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Guest

Sat May 02, 2020 4:45 pm   



https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/

Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.


"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which
may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up
to public panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions,
a media story about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the
public, which becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction
becomes a story in itself, prompting additional coverage in the media,
which in turn produces greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel
for fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying
around exposed, something will come along to exploit it.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

Bill Sloman
Guest

Sat May 02, 2020 4:45 pm   



On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 12:49:33 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
Quote:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/

Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.

"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which
may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up
to public panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions,
a media story about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the
public, which becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction
becomes a story in itself, prompting additional coverage in the media,
which in turn produces greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel
for fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying
around exposed, something will come along to exploit it.


Unfortunately, the British don't seem to be fearful enough to have embraced a lock-down that reduced transmission to a level that won't sustain an epidemic.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The new cases-per-day-number is pretty much flat at around 4500 new cases per day. There doesn't seem to enough anxiety around to get civil servants doing effective contact tracing.

It's all looking very like the US.

Sir David Spiegelhalter may be a brilliant statistician, but he doesn't seem to be paying enough attention to what the lock down is supposed to be doing - and manifesting failing to do.

Or it could be that Breitbart is subtly distorting his message to fit the US right-wing idea that the working classes should get back to work, even if it kills quite a few of them.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Tom Gardner
Guest

Sat May 02, 2020 4:45 pm   



On 02/05/20 16:06, Bill Sloman wrote:
Quote:
On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 12:49:33 AM UTC+10,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/



Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.

"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which may
start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up to public
panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions, a media story
about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the public, which
becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction becomes a story in
itself, prompting additional coverage in the media, which in turn produces
greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel for
fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying around
exposed, something will come along to exploit it.

Unfortunately, the British don't seem to be fearful enough to have embraced a
lock-down that reduced transmission to a level that won't sustain an
epidemic.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The new cases-per-day-number is pretty much flat at around 4500 new cases per
day. There doesn't seem to enough anxiety around to get civil servants doing
effective contact tracing.

It's all looking very like the US.

Sir David Spiegelhalter may be a brilliant statistician, but he doesn't seem
to be paying enough attention to what the lock down is supposed to be doing -
and manifesting failing to do.

Or it could be that Breitbart is subtly distorting his message to fit the US
right-wing idea that the working classes should get back to work, even if it
kills quite a few of them.


Personally I'd ignore Breitbart since they will
have a "not-well-articulated" agenda. Doubly so
for the "lockdownsceptics.org" reports.

When I want to hear what Spiegelhalter is saying,
I'll look at his twitter feed, his blog, or the
article in The Guardian from which Breitbart
snipped a few choice quotes.

Spiegelhalter is great at putting risks in context,
and he points out that it is rational to take
greater risks (i.e. micromorts) when you are older.

Tom Gardner
Guest

Sat May 02, 2020 4:45 pm   



On 02/05/20 15:49, jlarkin_at_highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
Quote:

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/

Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.


"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which
may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up
to public panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions,
a media story about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the
public, which becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction
becomes a story in itself, prompting additional coverage in the media,
which in turn produces greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel
for fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying
around exposed, something will come along to exploit it.


There can be that vicious circle, but there can be /other/
vicious circles. Balance is needed.

For example...

OTOH we remember the Government's BSE "deny everything
until you can't", where the attitude was, explicitly:
- there's no need to worry since cows are ruminants and
we aren't, coupled with
- we don't know what is the agent nor how it is
transmitted
Go figure, and remember how that ended!

We also remember BoJo's happy-daze nothing-to-fear
statements about Covid 19. Then his behaviour caused
him to narrowly escape death. ("It could have gone
either way")


Guest

Sat May 02, 2020 5:45 pm   



On Saturday, May 2, 2020 at 10:49:33 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
Quote:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/

Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.


"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which
may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up
to public panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions,
a media story about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the
public, which becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction
becomes a story in itself, prompting additional coverage in the media,
which in turn produces greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel
for fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying
around exposed, something will come along to exploit it.



Here's an alternative analysis of the piece-of-trash Johnson. How could the British be so stupid...

https://theintercept.com/2020/04/30/boris-johnsons-coronavirus-lies/

Quote:

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard



Guest

Sat May 02, 2020 5:45 pm   



On Sat, 2 May 2020 16:37:08 +0100, Tom Gardner
<spamjunk_at_blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

Quote:
On 02/05/20 15:49, jlarkin_at_highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/

Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.


