EDAboard.com | EDAboard.de | EDAboard.co.uk | WTWH Media

excellent virus rant

Ask a question - edaboard.com

elektroda.net NewsGroups Forum Index - Electronics Design - excellent virus rant

Goto page Previous  1, 2

Tom Gardner
Guest

Sun May 03, 2020 4:45 pm   



On 03/05/20 15:34, jlarkin_at_highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
Quote:
On Sat, 2 May 2020 16:42:32 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk_at_blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 02/05/20 16:06, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 12:49:33 AM UTC+10,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/



Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.

"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which may
start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up to public
panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions, a media story
about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the public, which
becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction becomes a story in
itself, prompting additional coverage in the media, which in turn produces
greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel for
fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying around
exposed, something will come along to exploit it.

Unfortunately, the British don't seem to be fearful enough to have embraced a
lock-down that reduced transmission to a level that won't sustain an
epidemic.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The new cases-per-day-number is pretty much flat at around 4500 new cases per
day. There doesn't seem to enough anxiety around to get civil servants doing
effective contact tracing.

It's all looking very like the US.

Sir David Spiegelhalter may be a brilliant statistician, but he doesn't seem
to be paying enough attention to what the lock down is supposed to be doing -
and manifesting failing to do.

Or it could be that Breitbart is subtly distorting his message to fit the US
right-wing idea that the working classes should get back to work, even if it
kills quite a few of them.

Personally I'd ignore Breitbart since they will
have a "not-well-articulated" agenda. Doubly so
for the "lockdownsceptics.org" reports.

When I want to hear what Spiegelhalter is saying,
I'll look at his twitter feed, his blog, or the
article in The Guardian from which Breitbart
snipped a few choice quotes.

Spiegelhalter is great at putting risks in context,
and he points out that it is rational to take
greater risks (i.e. micromorts) when you are older.

If Brietbart links to something, you must assume it's not true. Earth
orbits the sun, for example.


Er, where do you get that from?!

Cursitor Doom
Guest

Sun May 03, 2020 5:45 pm   



On Sun, 03 May 2020 16:31:34 +0100, Tom Gardner wrote:

> Er, where do you get that from?!

You wouldn't understand. You're a MORON.

Bill Sloman
Guest

Mon May 04, 2020 4:45 am   



On Monday, May 4, 2020 at 12:34:12 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology..com wrote:
Quote:
On Sat, 2 May 2020 16:42:32 +0100, Tom Gardner
spamjunk_at_blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

On 02/05/20 16:06, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 12:49:33 AM UTC+10,
jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/02/blitz-spirit-hardly-most-britons-still-too-scared-to-leave-home/



Good observations about socio-political feedback loops.

"An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events which may
start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up to public
panic and large-scale government action. On some occasions, a media story
about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the public, which
becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction becomes a story in
itself, prompting additional coverage in the media, which in turn produces
greater concern and involvement."


Fear is an exploitable energy source, like forest litter is the fuel for
fires. Given an available energy gradient, or nutrients lying around
exposed, something will come along to exploit it.

Unfortunately, the British don't seem to be fearful enough to have embraced a
lock-down that reduced transmission to a level that won't sustain an
epidemic.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The new cases-per-day-number is pretty much flat at around 4500 new cases per
day. There doesn't seem to enough anxiety around to get civil servants doing
effective contact tracing.

It's all looking very like the US.

Sir David Spiegelhalter may be a brilliant statistician, but he doesn't seem to be paying enough attention to what the lock down is supposed to be doing - and manifesting failing to do.

Or it could be that Breitbart is subtly distorting his message to fit the US right-wing idea that the working classes should get back to work, even if it
kills quite a few of them.

Personally I'd ignore Breitbart since they will
have a "not-well-articulated" agenda. Doubly so
for the "lockdownsceptics.org" reports.

When I want to hear what Spiegelhalter is saying,
I'll look at his twitter feed, his blog, or the
article in The Guardian from which Breitbart
snipped a few choice quotes.

