think the virus is continuing to spread because of a lack of PPE and not the number of people not following the stay at home orders?

The virus is continuing to spread despite the stay at home orders. The
lack of PPE is certainly not helping.

Given the number of already infected people and their almost uniform
geographical distribution, we have already lost the battle of stopping
the disease. Hence the governments are releasing the ineffective
lockdown orders. You and I are going to be infected, sooner or later.

Best regards, Piotr


Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 2:45 pm   



Piotr Wyderski <peter.pan_at_neverland.mil> wrote in
news:r8gscd$1o0m$1_at_gioia.aioe.org:

Quote:
Ricky C wrote:

So you think the virus is continuing to spread because of a lack
of PPE and not the number of people not following the stay at
home orders?

The virus is continuing to spread despite the stay at home orders.
The lack of PPE is certainly not helping.


You are an abject idiot. It is NOT "continuing to spread".
Testing is expanding and thus so are the numbers, you dopey fucking
retard.

Quote:
Given the number of already infected people and their almost
uniform geographical distribution, we have already lost the battle
of stopping the disease.


You are uniformly retarded.

Quote:
Hence the governments are releasing the
ineffective lockdown orders.


No. They are sucking up to Trump's "restart" mentality and are
ignoreing the medical and science comminuty's statements that we are
NOT yet ready to re-mingle. Crying about the economy in a viral
epidemic outbreak is NOT jacking off at the mouth about "ineffective
lockdown orders.

Hey dumbfuck... they WOULD HAVE BEEN EFFECTIVE ID TRUMP HAD
STARTED in late January. Instead, the retarded murderous piece of
shit played it down.

You make some of the most retarded, not thought through remarks in
the group, old man. Maybe it is time to give those two neurons a
rest.

Quote:
You and I are going to be infected,
sooner or later.


Then run right out to a covid morgue and kiss a few corpses, you
STUPID FUCK! Then kill yourself, Please. Stupid fucks with your
mindset sully the human gene pool.

Quote:
Best regards, Piotr

Also pure bullshit.


Ricky C
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 3:45 pm   



On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 6:07:15 AM UTC-4, Piotr Wyderski wrote:
Quote:
Ricky C wrote:

So you think the virus is continuing to spread because of a lack of PPE and not the number of people not following the stay at home orders?

The virus is continuing to spread despite the stay at home orders. The
lack of PPE is certainly not helping.


I guess I'm asking why? Obviously isolation should do the job. We don't even need to get the R0 number down to zero. We just have to get it enough below 1.0 that the new infections drops more rapidly than it's doing now.

The lock down in China worked a charm. Copious testing has worked in South Korea and Norway. There's no reason why we can't make these things work here in the US and throughout Europe.

I can only think that no small part of this is the fact that the leaders at the highest levels of our government are not taking the disease seriously. They can't even be bothered with wearing masks.

This actually reminds me a bit of the AIDS epidemic. People were in denial about the possibility of catching the disease and passing it on and so it did grow rapidly. It took years and a lot of education to get it on a downward slope by people being responsible.


Quote:
Given the number of already infected people and their almost uniform
geographical distribution, we have already lost the battle of stopping
the disease. Hence the governments are releasing the ineffective
lockdown orders. You and I are going to be infected, sooner or later.


Not me. I can wait it out. Once everyone else is back to work sharing the burden and the virus, I will be able to get nearly everything I want by mail order. Then I can wait it out and let everyone else deal with this disease. One thing the common person has right is that it will eventually burn itself out. It seems to have a higher natural infection rate than the flu and will impact much more of the population than the flu does.

The only real concern is whether it will mutate enough so it produces a newly infectious strain in months or years that sweeps us again. Then I'd be worried. There's no indication this disease will be any easier to make a vaccine for than the flu.

--

Rick C.

