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John Larkin
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 8:45 pm   



On Fri, 01 May 2020 11:25:23 -0700, John Larkin
<jlarkin_at_highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:

Quote:
On Fri, 1 May 2020 20:11:34 +0200, Piotr Wyderski
peter.pan_at_neverland.mil> wrote:

John Larkin wrote:

Exactly. The more we lock down, the more our population is fertile for
reinfection. Even with a 100' wall around the US, and airports shut
down forever, there will be reservoirs of virus here for years, passed
around silently.

It's not practical to test the entire US population every week and
stomp out new seeds.

It shocks me that this kind of stuff needs to be explained on an
engineering newsgroup.

Best regards, Piotr

Sadly, I'm not shocked.


Every engineering school should have a mandatory course, How To Think
201.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com


Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 9:45 pm   



John Larkin <jlarkin_at_highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote in
news:6aqoaflojafsaool80p9qggo3dr9qv5lu1_at_4ax.com:

Quote:
On Fri, 1 May 2020 20:11:34 +0200, Piotr Wyderski
peter.pan_at_neverland.mil> wrote:

John Larkin wrote:

Exactly. The more we lock down, the more our population is
fertile for reinfection. Even with a 100' wall around the US,
and airports shut down forever, there will be reservoirs of
virus here for years, passed around silently.

It's not practical to test the entire US population every week
and stomp out new seeds.

It shocks me that this kind of stuff needs to be explained on an
engineering newsgroup.

Best regards, Piotr

Sadly, I'm not shocked.


Sadder still... you are both fucking braindead by 21st century
intelligence standards.


Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 9:45 pm   



George Herold <ggherold_at_gmail.com> wrote in
news:c319d369-6fc3-4181-a8d9-deb813e447b3_at_googlegroups.com:

Quote:
On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 4:55:19 AM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
I just read that yet another port processing plant has closed
because 40%
, 900 workers tested positive for this disease. The plant
closures are adding up and meat is going to be in short supply
soon. So it seems we are damned if we do, damned if we don't.

A farmer friend (Bruce) is slaughtering another cow.
I'd buy more meat if I had any more room in my
freezer. We had Bruce T-bones the other night.
Umm.


snip retarded crap.

Your farmer friend should truck them down to Mexico and give them
to a starving nation instead of slaughtering them. Same for the pork
industry.

Y'all motherfuckers 'is stupid' for not giving a single decision
you make any fucking thought.

Michael Terrell
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 9:45 pm   



On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 4:55:19 AM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
Quote:
I just read that yet another port processing plant has closed because 40%, 900 workers tested positive for this disease. The plant closures are adding up and meat is going to be in short supply soon. So it seems we are damned if we do, damned if we don't.

So ignoring the virus to the extent that we don't force people into contact that will spread the virus like wildfire will still result in many businesses closing because the people working there will get sick. Trying to shut down and not spread the virus isn't working, which we have to assume is because people aren't following the orders.

The only countries that have beaten this virus took significant measures to test and isolate everyone who potentially was exposed and/or isolated everyone with stay at home orders. So why can't the US and the UK and other countries do the same thing?

What is wrong with this country that a simple virus defeats us?


> - Tesla:

https://www.bizpacreview.com/2020/05/01/elon-musks-law-and-order-violations-continue-915759


Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 9:45 pm   



Piotr Wyderski <peter.pan_at_neverland.mil> wrote in
news:r8hook$1lcs$1_at_gioia.aioe.org:

Quote:
John Larkin wrote:

Exactly. The more we lock down, the more our population is
fertile for reinfection.


Bullshit, you fucking total retard!

The longer we stay apart the longer the labs have to get an
antibody direct attack shot and a vaccine shot.

Quote:
Even with a 100' wall around the US, and
airports shut down forever, there will be reservoirs of virus
here for years, passed around silently.


Goddamn you fucking TrumpTards are fucking stupid!

Quote:
It's not practical to test the entire US population every week
and stomp out new seeds.

It shocks me that this kind of stuff needs to be explained on an
engineering newsgroup.


Your Dunning-Kruger effect is glaringly obvious. Nice try though,
putz.


Quote:

Best regards, Piotr

You have NO regards for anyone, you lying putz!


More bullshit... in an engineering group. "This kind of stuff"
(you) needs to be flushed.


Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 9:45 pm   



John Larkin <jlarkin_at_highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote in
news:uruoaf1he6d6p62u6jmd0vil08ks3ro39m_at_4ax.com:

Quote:
On Fri, 01 May 2020 11:25:23 -0700, John Larkin
jlarkin_at_highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:

On Fri, 1 May 2020 20:11:34 +0200, Piotr Wyderski
peter.pan_at_neverland.mil> wrote:

John Larkin wrote:

Exactly. The more we lock down, the more our population is
fertile for reinfection. Even with a 100' wall around the US,
and airports shut down forever, there will be reservoirs of
virus here for years, passed around silently.

It's not practical to test the entire US population every week
and stomp out new seeds.

