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bitrex
Guest

Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:45 am   



As of December 19th 2018 the four year grand total of Massachusetts
state EV purchase/lease rebates is (Dec 2014 - Dec 2018)

Tesla: 4,257
Chevrolet: 2,807
Toyota: 1,300
Ford: 806
Nissan: 767
BMW: 600
Honda: 559
Smart: 229
Chrysler: 201
Volkswagen: 200
Mitsubishi: 174
Kia: 163
Volvo: 106
Hyundai: 64
Audi: 58
Mercedes: 45
British Motor Co. :35 (?? Jaguar i-Pace?)
Zero Motors: 20 (electric motorcycles)
Cadillac: 17
Porsche: 13
Victory Motors: 2 (electric motorcycles)

and...

FIAT: 1
^^^^^^
Hahah one person bought an electric FIAT.

Winfield Hill
Guest

Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:45 pm   



bitrex wrote...
Quote:

As of December 19th 2018 the four year grand total
of Massachusetts state EV purchase/lease rebates is...


Hybrids don't count? How about a hybrid plugin?


--
Thanks,
- Win

bitrex
Guest

Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:45 pm   



On 01/03/2019 12:52 PM, Winfield Hill wrote:
Quote:
bitrex wrote...

As of December 19th 2018 the four year grand total
of Massachusetts state EV purchase/lease rebates is...

Hybrids don't count? How about a hybrid plugin?



I don't believe regular-hybrids like e.g. the non-plug-in Prius were
ever eligible. Vehicles like the Prius Prime and Volt which are plug-in
hybrids are eligible if they were purchased prior to Dec 31, 2018.

The program has changed as of the first of the year such that rebates on
vehicles purchased after Jan 1 are only for BEV and fuel cell vehicles
with a purchase price of under $50k, here's a current list of eligible cars:

<https://mor-ev.org/eligible-vehicles>

They should've had a 50k limit from the start IMO all those Tesla
numbers from 2014, 2015, etc. were handouts to Model S and X buyers
paying at least 70k, nobody pay 70k for a car who wants to _save_ money.
I got the former max rebate of $2500 for my Volt, they got the max for a
Model S too, but now you only get $1500 for a car and $450 for a motorcycle.

Making plug-in hybrids ineligible is a bit unfair though. The Prius
Prime is a good car at a good price. The BMW i3 is a meh car for the
price they sell it for, the markup on that car is huge.

The Prius and Volt are/were simply better cars for the money than most
of the cars on that list, even though they're not strict BEVs (and the
i3 with range extender engine isn't either but it gets a pass apparently)

bitrex
Guest

Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:45 pm   



On 01/03/2019 03:52 PM, Winfield Hill wrote:
Quote:
bitrex wrote...

Winfield Hill wrote:
bitrex wrote...

As of December 19th 2018 the four year grand total
of Massachusetts state EV purchase/lease rebates is...

Hybrids don't count? How about a hybrid plugin?

I don't believe regular-hybrids like e.g. the non-plug-in Prius were
ever eligible. Vehicles like the Prius Prime and Volt which are plug-in
hybrids are eligible if they were purchased prior to Dec 31, 2018.

Ah, so my Prius Prime Plug-in purchase was counted.



If they sent you the check and it was cashed it surely was!

Winfield Hill
Guest

Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:45 pm   



bitrex wrote...
Quote:

Winfield Hill wrote:
bitrex wrote...

As of December 19th 2018 the four year grand total
of Massachusetts state EV purchase/lease rebates is...

Hybrids don't count? How about a hybrid plugin?

I don't believe regular-hybrids like e.g. the non-plug-in Prius were
ever eligible. Vehicles like the Prius Prime and Volt which are plug-in
hybrids are eligible if they were purchased prior to Dec 31, 2018.


Ah, so my Prius Prime Plug-in purchase was counted.


--
Thanks,
- Win

amdx
Guest

Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:45 am   



On 1/2/2019 10:47 PM, bitrex wrote:
Quote:

As of December 19th 2018 the four year grand total of Massachusetts
state EV purchase/lease rebates is (Dec 2014 - Dec 2018)

Tesla: 4,257
Chevrolet: 2,807
Toyota: 1,300
Ford: 806
Nissan: 767
BMW: 600
Honda: 559
Smart: 229
Chrysler: 201
Volkswagen: 200
Mitsubishi: 174
Kia: 163
Volvo: 106
Hyundai: 64
Audi: 58
Mercedes: 45
British Motor Co. :35 (?? Jaguar i-Pace?)
Zero Motors: 20 (electric motorcycles)
Cadillac: 17
Porsche: 13
Victory Motors: 2 (electric motorcycles)

and...