"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which
may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up
to public panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions,
a media story about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the
public, which becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction
becomes a story in itself, prompting additional coverage in the media,
which in turn produces greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel
for fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying
around exposed, something will come along to exploit it.

There can be that vicious circle, but there can be /other/
vicious circles. Balance is needed.


Balance we won't get. Gradients build, excess energy becomes
available, and we get butterfly effect events.

The lockdown is building up huge unprecedented gradients of personal
energy, boredom and poverty and fear and some anger. That will fuel
cascades soon too.

EEs do dynamic simulations, but rarely the kinds that social systems
exhibit. The superregenerative receiver has some things in common with
the availability cascade, but even that is more predictable.

Public policy can't predict this stuff, but it could dampen the system
and refrain from piling on to specific events. As if.


Quote:

For example...

OTOH we remember the Government's BSE "deny everything
until you can't", where the attitude was, explicitly:
- there's no need to worry since cows are ruminants and
we aren't, coupled with
- we don't know what is the agent nor how it is
transmitted
Go figure, and remember how that ended!


Looks like a total of under 300 human deaths worldwide. People knew
for ages that one shouldn't feed cows with cow bone meal. Cows are
vegetarians.

Quote:

We also remember BoJo's happy-daze nothing-to-fear
statements about Covid 19. Then his behaviour caused
him to narrowly escape death. ("It could have gone
either way")


We are all thankful that he's back in action.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

Martin Brown
Guest

Sat May 02, 2020 6:45 pm   



On 02/05/2020 16:06, Bill Sloman wrote:
Quote:
On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 12:49:33 AM UTC+10,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/



Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.

"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events
which may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and
lead up to public panic and large-scale government action. On some
occasions, a media story about a risk catches the attention of a
segment of the public, which becomes aroused and worried. This
emotional reaction becomes a story in itself, prompting additional
coverage in the media, which in turn produces greater concern and
involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the
fuel for fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients
lying around exposed, something will come along to exploit it.

Unfortunately, the British don't seem to be fearful enough to have
embraced a lock-down that reduced transmission to a level that won't
sustain an epidemic.


That isn't what is happening in the UK. The lockdown is being obeyed by
the vast majority of the population who are scared witless by it. A few
teenagers here and there rebel from time to time but that is about it.

Look at any webcam in a major city or motorway and it is deserted. Wild
animals like deer on the road during daytime is now a risk when driving.
This sort of things normally only happens during the Xmas holidays.

Quote:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The new cases-per-day-number is pretty much flat at around 4500 new
cases per day. There doesn't seem to enough anxiety around to get
civil servants doing effective contact tracing.


The disease is however running rampant through the care homes and
domiciliary care services (that look after elderly people in their
homes). Neither of these vectors seemed to have been considered. Lack of
PPE and inadequate testing until this month has left them very exposed.

Hospital admissions are coming down and we are notionally "Past the
peak" but the daily death toll remains stubbornly high at 700-800.
Quote:

It's all looking very like the US.

Sir David Spiegelhalter may be a brilliant statistician, but he
doesn't seem to be paying enough attention to what the lock down is
supposed to be doing - and manifesting failing to do.


He is commenting on the situation rather than making government policy.
His heuristic description of the individual risk is reasonably accurate.
Quote:

Or it could be that Breitbart is subtly distorting his message to fit
the US right-wing idea that the working classes should get back to
work, even if it kills quite a few of them.


The other interesting statistic is that like with TB of old it is
killing a higher proportion of those it infects in poorer regions.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

Bill Sloman
Guest

Sat May 02, 2020 6:45 pm   



On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 1:59:43 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
Quote:
On Sat, 2 May 2020 16:37:08 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk_at_blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 02/05/20 15:49, jlarkin_at_highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/

Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.


"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which
may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up
to public panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions,
a media story about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the
public, which becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction
becomes a story in itself, prompting additional coverage in the media,
which in turn produces greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel
for fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying
around exposed, something will come along to exploit it.

There can be that vicious circle, but there can be /other/
vicious circles. Balance is needed.

Balance we won't get. Gradients build, excess energy becomes
available, and we get butterfly effect events.

The lockdown is building up huge unprecedented gradients of personal
energy, boredom and poverty and fear and some anger. That will fuel
cascades soon too.


