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david eather
Guest

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:45 am   



I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running around with
signs say corona virus was "fake news". How can that be with mass graves
being dug and filled in New York 40 thousand people dead in the US.

I get the point that 40,000 is just the same as a years deaths due to
car accidents. As a kid I used to be amazed at Australia's yearly death
toll on the roads (and people still drive!). But the various governments
have worked to make rods safer, cars safer etc and now I just shrug my
shoulders "meh, death toll used to be much higher"

Anyway back to point I did some maths on corona virus using John Hopkins
data.

This might be a few days old.

USA has 735 thousand confirmed cases of corona virus and 33.9 thousand
deaths. Those figures are fairly sold. Some cases would not have been
reported and people dying of pneumonia being untested for covid19
somewhat cancelling unreported cases out. And EXACT, perfect value won't
be much different to those here.

So the death toll is

(1) 4.69%

which is the situation with some hospitals over-stretched and other OK.
Thankfully it is not like Spain or Italy at closer to 15%.

Now, if you do nothing, the only thing to prevent the spread is "herd
immunity" which occurs when an infected person can (probability) only
pass the bug on to less that one person because every one else has
either had it and have antibodies or have been vaccinated and so also
have antibodies. Now the question is how many people is that?

The lowest figure I have for the R (how many people it will spread to)
of this virus is 2.5 and the highest is 5. The crude way to find out
what percentage of the population will get infected is (R-1)/R or with
the numbers above

(2) 60% at best case
(3) 80% at worst case

That means for the American population of 331 million between

(4) 198 million infections best case
(5) 265 million infections worst case

and this will result in (using the USA figures and assuming the
hospitals will not become overwhelmed)

(6) 9 million deaths best case
(7) 12 million deaths worse case

That's not fake news. That is counting the bodies and the sick. Makes
the road toll look like a joke.

And if overwhelmed USA could be looking at about three times that number
(using Italy's and Spain's death rate).

Potentially 27 million to 36 million deaths.

Yea, I want my rights to do whatever I like, but I suspect if I
accidentally infect someone you know and they die, you will want to sue
me and want the police to charge me with manslaughter.

And of course death is forever...

Corvid
Guest

Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:45 am   



On 04/20/2020 09:03 PM, david eather wrote:
Quote:
I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running around with
signs say corona virus was "fake news".


Don't discourage them! They're the ones we need gone by November.

John Robertson
Guest

Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:45 am   



On 2020/04/20 9:03 p.m., david eather wrote:
Quote:
I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running around with
signs say corona virus was "fake news". How can that be with mass graves
being dug and filled in New York 40 thousand people dead in the US.

I get the point that 40,000 is just the same as a years deaths due to
car accidents. As a kid I used to be amazed at Australia's yearly death
toll on the roads (and people still drive!). But the various governments
have worked to make rods safer, cars safer etc and now I just shrug my
shoulders "meh, death toll used to be much higher"

Anyway back to point I did some maths on corona virus using John Hopkins
data.

This might be a few days old.

USA has 735 thousand confirmed cases of corona virus and 33.9 thousand
deaths. Those figures are fairly sold. Some cases would not have been
reported and people dying of pneumonia being untested for covid19
somewhat cancelling unreported cases out. And EXACT, perfect value won't
be much different to those here.

So the death toll is

(1) 4.69%

which is the situation with some hospitals over-stretched and other OK.
Thankfully it is not like Spain or Italy at closer to 15%.

Now, if you do nothing, the only thing to prevent the spread is "herd
immunity" which occurs when an infected person can (probability) only
pass the bug on to less that one person because every one else has
either had it and have antibodies or have been vaccinated and so also
have antibodies.  Now the question is how many people is that?

The lowest figure I have for the R (how many people it will spread to)
of this virus is 2.5 and the highest is 5. The crude way to find out
what percentage of the population will get infected is (R-1)/R or with
the numbers above

(2) 60% at best case
(3) 80% at worst case

That means for the American population of 331 million between

(4) 198 million infections best case
(5) 265 million infections worst case

and this will result in (using the USA figures and assuming the
hospitals will not become overwhelmed)

(6) 9 million deaths best case
(7) 12 million deaths worse case

That's not fake news. That is counting the bodies and the sick. Makes
the road toll look like a joke.