FIAT: 1
^^^^^^
Hahah one person bought an electric FIAT.


I'm pleasantly surprised that there are that many companies producing
electric cars. Haven't followed close enough to know that.
Do you have any country wide stats?
Mikek

bitrex
Guest

Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:45 am   



On 01/03/2019 10:23 PM, amdx wrote:
Quote:
On 1/2/2019 10:47 PM, bitrex wrote:

As of December 19th 2018 the four year grand total of Massachusetts
state EV purchase/lease rebates is (Dec 2014 - Dec 2018)

Tesla: 4,257
Chevrolet: 2,807
Toyota: 1,300
Ford: 806
Nissan: 767
BMW: 600
Honda: 559
Smart: 229
Chrysler: 201
Volkswagen: 200
Mitsubishi: 174
Kia: 163
Volvo: 106
Hyundai: 64
Audi: 58
Mercedes: 45
British Motor Co. :35 (?? Jaguar i-Pace?)
Zero Motors: 20 (electric motorcycles)
Cadillac: 17
Porsche: 13
Victory Motors: 2 (electric motorcycles)

and...

FIAT: 1
^^^^^^
Hahah one person bought an electric FIAT.

 I'm pleasantly surprised that there are that many companies producing
electric cars. Haven't followed close enough to know that.
 Do you have any country wide stats?
                                            Mikek


Probably have to check out the Wikipedias of the various models to get
exact figures for some of them, and some of the small-time players in
the game may not release regular stats. Nationwide Tesla sales should be
easy to come by,

Nationwide Chevy Volt sales will probably top out just under 300k prior
to the model being discontinued in 2019, I've owned two and they're
quite common here in the Boston area, sometimes I can't get a spot at a
four-bay public charger at the train station on weekdays there are
already four other Volts plugged in by 10 AM.

Nissan Leaf about 100k nationwide, Prius Prime plug-in about 70k. The
two (discontinued?) Ford plug-in hybrids about 50k. BMW i3 about 30k.

There's a plug-in hybrid Chrysler Pacifica minivan I'd never even heard
of it until I saw one a couple months ago. it's $40,000 but gets very
good reviews. They probably haven't sold much more than 10k of them
nationwide I expect.

Other than the Teslas that (unfairly in my estimation) scooped up many
$2500 checks from the state as a reward for buying a $70,000 car the
majority of rebates did not go to de-luxe car marques and jet-set buyers
it went to Chevrolet, Ford, Toyota and Nissan-buyers, not exactly luxury
marques.


Guest

Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:45 pm   



Don't know about the rest. I think there are more than 200,000 Leafs already.


Guest

Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:45 pm   



Actually, more than 300,000 sold, but almost 200,000 under the incentive program. Probably hitting the limit in next few months.

John Larkin
Guest

Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:45 pm   



On Fri, 4 Jan 2019 01:03:36 -0500, bitrex <user_at_example.net> wrote:

Quote:
On 01/03/2019 10:23 PM, amdx wrote:
On 1/2/2019 10:47 PM, bitrex wrote:

As of December 19th 2018 the four year grand total of Massachusetts
state EV purchase/lease rebates is (Dec 2014 - Dec 2018)

Tesla: 4,257
Chevrolet: 2,807
Toyota: 1,300
Ford: 806
Nissan: 767
BMW: 600
Honda: 559
Smart: 229
Chrysler: 201
Volkswagen: 200
Mitsubishi: 174
Kia: 163
Volvo: 106
Hyundai: 64
Audi: 58
Mercedes: 45
British Motor Co. :35 (?? Jaguar i-Pace?)
Zero Motors: 20 (electric motorcycles)
Cadillac: 17
Porsche: 13
Victory Motors: 2 (electric motorcycles)

and...

FIAT: 1
^^^^^^
Hahah one person bought an electric FIAT.