It would be building up a whole lot less if it were done properly, and could be seen to rolling back the progress of the epidemic - as it is in Australia,and some other places, and clearly isn't in the US. Six weeks of lock down should have stopped the epidemic in its tracks. Since it hasn't, the population locked down has legitimate grounds for complaint.

Concentrating on the fact the being locked down is no fun rather misses the point that being locked down ought to be serving a purpose - and obviously isn't in the US.

<snipped pretentious twaddle>

Quote:
Public policy can't predict this stuff, but it could dampen the system
and refrain from piling on to specific events. As if.


Public policy ought to deliver what it promises. A lock down that isn't actually getting rid of the epidemic is a fraud.

<snip>

> We are all thankful that he's (Boris Johnson) back in action.

We'd be a lot more thankful if the UK lock down wasn't just as inept as the US version.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney


Guest

Sat May 02, 2020 7:45 pm   



On Sat, 2 May 2020 09:25:17 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred_at_gmail.com wrote:

Quote:
On Saturday, May 2, 2020 at 10:49:33 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/

Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.


"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which
may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up
to public panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions,
a media story about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the
public, which becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction
becomes a story in itself, prompting additional coverage in the media,
which in turn produces greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel
for fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying
around exposed, something will come along to exploit it.



Here's an alternative analysis of the piece-of-trash Johnson. How could the British be so stupid...

https://theintercept.com/2020/04/30/boris-johnsons-coronavirus-lies/


Why bother to think, when emoting takes less energy?



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

Bill Sloman
Guest

Sat May 02, 2020 7:45 pm   



On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 2:54:38 AM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:
Quote:
On 02/05/2020 16:06, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 12:49:33 AM UTC+10,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/



Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.

"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events
which may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and
lead up to public panic and large-scale government action. On some
occasions, a media story about a risk catches the attention of a
segment of the public, which becomes aroused and worried. This
emotional reaction becomes a story in itself, prompting additional
coverage in the media, which in turn produces greater concern and
involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the
fuel for fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients
lying around exposed, something will come along to exploit it.

Unfortunately, the British don't seem to be fearful enough to have
embraced a lock-down that reduced transmission to a level that won't
sustain an epidemic.

That isn't what is happening in the UK. The lockdown is being obeyed by
the vast majority of the population who are scared witless by it. A few
teenagers here and there rebel from time to time but that is about it.


The problem seems to be the main point of a lock down is that it reduces social contacts enough to make contact tracing practical.

When this is done properly everybody who might have been in contact with an infectious person - including before they were visibly sick, or known to be infected - gets told to isolate themselves for 14 days from the time of the contact. This does seem to reduce new infections a lot.

If complacent civil servants imagine that enforcing lock down is all they need to do, they've missed the point.

Quote:
Look at any webcam in a major city or motorway and it is deserted. Wild
animals like deer on the road during daytime is now a risk when driving.
This sort of things normally only happens during the Xmas holidays.


So the place is locked down, but the link I posted ( below) showed that it hasn't reduced the R value to anything much below one. The UK has steady stream of new infections, rather than a rapidly declining number of new infections

Quote:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The new cases-per-day-number is pretty much flat at around 4500 new
cases per day. There doesn't seem to enough anxiety around to get
civil servants doing effective contact tracing.

The disease is however running rampant through the care homes and
domiciliary care services (that look after elderly people in their
homes). Neither of these vectors seemed to have been considered.


They might have been considered, but nobody did anything effective about it..

Sydney has one really badly affected old peoples home, and it pops up on the news every night as another elderly resident dies, or another carer tests positive for Covid-19. It does seemed to have scared other old peoples homes into doing better.

Quote:
Lack of PPE and inadequate testing until this month has left them very exposed.

Hospital admissions are coming down and we are notionally "Past the
peak" but the daily death toll remains stubbornly high at 700-800.

It's all looking very like the US.

Sir David Spiegelhalter may be a brilliant statistician, but he
doesn't seem to be paying enough attention to what the lock down is
supposed to be doing - and manifesting failing to do.

He is commenting on the situation rather than making government policy.
His heuristic description of the individual risk is reasonably accurate.

Or it could be that Breitbart is subtly distorting his message to fit
the US right-wing idea that the working classes should get back to
work, even if it kills quite a few of them.

The other interesting statistic is that like with TB of old it is
killing a higher proportion of those it infects in poorer regions.