It shocks me that this kind of stuff needs to be explained on an
engineering newsgroup.

Best regards, Piotr

Sadly, I'm not shocked.

Every engineering school should have a mandatory course, How To
Think 201.


You BOTH failed before you even showed up.

You retarded fucks have no clue about transmissiblity or any other
aspect of this when you express retarded 'observations' with no basis
in fact or science.

Nobody said a goddamned thing about testing the entire population
each week to "stomp out new seeds". That is the most retarded claim
you uninformed jackasses have spouted yet.

You retarded fucks have made this group a stupid vector
transmission node, and your stupid is spreading to others. You dumb
motherfuckers should be shot. You spread stupid way too much.

Jasen Betts
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 11:45 pm   



On 2020-05-01, John Larkin <jlarkin_at_highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:

Quote:

Efficiency benefit from dense populations is on the side of the microbe.

Yes. The R factor is a radical function of population density.


No, it's a radical function population mobility multiplied by density


--
Jasen.

Ricky C
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 11:45 pm   



On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 2:11:38 PM UTC-4, Piotr Wyderski wrote:
Quote:
John Larkin wrote:

Exactly. The more we lock down, the more our population is fertile for
reinfection. Even with a 100' wall around the US, and airports shut
down forever, there will be reservoirs of virus here for years, passed
around silently.

It's not practical to test the entire US population every week and
stomp out new seeds.

It shocks me that this kind of stuff needs to be explained on an
engineering newsgroup.


It is sad that people believe such obvious misinformation in an engineering newsgroup.

If the virus is passed around "silently" we don't care do we? Contact tracing and quarantine of anyone exposed is practical and required once the numbers drop. But the same sort of thinking that got Trump elected means once people feel better they stop taking their antibiotics even though they aren't cured.

--

Rick C.

+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Ricky C
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 11:45 pm   



On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 2:44:11 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
Quote:
On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 4:55:19 AM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
I just read that yet another port processing plant has closed because 40%, 900 workers tested positive for this disease. The plant closures are adding up and meat is going to be in short supply soon. So it seems we are damned if we do, damned if we don't.

A farmer friend (Bruce) is slaughtering another cow.
I'd buy more meat if I had any more room in my
freezer. We had Bruce T-bones the other night.
Umm.


Some people think you are going to need guns to protect that freezer. If I were in your shoes I'd have a backup generator.

BTW, why is he slaughtering cows? We are pretty sure they aren't responsible for the virus.

--

Rick C.

++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

whit3rd
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 11:45 pm   



On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 10:47:06 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
Quote:
On Fri, 1 May 2020 19:05:39 +0200, Piotr Wyderski
peter.pan_at_neverland.mil> wrote:

... The US alone have 1.1e6 confirmed cases today, probably
3x that number not diagnosed. This already is on the order of 1% of your
population and still growing. Sorry.

30% antibody positive in some places.


Not according to published error estimates. You have to ignore reality
to quote a number without giving its error bars. Some of the quoted
results are only good for upper limit determinations, allow zero antibody
positive as possible.

Ricky C
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 11:45 pm   



On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 1:05:45 PM UTC-4, Piotr Wyderski wrote:
Quote:
Ricky C wrote:

I guess I'm asking why? Obviously isolation should do the job. We don't even need to get the R0 number down to zero. We just have to get it enough below 1.0 that the new infections drops more rapidly than it's doing now.

Then the very same isolation should eradicate common cold or flu as
well, which didn't happen. We still don't know what the other reservoirs
of the virus might be. Are you going to kill all the bats on the planet,
for example?


Wow! So much wrong there. We don't isolate for colds or the flu until someone is sick and often not even then. We isolate when we are too sick to do our jobs or just too sick to leave the house. Otherwise we happily spread the viruses all over. The R0 of this disease is MUCH higher than the typical flu.

As to dealing with reservoirs, we only need to deal with real exigencies, not imagined. If someone gets the bubonic plague we deal with it by routine medical tracing. We can do the same with this disease once it is brought under control.


Quote:
And this is not limited only to animals. There are countries which
cannot afford the level of healthcare we have, even remotely. Some day a
plane from one of them might land and then everything will start all
over again. In order to win we must try to fix the problem globally,
which is not happening nowadays. Every single country pursues its own
unique attempts,
sometimes they are even stealing the PPE belonging to their neighbours
to supplement their own stock.


Yes, keeping the interjected infections low by careful screening and quarantine of international travelers and contact tracing. In other words, we can't just pay lip service to the idea of preventing a reinfection like we did the first time.


Quote:
The lock down in China worked a charm.

Provided that the Chinese reports are, errr..., not using creatively the
concept of truth...


They have removed the lock down and reduced their travel restrictions, hard to lie about that. There are other countries that are doing well keeping a lid on this disease. Do you believe they are all lying?


Quote:
There's no reason why we can't make these things work here in the US and throughout Europe.