I'm pleasantly surprised that there are that many companies producing
electric cars. Haven't followed close enough to know that.
Do you have any country wide stats?
Mikek

Probably have to check out the Wikipedias of the various models to get
exact figures for some of them, and some of the small-time players in
the game may not release regular stats. Nationwide Tesla sales should be
easy to come by,

Nationwide Chevy Volt sales will probably top out just under 300k prior
to the model being discontinued in 2019, I've owned two and they're
quite common here in the Boston area, sometimes I can't get a spot at a
four-bay public charger at the train station on weekdays there are
already four other Volts plugged in by 10 AM.


Charger congestion could become a limiting turn-off for electric car
owners. Gas fillups are faster than recharges, but gas stations are
already crowded in many places; the real estate is more valuable as
apartment buildings.

It will be interesting to see if electric car sales grow over time, or
peak and dwindle off, the PT Cruiser curve.

Quote:

Nissan Leaf about 100k nationwide, Prius Prime plug-in about 70k. The
two (discontinued?) Ford plug-in hybrids about 50k. BMW i3 about 30k.

There's a plug-in hybrid Chrysler Pacifica minivan I'd never even heard
of it until I saw one a couple months ago. it's $40,000 but gets very
good reviews. They probably haven't sold much more than 10k of them
nationwide I expect.

Other than the Teslas that (unfairly in my estimation) scooped up many
$2500 checks from the state as a reward for buying a $70,000 car the
majority of rebates did not go to de-luxe car marques and jet-set buyers
it went to Chevrolet, Ford, Toyota and Nissan-buyers, not exactly luxury
marques.



People love to get stuff for free, and might over-spend on a car in
exchange for a smallish government kickback.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

lunatic fringe electronics


Guest

Sun Jan 06, 2019 3:45 am   



On Sunday, January 6, 2019 at 2:54:40 AM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:
Quote:
On Fri, 4 Jan 2019 01:03:36 -0500, bitrex <user_at_example.net> wrote:

On 01/03/2019 10:23 PM, amdx wrote:
On 1/2/2019 10:47 PM, bitrex wrote:

As of December 19th 2018 the four year grand total of Massachusetts
state EV purchase/lease rebates is (Dec 2014 - Dec 2018)

Tesla: 4,257
Chevrolet: 2,807
Toyota: 1,300
Ford: 806
Nissan: 767
BMW: 600
Honda: 559
Smart: 229
Chrysler: 201
Volkswagen: 200
Mitsubishi: 174
Kia: 163
Volvo: 106
Hyundai: 64
Audi: 58
Mercedes: 45
British Motor Co. :35 (?? Jaguar i-Pace?)
Zero Motors: 20 (electric motorcycles)
Cadillac: 17
Porsche: 13
Victory Motors: 2 (electric motorcycles)

and...

FIAT: 1
^^^^^^
Hahah one person bought an electric FIAT.

 I'm pleasantly surprised that there are that many companies producing
electric cars. Haven't followed close enough to know that.
 Do you have any country wide stats?
                                            Mikek

Probably have to check out the Wikipedias of the various models to get
exact figures for some of them, and some of the small-time players in
the game may not release regular stats. Nationwide Tesla sales should be
easy to come by,

Nationwide Chevy Volt sales will probably top out just under 300k prior
to the model being discontinued in 2019, I've owned two and they're
quite common here in the Boston area, sometimes I can't get a spot at a
four-bay public charger at the train station on weekdays there are
already four other Volts plugged in by 10 AM.

Charger congestion could become a limiting turn-off for electric car
owners. Gas fillups are faster than recharges, but gas stations are
already crowded in many places; the real estate is more valuable as
apartment buildings.


But everybody has electricity in their homes, and their garages. The average car spends 95% of its time parked, and it makes sense to charge it where it's parked, rather than having to make trip to a charging station.

Quote:
It will be interesting to see if electric car sales grow over time, or
peak and dwindle off, the PT Cruiser curve.


Electricity is cheaper than gasoline, and hybrid cars make more efficient use of gasoline than pure gas-guzzlers. The economics do favour electric cars.

Quote:
Nissan Leaf about 100k nationwide, Prius Prime plug-in about 70k. The
two (discontinued?) Ford plug-in hybrids about 50k. BMW i3 about 30k.

There's a plug-in hybrid Chrysler Pacifica minivan I'd never even heard
of it until I saw one a couple months ago. it's $40,000 but gets very
good reviews. They probably haven't sold much more than 10k of them
nationwide I expect.

Other than the Teslas that (unfairly in my estimation) scooped up many
$2500 checks from the state as a reward for buying a $70,000 car the
majority of rebates did not go to de-luxe car marques and jet-set buyers
it went to Chevrolet, Ford, Toyota and Nissan-buyers, not exactly luxury
marques.