And if overwhelmed USA could be looking at about three times that number
(using Italy's and Spain's death rate).

Potentially 27 million to 36 million deaths.

Yea, I want my rights to do whatever I like, but I suspect if I
accidentally infect someone you know and they die, you will want to sue
me and want the police to charge me with manslaughter.

And of course death is forever...


Thank you for presenting the data in a way that even an ardent Trumpet
could understand.

I just hope they read this.

Here in Canada we are very worried about all our friends to the south.

John :-#(#


Guest

Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:45 am   



david eather <eathDELETEer_at_tpg.com.au> wrote in news:kgunG.99262
$QJp.69292_at_fx08.am4:

Quote:
And of course death is forever...


If one takes the 'avid' from your name it spells DEATHER!

Tom Del Rosso
Guest

Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:45 am   



John Robertson wrote:
Quote:

Thank you for presenting the data in a way that even an ardent Trumpet
could understand.

I just hope they read this.

Here in Canada we are very worried about all our friends to the south.


It's largely concentrated here in NYC, and any analysis of "how badly
the US is doing" that doesn't consider that is a superficial analysis.

And here in NYC there aren't many Trump supporters, but there are a lot
of supporters of the super-corrupt Democrat mayor who said not to worry
in February, which greatly increased the national numbers so people
could blame Trump for them.

Of course the rebel types in rural states might make it spread their
way, or might not, but you're wrong to think they are doing that because
of Trump. They're doing it because they realize, on their own, that the
decision to re-open has to be made locally.

Ricky C
Guest

Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:45 am   



On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:03:32 AM UTC-4, david eather wrote:
Quote:
I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running around with
signs say corona virus was "fake news". How can that be with mass graves
being dug and filled in New York 40 thousand people dead in the US.

I get the point that 40,000 is just the same as a years deaths due to
car accidents. As a kid I used to be amazed at Australia's yearly death
toll on the roads (and people still drive!). But the various governments
have worked to make rods safer, cars safer etc and now I just shrug my
shoulders "meh, death toll used to be much higher"


One thing about car accidents is they don't discriminate for any prejudices.. They kill young, old, black, white, pretty, ugly, rich, poor all equally.. I know a family that was destroyed by two parents of three children being killed. They did manage to keep the three kids together, but they did not grow up under the best conditions. It was the only family I have ever personally seen that degree of devastation to.

Yeah, here in the US we have almost halved the number of traffic fatalities over the decades, but that's not nearly enough so we can relax. We need to continue to strive to encourage safer driving and safer highways and cars..

Even though cars are safer now, they are not safe enough.


Quote:
Anyway back to point I did some maths on corona virus using John Hopkins
data.

This might be a few days old.

USA has 735 thousand confirmed cases of corona virus and 33.9 thousand
deaths. Those figures are fairly sold. Some cases would not have been
reported and people dying of pneumonia being untested for covid19
somewhat cancelling unreported cases out. And EXACT, perfect value won't
be much different to those here.

So the death toll is

(1) 4.69%


I hope you understand this is not a solid number for a number of reasons. The two big ones are that the number of infected is off and the number of deaths is not in line with the infections. Many infections go unreported if they are mild enough to not warrant medical assistance or some claim there are infections that never result in symptoms (jury still out on that one). Then the number of deaths are reported later than infections, but earlier than recoveries. What should be compared is recoveries vs. deaths/major lasting impacts. China is the only country where the number of recoveries is a high enough percentage of infections to provide decent results with this comparison. They show around 4% death rate. But a lot of people don't believe their numbers, so we need to wait for other countries to achieve very low current infections. South Korea is at that point and their numbers of recovery to deaths is about 3%. So about the same as China. The difference may well be that they managed to flatten the curve enough to maintain effective hospitals.

Still, it is a bit early to properly analyze any of the numbers because we still know so little about the disease.


Quote:
which is the situation with some hospitals over-stretched and other OK.
Thankfully it is not like Spain or Italy at closer to 15%.

