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mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

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legg
Guest

Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:45 pm   



https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL


Guest

Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:45 pm   



On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 13:50:49 -0400, legg <legg_at_nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

Quote:


Looks like the do-nothing case grows without limit, to trillions of
infections. That's exponential growth for ya.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

Rick C
Guest

Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:45 pm   



On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
Quote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL


This guy does a great web page.

Pity government leaders don't read it.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

bitrex
Guest

Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:45 pm   



On 3/22/2020 2:57 PM, jlarkin_at_highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
Quote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 13:50:49 -0400, legg <legg_at_nospam.magma.ca> wrote:



https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL

Looks like the do-nothing case grows without limit, to trillions of
infections. That's exponential growth for ya.




I've been looking over the patents for the Bird ventilator in my spare
time, by Forrest Bird who was born not far from me in Stoughton, MA.
Don't know if he was related to the other Bird family in this area which
has been an asphalt roofing shingle manufacturer since the late 18th
century.

It's a fascinating device and very clever in its relative simplicity
using two chambers of differential pressure and a sensitive
magnetically-clutched valve and venturi-system to sense back-pressure as
the lungs fill and regulate inhalation volume accordingly, and continue
to deliver pressure even if a leak develops in the system. No
electronics, runs on 50 psi source air pressure, almost no springs or
contacting moving parts to wear out.

bitrex
Guest

Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:45 pm   



On 3/22/2020 4:18 PM, bitrex wrote:
Quote:
On 3/22/2020 2:57 PM, jlarkin_at_highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 13:50:49 -0400, legg <legg_at_nospam.magma.ca> wrote:



https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56


RL

Looks like the do-nothing case grows without limit, to trillions of
infections. That's exponential growth for ya.




I've been looking over the patents for the Bird ventilator in my spare
time, by Forrest Bird who was born not far from me in Stoughton, MA.
Don't know if he was related to the other Bird family in this area which
has been an asphalt roofing shingle manufacturer since the late 18th
century.

It's a fascinating device and very clever in its relative simplicity
using two chambers of differential pressure and a sensitive
magnetically-clutched valve and venturi-system to sense back-pressure as
the lungs fill and regulate inhalation volume accordingly, and continue
to deliver pressure even if a leak develops in the system. No
electronics, runs on 50 psi source air pressure, almost no springs or
contacting moving parts to wear out.


It's sort of like one of those supercharger fuel-management gizmos, in
the patent it says a similar valve design could be used for
fuel-management to supercharged aircraft engines.


Guest

Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:45 pm   



On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
Quote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL


That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is relatively short, 99% of these people don't require hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated. His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction.

bitrex
Guest

Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:45 pm   



On 3/22/2020 4:43 PM, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred_at_gmail.com wrote:
Quote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL

That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is relatively short, 99% of these people don't require hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated. His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction.


The max theoretical mutation rate of a propagating RNA virus is about
proportional to the inverse of its genome size; it doesn't have
error-correction ability so any faster than that and the number of
sequence alterations that are rapidly lethal quickly goes up and it
doesn't live long enough to spread.


Guest

Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:45 pm   



On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 16:18:24 -0400, bitrex <user_at_example.net> wrote:

Quote:
On 3/22/2020 2:57 PM, jlarkin_at_highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 13:50:49 -0400, legg <legg_at_nospam.magma.ca> wrote:



https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL

Looks like the do-nothing case grows without limit, to trillions of
infections. That's exponential growth for ya.




I've been looking over the patents for the Bird ventilator in my spare
time, by Forrest Bird who was born not far from me in Stoughton, MA.
Don't know if he was related to the other Bird family in this area which
has been an asphalt roofing shingle manufacturer since the late 18th
century.

It's a fascinating device and very clever in its relative simplicity
using two chambers of differential pressure and a sensitive
magnetically-clutched valve and venturi-system to sense back-pressure as
the lungs fill and regulate inhalation volume accordingly, and continue
to deliver pressure even if a leak develops in the system. No
electronics, runs on 50 psi source air pressure, almost no springs or
contacting moving parts to wear out.


Nowadays, a small uP could do a better job. It could be interfaced,
too.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"

bitrex
Guest

Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:45 pm   



On 3/22/2020 4:43 PM, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred_at_gmail.com wrote:
Quote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL

That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is relatively short, 99% of these people don't require hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated. His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction.


I don't follow his argument that mitigation/social distancing would make
novel infectious mutations more likely to cause problems down the road,
genetic drift happens from random sampling as the virus moves from
person to person. social distancing would be expected to increase
pressure from genetic drift I'd think, genetic drift tends to decrease
population diversity not increase it.


