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Guest

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:45 am   



On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 6:44:41 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
Quote:
dagmargoodboat_at_yahoo.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 7:58:47 AM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
dagmargoodboat_at_yahoo.com wrote:

These are new results, still not widely disseminated and understood.

But these samplings frame the Wuhan Scourge risk for us in a way
that wasn't possible until Monday -- 600 deaths out of 7,994
confirmed cases
is one thing (LA county). But 600 out of between 221,000 and
442,000 people who actually got the Scourge -- most not realizing
they'd even had it -- is a different kettle of fish.

It boils down to a death rate that's approximately the same as flu.

Does anyone get flu without symptoms?

That's an interesting question.

A quick search on "asymptomatic flu" reveals that the answer is,
"emphatically, yes." About 3/4 have no symptoms.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2014/03/uk-flu-study-many-are-infected-few-are-sick

(original paper)
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(14)70034-7/fulltext


Then flu deaths are greatly exaggerated.


I'm not sure. The CDC webpage I read suggested that asymptomatic
cases were included in their influenza cases estimate. OTOH we
know that pneumonia victims (8th leading cause of death) aren't
routinely tested for influenza.

So, the flu fatality rate could be a lot higher.

Quote:
This doctor also said so a few days ago (watch for 2 minutes after time
index):

https://youtu.be/y2vhVpOAC7U?t=1171

But he says it's more than what that 3/4 ratio would imply because flu
deaths are worst-case estimates.


That was interesting info., particularly his comments on how awfully
sick the Chinese Red Death patients are. But when comparing case
fatality rates with influenza, I still can't tell what portion of
U.S. pneumonia and respiratory failures result from flu, but are not
credited to flu as the official cause of death.

> He writes, with other ER docs, at www.brief19.com

Thanks.

Cheers,
James Arthur

Bill Sloman
Guest

Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:45 am   



On Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 3:50:33 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
Quote:
On Wed, 22 Apr 2020 13:22:07 +1000, david eather
eathDELETEer_at_tpg.com.au> wrote:

On 22/04/2020 2:11 am, jlarkin_at_highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Tue, 21 Apr 2020 08:41:30 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat_at_yahoo.com
wrote:

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 2:59:13 AM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
John Robertson wrote:


<snip>

Quote:
Yikes. I never understood why so many people want to pack themselves
into New York and New Jersey. This thing may change that a little.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/21/if_half_the_countrys_deaths_were_in_montana_would_new_york_shut_down_142995.html

There have been a couple of books lately about people who moved from
New York to the south, sometimes rural south, and were shocked to find
kind, intelligent people.


There are publishers who make money out of publishing this sort of fiction. There are gullible twits around who are prepared to buy it, and John Larkin is one of them.

Quote:
Science teaches us to test , review and hypothesize

Or it should.


John Larkin talking about science is like a blind man talking about the visual arts.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Bill Sloman
Guest

Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:45 am   



On Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 2:14:36 AM UTC+10, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
Quote:
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 2:15:50 AM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 1:38:13 AM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 12:40:11 AM UTC-4, Ricky C wrote:

If it is done correctly the subway only needs to be shut down for a few weeks. If it isn't done correctly there's no point in doing it at all..

Trying to "reduce" the infections on the train is pretty pointless. There is no "try", there is only "do" or "not do".

They could run more trains instead of fewer, such that the riders
could maintain safe distance in sparsely-occupied cars.

(That would at least be a lot better than running fewer and fewer
trains trying to keep the riders packed like sardines.)

Or they could come up with something else, better. Not being
tyrannical, I don't presume to know what's best for them, far away.


I may not know what is "best" for them. I know they can't figure it out either, so my opinion is as good as theirs...

No, actually, your opinion isn't as good as theirs. You're not a
New Yorker. You don't live there, you don't see the problems or
the options in real-time 1/100th as well as they do.

You're denying, dismissing the entire premise, the whole revelation
behind the American miracle, this American Experiment in liberty --
the idea that ordinary people can manage their own lives better, than
central rule by busy-bodies who can't balance a budget.


As usual James Arthur does his excluded middle fallacy. The US experiment is liberty is basically an experiment in letting the well-off run the country for their own benefit. Socialists want the country run in way that leaves everybody reasonably well looked after.