Now, if you do nothing, the only thing to prevent the spread is "herd
immunity" which occurs when an infected person can (probability) only
pass the bug on to less that one person because every one else has
either had it and have antibodies or have been vaccinated and so also
have antibodies. Now the question is how many people is that?

The lowest figure I have for the R (how many people it will spread to)
of this virus is 2.5 and the highest is 5. The crude way to find out
what percentage of the population will get infected is (R-1)/R or with
the numbers above

(2) 60% at best case
(3) 80% at worst case

That means for the American population of 331 million between

(4) 198 million infections best case
(5) 265 million infections worst case

and this will result in (using the USA figures and assuming the
hospitals will not become overwhelmed)

(6) 9 million deaths best case
(7) 12 million deaths worse case

That's not fake news. That is counting the bodies and the sick. Makes
the road toll look like a joke.


But it is based on assumptions that may not be valid. We really just don't know yet.


Quote:
And if overwhelmed USA could be looking at about three times that number
(using Italy's and Spain's death rate).

Potentially 27 million to 36 million deaths.

Yea, I want my rights to do whatever I like, but I suspect if I
accidentally infect someone you know and they die, you will want to sue
me and want the police to charge me with manslaughter.

And of course death is forever...


No, I will want to kill you and I just might. I have a lot of free time on my hands and I've actually given it a lot of thought. I think I am capable of murder given the right motivations. Then I am pretty sure everyone else is as well.

So stay away from my friends with your infection.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Ricky C
Guest

Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:45 am   



On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 2:59:13 AM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
Quote:
John Robertson wrote:

Thank you for presenting the data in a way that even an ardent Trumpet
could understand.

I just hope they read this.

Here in Canada we are very worried about all our friends to the south.

It's largely concentrated here in NYC, and any analysis of "how badly
the US is doing" that doesn't consider that is a superficial analysis.


When you say "largely" NY is about a third of the US statistics. Large, but not largely.

What worries me is the lion's share of the US is more rural and is growing infections, albeit more slowly than the major population centers. Contrary to what the deluded Larkin says, if you scan the various counties across the US, there are few with new infection rates that are actually dropping in any significant way (other than the counties around New Orleans, congrats NO!). They are mostly going up or about level. That's NOT good!!! We need to see new infections dropping like a rock and in the more rural areas where the person to person contact is naturally lower we should see new infections dropping rapidly with the various measures we are taking.

The only conclusion I can make is we, as a country, are not taking this seriously and are cheating on the isolation. A friend in Maryland with a family texted me today, "Why am I trying so hard?" when his neighbors are having parties. I told him because he wants to keep his family safe!


Quote:
And here in NYC there aren't many Trump supporters, but there are a lot
of supporters of the super-corrupt Democrat mayor who said not to worry
in February, which greatly increased the national numbers so people
could blame Trump for them.


I didn't pay close attention to NYC, but I thought the mayor wanted to shut things down and the Governor said, "No, that's my call" then shut them down a few days later. If I were the mayor and I could have, I would have shut them down and made the Governor send in the national guard or something. Fuck him!!!


Quote:
Of course the rebel types in rural states might make it spread their
way, or might not, but you're wrong to think they are doing that because
of Trump. They're doing it because they realize, on their own, that the
decision to re-open has to be made locally.


I think John is wrong about "even a Trumpet could understand". There is something fundamentally wrong with politics in the US that people don't want to know the realities of the situation. They don't care. Maybe politics has always been this way, but it seems the world is crazy anymore. I remember when Obama was President the conservatives talked like he was the devil incarnate. Now Trump is the devil incarnate. I don't know how there can be two realities so different.

There may be some truth to the problem of destroying the economy. But there is clear truth to keeping people under lock down preventing an awful lot of deaths. Larkin is the main idiot talking about how this is no worse than the flu, but that's only because we have taken the measures we have and that it is still early in the infection process. He so wants this disease to be nothing more than the flu that just as he does with AGW, he cherry picks his data to say we are on the mend when we are not even half way through this with a very uncertain future.