Spiegelhalter is great at putting risks in context,
and he points out that it is rational to take
greater risks (i.e. micromorts) when you are older.

If Brietbart links to something, you must assume it's not true. Earth
orbits the sun, for example.


That depends on your point of view. Tycho Brahe was perfectly happy with that point of view. It doesn't make for easy-to-follow first year lectures, but - as the theory of relativity spells out - the way the world looks does depend on where you are looking at it from.

Brietbart wasn't linking to anything. It was reporting on what Sir David Spiegelhalter had said. It wasn't a word-by-word transcription, and - as James Arthur regularly demonstrates here - you can change meaning quite a lot by deleting inconvenient content.

Gullible twits like you don't seem to notice when this happens, and happily rely on data from places - such as denialist web sites - that make a habit of it.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Bill Sloman
Guest

Mon May 04, 2020 4:45 am   



On Monday, May 4, 2020 at 2:34:03 AM UTC+10, Cursitor Doom wrote:
Quote:
On Sun, 03 May 2020 16:31:34 +0100, Tom Gardner wrote:

Er, where do you get that from?!

You wouldn't understand. You're a MORON.


Cursitor Doom may be silly enough to think that this true.

In reality none of has any trouble working out where John Larkin gets his silly ideas - one of which happens to be that Brietbart is a reliable source of unbiased information - and the question was entirely rhetorical.

It isn't as if John Larkin is going to try to answer it, and more than you have.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Martin Brown
Guest

Mon May 04, 2020 10:45 am   



On 02/05/2020 19:01, Bill Sloman wrote:
Quote:
On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 2:54:38 AM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:
On 02/05/2020 16:06, Bill Sloman wrote:

Unfortunately, the British don't seem to be fearful enough to
have embraced a lock-down that reduced transmission to a level
that won't sustain an epidemic.

That isn't what is happening in the UK. The lockdown is being
obeyed by the vast majority of the population who are scared
witless by it. A few teenagers here and there rebel from time to
time but that is about it.

The problem seems to be the main point of a lock down is that it
reduces social contacts enough to make contact tracing practical.


There is absolutely no contact tracing occurring in the UK and hasn't
been since March when they abandoned it completely. It was a bad mistake
but they are only now trying to recruit contact tracers. Outsourcing it
to the usual suspects (who will doubtless profit hugely from the
contracts and make a balls up of it). To say that they have previous
would be understating it - this from 2014:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27387048

The skilled contact tracers were all made redundant in the post 2008
crash to save on local government overheads.

Quote:
When this is done properly everybody who might have been in contact
with an infectious person - including before they were visibly sick,
or known to be infected - gets told to isolate themselves for 14 days
from the time of the contact. This does seem to reduce new infections
a lot.


The advice was simple "Stay Home, Save Lives" and "Protect the NHS".
It has worked to a very large extent.

Unwinding it is going to be tricky. The general population have really
been scared witless.

The problem is that care homes were left as sacrificial lambs to the
slaughter since their staff have to go in daily. When staff get sick or
have to self isolated they use agency staff (typically on zero hours
contracts who can't afford to turn work down even if they are sick).
Quote:

If complacent civil servants imagine that enforcing lock down is all
they need to do, they've missed the point.


The government insists that it is following all the scientific advice.
But the scientists are not allowed to discuss any dissenting views in
public and political advisors have been present at meetings of what is
supposed to be a *scientific expert group*.

Their previous chief scientific advice David King now Emeritus Professor
of Chemistry at Cambridge is setting up an unofficial SAGE2 group that
will not be muzzled by the politicians. He is concerned that scientists
who are working for the government are being lined up to take the blame.
(or employed by the government not free to speak up for the science)

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-sage-dominic-cummings-david-king-a9496546.html

Quote:
Look at any webcam in a major city or motorway and it is deserted.
Wild animals like deer on the road during daytime is now a risk
when driving. This sort of things normally only happens during the
Xmas holidays.