-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Bill Sloman
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 3:45 pm   



On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 11:59:52 PM UTC+10, Ricky C wrote:
Quote:
On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 6:07:15 AM UTC-4, Piotr Wyderski wrote:
Ricky C wrote:

So you think the virus is continuing to spread because of a lack of PPE and not the number of people not following the stay at home orders?

The virus is continuing to spread despite the stay at home orders. The
lack of PPE is certainly not helping.

I guess I'm asking why? Obviously isolation should do the job. We don't even need to get the R0 number down to zero. We just have to get it enough below 1.0 that the new infections drops more rapidly than it's doing now.

The lock down in China worked a charm.


Lock down, vigorous contact tracing, and rigorous isolation of anybody who might have been infected for 14 days after the possible contact.

There was a New Scientist article that put a lot more weight on the contact tracing than the lock down - though the lock down makes contact tracing a lot easier.

The current Australian program - which does seem to be working pretty well - has put a lot of effort into contact tracing.

> Copious testing has worked in South Korea and Norway. There's no reason why we can't make these things work here in the US and throughout Europe.

But the fact that they didn't work in Italy, Spain and the UK does demonstrate that it's all too easy to do it badly - or at least not well enough.

> I can only think that no small part of this is the fact that the leaders at the highest levels of our government are not taking the disease seriously. They can't even be bothered with wearing masks.

Neither do ours. There aren't enough masks around for people who really need them, so they go where they are most effective.

Quote:
This actually reminds me a bit of the AIDS epidemic. People were in denial about the possibility of catching the disease and passing it on and so it did grow rapidly. It took years and a lot of education to get it on a downward slope by people being responsible.

Given the number of already infected people and their almost uniform
geographical distribution, we have already lost the battle of stopping
the disease. Hence the governments are releasing the ineffective
lockdown orders. You and I are going to be infected, sooner or later.

Not me. I can wait it out. Once everyone else is back to work sharing the burden and the virus, I will be able to get nearly everything I want by mail order. Then I can wait it out and let everyone else deal with this disease. One thing the common person has right is that it will eventually burn itself out. It seems to have a higher natural infection rate than the flu and will impact much more of the population than the flu does.


The flu seems to infect everybody, but people are immune to some strains because they have caught them before and been vaccinated against others. Covid-19 is a bit too new for that.

> The only real concern is whether it will mutate enough so it produces a newly infectious strain in months or years that sweeps us again. Then I'd be worried. There's no indication this disease will be any easier to make a vaccine for than the flu.

The flu is easy enough to make a vaccine for, but it mutates fast enough to evade the antibodies against last seasons flu. The scheme to make a vaccine produces lots of copies of just the receptor-binding segment of the corona virus spike protein - which is conserved - promises a vaccine that will immunise against most strains of the virus.

There's no guarantee that it will deliver. A similar scheme to attack the conserved receptor-binding element of flu virus has been around for while, but hasn't delivered a broad spectrum vaccine yet.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

whit3rd
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 5:45 pm   



On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 1:55:19 AM UTC-7, Ricky C wrote:
Quote:
I just read that yet another port processing plant has closed because 40%, 900 workers tested positive for this disease. The plant closures are adding up and meat is going to be in short supply soon. So it seems we are damned if we do, damned if we don't.

What is wrong with this country that a simple virus defeats us?


Consolidation of work into Big Business. If there were a dozen processing
operations with 80 workers each, a disease could shut down five of 'em
when 40% get ill, and we'd still have capacity.

Urban concentration of people requires a certain lowering of personal-space, and so
does economic intolerance of independent subunits. It can work and be efficient
(high-tech electronics mainly needs a variety of subcontractors locally acessible)
or it can be a wrenching disconnect (higher authority 'managing' teachers has resulted
in some unhealthy conflicts, like the over-test-centric No Child Left Behind fiascos).

Everyone knew the risk of densification in regards to pubic health, and we knew it
would strike randomly as a health crisis. Now, it has. The 'efficiency' of high
concentrations of interconnected workers comes at
exactly this cost in... reliability of the overall society during a pandemic.