I'm hoping the Governors manage to open businesses in a way that does not restart the infection curve. But that will be very hard given that we have yet to find the downside of the new infections curve, much less reach new infection/death numbers that indicate it is ok to open things up. We are still seeing over 2,000 deaths per day with no indication of it dropping. Why do people think it is ok to exit the isolation yet? In fact, we still need to clamp down harder to get the new infection and current infection numbers way down like they did in China.

I get so tired of seeing idiots talk about this without understanding the devastation this disease is causing.

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209


Guest

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:45 pm   



On Mon, 20 Apr 2020 22:10:22 -0700, John Robertson <spam_at_flippers.com>
wrote:

Quote:
On 2020/04/20 9:03 p.m., david eather wrote:
I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running around with
signs say corona virus was "fake news". How can that be with mass graves
being dug and filled in New York 40 thousand people dead in the US.

I get the point that 40,000 is just the same as a years deaths due to
car accidents. As a kid I used to be amazed at Australia's yearly death
toll on the roads (and people still drive!). But the various governments
have worked to make rods safer, cars safer etc and now I just shrug my
shoulders "meh, death toll used to be much higher"

Anyway back to point I did some maths on corona virus using John Hopkins
data.

This might be a few days old.

USA has 735 thousand confirmed cases of corona virus and 33.9 thousand
deaths. Those figures are fairly sold. Some cases would not have been
reported and people dying of pneumonia being untested for covid19
somewhat cancelling unreported cases out. And EXACT, perfect value won't
be much different to those here.

So the death toll is

(1) 4.69%

which is the situation with some hospitals over-stretched and other OK.
Thankfully it is not like Spain or Italy at closer to 15%.

Now, if you do nothing, the only thing to prevent the spread is "herd
immunity" which occurs when an infected person can (probability) only
pass the bug on to less that one person because every one else has
either had it and have antibodies or have been vaccinated and so also
have antibodies. Now the question is how many people is that?

The lowest figure I have for the R (how many people it will spread to)
of this virus is 2.5 and the highest is 5. The crude way to find out
what percentage of the population will get infected is (R-1)/R or with
the numbers above

(2) 60% at best case
(3) 80% at worst case

That means for the American population of 331 million between

(4) 198 million infections best case
(5) 265 million infections worst case

and this will result in (using the USA figures and assuming the
hospitals will not become overwhelmed)

(6) 9 million deaths best case
(7) 12 million deaths worse case

That's not fake news. That is counting the bodies and the sick. Makes
the road toll look like a joke.

And if overwhelmed USA could be looking at about three times that number
(using Italy's and Spain's death rate).

Potentially 27 million to 36 million deaths.

Yea, I want my rights to do whatever I like, but I suspect if I
accidentally infect someone you know and they die, you will want to sue
me and want the police to charge me with manslaughter.

And of course death is forever...

Thank you for presenting the data in a way that even an ardent Trumpet
could understand.

I just hope they read this.

Here in Canada we are very worried about all our friends to the south.

John :-#(#


36 million deaths in the USA? The thing has peaked and is probably
declining and we might have 1/1000 of that, some confirmed by test and
some assumed.

There have been clusters of hundreds of confirmed C19 infections with
zero *symptoms*

1918 was far worse:

In the U.S., about 28% of the population of 105 million became
infected, and 500,000 to 850,000 died (0.48 to 0.81 percent of the
population).

- wiki



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard


Guest

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:45 pm   



On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:03:32 AM UTC-4, david eather wrote:
Quote:
I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running around with
signs say corona virus was "fake news". How can that be with mass graves
being dug and filled in New York 40 thousand people dead in the US.

I get the point that 40,000 is just the same as a years deaths due to
car accidents. As a kid I used to be amazed at Australia's yearly death
toll on the roads (and people still drive!). But the various governments
have worked to make rods safer, cars safer etc and now I just shrug my
shoulders "meh, death toll used to be much higher"

Anyway back to point I did some maths on corona virus using John Hopkins
data.

This might be a few days old.

USA has 735 thousand confirmed cases of corona virus and 33.9 thousand
deaths. Those figures are fairly sold. Some cases would not have been
reported and people dying of pneumonia being untested for covid19
somewhat cancelling unreported cases out. And EXACT, perfect value won't
be much different to those here.