People love to get stuff for free, and might over-spend on a car in
exchange for a smallish government kickback.


A $2,500 kickback isn't a big deal in the price of a car. At the moment buying a electric car is investing more capital now to get lower spending on getting around later. The kickback lowers the pay-off period, but not a lot.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney


Guest

Sun Jan 06, 2019 6:45 am   



On Saturday, January 5, 2019 at 8:54:27 PM UTC-5, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
Quote:
On Sunday, January 6, 2019 at 2:54:40 AM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:
On Fri, 4 Jan 2019 01:03:36 -0500, bitrex <user_at_example.net> wrote:

On 01/03/2019 10:23 PM, amdx wrote:
On 1/2/2019 10:47 PM, bitrex wrote:

As of December 19th 2018 the four year grand total of Massachusetts
state EV purchase/lease rebates is (Dec 2014 - Dec 2018)

Tesla: 4,257
Chevrolet: 2,807
Toyota: 1,300
Ford: 806
Nissan: 767
BMW: 600
Honda: 559
Smart: 229
Chrysler: 201
Volkswagen: 200
Mitsubishi: 174
Kia: 163
Volvo: 106
Hyundai: 64
Audi: 58
Mercedes: 45
British Motor Co. :35 (?? Jaguar i-Pace?)
Zero Motors: 20 (electric motorcycles)
Cadillac: 17
Porsche: 13
Victory Motors: 2 (electric motorcycles)

and...

FIAT: 1
^^^^^^
Hahah one person bought an electric FIAT.

 I'm pleasantly surprised that there are that many companies producing
electric cars. Haven't followed close enough to know that.
 Do you have any country wide stats?
                                            Mikek

Probably have to check out the Wikipedias of the various models to get
exact figures for some of them, and some of the small-time players in
the game may not release regular stats. Nationwide Tesla sales should be
easy to come by,

Nationwide Chevy Volt sales will probably top out just under 300k prior
to the model being discontinued in 2019, I've owned two and they're
quite common here in the Boston area, sometimes I can't get a spot at a
four-bay public charger at the train station on weekdays there are
already four other Volts plugged in by 10 AM.

Charger congestion could become a limiting turn-off for electric car
owners. Gas fillups are faster than recharges, but gas stations are
already crowded in many places; the real estate is more valuable as
apartment buildings.

But everybody has electricity in their homes, and their garages. The average car spends 95% of its time parked, and it makes sense to charge it where it's parked, rather than having to make trip to a charging station.


That's a great idea, often expressed as ABC, "Always Be Charging" and can work all the time except when it doesn't. Your support of it is based on a single data point and as we've discussed before this is not enough information to adequately characterize the situation.

There are two big issues, the first of which is travel. Tesla built a Supercharger network to support travel. With an EPA range of 300 miles there needs to be chargers along the highways enough that the range can be properly utilized. There is a location in Quartzsite, AZ with only 8 chargers for many miles. It has become a recurring congestion point. I'm sure Tesla will resolve the issue sometime soon, but with the increased sales from the model 3 this will happen in other locations as well.

The other issue is that many locations simply don't have facilities and there is no money to add them. L2 chargers are all that is needed for long term parking (home and work are the most useful). But many home locations simply don't have facilities to support this and it can be very expensive to add them. Even though they are just 240 volt circuits someone has to pay for the electricity so they need to be connected to the appropriate meter and then run to an appropriate parking space.

For the vast majority of people charging at home will deal with 90% of their needs. This is the charging method that is getting little attention, especially from people like Larkin.


Quote:
It will be interesting to see if electric car sales grow over time, or
peak and dwindle off, the PT Cruiser curve.

Electricity is cheaper than gasoline, and hybrid cars make more efficient use of gasoline than pure gas-guzzlers. The economics do favour electric cars.


At the moment. It won't take a huge adoption of EVs for the price of gas to plummet with the lowered demand. Likewise with the increase in demand for electricity there will be a need for intelligent control of charging to properly utilize the existing electrical infrastructure rather than building a lot of generation and transmission that aren't required.


Quote:
Nissan Leaf about 100k nationwide, Prius Prime plug-in about 70k. The
two (discontinued?) Ford plug-in hybrids about 50k. BMW i3 about 30k.