Communists wanted to let a a central government make all the choices, and got kicked out of the international socialist movement in 1871 for being undemocratic, accompanied by at least one prophetic observation that it would lead to tyranny. The Soviet Union proceeded to demonstrate that it did lead to tyranny, and didn't deliver the promised quality of life for the people who weren't members of the party.

Democratic socialism, as practiced in place like Scandinavia works rather better than US style capitalism - which hasn't stopped Sweden from making a rather bad choice in it's approach to dealing with the Covid-19 epidemic.

Not as bad as the US choice, but they could clearly have done better (as the rest of Scandinavia has).

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney


Guest

Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:45 am   



On Wed, 22 Apr 2020 10:43:42 -0700, John Robertson <spam_at_flippers.com>
wrote:

Quote:
On 2020/04/22 4:52 a.m., Tom Del Rosso wrote:
dagmargoodboat_at_yahoo.com wrote:

These are new results, still not widely disseminated and understood.

But these samplings frame the Wuhan Scourge risk for us in a way that
wasn't possible until Monday -- 600 deaths out of 7,994 confirmed
cases
is one thing (LA county). But 600 out of between 221,000 and 442,000
people who actually got the Scourge -- most not realizing they'd even
had it -- is a different kettle of fish.

It boils down to a death rate that's approximately the same as flu.

Does anyone get flu without symptoms?




All those people who say they never get sick, might they be asymptomatic
and/or have a better immune system? Someone should study them if they
aren't already...

John :-#)#


I never seem to get colds or flu, and I don't get flu shots. But if I
have the opportunity to get the C19 antibody test, I'll do it. Maybe I
have had it.

Anybody here who gets tested, let us know.



--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard


Guest

Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:45 am   



On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:03:32 AM UTC-4, david eather wrote:
Quote:
I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running around with
signs say corona virus was "fake news". How can that be with mass graves
being dug and filled in New York 40 thousand people dead in the US.

I get the point that 40,000 is just the same as a years deaths due to
car accidents. As a kid I used to be amazed at Australia's yearly death
toll on the roads (and people still drive!). But the various governments
have worked to make rods safer, cars safer etc and now I just shrug my
shoulders "meh, death toll used to be much higher"

Anyway back to point I did some maths on corona virus using John Hopkins
data.

This might be a few days old.

USA has 735 thousand confirmed cases of corona virus and 33.9 thousand
deaths. Those figures are fairly sold. Some cases would not have been
reported and people dying of pneumonia being untested for covid19
somewhat cancelling unreported cases out. And EXACT, perfect value won't
be much different to those here.

So the death toll is

(1) 4.69%

which is the situation with some hospitals over-stretched and other OK.
Thankfully it is not like Spain or Italy at closer to 15%.

Now, if you do nothing, the only thing to prevent the spread is "herd
immunity" which occurs when an infected person can (probability) only
pass the bug on to less that one person because every one else has
either had it and have antibodies or have been vaccinated and so also
have antibodies. Now the question is how many people is that?

The lowest figure I have for the R (how many people it will spread to)
of this virus is 2.5 and the highest is 5. The crude way to find out
what percentage of the population will get infected is (R-1)/R or with
the numbers above

(2) 60% at best case
(3) 80% at worst case

That means for the American population of 331 million between

(4) 198 million infections best case
(5) 265 million infections worst case

and this will result in (using the USA figures and assuming the
hospitals will not become overwhelmed)

(6) 9 million deaths best case
(7) 12 million deaths worse case

That's not fake news. That is counting the bodies and the sick. Makes
the road toll look like a joke.

And if overwhelmed USA could be looking at about three times that number
(using Italy's and Spain's death rate).

Potentially 27 million to 36 million deaths.

Yea, I want my rights to do whatever I like, but I suspect if I
accidentally infect someone you know and they die, you will want to sue
me and want the police to charge me with manslaughter.

And of course death is forever...


Ricky C
Guest

Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:45 am   



On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 7:44:48 PM UTC-4, Michael Terrell wrote:
Quote:
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 6:44:41 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
dagmargoodboat wrote:
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 7:58:47 AM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
dagmargoodboat wrote:

These are new results, still not widely disseminated and understood..

But these samplings frame the Wuhan Scourge risk for us in a way
that wasn't possible until Monday -- 600 deaths out of 7,994
confirmed cases
is one thing (LA county). But 600 out of between 221,000 and
442,000 people who actually got the Scourge -- most not realizing
they'd even had it -- is a different kettle of fish.