In Poland we have been locked down since March 10, with the police
helicopters constantly monitoring major cities for illegal gatherings
and so what? 228 new cases only today and it is still early evening.
On May 6 the schools are supposed to restart their activities; large
shopping centers on May 4. We have been in isolation for almost two
months and the disease is quickly spreading. Three weeks you say?


So what are you doing wrong? How is the disease being spread? Do you no longer believe in science?


Quote:
Now the EU is mostly switching to the Swedish model: let regular people
live their lives and isolate the most vulnerable ones.


My understanding is that's not working out so well for Sweden. Their new infection and death rates have leveled off, but that's all. Like in the US they are not going down. So what's so great about that?


Quote:
Not me. I can wait it out.

No, you can't, I'm afraid. The virus as we know it or its mutations are
here to stay.


You are mistaken that I will need to wait it out forever. They will have a vaccine at some point. We will see how long that takes and if the virus mutates enough to require a new vaccine.

Then there are also treatments and... herd immunity. Once it has infected enough people that the R0 drops below 1.0, it will die off from not being transmitted effectively.


Quote:
Forever or for at least a very long time. The second
strike is expected to hit us this autumn.

Some of us will develop immunity one way or another, some else will
perish.


Immunity is not a given, which you would know if you were paying attention. If enough get infected on the first go around and the immunity lasts long enough, the second wave may not occur. So it's good for me if you get infected.


Quote:
We are way past the point of no return, so catching it is just a
matter of time. The US alone have 1.1e6 confirmed cases today, probably
3x that number not diagnosed. This already is on the order of 1% of your
population and still growing. Sorry.


Your facts may be right, your conclusions are suspect. The growth rate is now linear rather than exponential. Instead of doubling every period, it now adds so many infected every period. A very different situation which gives us time to deal with it. If however, we do what you suggest the numbers will take off. Same in Poland. Actually, your numbers seem pretty low. It's just that you aren't doing as much as needed to get R0 significantly below 1.0. So shit or get off the pot. Get your R0 down, or open things up and let it rip. Either one is good for me. Keeping the infection going is like maintaining a sour dough starter, but not so tasty.

--

Rick C.

-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

John Larkin
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 11:45 pm   



On Fri, 1 May 2020 21:54:46 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
<jasen_at_xnet.co.nz> wrote:

Quote:
On 2020-05-01, John Larkin <jlarkin_at_highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:


Efficiency benefit from dense populations is on the side of the microbe.

Yes. The R factor is a radical function of population density.

No, it's a radical function population mobility multiplied by density


The worst part of this pandemic may be the shear tedium.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

John Larkin
Guest

Fri May 01, 2020 11:45 pm   



On Fri, 1 May 2020 15:11:46 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd_at_gmail.com>
wrote:

Quote:
On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 10:47:06 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
On Fri, 1 May 2020 19:05:39 +0200, Piotr Wyderski
peter.pan_at_neverland.mil> wrote:

... The US alone have 1.1e6 confirmed cases today, probably
3x that number not diagnosed. This already is on the order of 1% of your
population and still growing. Sorry.

30% antibody positive in some places.

Not according to published error estimates. You have to ignore reality
to quote a number without giving its error bars.


Oh, all right.


================================

-------------------


\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\


Satisfied?


--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

Ricky C
Guest

Sat May 02, 2020 12:45 am   



On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 4:32:13 PM UTC-4, Michael Terrell wrote:
Quote:
On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 4:55:19 AM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
I just read that yet another port processing plant has closed because 40%, 900 workers tested positive for this disease. The plant closures are adding up and meat is going to be in short supply soon. So it seems we are damned if we do, damned if we don't.

So ignoring the virus to the extent that we don't force people into contact that will spread the virus like wildfire will still result in many businesses closing because the people working there will get sick. Trying to shut down and not spread the virus isn't working, which we have to assume is because people aren't following the orders.

The only countries that have beaten this virus took significant measures to test and isolate everyone who potentially was exposed and/or isolated everyone with stay at home orders. So why can't the US and the UK and other countries do the same thing?

What is wrong with this country that a simple virus defeats us?


- Tesla:

https://www.bizpacreview.com/2020/05/01/elon-musks-law-and-order-violations-continue-915759


Interesting that you point to Musk rather than blind stupidity.

https://cutt.ly/stop-the-insanity

--

Rick C.

--- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

whit3rd
Guest

Sat May 02, 2020 1:45 am   



On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 3:30:27 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
Quote:
On Fri, 1 May 2020 15:11:46 -0700 (PDT), whit3rd <whit3rd_at_gmail.com
wrote:

On Friday, May 1, 2020 at 10:47:06 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

30% antibody positive in some places.

Not according to published error estimates. You have to ignore reality
to quote a number without giving its error bars.


Without knowing what "some places" means, I'll suggest that's misinformation.

Lookie here for a little reality:
<https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/experts-demolish-studies-suggesting-covid-19-is-no-worse-than-flu/>

It's important to read past the introduction here; the second page is where the
antibody-positive result has a lower bound computed; it's no less than zero, you'll be
glad to hear. To claim much more than zero, like 30%, is ... extraordinary. We await evidence.

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