Efficiency benefit from dense populations is on the side of the microbe.

Piotr Wyderski
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 6:45 pm   



Ricky C wrote:

> I guess I'm asking why? Obviously isolation should do the job. We don't even need to get the R0 number down to zero. We just have to get it enough below 1.0 that the new infections drops more rapidly than it's doing now.

Then the very same isolation should eradicate common cold or flu as
well, which didn't happen. We still don't know what the other reservoirs
of the virus might be. Are you going to kill all the bats on the planet,
for example?

And this is not limited only to animals. There are countries which
cannot afford the level of healthcare we have, even remotely. Some day a
plane from one of them might land and then everything will start all
over again. In order to win we must try to fix the problem globally,
which is not happening nowadays. Every single country pursues its own
unique attempts,
sometimes they are even stealing the PPE belonging to their neighbours
to supplement their own stock.

> The lock down in China worked a charm.

Provided that the Chinese reports are, errr..., not using creatively the
concept of truth...

> There's no reason why we can't make these things work here in the US and throughout Europe.

In Poland we have been locked down since March 10, with the police
helicopters constantly monitoring major cities for illegal gatherings
and so what? 228 new cases only today and it is still early evening.
On May 6 the schools are supposed to restart their activities; large
shopping centers on May 4. We have been in isolation for almost two
months and the disease is quickly spreading. Three weeks you say?

Now the EU is mostly switching to the Swedish model: let regular people
live their lives and isolate the most vulnerable ones.

> Not me. I can wait it out.

No, you can't, I'm afraid. The virus as we know it or its mutations are
here to stay. Forever or for at least a very long time. The second
strike is expected to hit us this autumn.

Some of us will develop immunity one way or another, some else will
perish. We are way past the point of no return, so catching it is just a
matter of time. The US alone have 1.1e6 confirmed cases today, probably
3x that number not diagnosed. This already is on the order of 1% of your
population and still growing. Sorry.

Best regards, Piotr

John Larkin
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 6:45 pm   



On Fri, 1 May 2020 09:11:23 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd_at_gmail.com>
wrote:

Quote:
On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 1:55:19 AM UTC-7, Ricky C wrote:
I just read that yet another port processing plant has closed because 40%, 900 workers tested positive for this disease. The plant closures are adding up and meat is going to be in short supply soon. So it seems we are damned if we do, damned if we don't.

What is wrong with this country that a simple virus defeats us?

Consolidation of work into Big Business. If there were a dozen processing
operations with 80 workers each, a disease could shut down five of 'em
when 40% get ill, and we'd still have capacity.

Urban concentration of people requires a certain lowering of personal-space, and so
does economic intolerance of independent subunits. It can work and be efficient
(high-tech electronics mainly needs a variety of subcontractors locally acessible)


About the only local subcontractors that we use are the janitor
service and the guy who delivers donuts. And of course the UPS guy.

We are having the janitor service come in now every night and
sanitize. They wanted $20 an hour, but we insisted on $40.


Quote:
or it can be a wrenching disconnect (higher authority 'managing' teachers has resulted
in some unhealthy conflicts, like the over-test-centric No Child Left Behind fiascos).

Everyone knew the risk of densification in regards to pubic health, and we knew it
would strike randomly as a health crisis. Now, it has. The 'efficiency' of high
concentrations of interconnected workers comes at
exactly this cost in... reliability of the overall society during a pandemic.

Efficiency benefit from dense populations is on the side of the microbe.


Yes. The R factor is a radical function of population density.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

John Larkin
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 7:45 pm   



On Fri, 1 May 2020 19:05:39 +0200, Piotr Wyderski
<peter.pan_at_neverland.mil> wrote:

Quote:
Ricky C wrote:

I guess I'm asking why? Obviously isolation should do the job. We don't even need to get the R0 number down to zero. We just have to get it enough below 1.0 that the new infections drops more rapidly than it's doing now.