There's a plug-in hybrid Chrysler Pacifica minivan I'd never even heard
of it until I saw one a couple months ago. it's $40,000 but gets very
good reviews. They probably haven't sold much more than 10k of them
nationwide I expect.

Other than the Teslas that (unfairly in my estimation) scooped up many
$2500 checks from the state as a reward for buying a $70,000 car the
majority of rebates did not go to de-luxe car marques and jet-set buyers
it went to Chevrolet, Ford, Toyota and Nissan-buyers, not exactly luxury
marques.

People love to get stuff for free, and might over-spend on a car in
exchange for a smallish government kickback.

A $2,500 kickback isn't a big deal in the price of a car. At the moment buying a electric car is investing more capital now to get lower spending on getting around later. The kickback lowers the pay-off period, but not a lot.


You couldn't be more wrong about that. The idea of getting something for nothing can be a huge incentive. We will be able to see some live data on this now that Tesla's tax credit has been cut in half.

Rick C.

- Get 6 months of free supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209


Guest

Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:45 am   



On Sunday, January 6, 2019 at 4:11:02 PM UTC+11, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
Quote:
On Saturday, January 5, 2019 at 8:54:27 PM UTC-5, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, January 6, 2019 at 2:54:40 AM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:
On Fri, 4 Jan 2019 01:03:36 -0500, bitrex <user_at_example.net> wrote:

On 01/03/2019 10:23 PM, amdx wrote:
On 1/2/2019 10:47 PM, bitrex wrote:

As of December 19th 2018 the four year grand total of Massachusetts
state EV purchase/lease rebates is (Dec 2014 - Dec 2018)

Tesla: 4,257
Chevrolet: 2,807
Toyota: 1,300
Ford: 806
Nissan: 767
BMW: 600
Honda: 559
Smart: 229
Chrysler: 201
Volkswagen: 200
Mitsubishi: 174
Kia: 163
Volvo: 106
Hyundai: 64
Audi: 58
Mercedes: 45
British Motor Co. :35 (?? Jaguar i-Pace?)
Zero Motors: 20 (electric motorcycles)
Cadillac: 17
Porsche: 13
Victory Motors: 2 (electric motorcycles)

and...

FIAT: 1
^^^^^^
Hahah one person bought an electric FIAT.

 I'm pleasantly surprised that there are that many companies producing
electric cars. Haven't followed close enough to know that.
 Do you have any country wide stats?
                                            Mikek

Probably have to check out the Wikipedias of the various models to get
exact figures for some of them, and some of the small-time players in
the game may not release regular stats. Nationwide Tesla sales should be
easy to come by,

Nationwide Chevy Volt sales will probably top out just under 300k prior
to the model being discontinued in 2019, I've owned two and they're
quite common here in the Boston area, sometimes I can't get a spot at a
four-bay public charger at the train station on weekdays there are
already four other Volts plugged in by 10 AM.

Charger congestion could become a limiting turn-off for electric car
owners. Gas fillups are faster than recharges, but gas stations are
already crowded in many places; the real estate is more valuable as
apartment buildings.

But everybody has electricity in their homes, and their garages. The average car spends 95% of its time parked, and it makes sense to charge it where it's parked, rather than having to make trip to a charging station.

That's a great idea, often expressed as ABC, "Always Be Charging" and can work all the time except when it doesn't. Your support of it is based on a single data point and as we've discussed before this is not enough information to adequately characterize the situation.


Which "single data point" would that be?

You don't like the whole idea, but that makes you a single data point.

Quote:
There are two big issues, the first of which is travel. Tesla built a Supercharger network to support travel. With an EPA range of 300 miles there needs to be chargers along the highways enough that the range can be properly utilized. There is a location in Quartzsite, AZ with only 8 chargers for many miles. It has become a recurring congestion point. I'm sure Tesla will resolve the issue sometime soon, but with the increased sales from the model 3 this will happen in other locations as well.

The other issue is that many locations simply don't have facilities and there is no money to add them. L2 chargers are all that is needed for long term parking (home and work are the most useful). But many home locations simply don't have facilities to support this and it can be very expensive to add them.


For some undefined value of "very expensive". It's just another power point..

> Even though they are just 240 volt circuits someone has to pay for the electricity so they need to be connected to the appropriate meter and then run to an appropriate parking space.

The current drawn has to be metered - which isn't a big deal - and even parking meters can now recognise regular cash cards.

