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Phil Hobbs
Guest

Thu May 07, 2020 4:45 pm   



On 2020-05-07 09:31, George Herold wrote:
Quote:
On Thursday, May 7, 2020 at 3:10:50 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
On 06/05/2020 14:28, George Herold wrote:
On Tuesday, May 5, 2020 at 2:55:12 PM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-05/mutant-coronavirus-has-
emerged-more-contagious-than-original

Source article:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v1


--
Thanks,
- Win

Evolutionarily(sp) speaking this is expected. It's our first interaction
with the virus and it should evolve to be less deadly and more contagious...

That is only true if the virus is so lethal that it tends to kill almost
everyone it infects before they have a chance to pass it on.

This one already produces 80% asymptomatic carriers and only kills about
3% of mostly the elderly and infirm. It is already close to optimal. It
could just as easily evolve to kill 10% or more so long as it has an
even higher R0 - and we are inadvertently selecting for maximum R0.

We have added the constraint of lockdown which is causing the original
wild form to die out and be replaced by the mutant strain with the
highest possible infectivity. This should not be a surprise.

That's how it gets more of its 'offspring' into the next generation.

Only true if it is killing a high proportion of those it infects and too
quickly for them to pass it on before they expire.
OK, I guess it's possible for the virus to become slightly more deadly, if
it becomes even more contagious by the change. And as you say our
actions are selecting which viruses get to infect others.


And I guess I could imagine some other disease that gets transmitted
because of the death the host.


Anthrax, for instance. It forms spores that can live for years in the soil.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com


Guest

Thu May 07, 2020 4:45 pm   



On 5 May 2020 11:54:54 -0700, Winfield Hill <winfieldhill_at_yahoo.com>
wrote:

Quote:
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-05/mutant-coronavirus-has-
emerged-more-contagious-than-original

Source article:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v1


The terror factor needed a booster shot.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

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