So the death toll is

(1) 4.69%


Except you're forgetting that we now have antibody studies showing
28-to-80 people who've had the disease and recovered, for every
officially confirmed case.

Which means the correct math, AFAWCT, is
33.9k reported deaths / (28-to-80 x 735k)

Which works out to a case fatality rate of 0.06-to-0.16%. About the
same as flu.

Quote:
which is the situation with some hospitals over-stretched and other OK.
Thankfully it is not like Spain or Italy at closer to 15%.

Now, if you do nothing, the only thing to prevent the spread is "herd
immunity" which occurs when an infected person can (probability) only
pass the bug on to less that one person because every one else has
either had it and have antibodies or have been vaccinated and so also
have antibodies. Now the question is how many people is that?

The lowest figure I have for the R (how many people it will spread to)
of this virus is 2.5 and the highest is 5. The crude way to find out
what percentage of the population will get infected is (R-1)/R or with
the numbers above

(2) 60% at best case
(3) 80% at worst case

That means for the American population of 331 million between

(4) 198 million infections best case
(5) 265 million infections worst case

and this will result in (using the USA figures and assuming the
hospitals will not become overwhelmed)

(6) 9 million deaths best case
(7) 12 million deaths worse case

That's not fake news. That is counting the bodies and the sick. Makes
the road toll look like a joke.


But that *is* the fake news -- that's wildly misconstruing the empirical
data. That's incorporating all sorts of unjustified simplistic
presumptions, to extrapolate an unsupported extra-galactic conclusion.

Sure, there's a virus. It's unpleasant. It's killing unfortunate people
in a very unfortunate, awful way. But it's not Ebola.

Quote:
And if overwhelmed USA could be looking at about three times that number
(using Italy's and Spain's death rate).

Potentially 27 million to 36 million deaths.

Yea, I want my rights to do whatever I like, but I suspect if I
accidentally infect someone you know and they die, you will want to sue
me and want the police to charge me with manslaughter.

And of course death is forever...


Cheers,
James Arthur

Phil Hobbs
Guest

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:45 pm   



On 2020-04-21 04:36, Ricky C wrote:
Quote:
No, I will want to kill you and I just might. I have a lot of free
time on my hands and I've actually given it a lot of thought. I
think I am capable of murder given the right motivations. Then I am
pretty sure everyone else is as well.

So stay away from my friends with your infection.

-- Rick C.


Rick, seriously, man, you need to get professional help ASAP. That's
way over the edge.

Phil Hobbs


Guest

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:45 pm   



On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 2:59:13 AM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
Quote:
John Robertson wrote:

Thank you for presenting the data in a way that even an ardent Trumpet
could understand.

I just hope they read this.

Here in Canada we are very worried about all our friends to the south.

It's largely concentrated here in NYC, and any analysis of "how badly
the US is doing" that doesn't consider that is a superficial analysis.

And here in NYC there aren't many Trump supporters, but there are a lot
of supporters of the super-corrupt Democrat mayor who said not to worry
in February, which greatly increased the national numbers so people
could blame Trump for them.

Of course the rebel types in rural states might make it spread their
way, or might not, but you're wrong to think they are doing that because
of Trump. They're doing it because they realize, on their own, that the
decision to re-open has to be made locally.


The Powerline has an amazing graph showing cumulative cases in
America's top 25 metro areas -- it's virtually *all* in NYC/Newark.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/did-the-shutdown-of-new-york-city-fail.php

That one little patch of ground, with a fraction of the population,
accounts for 42% of the whole country's cases.

Cheers,
James Arthur

Bill Sloman
Guest

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:45 pm   



On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 1:41:40 AM UTC+10, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
Quote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 2:59:13 AM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
John Robertson wrote:

Thank you for presenting the data in a way that even an ardent Trumpet
could understand.

I just hope they read this.

Here in Canada we are very worried about all our friends to the south.

It's largely concentrated here in NYC, and any analysis of "how badly
the US is doing" that doesn't consider that is a superficial analysis.

And here in NYC there aren't many Trump supporters, but there are a lot
of supporters of the super-corrupt Democrat mayor who said not to worry
in February, which greatly increased the national numbers so people
could blame Trump for them.