Then the very same isolation should eradicate common cold or flu as
well, which didn't happen. We still don't know what the other reservoirs
of the virus might be. Are you going to kill all the bats on the planet,
for example?

And this is not limited only to animals. There are countries which
cannot afford the level of healthcare we have, even remotely. Some day a
plane from one of them might land and then everything will start all
over again.


Exactly. The more we lock down, the more our population is fertile for
reinfection. Even with a 100' wall around the US, and airports shut
down forever, there will be reservoirs of virus here for years, passed
around silently.

It's not practical to test the entire US population every week and
stomp out new seeds.






In order to win we must try to fix the problem globally,
Quote:
which is not happening nowadays. Every single country pursues its own
unique attempts,
sometimes they are even stealing the PPE belonging to their neighbours
to supplement their own stock.

The lock down in China worked a charm.

Provided that the Chinese reports are, errr..., not using creatively the
concept of truth...

There's no reason why we can't make these things work here in the US and throughout Europe.

In Poland we have been locked down since March 10, with the police
helicopters constantly monitoring major cities for illegal gatherings
and so what? 228 new cases only today and it is still early evening.
On May 6 the schools are supposed to restart their activities; large
shopping centers on May 4. We have been in isolation for almost two
months and the disease is quickly spreading. Three weeks you say?


Some people propose two years.

Quote:

Now the EU is mostly switching to the Swedish model: let regular people
live their lives and isolate the most vulnerable ones.

Not me. I can wait it out.

No, you can't, I'm afraid. The virus as we know it or its mutations are
here to stay. Forever or for at least a very long time. The second
strike is expected to hit us this autumn.

Some of us will develop immunity one way or another, some else will
perish. We are way past the point of no return, so catching it is just a
matter of time. The US alone have 1.1e6 confirmed cases today, probably
3x that number not diagnosed. This already is on the order of 1% of your
population and still growing. Sorry.


30% antibody positive in some places.

Even in California, random population antibody tests are coming back
in the 4% range.

Colorado, sparsely populated, has tests coming in at the 7% to 18%
range.

Too bad that we don't have data from past years' winter colds and flu.
This pattern may not in fact be novel.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

George Herold
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 7:45 pm   



On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 4:55:19 AM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
> I just read that yet another port processing plant has closed because 40%, 900 workers tested positive for this disease. The plant closures are adding up and meat is going to be in short supply soon. So it seems we are damned if we do, damned if we don't.

A farmer friend (Bruce) is slaughtering another cow.
I'd buy more meat if I had any more room in my
freezer. We had Bruce T-bones the other night.
Umm.

George H.
Quote:

So ignoring the virus to the extent that we don't force people into contact that will spread the virus like wildfire will still result in many businesses closing because the people working there will get sick. Trying to shut down and not spread the virus isn't working, which we have to assume is because people aren't following the orders.

The only countries that have beaten this virus took significant measures to test and isolate everyone who potentially was exposed and/or isolated everyone with stay at home orders. So why can't the US and the UK and other countries do the same thing?

What is wrong with this country that a simple virus defeats us?

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209


John Larkin
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 7:45 pm   



On Fri, 1 May 2020 20:11:34 +0200, Piotr Wyderski
<peter.pan_at_neverland.mil> wrote:

Quote:
John Larkin wrote:

Exactly. The more we lock down, the more our population is fertile for
reinfection. Even with a 100' wall around the US, and airports shut
down forever, there will be reservoirs of virus here for years, passed
around silently.

It's not practical to test the entire US population every week and
stomp out new seeds.

It shocks me that this kind of stuff needs to be explained on an
engineering newsgroup.

Best regards, Piotr


Sadly, I'm not shocked.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

Piotr Wyderski
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 7:45 pm   



John Larkin wrote:

Quote:
Exactly. The more we lock down, the more our population is fertile for
reinfection. Even with a 100' wall around the US, and airports shut
down forever, there will be reservoirs of virus here for years, passed
around silently.