It boils down to a death rate that's approximately the same as flu.

Does anyone get flu without symptoms?

That's an interesting question.

A quick search on "asymptomatic flu" reveals that the answer is,
"emphatically, yes." About 3/4 have no symptoms.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2014/03/uk-flu-study-many-are-infected-few-are-sick

(original paper)
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(14)70034-7/fulltext


Then flu deaths are greatly exaggerated.

This doctor also said so a few days ago (watch for 2 minutes after time
index):

https://youtu.be/y2vhVpOAC7U?t=1171

But he says it's more than what that 3/4 ratio would imply because flu
deaths are worst-case estimates.

He writes, with other ER docs, at www.brief19.com


My county has a population of ~330,000. There are 130 confirmed cases, 20 hospitalized and three deaths. According to the statistics, the daily reports of new cases have been dropping since the 30th of last month, in spite of increased testing.


Are you in Marion county? I'm pretty sure you've said you were in Florida. 348,000 population, 130 cases, 3 deaths. But the new infections are small, all less than 10, and too noisy to say it is going down definitively, but it could be dropping a bit. I'm looking here.

https://geodacenter.github.io/covid/map.html#


Looks like it was one on the most recent day and 8 the day before which is just 1 below the max value on any day.

I think I read the Governor of GA plans to open up very shortly and Trump is advising not to, that it's too soon. I'm not disagreeing with Trump for once. But when opening the door to this disease, we need to be sure we can keep it from running amuck in our homes. GA has a bit of an outbreak in the southwest corner of the state. These counties have low populations, but the per capita numbers are as bad as NYC. Randolph has 146 confirmed cases and only a 7000 population, so over 200 per 10,000 same as the Bronx. Their per hospital bed count is 6 while the Bronx is 8. The difference is the counties around Randolph have similar per capita numbers, but NO hospitals!

I don't know if this corner of GA was really making an effort to isolate, but if they were and it is opened up, they will be hurting even worse.

Maybe the counties will maintain a lock down themselves.

--

Rick C.

---- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
---- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

david eather
Guest

Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:45 am   



On 22/04/2020 1:39 pm, Phil Hobbs wrote:
Quote:
On 2020-04-21 23:27, david eather wrote:
On 22/04/2020 11:35 am, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
Ricky C wrote:

For who knows what reason, they never shut down the subway, the
perfect inoculation facility.  I never thought to see if they had
because that would have been the first thing I closed.

The subway is essential here. The essential workers wouldn't be able to
get to Manhattan without it.  In the other boroughs lots of people don't
have cars so they couldn't even get around to buy supplies without a bus
or train.




I may be wrong, but isn't it possible to clean and sterilize air with
a HEPA filter and UV-C lighting. It would take a bit of work and is
not as safe as just shutting down, but it would allow the use of the
subway with less risk.

You've obviously never ridden a NYC subway.  At busy periods everyone is
cheek-by-jowl, inescapably breathing in what the others exhale, and
mostly holding on to shared stanchions or straps.  Good luck
disinfecting that while there are people on board.

Also there's a lot of random people coming and going at each stop, so
the opportunity for contagion is much larger than in a classroom, for
example, where it's the same dramatis personae over and over.

HEPA air filtering might helps, as it has since the airlines started
using it.  Some more attention to disinfecting cars at the ends of the
line would probably help a fair amount, but the main effect would be to
maintain social distancing by running a full schedule of mostly-empty cars.


Cheers

Phil Hobbs


Yep, never been in a NY subway. Might help if the "people load" was
reduced by a partial shut down (or a partial restart!) and as you
suggest more passenger moving capacity to thin out the herd.


Guest

Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:45 am   



Quote:
Yep, never been in a NY subway. Might help if the "people load" was
reduced by a partial shut down (or a partial restart!) and as you
suggest more passenger moving capacity to thin out the herd.


Ridership is down by 90% or so, but so is service, which is a problem. I saw an interesting study thar showed how the Red Death hotspots are concentrated along the subway lines used by 'essential workers' to go between work (largely in Manhattan) and home (the outer parts of Quens and Brooklyn). Most of those folks don't make too much money and have no other way to get there.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

Ricky C
Guest

Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:45 am   



On Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 4:06:39 AM UTC-4, pcdh...@gmail.com wrote:
Quote:
Yep, never been in a NY subway. Might help if the "people load" was
reduced by a partial shut down (or a partial restart!) and as you
suggest more passenger moving capacity to thin out the herd.