Of course the rebel types in rural states might make it spread their
way, or might not, but you're wrong to think they are doing that because
of Trump. They're doing it because they realize, on their own, that the
decision to re-open has to be made locally.

The Powerline has an amazing graph showing cumulative cases in
America's top 25 metro areas -- it's virtually *all* in NYC/Newark.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/did-the-shutdown-of-new-york-city-fail.php

That one little patch of ground, with a fraction of the population,
accounts for 42% of the whole country's cases.


So far. It's been enough to frighten them into modifying their behaviour enough to keep the new cases steady at a bit under 30,000 per day.

The rest of the country is more relaxed, which probably means that they they haven't, and will start generating enough new cases to be noticeable any time now.

Jamea Arthur and John Larkin are in California, which has a tenth of the number of Covid-19 cases per million as New York, and probably not in their back yards either, and they are ever so optimistic about the way the epidemic is progressing.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney


Guest

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:45 pm   



On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 08:35:59 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat_at_yahoo.com
wrote:

Quote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:03:32 AM UTC-4, david eather wrote:
I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running around with
signs say corona virus was "fake news". How can that be with mass graves
being dug and filled in New York 40 thousand people dead in the US.

I get the point that 40,000 is just the same as a years deaths due to
car accidents. As a kid I used to be amazed at Australia's yearly death
toll on the roads (and people still drive!). But the various governments
have worked to make rods safer, cars safer etc and now I just shrug my
shoulders "meh, death toll used to be much higher"

Anyway back to point I did some maths on corona virus using John Hopkins
data.

This might be a few days old.

USA has 735 thousand confirmed cases of corona virus and 33.9 thousand
deaths. Those figures are fairly sold. Some cases would not have been
reported and people dying of pneumonia being untested for covid19
somewhat cancelling unreported cases out. And EXACT, perfect value won't
be much different to those here.

So the death toll is

(1) 4.69%

Except you're forgetting that we now have antibody studies showing
28-to-80 people who've had the disease and recovered, for every
officially confirmed case.

Which means the correct math, AFAWCT, is
33.9k reported deaths / (28-to-80 x 735k)

Which works out to a case fatality rate of 0.06-to-0.16%. About the
same as flu.

which is the situation with some hospitals over-stretched and other OK.
Thankfully it is not like Spain or Italy at closer to 15%.

Now, if you do nothing, the only thing to prevent the spread is "herd
immunity" which occurs when an infected person can (probability) only
pass the bug on to less that one person because every one else has
either had it and have antibodies or have been vaccinated and so also
have antibodies. Now the question is how many people is that?

The lowest figure I have for the R (how many people it will spread to)
of this virus is 2.5 and the highest is 5. The crude way to find out
what percentage of the population will get infected is (R-1)/R or with
the numbers above

(2) 60% at best case
(3) 80% at worst case

That means for the American population of 331 million between

(4) 198 million infections best case
(5) 265 million infections worst case

and this will result in (using the USA figures and assuming the
hospitals will not become overwhelmed)

(6) 9 million deaths best case
(7) 12 million deaths worse case

That's not fake news. That is counting the bodies and the sick. Makes
the road toll look like a joke.

But that *is* the fake news -- that's wildly misconstruing the empirical
data. That's incorporating all sorts of unjustified simplistic
presumptions, to extrapolate an unsupported extra-galactic conclusion.

Sure, there's a virus. It's unpleasant. It's killing unfortunate people
in a very unfortunate, awful way. But it's not Ebola.


Some day we might have another ebola or 1918-type virus that gets out
of control and kills a few percent of humanity. It's prudent to be
prepared for that and to suspect and try to contain every new viral
infection. This one could have been contained but wasn't, but
fortunately it wasn't The Big One. That should have been obvious
months ago.

If I were in charge of everything [1], I'd cancel the dumb manned
spaceflight program, and a few other minor expenses, and put the money
into virus research and preparedness and biochemistry in general. If
this virus turns out to be a fizzle, the public reaction may well go
in the wrong direction, as the swine flu misfire did once.