> For the vast majority of people charging at home will deal with 90% of their needs. This is the charging method that is getting little attention, especially from people like Larkin.

John Larkin gets his thinking from denialist web sites, which are set up by people who want to keeping making money out of selling gasoline.

Quote:
It will be interesting to see if electric car sales grow over time, or
peak and dwindle off, the PT Cruiser curve.

Electricity is cheaper than gasoline, and hybrid cars make more efficient use of gasoline than pure gas-guzzlers. The economics do favour electric cars.

At the moment. It won't take a huge adoption of EVs for the price of gas to plummet with the lowered demand.


This does assume that oil is only used fuel cars in first world countries.

Whenever the price of oil declines, the oil-producing countries negotiate reduced production to get it back up again.

> Likewise with the increase in demand for electricity there will be a need for intelligent control of charging to properly utilize the existing electrical infrastructure rather than building a lot of generation and transmission that aren't required.

100% electric cars in the US would require a 30% increase in the total power generated to keep them charged.

If the cars mostly got charged overnight, when the existing transmission network is lightly loaded, this shouldn't require any extra transmission capacity (not that the people who build it and charge for it are likely to admit this).

Quote:
Nissan Leaf about 100k nationwide, Prius Prime plug-in about 70k. The
two (discontinued?) Ford plug-in hybrids about 50k. BMW i3 about 30k..

There's a plug-in hybrid Chrysler Pacifica minivan I'd never even heard
of it until I saw one a couple months ago. it's $40,000 but gets very
good reviews. They probably haven't sold much more than 10k of them
nationwide I expect.

Other than the Teslas that (unfairly in my estimation) scooped up many
$2500 checks from the state as a reward for buying a $70,000 car the
majority of rebates did not go to de-luxe car marques and jet-set buyers
it went to Chevrolet, Ford, Toyota and Nissan-buyers, not exactly luxury
marques.

People love to get stuff for free, and might over-spend on a car in
exchange for a smallish government kickback.

A $2,500 kickback isn't a big deal in the price of a car. At the moment buying a electric car is investing more capital now to get lower spending on getting around later. The kickback lowers the pay-off period, but not a lot.

You couldn't be more wrong about that.


And your evidence fro this claim is?

> The idea of getting something for nothing can be a huge incentive.

Right up to the point where it is realised that you have to spend twenty times more than the kickback to get it "for nothing".

> We will be able to see some live data on this now that Tesla's tax credit has been cut in half.

So evidence is going to exist, but nothing you can find at the moment.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney


Guest

Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:45 am   



On Sun, 6 Jan 2019 00:17:16 -0800 (PST), bill.sloman_at_ieee.org wrote:

Quote:

Likewise with the increase in demand for electricity there will be a need for intelligent control of charging to properly utilize the existing electrical infrastructure rather than building a lot of generation and transmission that aren't required.

100% electric cars in the US would require a 30% increase in the total power generated to keep them charged.

If the cars mostly got charged overnight, when the existing transmission network is lightly loaded, this shouldn't require any extra transmission capacity (not that the people who build it and charge for it are likely to admit this).


Limiting charging to nights only means that solar power for charging
could't be used ?


Guest

Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:45 am   



On Sunday, January 6, 2019 at 3:17:20 AM UTC-5, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
Quote:
On Sunday, January 6, 2019 at 4:11:02 PM UTC+11, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
On Saturday, January 5, 2019 at 8:54:27 PM UTC-5, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
On Sunday, January 6, 2019 at 2:54:40 AM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:
On Fri, 4 Jan 2019 01:03:36 -0500, bitrex <user_at_example.net> wrote:

On 01/03/2019 10:23 PM, amdx wrote:
On 1/2/2019 10:47 PM, bitrex wrote:

As of December 19th 2018 the four year grand total of Massachusetts
state EV purchase/lease rebates is (Dec 2014 - Dec 2018)

Tesla: 4,257
Chevrolet: 2,807
Toyota: 1,300
Ford: 806
Nissan: 767
BMW: 600
Honda: 559
Smart: 229
Chrysler: 201
Volkswagen: 200
Mitsubishi: 174
Kia: 163
Volvo: 106
Hyundai: 64
Audi: 58
Mercedes: 45
British Motor Co. :35 (?? Jaguar i-Pace?)
Zero Motors: 20 (electric motorcycles)
Cadillac: 17
Porsche: 13
Victory Motors: 2 (electric motorcycles)

and...