It's not that interesting - being poor is known to be damaging to your health.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Spirit_Level_(book)

deals with lots of consequences of social inequality, and poorer health at the low end of the socio-economic spectrum is one of them. The UK isn't as bad as the US, but it's pretty unequal. High levels of inequality don't do anything positive for people at the top end of the spectrum either. They do much better than the poor, but they don't do as well as even poor people in more equal countries.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney


Guest

Sat May 02, 2020 8:45 pm   



On Saturday, May 2, 2020 at 1:52:37 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
Quote:
On Sat, 2 May 2020 09:25:17 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred_at_gmail.com wrote:

On Saturday, May 2, 2020 at 10:49:33 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/

Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.


"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which
may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up
to public panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions,
a media story about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the
public, which becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction
becomes a story in itself, prompting additional coverage in the media,
which in turn produces greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel
for fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying
around exposed, something will come along to exploit it.



Here's an alternative analysis of the piece-of-trash Johnson. How could the British be so stupid...

https://theintercept.com/2020/04/30/boris-johnsons-coronavirus-lies/


Why bother to think, when emoting takes less energy?


That comment applies to the Boris Johnson types with their "magical thinking." He's a joke, another one who's wrong about everything.

Quote:


--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard


Cursitor Doom
Guest

Sun May 03, 2020 2:45 pm   



On Sat, 02 May 2020 16:42:32 +0100, Tom Gardner wrote:

Quote:
Spiegelhalter is great at putting risks in context, and he points out
that it is rational to take greater risks (i.e. micromorts) when you are
older.


He gets wheeled out by the BBC for his 2p worth because they know he can
be trusted to tow the party line. He is as biased as they come.

Tom Gardner
Guest

Sun May 03, 2020 3:45 pm   



On 03/05/20 14:16, Cursitor Doom wrote:
Quote:
On Sat, 02 May 2020 16:42:32 +0100, Tom Gardner wrote:

Spiegelhalter is great at putting risks in context, and he points out
that it is rational to take greater risks (i.e. micromorts) when you are
older.

He gets wheeled out by the BBC for his 2p worth because they know he can
be trusted to tow the party line. He is as biased as they come.


Bullshit.

Bill Sloman
Guest

Sun May 03, 2020 3:45 pm   



On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 11:16:48 PM UTC+10, Cursitor Doom wrote:
Quote:
On Sat, 02 May 2020 16:42:32 +0100, Tom Gardner wrote:

Spiegelhalter is great at putting risks in context, and he points out
that it is rational to take greater risks (i.e. micromorts) when you are
older.

He gets wheeled out by the BBC for his 2p worth because they know he can
be trusted to tow the party line. He is as biased as they come.


Actually, it is "toe the party line".

And Cursitor Doom prefers people who share his irrational idiocies, and regards the relatively sane as biased against his favourite lunacies (as indeed they are - sane and reasonable people find it much easier to agree with one another that do nut-cases like Cursitor Doom).

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney


Guest

Sun May 03, 2020 3:45 pm   



On Sat, 2 May 2020 16:42:32 +0100, Tom Gardner
<spamjunk_at_blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

Quote:
On 02/05/20 16:06, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 12:49:33 AM UTC+10,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/



Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.

"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which may
start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up to public
panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions, a media story
about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the public, which
becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction becomes a story in
itself, prompting additional coverage in the media, which in turn produces
greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel for
fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying around
exposed, something will come along to exploit it.

Unfortunately, the British don't seem to be fearful enough to have embraced a
lock-down that reduced transmission to a level that won't sustain an
epidemic.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The new cases-per-day-number is pretty much flat at around 4500 new cases per
day. There doesn't seem to enough anxiety around to get civil servants doing
effective contact tracing.

It's all looking very like the US.

Sir David Spiegelhalter may be a brilliant statistician, but he doesn't seem
to be paying enough attention to what the lock down is supposed to be doing -
and manifesting failing to do.

Or it could be that Breitbart is subtly distorting his message to fit the US
right-wing idea that the working classes should get back to work, even if it
kills quite a few of them.

Personally I'd ignore Breitbart since they will
have a "not-well-articulated" agenda. Doubly so
for the "lockdownsceptics.org" reports.

When I want to hear what Spiegelhalter is saying,
I'll look at his twitter feed, his blog, or the
article in The Guardian from which Breitbart
snipped a few choice quotes.

Spiegelhalter is great at putting risks in context,
and he points out that it is rational to take
greater risks (i.e. micromorts) when you are older.


If Brietbart links to something, you must assume it's not true. Earth
orbits the sun, for example.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

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