So the place is locked down, but the link I posted ( below) showed
that it hasn't reduced the R value to anything much below one. The UK
has steady stream of new infections, rather than a rapidly declining
number of new infections


It has in the general population but not in the hottest spots which are
now mostly inside prisons and care homes. Places where social distancing
is virtually impossible by the design of the buildings.
Quote:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The new cases-per-day-number is pretty much flat at around 4500
new cases per day. There doesn't seem to enough anxiety around to
get civil servants doing effective contact tracing.

The disease is however running rampant through the care homes and
domiciliary care services (that look after elderly people in their
homes). Neither of these vectors seemed to have been considered.

They might have been considered, but nobody did anything effective
about it.


I'd like to see evidence of that. They are still last on the list for
getting scarce PPE. Even the hospitals are living hand to mouth.

Publishing the results of pandemic simulation Exercise Cygnus 2016 is
about to be fought out in the courts (very slowly I suppose).
Quote:

Sydney has one really badly affected old peoples home, and it pops up
on the news every night as another elderly resident dies, or another
carer tests positive for Covid-19. It does seemed to have scared
other old peoples homes into doing better.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-nhs-england-lockdown-keith-willett-uk-a9493036.html

Previous policy to free beds in the NHS system by making care homes take
back suspected Covid-19 patients not in immediate danger has back fired.

A few wiser ones refused this request point blank.
Quote:

Lack of PPE and inadequate testing until this month has left them
very exposed.

Hospital admissions are coming down and we are notionally "Past
the peak" but the daily death toll remains stubbornly high at
700-800.

It's all looking very like the US.

Sir David Spiegelhalter may be a brilliant statistician, but he
doesn't seem to be paying enough attention to what the lock down
is supposed to be doing - and manifesting failing to do.


He is trying to aid the public understanding of statistical risk and
doing a reasonably good job of it too. The government propaganda is too
heavy handed for the actual risk to healthy fit individuals under 50.

Their original plan of slowly developing herd immunity was probably the
only honest game in town at present. The Netherlands and Sweden are the
only countries still following that sort of path.

Quote:
He is commenting on the situation rather than making government
policy. His heuristic description of the individual risk is
reasonably accurate.

Or it could be that Breitbart is subtly distorting his message to
fit the US right-wing idea that the working classes should get
back to work, even if it kills quite a few of them.

The other interesting statistic is that like with TB of old it is
killing a higher proportion of those it infects in poorer regions.

It's not that interesting - being poor is known to be damaging to
your health.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Spirit_Level_(book)


It is showing up as a factor of two difference between postcodes that
are really quite close together but with very different income levels.
Quote:

deals with lots of consequences of social inequality, and poorer
health at the low end of the socio-economic spectrum is one of them.
The UK isn't as bad as the US, but it's pretty unequal. High levels
of inequality don't do anything positive for people at the top end of
the spectrum either. They do much better than the poor, but they
don't do as well as even poor people in more equal countries.


I'm not sure that is entirely true for the likes of the oligarchs that
actually control how the country is run for their benefit. A very small
number of people have become insanely rich by vulture capitalism.

Typically they own superyachts, private jets and small tropical islands.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

Bill Sloman
Guest

Mon May 04, 2020 1:45 pm   



On Monday, May 4, 2020 at 7:09:10 PM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:
Quote:
On 02/05/2020 19:01, Bill Sloman wrote:
On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 2:54:38 AM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:
On 02/05/2020 16:06, Bill Sloman wrote:


<snip>

Quote:
The other interesting statistic is that like with TB of old it is
killing a higher proportion of those it infects in poorer regions.

It's not that interesting - being poor is known to be damaging to
your health.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Spirit_Level_(book)

It is showing up as a factor of two difference between postcodes that
are really quite close together but with very different income levels.

deals with lots of consequences of social inequality, and poorer
health at the low end of the socio-economic spectrum is one of them.
The UK isn't as bad as the US, but it's pretty unequal. High levels
of inequality don't do anything positive for people at the top end of
the spectrum either. They do much better than the poor, but they
don't do as well as even poor people in more equal countries.

I'm not sure that is entirely true for the likes of the oligarchs that
actually control how the country is run for their benefit. A very small
number of people have become insanely rich by vulture capitalism.