Ridership is down by 90% or so, but so is service, which is a problem. I saw an interesting study thar showed how the Red Death hotspots are concentrated along the subway lines used by 'essential workers' to go between work (largely in Manhattan) and home (the outer parts of Quens and Brooklyn). Most of those folks don't make too much money and have no other way to get there.


Considering that the subway is coincident with where virtually everyone goes it's no surprise the "Red Death hotspots" would align. It may or may not be a casual link.

I keep seeing a "Kings" on the map. That's not a borough of the city like Queens is though, right? Is that a county in NY state? Oh, it's the county that Brooklyn is in, i.e. the same thing geographically. NYC is complicated!

--

Rick C.

---+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
---+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209


Guest

Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:45 pm   



On Thu, 23 Apr 2020 01:06:34 -0700 (PDT), pcdhobbs_at_gmail.com wrote:

Quote:
Yep, never been in a NY subway. Might help if the "people load" was
reduced by a partial shut down (or a partial restart!) and as you
suggest more passenger moving capacity to thin out the herd.

Ridership is down by 90% or so, but so is service, which is a problem. I saw an interesting study thar showed how the Red Death hotspots are concentrated along the subway lines used by 'essential workers' to go between work (largely in Manhattan) and home (the outer parts of Quens and Brooklyn). Most of those folks don't make too much money and have no other way to get there.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs


Contagion must be a radical function of population density.

The highest contact rate in lower population density places is
probably schools. Antibody studies of the brat population would be
great.





--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

Claude Bernard


Guest

Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:45 pm   



jlarkin_at_highlandsniptechnology.com wrote in
news:p0e3af5etvqgo1rsbefqe7o6inudbnudg6_at_4ax.com:

Quote:
On Thu, 23 Apr 2020 01:06:34 -0700 (PDT), pcdhobbs_at_gmail.com
wrote:

Yep, never been in a NY subway. Might help if the "people load"
was reduced by a partial shut down (or a partial restart!) and as
you suggest more passenger moving capacity to thin out the herd.

Ridership is down by 90% or so, but so is service, which is a
problem. I saw an interesting study thar showed how the Red Death
hotspots are concentrated along the subway lines used by
'essential workers' to go between work (largely in Manhattan) and
home (the outer parts of Quens and Brooklyn). Most of those folks
don't make too much money and have no other way to get there.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

Contagion must be a radical function of population density.

The highest contact rate in lower population density places is
probably schools. Antibody studies of the brat population would be
great.

Not in those areas. They did not get enough of the early exposure
the main travel lines got. That is why their numbers are so low.
Wrong brats, wrong hole in the wall.

The growth between Detroit and Chicago is amazing and tells me that
it travelled with transit hubs. bus plane and train and cars.

More like a radical function of congested mingling in those dense
population centers. West Chester New York is where a lot of folks
who actually work in the city somewhere live. It was hit hard. Also
there is the biggest liquor distributor in the tri-state area there
at West Chester Distribution. Right across the street from the place
where "Life-Savers" were made for decades.

I think adults spread it more because of respiratory volumetric
displacement alone.

Michael Terrell
Guest

Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:45 am   



On Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 3:23:58 AM UTC-4, david eather wrote:
Quote:

Yep, never been in a NY subway. Might help if the "people load" was
reduced by a partial shut down (or a partial restart!) and as you
suggest more passenger moving capacity to thin out the herd.


I'll bet those subway cars are less crowded than what the Army used in the '70s to transport troops to training. They were called Cattle Cars. A tractor trailer with a few bench seats in the trailer, but most of the troops had to stand and hang onto overhead straps. Unlike a subway car, there was no open isle. You were packed so tight that you couldn't avoid contact with anyone next to you.

Tom Del Rosso
Guest

Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:45 am   



Ricky C wrote:
Quote:

I keep seeing a "Kings" on the map. That's not a borough of the city
like Queens is though, right? Is that a county in NY state? Oh,
it's the county that Brooklyn is in, i.e. the same thing
geographically. NYC is complicated!