FIAT: 1
^^^^^^
Hahah one person bought an electric FIAT.

 I'm pleasantly surprised that there are that many companies producing
electric cars. Haven't followed close enough to know that.
 Do you have any country wide stats?
                                            Mikek

Probably have to check out the Wikipedias of the various models to get
exact figures for some of them, and some of the small-time players in
the game may not release regular stats. Nationwide Tesla sales should be
easy to come by,

Nationwide Chevy Volt sales will probably top out just under 300k prior
to the model being discontinued in 2019, I've owned two and they're
quite common here in the Boston area, sometimes I can't get a spot at a
four-bay public charger at the train station on weekdays there are
already four other Volts plugged in by 10 AM.

Charger congestion could become a limiting turn-off for electric car
owners. Gas fillups are faster than recharges, but gas stations are
already crowded in many places; the real estate is more valuable as
apartment buildings.

But everybody has electricity in their homes, and their garages. The average car spends 95% of its time parked, and it makes sense to charge it where it's parked, rather than having to make trip to a charging station.

That's a great idea, often expressed as ABC, "Always Be Charging" and can work all the time except when it doesn't. Your support of it is based on a single data point and as we've discussed before this is not enough information to adequately characterize the situation.

Which "single data point" would that be?

You don't like the whole idea, but that makes you a single data point.


You know exactly what I am talking about, but you like to turn to personal attacks when you don't have a valid argument. Your 95% number seems to be the be-all factoid that justifies so much of your thinking regarding EVs. Unfortunately there is a *lot* of information that single datum hides.


Quote:
There are two big issues, the first of which is travel. Tesla built a Supercharger network to support travel. With an EPA range of 300 miles there needs to be chargers along the highways enough that the range can be properly utilized. There is a location in Quartzsite, AZ with only 8 chargers for many miles. It has become a recurring congestion point. I'm sure Tesla will resolve the issue sometime soon, but with the increased sales from the model 3 this will happen in other locations as well.

The other issue is that many locations simply don't have facilities and there is no money to add them. L2 chargers are all that is needed for long term parking (home and work are the most useful). But many home locations simply don't have facilities to support this and it can be very expensive to add them.

For some undefined value of "very expensive". It's just another power point.


One example I know of a person was quoted $8,000 to install a 240 volt outlet by her parking space in the garage of the apartment building in CA. CA has a law that says the apartment owners have to accommodate her needs, but at her expense. They seem to be cooperating with her, but the work involved is not like adding a 20 foot wire and outlet in your garage.

There are other issues involved in such situations. One that would concern me is vandalism. Because they are new I would expect some percentage of them to be damaged or the cables stolen for the copper inside. But then I'm not an apartment type of person.

$8,000 on top of a $35,000 car is a bit rich for a lot of people. So charging at fast chargers is a better option for them just like they don't have their own wells or grow their own food.


Quote:
Even though they are just 240 volt circuits someone has to pay for the electricity so they need to be connected to the appropriate meter and then run to an appropriate parking space.

The current drawn has to be metered - which isn't a big deal - and even parking meters can now recognise regular cash cards.


Yep, some day they will happen. I recall paying $2 an hour to park in Bethesda, MD (a restaurant Mecca). It would be nice to get something for that money. But those meters don't have power. Someone would need to pay for installing chargers at each meter. That's a *lot* of money to cough up even if it makes money in the end. It won't happen overnight and in the mean time there aren't good places to charge in general, other than at the fast chargers or at home if possible.


Quote:
For the vast majority of people charging at home will deal with 90% of their needs. This is the charging method that is getting little attention, especially from people like Larkin.

John Larkin gets his thinking from denialist web sites, which are set up by people who want to keeping making money out of selling gasoline.


I know. He seems to have a particular bug up his ass about EVs. Even if there were no environmental advantage to them at all (which some people will claim) they are pretty awesome vehicles in their own right. One of their greatest advantages is the acceleration. Merging into traffic is a breeze. While on the entrance ramp at 30 I can literally punch the accelerator as a car is going by and my speed is matched in two seconds as I merge in behind. In fact, I have to be very careful to not overdo it and end up beside the other car. lol

The quiet is amazing too. No roar of the engine. I can actually listen to music and enjoy it almost like being in my living room! Better actually as my stereo is rather old and not as good as the sound system in the car.