Typically they own superyachts, private jets and small tropical islands.


And have servants and staff to look after them on the superyachts, in the private jets and on the tropical islands, who do seem to infect them with all the infectious diseases that the poorer classes have managed to acquire.

There are reasons for adopting universal health care, and coping with epidemics of various sorts is clearly one of them.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney


Guest

Mon May 04, 2020 1:45 pm   



Martin Brown <'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote in
news:r8om3f$1vmv$1_at_gioia.aioe.org:

Quote:
I'm not sure that is entirely true for the likes of the oligarchs
that actually control how the country is run for their benefit. A
very small number of people have become insanely rich by vulture
capitalism.

Typically they own superyachts, private jets and small tropical
islands.

Did you see that video of a bunch of rich boaters down in Florida
having a water party? One of them had a boat with a Trump wrap on the
whole boat.

Some jackass gym owner in California being stupid.

John Larkin
Guest

Mon May 04, 2020 7:45 pm   



On Sat, 2 May 2020 12:36:33 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred_at_gmail.com wrote:

Quote:
On Saturday, May 2, 2020 at 1:52:37 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:


Why bother to think, when emoting takes less energy?

That comment applies to the Boris Johnson types with their "magical thinking." He's a joke, another one who's wrong about everything.


Thank you for reinforcing my point.

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

Bill Sloman
Guest

Tue May 05, 2020 3:45 am   



On Tuesday, May 5, 2020 at 4:07:13 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
Quote:
On Sat, 2 May 2020 12:36:33 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred_at_gmail.com wrote:

On Saturday, May 2, 2020 at 1:52:37 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:


Why bother to think, when emoting takes less energy?

That comment applies to the Boris Johnson types with their "magical thinking." He's a joke, another one who's wrong about everything.

Thank you for reinforcing my point.


John Larkin doesn't seem to have thought about anything except electronics for a very long time, and he doesn't think very hard about electronics either.

Custom-designed transformers are in the "too-hard" basket. That's an emotional response, though he does try to rationalise it.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Tom Gardner
Guest

Wed May 06, 2020 9:45 pm   



On 03/05/20 14:55, Tom Gardner wrote:
Quote:
On 03/05/20 14:16, Cursitor Doom wrote:
On Sat, 02 May 2020 16:42:32 +0100, Tom Gardner wrote:

Spiegelhalter is great at putting risks in context, and he points out
that it is rational to take greater risks (i.e. micromorts) when you are
older.

He gets wheeled out by the BBC for his 2p worth because they know he can
be trusted to tow the party line. He is as biased as they come.

Bullshit.


And there's now an example of why CD's random claim
is bullshit. It is so simple and obvious that even he
might be able to understand it...

The prime minister said Starmer “is right to draw
attention to the appalling statistics not just in
this country and but of course around the world.
I would echo what we’ve heard from Prof David
Spiegelhalter and others that at this stage,
I don’t think that international comparisons and
the data is yet there to draw all the conclusions
that we want.
“There will be a time to look at what decisions we
took and whether we could have taken different
decisions.”

However, a few hours later Spiegelhalter, tweeted:
“Polite request to PM and others: please stop using
my Guardian article to claim we cannot make any
international comparisons yet. I refer only to
detailed league tables-of course we should now
use other countries to try and learn why our numbers
are high”.

I don't know about the US, but in the UK requests
marked as "polite" are fighting words.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/06/author-of-guardian-article-on-death-tolls-asks-government-to-stop-using-it

Goto page Previous  1, 2

elektroda.net NewsGroups Forum Index - Electronics Design - excellent virus rant

Ask a question - edaboard.com

Arabic version Bulgarian version Catalan version Czech version Danish version German version Greek version English version Spanish version Finnish version French version Hindi version Croatian version Indonesian version Italian version Hebrew version Japanese version Korean version Lithuanian version Latvian version Dutch version Norwegian version Polish version Portuguese version Romanian version Russian version Slovak version Slovenian version Serbian version Swedish version Tagalog version Ukrainian version Vietnamese version Chinese version Turkish version
EDAboard.com map