[1] insert usual here


--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard


Guest

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:45 pm   



On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 08:41:30 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat_at_yahoo.com
wrote:

Quote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 2:59:13 AM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
John Robertson wrote:

Thank you for presenting the data in a way that even an ardent Trumpet
could understand.

I just hope they read this.

Here in Canada we are very worried about all our friends to the south.

It's largely concentrated here in NYC, and any analysis of "how badly
the US is doing" that doesn't consider that is a superficial analysis.

And here in NYC there aren't many Trump supporters, but there are a lot
of supporters of the super-corrupt Democrat mayor who said not to worry
in February, which greatly increased the national numbers so people
could blame Trump for them.

Of course the rebel types in rural states might make it spread their
way, or might not, but you're wrong to think they are doing that because
of Trump. They're doing it because they realize, on their own, that the
decision to re-open has to be made locally.

The Powerline has an amazing graph showing cumulative cases in
America's top 25 metro areas -- it's virtually *all* in NYC/Newark.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/did-the-shutdown-of-new-york-city-fail.php

That one little patch of ground, with a fraction of the population,
accounts for 42% of the whole country's cases.


Yikes. I never understood why so many people want to pack themselves
into New York and New Jersey. This thing may change that a little.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/21/if_half_the_countrys_deaths_were_in_montana_would_new_york_shut_down_142995.html

There have been a couple of books lately about people who moved from
New York to the south, sometimes rural south, and were shocked to find
kind, intelligent people.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard

Bill Sloman
Guest

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:45 pm   



On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 1:36:10 AM UTC+10, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
Quote:
On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:03:32 AM UTC-4, david eather wrote:
I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running around with
signs say corona virus was "fake news". How can that be with mass graves
being dug and filled in New York 40 thousand people dead in the US.

I get the point that 40,000 is just the same as a years deaths due to
car accidents. As a kid I used to be amazed at Australia's yearly death
toll on the roads (and people still drive!). But the various governments
have worked to make rods safer, cars safer etc and now I just shrug my
shoulders "meh, death toll used to be much higher"

Anyway back to point I did some maths on corona virus using John Hopkins
data.

This might be a few days old.

USA has 735 thousand confirmed cases of corona virus and 33.9 thousand
deaths. Those figures are fairly solid. Some cases would not have been
reported and people dying of pneumonia being untested for covid19
somewhat cancelling unreported cases out. And EXACT, perfect value won't
be much different to those here.

So the death toll is

(1) 4.69%

Except you're forgetting that we now have antibody studies showing
28-to-80 people who've had the disease and recovered, for every
officially confirmed case.


Two very small antibody studies which aren't even out of peer-review yet.

https://www.wired.com/story/new-covid-19-antibody-study-results-are-in-are-they-right/

There is also the point that the US still isn't testing as many people for the virus as it ought to be. 19.3% of the tests for the virus are coming back positive - it should be 5% or lower. Even Russia has tested more of it population than the US.

<snip>

Quote:
That's not fake news. That is counting the bodies and the sick. Makes
the road toll look like a joke.

But that *is* the fake news -- that's wildly misconstruing the empirical
data. That's incorporating all sorts of unjustified simplistic
presumptions, to extrapolate an unsupported extra-galactic conclusion.


James Arthur doesn't like the numbers. He's much happier to make his own extrapolations from two tiny and very dubious antibody test samples, and come to his own wildly optimistic conclusions

Quote:
Sure, there's a virus. It's unpleasant. It's killing unfortunate people
in a very unfortunate, awful way. But it's not Ebola.


Nor the Black Death. But it is clearly worse than the Spanish flu was, and if it infected similar numbers of people it would kill quite few more than the Spanish flu did.

Quote:
And if overwhelmed USA could be looking at about three times that number
(using Italy's and Spain's death rate).

Potentially 27 million to 36 million deaths.

Yea, I want my rights to do whatever I like, but I suspect if I
accidentally infect someone you know and they die, you will want to sue
me and want the police to charge me with manslaughter.

And of course death is forever...


And so is James Arthur's conviction that what a Republican president does is the best possible thing for the USA, even if that president happens to be Donald Trump.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

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