It's not practical to test the entire US population every week and
stomp out new seeds.


It shocks me that this kind of stuff needs to be explained on an
engineering newsgroup.

Best regards, Piotr

Tom Gardner
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 7:45 pm   



On 01/05/20 18:46, John Larkin wrote:
Quote:
On Fri, 1 May 2020 19:05:39 +0200, Piotr Wyderski
peter.pan_at_neverland.mil> wrote:

Ricky C wrote:

I guess I'm asking why? Obviously isolation should do the job. We don't even need to get the R0 number down to zero. We just have to get it enough below 1.0 that the new infections drops more rapidly than it's doing now.

Then the very same isolation should eradicate common cold or flu as
well, which didn't happen. We still don't know what the other reservoirs
of the virus might be. Are you going to kill all the bats on the planet,
for example?

And this is not limited only to animals. There are countries which
cannot afford the level of healthcare we have, even remotely. Some day a
plane from one of them might land and then everything will start all
over again.

Exactly. The more we lock down, the more our population is fertile for
reinfection.


I don't see why. Surely a correct statement would be "The
more we lock down, the *same* our population is fertile
for reinfection.

Quote:
Even with a 100' wall around the US, and airports shut
down forever, there will be reservoirs of virus here for years, passed
around silently.


Yup Sad Just as there are for measles and bubonic plague.

Hopefully the reasons we don't panic about such things
can, /in time/, be replicated.


Quote:
It's not practical to test the entire US population every week and
stomp out new seeds.


You don't need to, any more than you have to stop
all cases of measles.

The balance is still poorly understood and is being
investigated.


Quote:
In Poland we have been locked down since March 10, with the police
helicopters constantly monitoring major cities for illegal gatherings
and so what? 228 new cases only today and it is still early evening.
On May 6 the schools are supposed to restart their activities; large
shopping centers on May 4. We have been in isolation for almost two
months and the disease is quickly spreading. Three weeks you say?

Some people propose two years.


Not the sane people.

There are, hopefully, halfway houses, e.g. relax the
reimpose when infections pick up again. We lack the
detailed information about the infection dynamics to
be able to define the exact relax/reimpose triggers.

As I noted whe lockdowns were imposed, it will be
very interesting to observe what happens when various
lockdowns around the world are relaxed. Not rocket
science, but such thoughts seem to be more forward
thinking than many people's :(


Quote:
Now the EU is mostly switching to the Swedish model: let regular people
live their lives and isolate the most vulnerable ones.

Not me. I can wait it out.

No, you can't, I'm afraid. The virus as we know it or its mutations are
here to stay. Forever or for at least a very long time. The second
strike is expected to hit us this autumn.

Some of us will develop immunity one way or another, some else will
perish. We are way past the point of no return, so catching it is just a
matter of time. The US alone have 1.1e6 confirmed cases today, probably
3x that number not diagnosed. This already is on the order of 1% of your
population and still growing. Sorry.

30% antibody positive in some places.

Even in California, random population antibody tests are coming back
in the 4% range.

Colorado, sparsely populated, has tests coming in at the 7% to 18%
range.


My understanding is that the selectivity and specificity
of the current tests leaves a lot to be desired. I'm also
certain that there are political and commercial interests
that will be heavily promoting certain courses of action,
using some disreputable tactics.

Hence I regard such figures as untrustworthy at the moment.



Quote:
Too bad that we don't have data from past years' winter colds and flu.
This pattern may not in fact be novel.


Some aspects of the pattern aren't particularly novel,
but the seriousness of an infection certainly is.

I've got several strikes against me as it is: I'm male,
over 60, possibly a relevant heart issue, I /don't/ smoke(!?),
hypertension controlled by ACE drugs. Hence I sure as
hell hope I don't catch it. If I do, there's an uncomfortable
probability it will kill me (or worse, cripple me).

As I said to my daughter, I'll count the next year a success
if we are both alive at the end of it.

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