There are 5 counties in the city. As parts of the state, they are
counties. As parts of the city, they are boroughs.

Bronx County = The Bronx
New York County = Manhattan
Queens County = Queens
Kings County = Brooklyn
Richmond County = Staten Island

Bill Sloman
Guest

Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:45 am   



On Friday, April 24, 2020 at 1:49:19 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
Quote:
On Thu, 23 Apr 2020 01:06:34 -0700 (PDT), pcdhobbs_at_gmail.com wrote:

Yep, never been in a NY subway. Might help if the "people load" was
reduced by a partial shut down (or a partial restart!) and as you
suggest more passenger moving capacity to thin out the herd.

Ridership is down by 90% or so, but so is service, which is a problem. I saw an interesting study thar showed how the Red Death hotspots are concentrated along the subway lines used by 'essential workers' to go between work (largely in Manhattan) and home (the outer parts of Quens and Brooklyn). Most of those folks don't make too much money and have no other way to get there.

Contagion must be a radical function of population density.


The Australian contact tracing people seem to think that you need to close - within 1.5 metres - of an infected person for about 15 minutes to have high probability of being infected.

Parties are the ideal environment, and other social gatherings can work almost as well. Carers looking after people in aged-care centres do seem to be able to get close enough for long enough to infect most of the people they are looking after.

If the population density is too low for people to get together for parties there will be a lot less infection, but population density is a bit to broad a measure to be all that useful.

Quote:
The highest contact rate in lower population density places is
probably schools. Antibody studies of the brat population would be
great.


The local epidemiologists are puzzled by the fact that schools don't seem to be centres of infection. For lots of infectious diseases they are spectacularly good, but it doesn't seem to happen with Covid-19. Whatever Covid-19 does to adult immune systems to slow down the immune response doesn't seem to work in kids. Kids do get sick, but not very often

https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/04/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-infographic_19.pdf

The "Cases by age Group and Sex" bar graph shows them to a factor ten less likely to get infected than adults.

There are just as many kids as there are adults in the younger age groups, so this is a real difference. The fact that there are fewer infections amongst the elderly reflects the fact that there a fewer of them to get infected in the first place.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Ricky C
Guest

Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:45 am   



On Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 11:17:54 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
Quote:
On Friday, April 24, 2020 at 1:49:19 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
On Thu, 23 Apr 2020 01:06:34 -0700 (PDT), pcdhobbs_at_gmail.com wrote:

Yep, never been in a NY subway. Might help if the "people load" was
reduced by a partial shut down (or a partial restart!) and as you
suggest more passenger moving capacity to thin out the herd.

Ridership is down by 90% or so, but so is service, which is a problem. I saw an interesting study thar showed how the Red Death hotspots are concentrated along the subway lines used by 'essential workers' to go between work (largely in Manhattan) and home (the outer parts of Quens and Brooklyn).. Most of those folks don't make too much money and have no other way to get there.

Contagion must be a radical function of population density.

The Australian contact tracing people seem to think that you need to close - within 1.5 metres - of an infected person for about 15 minutes to have high probability of being infected.


That's 5 feet which is not really different from the 6 feet they recommend here.

It seems to me the conditions of the proximity are just as important. If you are in a place where everyone is 5-6 feet from everyone else and more than one person has the virus, I think it is going to infect people. 6 feet may be fine if you are 1 on 1 with someone in a room or outside, but with lots of people... I can't see it. Once the micro droplets are in the air they move around until they come into contact with a surface... like your face.


> Parties are the ideal environment, and other social gatherings can work almost as well. Carers looking after people in aged-care centres do seem to be able to get close enough for long enough to infect most of the people they are looking after.

Exactly. People will forget to keep 5-6 feet apart but more importantly (I think) there will be lots of them increasing the odds that someone will be infected.


> If the population density is too low for people to get together for parties there will be a lot less infection, but population density is a bit to broad a measure to be all that useful.

When does population density prevent parties??? People are happy to drive miles and miles for a party.

I think I posted before that a friend is isolating his family and is not going to work. Some of his neighbors are having people over for parties. It's great for the moral, but a bad idea for the pandemic. We really, really need to stop the transmission of this disease so we can end the lockdown. There's no chance at even doing any good if we open up exposure before we've taken this disease down.

Why are we doing so poorly in fighting this disease?

--

Rick C.

--+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
--+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

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