Quote:
It will be interesting to see if electric car sales grow over time, or
peak and dwindle off, the PT Cruiser curve.

Electricity is cheaper than gasoline, and hybrid cars make more efficient use of gasoline than pure gas-guzzlers. The economics do favour electric cars.

At the moment. It won't take a huge adoption of EVs for the price of gas to plummet with the lowered demand.

This does assume that oil is only used fuel cars in first world countries..


Not sure what this is saying. The grammar seems to have been mucked by a typo.


> Whenever the price of oil declines, the oil-producing countries negotiate reduced production to get it back up again.

Doesn't matter. The reduction will be an ongoing thing and while negotiating as prices are rising is easy, negotiating as prices are falling is not so easy. Mostly this will be driven by pain of lower net profits and hard to make up. Essentially it will keep the oil producing nations in a constant pain for some time.


Quote:
Likewise with the increase in demand for electricity there will be a need for intelligent control of charging to properly utilize the existing electrical infrastructure rather than building a lot of generation and transmission that aren't required.

100% electric cars in the US would require a 30% increase in the total power generated to keep them charged.


In isolation not a terribly relevant fact.


> If the cars mostly got charged overnight, when the existing transmission network is lightly loaded, this shouldn't require any extra transmission capacity (not that the people who build it and charge for it are likely to admit this).

Yeah, there will be the FUD of the power companies negotiating for higher rates, but the bottom line for generation and transmission is that they are now competitive and this may finally pay off for the consumer. We don't pay anyone to build generation or transmission infrastructure... or do we? There is presently a bit of a scandal in South Carolina where the power company and several other outfits botched the construction of a nuke plant. The consumers have been paying higher rates for some time to pay for the construction and it has now failed and will produce no power ever. Dominion (a VA based utility) is buying the SC utility if I am reading the articles correctly and seem to want to push all new costs of this failed plant to the consumers as well. It's something over $1,000 per household. I don't follow why the local power companies get to push any costs to the consumers when generation and transmission are supposed to be separate now.


Quote:
Nissan Leaf about 100k nationwide, Prius Prime plug-in about 70k. The
two (discontinued?) Ford plug-in hybrids about 50k. BMW i3 about 30k.

There's a plug-in hybrid Chrysler Pacifica minivan I'd never even heard
of it until I saw one a couple months ago. it's $40,000 but gets very
good reviews. They probably haven't sold much more than 10k of them
nationwide I expect.

Other than the Teslas that (unfairly in my estimation) scooped up many
$2500 checks from the state as a reward for buying a $70,000 car the
majority of rebates did not go to de-luxe car marques and jet-set buyers
it went to Chevrolet, Ford, Toyota and Nissan-buyers, not exactly luxury
marques.

People love to get stuff for free, and might over-spend on a car in
exchange for a smallish government kickback.

A $2,500 kickback isn't a big deal in the price of a car. At the moment buying a electric car is investing more capital now to get lower spending on getting around later. The kickback lowers the pay-off period, but not a lot.

You couldn't be more wrong about that.

And your evidence fro this claim is?


How about the fact that Tesla has lowered the price of their cars by $2,000 to help offset the $3,500 loss in EV tax credits? Obviously Tesla thinks it is a big deal. The stock analysts also seem to think it is a big deal as well.

What is your evidence to support your claim? I don't know anyone who had done a "pay-off period" analysis on the lower fuel costs. I think we are still in the era of buying EVs because they are "good for the environment" for the most part, or just because they are cool or because they are very nice cars with powerful engines. I haven't met any owners who even care about the running costs except for the one guy who only charges his Bolt at free chargers. He actually cares about saving the $6 a day.


Quote:
The idea of getting something for nothing can be a huge incentive.

Right up to the point where it is realised that you have to spend twenty times more than the kickback to get it "for nothing".


Huh? People buy cars all the time. They are essential for most. Just yesterday I was talking to a lady who hates her new car because the seats are not comfortable. She paid in the mid $30s for it. If Tesla had their $35,000 car she could have bought that. I think she wouldn't mind paying $40,000, but the husband was against it. Another two or three thousand rebate might have changed his mind.


Quote:
We will be able to see some live data on this now that Tesla's tax credit has been cut in half.

So evidence is going to exist, but nothing you can find at the moment.


Yes, we will find evidence to prove or disprove your theory.


Rick C.

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