Guest

Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:45 pm   



On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 13:43:08 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred_at_gmail.com wrote:

Quote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL

That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is relatively short, 99% of these people don't require hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated. His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction.


Sure, you can have all sorts of fun with a math model. Or a
spreadsheet. But the chloroquine might help, seems to help.

Flu viruses tend to mutate to be less lethal. It's not in their
interest to quickly kill the hosts that spread them.

But what impresses me is that an entire planet worth of viruses mutate
together. No one virus mutates and passes the less-lethal trend to its
offspring.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.
"Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"


Guest

Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:45 pm   



On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
Quote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL


There're only a few things that can kill off the entire human race: a massive high speed asteroid strike, a cataclysmic mantle eruption, and global warming, to name a few. The bio stuff doesn't come close.

bitrex
Guest

Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:45 pm   



On 3/22/2020 5:35 PM, jlarkin_at_highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
Quote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 13:43:08 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred_at_gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL

That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is relatively short, 99% of these people don't require hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated. His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction.

Sure, you can have all sorts of fun with a math model. Or a
spreadsheet. But the chloroquine might help, seems to help.

Flu viruses tend to mutate to be less lethal. It's not in their
interest to quickly kill the hosts that spread them.

But what impresses me is that an entire planet worth of viruses mutate
together. No one virus mutates and passes the less-lethal trend to its
offspring.




<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_drift>

Random sampling. The "fittest" virus that's just the "right" combination
of lethal and contagious doesn't always "win." if it did routinely we'd
probably all be done for a long time ago.


Guest

Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:45 pm   



On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 5:46:17 PM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
Quote:
On 3/22/2020 5:35 PM, jlarkin_at_highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 13:43:08 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred_at_gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL

That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is relatively short, 99% of these people don't require hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated. His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction.

Sure, you can have all sorts of fun with a math model. Or a
spreadsheet. But the chloroquine might help, seems to help.

Flu viruses tend to mutate to be less lethal. It's not in their
interest to quickly kill the hosts that spread them.

But what impresses me is that an entire planet worth of viruses mutate
together. No one virus mutates and passes the less-lethal trend to its
offspring.




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_drift

Random sampling. The "fittest" virus that's just the "right" combination
of lethal and contagious doesn't always "win." if it did routinely we'd
probably all be done for a long time ago.


That's right. It has to be that way or the virus would have no hosts left and die out.
Mutations are not considered a serious threat because they tend be unable to compete with the wild strain for replication. There might be a small smoldering subpopulation, but it's dwarfed by the wild strain population and unlikely to be transmitted.


Guest

Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:45 pm   



On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 5:56:59 PM UTC-4, Rick C wrote:
Quote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 4:43:12 PM UTC-4, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL

That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is relatively short, 99% of these people don't require hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated. His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction.

Much of what you say is true and Tomas Pueyo does not know, is in fact WRONG! 99% is not a valid number for survival and there are a portion of the survivors who are permanently scarred. Even if the death rate is only 1%, that's no small number.


Columbia school of public recently published results from China showing that a full 86% either don't know they have it or the symptoms were too mild to seek medical treatment. Their infections were not even recorded iow. This fact reduces the early hysterical mortality estimates by 86%.
Then the hysterical MSM is now publishing misleading headlines like 10,000 NEW CASES IN NEW YORK. When they should be saying 10,000 more cases uncovered as testing expands.

Quote:

His web page is factual without being sensational, clear and highly informative. It's a pity that so many of the public are not capable of appreciating it.

--

Rick C.

+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209


Rick C
Guest

Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:45 pm   



On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 5:35:53 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
Quote:

Sure, you can have all sorts of fun with a math model. Or a
spreadsheet. But the chloroquine might help, seems to help.


Which has nothing to do with modeling.


Quote:
Flu viruses tend to mutate to be less lethal. It's not in their
interest to quickly kill the hosts that spread them.


But all mutations take time. A low lethality rate (~1-3%) doesn't impact the ability to replicate very much, so there isn't a strong selector to eliminate it. I doubt that aspect of this virus is going to change any time soon.


Quote:
But what impresses me is that an entire planet worth of viruses mutate
together. No one virus mutates and passes the less-lethal trend to its
offspring.


Uh, that makes literally no sense. A mutation exactly works by one virus mutating and passing the trait to the offspring. I assume you are trying to be cute somehow?

--

Rick C.

-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

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